Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure
Financial_Statement_Analysis (7)
PAT
ROE
140
7%
70
7%
Байду номын сангаас
280
14%
210
21%
70
3.5%
0
0%
Cost of finance
Cost of Equity – the return required by the
shareholders Cost of Debt – the return required by the debt providers net of corporate taxes Cost of finance for a company is usually calculated as a weighted average (weighted by market values) of the cost of equity and the cost of debt….. …..it is commonly referred to as the “WACC”
debt is not risk free) Agency costs Restrictive covenants Tax exhaustion
13
Gearing Ratio
Gearing ratio = Debt/Capital employed (%) Or Debt/Equity (%) How much debt?
15
Interest Cover
A measure of a company’s ability to meet its interest
payments = PBIT/interest payments (No. of times) Basic rule 2 = bad, 3 = minimum, 4+ = ok (the higher the better) “Debt service coverage ratio” is the same calculation but includes any repayment of principal due with the interest payments.
硕士毕业论文参考文献格式
硕士毕业论文参考文献格式[1]Merton, R. C，On the pricing of corporate debt:The risk structure of interest rates[J] Journal ofFinancel974,29.[2]Black,F.,Scholes,M.,The pricing of options and corporate liabilities.[J].Journal of PoliticalEconomy, 1973,81:637-654.[3]Joncs,Mason,Rocnfcld，Contingent claims analysis of corporate capitial[J].The Journal ofFinance,1984,39(3):611-625.[4]Lcland,H.,Toft,K.,Optimal capital structure,endogenous bankruptcy and the term structure ofcreait spreads[J].The Journal of Finance,1996,51(3):987-1019.[5]Longstaff,F.,E-Schwartz, 1995,A simple approach to valuing risky fixed and floating ratedebt[J] Journal of Finance,50:789-819.[6]Andecrson R,Sundarscan,Design valuation of debtcontracts[R].Review of financialstudies, 1996,9(1):37-68.[7]Elton，Agrawal，C.Mann,Explaining the rate spread on corporate bonds.[J] Journal ofFinance5LVI,2001,(1):247-277.[8]HuangM,Huang J,How much of the corporate-treasury yield spread is due to Credit risk.Working PaPer, Pennsylvania State University,2003.[9]Longstaff，F.A.，NIithal，S.，Neis，E.，The credit-default swap marketils credit protection pricedcorrectlyWorking Paper,University of California,Los Angeles.[10] Van Landschoot,Astrid,2004,Determinants of the euro term structure of creditspreads,European Central Bank Working Paper Series No.397.[11]Jeffery D.Amato,Maurizio Luisi,Macro Factors in the Term Structure of CreditSpreads[J].2005.[12]Dragon Yongjun Tang,Hong Yan，Macroeconomi Conditions,Firm Characteristics,and Credit Spreads[J].2005.[13]Kiyotaka N.，Makoto S.，Credit spreads on corporate bonds and the macroeconomy inJpan[J] Japanese Int. Economies,2009,23:309-331.[14]Naohiko B.,Masakazu I.,Price discovery of subordinatedcredit spreads for Japanesemega-banks:Eviidence from bond and credit default swap marketsjnt. Fin. Markets,Inst. AndMoney,2009,19,616-632.[15]Tolga Cenesi zoglu，Badye Essid.The Effect of Monetary Policy on Credit Spreads[J].2010.[16]Igor L.,Peter G.,Empirical analysis of credit spread changes of US corporate bonds, International Review of FinancialAnalysis,2012,24,12-19[17]Liang Guo,Determinants of credit spreads:The role of ambiguity and informationuncertainty,North American Journal of Economics and Finance,2013,24:279-297.[18]陆文嘉，我国信用利差与基准利率关系实证研宄[J].经济分析,2008,(10):61-64.[19]李货.中国短期融资券信用利差的实证研究[J].开放导报，2010(1):78-81.[20]李岚，杨长志.基于面板数据的中期票据信用利差研宂[J].证券市场导报，2010.(8)[21]闻芳，曾建华.我国企业短期融资信用利差的实证分析[J].商场现代化，2010，(620):180.[22]赵静，方兆本.中国公司债券信用利差决定因素：基于结构化理论的实证研究[J].管理科学与工程,2011,(3):138-1.[23]戴国强，孙新宝.我国企业债券信用利差宏观决定因素研究[J].财经研究,2010,(12).[24]李合抬,贝政新.公司债券信用利差影响因素的动态研究[J].学海,2013.1.[25]程文卫.通货膨胀对固定收益证券到期收益率和信用利差的影响:棊于中国的实证研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2009,(07):30- 35.[26]张雪苑，孙雪晴.信用价差影响因素的宏观视角分析[J].现代商贸工业,2010(23):226- 227.[27]牛新艳.短期融资券市场存在金融加速器效应吗：信用利差非对称性研宄[J].金融评论，2011,(03):79-125.[28]Beaver,William H., 1966,Financial ratios as predictors of failure[J].Journal of AccountingResearch, 1966,4:71-111.[29]Altman,Edward I，Financial ratios,discriminate analysis and the prediction of coporatebankruptcy, 1968,4:589-609.[30]Black’F.，&J.Cox,Valuing corporate securities:some effects of bond indentureprovisions Journal of Finance, 1976,31:351 -367.[31 ]Leland,H.E.,Corporate debt value,bond covenants and optimal capital structure[J]. Journal ofFinance, 1994,49:1213-1252.[32]Leland,H.E.,Toft,K.B.,Optimal capital structure,endogenous bankruptcy,and the term structureof credit Spreads[J] .Journal of Finance, 1996,51:987-1019.[33]Mella-Barral,P.，Perraudin，W., Strategic debtservice[J].Journal of Finance, 1997，52:531-556.[34]Collin-Dufresne P.，R.Goldstein,Do credit spreads reflect stationary leverage ratio[J] Journalof Finance,2001,56:1929-1958.[35]徐鑫,谌贻庆.基于SVAR模型的消费者信心与宏观经济景气关系实证研究，商业经济，2012,(17):26-27.[36] Borovshikh, Y.V. and Weber. N.C. (2010). Asymptotic distributions for aclass of generalized L—statistics. Bernoulli. 16, 1177-1190.[37] Cai, Z.W.(1992). Moderate deviations and large deviationsof generalizedL-statistics. Chinese Ann. Math. Ser. A 13，364 - 372.[38] Chen. L.H.Y.. Goldstein, L. and Shao. Q.M.(2011). Normal approximationby Stein's method. Springer. Heidelberg.[39] Chen, L.H.Y.and Shao. Q.M.(2007). Normal approximation for nonlinearstatistics using a concentration inequality approach. Bernoulli. 13，581—599.[40] Hu, H.J. and Shao, Q.M.(2013). Non-uniform Berry-Esseen bounds forweighted U-statistics and generalized L-statistics. Commun. Math. Stat13，351-367.。
CFA考试一级章节练习题精选0330-48(附详解)
CFA考试一级章节练习题精选0330-48（附详解）1、With respect to capital project, if the discount rate decrease, which of the followingabout the internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV) aremost accurate?【单选题】A.Both IRR and NPV increase.B.IRR remains unchanged and NPV increases.C.Both IRR and NPV remain unchanged.正确答案:B答案解析:IRR的定义是，使得NPV = 0时的折现率，计算时与项目的必要回报率无关。
而项目的必要回报率下降，会导致项目的净现值上升。
1、An analyst gathers the following information about two mutually exclusive projectsof a company:If the cost of capital used is 10% , the most appropriate decision for the companyis to accept:【单选题】A.Project 1 only.B.Project 2 only.C.both Project 1 and Project 2.正确答案:A答案解析:对于独立项目（independent project），如果NPV > 0，就可以接受该项目；如果NPV 0的项目中选择NPV最大的项目。
当IRR与NPV对作决策有冲突时，以NPV为准。
1、A trader buys 500 shares of a stock on margin at $36 a share using an initial leverage ratio of 1,66.The maintenance margin requirement for the position is 30%. The stock price at which the margincall will occur is closest to:【单选题】A.$25.20.B.$30.86.C.$20.57.正确答案:C答案解析:Initial equity (%) in the margin transaction=1/Leverage ratio=1/1.66=0.60;Initial equity per share at the time of purchase=$36 × 0.60=$21.60;Price (P) at which margin call occurs:Equity per share/Price per share=Maintenance margin (%)=($21.60+P-$36)/P=0.30;0.7P=$14.40;P=$20.57.CFA Level I"Market Organization and Structure," Larry HarrisSection 5.21、An analyst does research about the cost of capital and gathers the followinginformation about a company:● Current share price is $60● Current annual dividend per share is $1.50● Stable retention ratio is 40%● Historical return on equity is 12%Using the dividend discount model approach, the cost of equity is closest to:【单选题】A.7.30%B.7.42%C.9.88%正确答案:B答案解析:使用股利贴现模型（Dividend Discount Model）的计算公式：g = （return on equity）x（retention ratio），由此得：g = 12% × 0.4 = 4.8%，所以= $1.5 × （1 + 4.8%）/$60 + 4.8% = 7.42%.1、A firm is uncertain about both the number of units the market will demand and the price it will receive for them. This type of risk is best described as:【单选题】A.sales risk.B.business risk.C.operating risk.正确答案:A答案解析:“Measures of Leverage,” Pamela Peterson Drake, CFA, Raj Aggarwal, CFA, Cynthia Harrington, CFA, and Adam Kobor, CFA 2013 Modular Level I, Vol. 4, Reading 38, Section 3.1, 3.2Study Session 11-38-aDefine and explain leverage, business risk, sales risk, operating risk, and financial risk, and classify a risk, given a description.A is correct. Sales risk is associated with uncertainty with respect to total revenue, which in turn, depends on price and units sold.。
CFA一级财务考前押题及核心知识手册
FinancialReportingAnalysisCFA一级财务考前密押及核心知识手册(上)1-431. Other Information and SEC Filings开篇重要提示：没有明确说明都使用IFRS，仔细找说明；MD&A: 重大的不确定性, 站在management角度，Overview & ForecastProxy Statement●Voting●Potential interest conflict●CompensationFootnotes：●会计政策、会计估计、会计假设一般可以在Footnotes里找到；●需要Audit;●重要信息的补充说明：如折旧的年限和方法，Inventory的组成结构等；10‐K, 10‐Q, S‐1, 8‐K这些属于SEC filing文件，而Annual report指公司自己披露的年报，是面向投资者的，而不是SEC。
3-43Example以下文件哪个不属于SEC filings？（JCY原创习题）A.Form DEF‐14AB.Form S‐1C.Annual reportCorrect Answer：C●10‐K, 10‐Q, S‐1, 8‐K这些属于SEC filing文件，而Annual report指公司自己披露的年报，是面向投资者的，而不是SEC。
4-432. Audit and Audit Opinion四大Audit Opinion●Unqualified: clean●Qualified: exceptions●Adverse: material error●Disclaimer of opinion: unable to express an opinionAudit的作用: assure that financial information is presented fairly.Audit●并不能Fully assurance contain no error；●而是Reasonable assurance no material error;US GAAP, must present a comment on internal controls.（塞班斯法案）IOSCO: promoting cross‐border cooperation and uniformity in securities regulation5-43Example对于上市公司披露的财报而言，以下哪一个是IFRS下必须披露的？（JCY原创习题）A. FootnotesB.Management’s comment about future businessC.Internal control system的意见Correct answer: A●摘录自CFA协会官方教材原文：Notes comprising a summary of significantaccounting policies and other explanatory notes that disclose information requiredby IFRS and not presented elsewhere and that provide information relevant to anunderstanding of the financial statements.6-433. Accrual Basis四大权责发生制账户：会考描述或者定义●Accrued revenue: 货已发，钱未收到，但能确认收入；●Accrued expense: 货已收，还未付钱；●Unearned Revenue：预收的钱, 货还未发；●Prepaid Expense：预付的钱；Contra Account●Accounts receivable: contra account: allowance for bad debt expense, 可能会考计算●PP&E contra account: accumulated depreciation●Intangible asset: contra account: accumulated amortization●Common stock: Treasury stock7-43ExampleWhich of the following is least likely to reflect the cash movement?A.Prepaid expenseB.Unearned revenueC.Accrued expenseCorrect Answer: C●For prepaid expense, there is cash outflow; and for unearned revenue, there is cashinflow.●Accrued expense and unbilled revenue are not related to the cash movement.8-43Example以下哪一个不属于Contra Account? （JCY原创习题）A.Deprecation costB.Bad debt allowanceC.Valuation allowance for DTACorrect Answer: A●Deprecation cost属于利润表费用，而不是备抵账户，类似的案例还有Bad Debtexpense，也不属于备抵账户，Bad debt allowance才是。
高二英语金融理财单选题40题
高二英语金融理财单选题40题1.Which one is not a financial instrument?A.stockB.bondC.bookD.option答案：C。
book 不是金融工具，stock 是股票，bond 是债券，option 是期权，都属于金融工具。
2.If you want to invest in a company, you can buy its _____.A.sharesB.booksC.pensD.papers答案：A。
如果你想投资一家公司，可以买它的股票（shares）。
books 是书，pens 是笔，papers 是纸，都与投资公司无关。
3.A bond is a kind of _____.A.debt instrumentB.equity instrumentC.stationeryD.food答案：A。
债券是一种债务工具（（debt instrument）。
equity instrument 是权益工具，stationery 是文具，food 是食物。
4.Which of the following is not a characteristic of stocks?A.High riskB.Low returnC.LiquidityD.Part ownership of a company答案：B。
股票的特点通常有高风险（（High risk）、流动性（（Liquidity）以及代表对公司的部分所有权（（Part ownership of a company），而不是低回报（Low return）。
5.An option gives the holder the right to _____.A.buy or sell an assetB.read a bookC.eat an appleD.write a letter答案：A。
期权给予持有者买入或卖出一项资产的权利。
财务比率英语
财务比率英语Financial ratios are used to analyze the financial health of a company by comparing different figures from its financial statements. Some commonly used financial ratios include:1. Liquidity ratios: These ratios measure how easily a company can meet its short-term obligations. Examples of liquidity ratios include current ratio and quick ratio.2. Asset turnover ratios: These ratios measure how efficiently a company is utilizing its assets to generate revenue. Examples of asset turnover ratios include inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover.3. Debt ratios: These ratios measure a company's leverage and ability to repay debt. Examples of debt ratios include debt-to-equity ratio and interest coverage ratio.4. Profitability ratios: These ratios measure a company's ability to generate profit. Examples of profitability ratios include gross profit margin, net profit margin, and return on equity.5. Market ratios: These ratios measure a company's performance in the stock market. Examples of market ratios include price-to-earnings ratio and market-to-book ratio.By analyzing these ratios, investors and analysts can gain insight into a company's financial health and make informed decisions about investing in or working with it.。
基于财务报表的航天企业危机预警分析
对于航天企业 2.随时捕捉企业财务管理活动中各种管理漏洞、管理失误、重大风险和隐患,并采取适当措施,保持企业财务管理活动,特别是资金运动始终处于安全区域内;3.通过建立和完善预警系统,实施事前控制,减少忧虑和恐惧,为企业提供一个有安全保障的理财环境,增强企业应对风险的信心,形成坚强合力;4.实行以预警指标逐项分析排查为基础的例外管理,使决策者能从纷繁杂乱的日常事务中解脱出来,有更多的时间和精力考虑企业重大经营决策。
二、基于财务报表的危机预警分析基于财务报表综合预警分析的基础是单位真实、全面、客观的财务报表,对于航天系统成员单位财务报表的分类汇总及均值统计需要统一的会计政策及核算标准。
在进行财务报表分析时,建议增加财务同型表和比率显示器这两种有用工具。
财务同型表显示单位的资产、负债、权益以及收入、成本、费用及利润的比例关系,比率显示器综合反映各项财务比率的数据以及相对关系。
在比率显示器中按照杜邦分析体系的比率因子列示重点比率指标,而不是按照盈利、营运、偿债等一般分类比率指标结构进行列示分析。
(一)基于财务同型表的历史差异分析财务报表预警分析与一般财务报表分析的基础材料是相同的,但是由于关注的重点和倾向有所区别,其分析的出发点和思年第五期总第一路又有所不同,因此,在体系构成、报警点控制等方面差异还是比较明显一般财务报表分析重点是进行析。
比率分析包括两个方面:时(time series analysis )和横向比较分sectional analysis )。
时间序列分析是的业绩作为比较分析的基础,横向把本行业、本系统的其他同类单位比较分析的基础。
财务预警分析的是基于财务比率的时间序列分析和析,只是重点比率的选取和控制点注风险性而不是盈利性。
但是,在非常有效的财务同型表和比率显示具在预警分析中同样有效。
我们将工具,对基于财务报表的综合财务统进行分析:财务同型表,或者叫做财务(Common Size Financial Statements 特定财务报表(一般是资产负债表中所有项目都按照某一个共同基础表达。
基于逻辑回归模型的企业财务风险预警
【摘要】通过财务风险预测模型的研究，可以帮助管理层、债权人、股东等利益相关者根据上市公司财务报表、事务所等相关数据推定公司财务风险值，这对于监督企业正常运行以及维护各相关者利益有重要作用。
本文以我国2019—2021年间科创板软件与信息技术服务业的上市公司为研究对象，利用企业财务指标和非财务指标，建立了财务风险预警体系，运用因子分析法进行预测变量降低维度，并进行了数据标准化处理，最后基于逻辑回归方法构建了预测模型并检验模型的精度。
结果显示模型预测准确率为93.5%，达到了令人满意的预测效果。
【关键词】财务风险；非财务指标；逻辑回归模型一、引言软件与信息技术服务业（包括信息软件和新兴技术软件等）是新一代信息技术的灵魂，是数字经济发展的基础，是制造强国、网络强国、数字中国建设的关键支撑。
发展软件与信息技术服务业，对于加快建设现代化产业体系具有重要意义。
工业和信息化部印发了“十四五”软件与信息技术服务业发展规划，规划中显示软件与信息技术服务业规模效应显著增长，业务收入年均增长率达13.8%，全国软件著作权较5年前翻了5倍，收入超千亿企业超过10家，工业互联网平台近100个，连接设备数量超7000万台。
与此同时，我国软件与信息技术服务业高质量发展仍面临诸多挑战。
少数上市企业因为管理或操作的问题，遭遇了财务困境，甚至因为财务风险而变成ST 公司或PT 公司，严重影响了这些企业的信誉和流通值，同时也给投资者带来了巨大的恐慌和经济损失。
二、财务风险预警概述企业的财务危机是一个从量变到质变、循序渐进的过程，起初某个经营指标出现异常，逐步走向更大的危机。
全面系统地观察企业财务特点，在源头采取防控措施，才能有效避免企业进入无法挽回的境地。
因此，建立系统全面的财务预警机制尤为重要。
综合过往的财务风险预警研究发现，对财务风险预警的研究主要包括2个方面：财务风险预警方法的研究和财务风险指标的研究。
财务风险预警方法又包括定性和定量的分析方法。
关于财务比率 英文版
financial ratios1 the meaning of financial ratios financial ratio is a financial statement material as the basis,it will be two related data in the data and deduct get ratio.2 financial ratio classification financial ratio mainly includes the debt paying ability, operation ability, profit ability. Debt paying ability reflect enterprise to repay debts that are due ability, operation ability reflect enterprise use capital efficiency, profitability reflect enterprise profit ability. The above three aspects are connected. For example, profitability will affect short-term and long-term liquidity, and assets operation efficiency and can affect profitability, so financial analysis requires a combination of the ratio.3 financial ratio calculation method1) short-term debt paying ability ratio1 flow ratio = current assetsCurrent liabilitiesTwo quick ratio = quick assetsCurrent liabilities2) long-term debt paying ability ratio1 asset-liability ratio = total liabilitiesTotal assets2 equity ratio = total liabilitiesShareholders' equityThree rights multiplier = total assetsShareholders' equityThe second operation capacity index1 inventory turnover ratio = operating costsAverage inventory2 accounts receivable turnover = operating income Average accounts receivable3 the total assets turnover = operating income Average total assetsThree earnings ratio1 sales (business) net interest rate = net profit Operating income2 sales (business) gross profit rate = operating margin Operating income3 business profitability = operating profitOperating incomeCase analysisThe guarantor name shandong province zibo vermicular cast iron co., LTDTime was established on March 1, 1993 the registered address of huantai county tangshan town village tang chapter line road no. 3Registered capital of 11.3623 million yuan paid-in capital of21.3623 million yuanCharacteristics of the enterprise co., LTD., the legal representative ZhangYueChengScope of business cast iron parts, machinery processing, building engineering machinery manufacture, marketing; Construction machinery leasing; Record range import and export business.Main business coking equipment, metallurgical equipment, casting machinery, engineering machinery, smelting ironNearly three years and recent financial data short list (ten thousand yuan)Serial number of mesh 2008 2009 2010 2011 years1 total assets of 86588 98211 120281 1525611.1 flow assets of 60900 74105 89759 124339Among them: monetary fund 6742 7836 19139 33198 Notes receivable 0 0 0 0Accounts receivable 30537 44391 51931 70941 Advance payment 2329 2147 3712 4673Other receivables 11675 10585 5163 5913Inventory 9618 9147 9813 96131.2 long-term investment of 331 331 0 01.3 net value of fixed assets 25149 23572 30369 28075 1.4 construction in progress 0 0 0 01.5 intangible assets 208 202 154 147Other receivables 255 1133 1430 1317Inventory 18344 23883 22129 215131.2 long-term investment 0 0 0 01.3 net value of fixed assets 33660 39149 50710 54828 1.4 the project under construction 1605 1760 3635 84691.5 intangible assets 339 324 2449 17672 total liabilities 46193 72003 99143 1058882.1 current liabilities 45138 69003 96143 102888Among them: short term loan 20082 41672 57772 55972 Notes payable 11100 15600 29200 35200Accounts payable 4597 3521 4441 6843Deferred payment 7390 5603 2601 2710Other due 967 1215 962 7922.2 long-term loans 1055 3000 3000 30003 the owner's equity 30674 40348 54190 59568Among them: paid-in capital 2136 2136 2136 2136Capital reserve 1216 1216 1216 1216Four business income is 104886 119425 154051 44283Five operating profit 11849 16329 22381 63906 investment income 0.3 0.5 1 07 total profit of 11774 16234 22647 64668 net profit 9174 10275 13841 53789 business activities cash inflow 129392 135913 171038 4961610 business activities cash net flow 8996 6863 16986 865011 investment activity cash net flow - 6876-8813-18870-920012 financing activities cash net flow - 20764 and 11610-2993analysis1, debt paying ability indexItem mesh name called the 2008 2009 2010 in March 2011 industry average (if any)Asset liability ratio 31.67 34.84 45.08 49.83 82.90Current ratio 222.06 216.60 165.53 155.62Quick ratio 186.99 189.86 147.43 140.99 85.50The multiple of interest safeguard 8.48 7.29 5.41 6.06 1.90 For three consecutive years by the enterprise financial statements of the look, asset-liability ratio is low, the multiple of interest safeguard is higher, long-term debt paying ability is strong, flow ratio, quick action is higher, has strong short-term debt paying ability.2, operation ability indexItem mesh name called the 2008 2009 2010 in March 2011 industry average (if any)Inventory turnover ratio 15.46 16.04 17.48 4.33 7.40 Accounts receivable turnover 5.50 4.56 3.89 0.86 3.10Total assets turnover 1.90 1.85 1.72 0.37 1.10For three consecutive years by the enterprise financial statements of the look, three operation ability index are higher than the industry average, show the good operation ability. 3, profitability indexItem mesh name called the 2008 2009 2010 in March 2011 industry average (if any)EBITDA 8680 9788 10728 2375The net interest rate of the sale of 3.56 3.70 3.50 3.13 Return on equity 10.20 10.29 10.08 2.23 2.70For three consecutive years by the enterprise financial statements to see, the company operating stability, in recent years, three indexes keep in a relatively stable level, does not appear fluctuations.。
Basel III
The Effectiveness of Financial Crisis Responseby1104768In summer 2007, the credit crisis first appeared on inter-bank markets in the United States and spread to other financial sectors, causing a succession of failures of major financial institutions in summer of 2008 which led to an international stock market crisis and then consequent global recession in autumn 2008. This crisis in financial markets have caused significant damage and hardship and showed the vulnerability of the international financial system. The reason of the financial crisis lies in a number of important issues. Ineffectiveness of bank liquidity support and complexity of new financial instruments such as collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) are easy to identify. Meanwhile, inaccurate asset valuation by credit rating agencies, risk separation and lack of regulation and supervision are also need to take into account as causes of the crisis.During this tough period, international regulatory and policy makers have attempted with the assistance of national authorities to develop appropriate common regulatory response to prevent future crises arising. As a group of senior representatives of central banks and bank supervisory agencies, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision released its framework Basel III which is expected to be implemented by bank regulators worldwide. After that the concern about the effectiveness of this new international regulatory response has arisen.The reforms of Basel III consist of several new soundness regulations, such as improved capital and leverage ratios, to deal with the core causes of the crisis, such as credit accumulation, incorrect risk management and ineffective central bank liquidity support. Under Basel III, standards for capital, leverage, and liquidity are much stricter. For example, Basel III continues to have the 8 percent minimum total capital requirement, and increase standard of minimum Tier 1 capital ratio to 6 percent. By 2015, banks will have to hold more loss-absorbing common equity, equal to 4.5 percent of their assets. Ultimately in 2019, banks will be required to add 2.5 percentage conservation buffer on the top of common equity and Tier 1 capital ratios. “The various capital requirements are measured against a risk-weighted calculation of the institution‟s assets; the general principle is that the riskier the asset, the more capital the institution should be required to hold in relation to the asset” (Ennis, 2011). Moreover, the Basel Committee produces a number of new principles on risk management, corporate governance, remuneration, supervisory college supervision and cross-border bank resolution.The new capital standards of Basel III aim to raise the quality of capital in banks so that they can better deal with the risks and losses, and strengthen global capital adequacy. The Basel Committee will generate appropriate mechanisms that can secure the intended objectives without causing unnecessary market damage or market distortion with these capital ratios, ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of those mechanisms. In addition, according to Professor Walker (2011), “the creation of the conservation buffer with the tied limitations on dividend and bonus payments are intelligent and novel devices for the new conservation buffer conditions will impose an additional discipline to ensure that payments are only made from surplus profits”.However, some observers and empirical evidence recently question the effectiveness of higher minimum capital requirements in Basel III as well as other elements. Firstly, some banks threatened by the financial crisis had plenty of capital reserves, for example, United Kingdom-based Northern Rock had Tier 1 capital of more than 11 present before suffering a bank run. Many banks‟ ratios were als o not that low and would have protected them from the global market crash and subsequent recession. Therefore, improving capital reserves may not as effective as the Committee thought to prevent banks from crisis. Secondly, Robert Nowak (2011), professor of Duke University, uses regression analysis to test the effectiveness of capital and liquidity ratios as predictors of bank failures. He finds that if more minimum capital and liquidity ratios are imposed, banks might be forced to operate in a less risky way. However, not all proposed regulatory ratios seem to be effective measures to decrease bank failures. The current tier capital ratio serves as an effective regulatory tool to mitigate banking crises, while the new net stable funding ratio might be inefficient might fail to do so. Finally, there are also major shortcomings in risk management, corporate governance, and the quality of supervisors preceding the crisis. Ethical issues such as accounting manipulation, external auditors and full disclosures are widely concerned after the crisis. However, Basel III has not addressed any of these issues to generate prudent risk management mechanisms. It has no provisions on regulation of bank activities in the shadow banking sector although this sector played a major role in accentuating the crisis. It is necessary to strengthen the resilience of the banking system by supervising and regulating such activities.Except the Basel Committee, other international organizations and national governments also issue new technical and policy papers to improve regulation and supervision. The Financial Stability Forum (FSF) had issued its key documentEnhancing Market and Institutional Resilience in April 2008 and was later extended to include other countries in G20, creating the Financial Stability Board (FSB). The FSB, working along with other international institutions such as IMF and World Bank, acts as a co-ordinating organisation in terms of cross-sector technical and regulatory reform, representing the G20 leaders‟ first major international institutional innovation. Secretary of the US Treasury Tim Geithner has described it as a fourth pillar of the architecture of global economic governance (Helleiner, 2010). At the same time, a number of initiatives are taken forward in the UK, EU and US. The new UK model abolishes the Financial Services Authority, re-transfers the core supervisory function to the Bank of England through its new Prudential Regulatory Authority and allocates the non-prudential matters to a new Financial Conduct Authority. While EU takes a series of parallel initiatives to construct a new macro-prudential systemic and micro-prudential regulatory infrastructure. This involves the establishment of a European Systemic Risk Board to conduct macro-prudential and a separate European System of Financial Supervisors, including the European Banking Authority, the European Securities and Markets Authority and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, to manage micro-prudential supervision. The most impressive and significant response to the financial crisis may be the Dodd Frank Wall Street and Consumer Protection Act signed into law by the US President on 21 July 2010. This final measure has 2319 pages and will require, at least, 243 new rules, 61 studies and 22periodic reports to implement. All of these new reforms from different organizations and countries have to be welcomed and represent ambitious and farsighted programmes. However, some difficulties still remain and may only be resolved over time for there are important and useful documents in setting out and the implementation of all principals is time-consuming. Therefore, the effectiveness of these new regulatory responses is uncertain at present.In conclusion, the 2007-2009 financial crises which began in the United States and spread to other countries exposed a large number of weaknesses in the banking system and financial markets. As a result, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision developed a new set of regulations, Basel III, to alleviate the shortcomings of the previous regulations. The new Basel III is a balanced, intelligent and coherent response to the crisis, emphasising on minimum reserves, risk management, governance, incentives, supervision and resolution. Although there are various concerns about the effectiveness of this new international regulatory packagessuch as the long eight-year implementation period and the new introduced ratios and buffers, the Committee still has created a substantial and credible package of model reforms within its limited mandate and authority. Equally informed programmes are adopted in other sector areas by other international organizations and national governments such as Financial Stability Board, UK, US and EU. Each part imposes higher requirements where they consider appropriate to their own conditions. “Future crisis can only be prevented through the continued improvement of risk management, strengthened governance, the introduction of effective resolution and support facilities and the creation of new macro-prudential oversight regimes within economics”(Walker, 2011). Finally, the essential element, mentioned by Nout Wellink(2011), to achieve all these goals is cooperation and coordination among every part as a whole.BibliographyWALKER, G. (2011) …Basel III market and regulatory compromise‟, Journal of Banking Regulation: p.95–99NOWAK, R. (2011) …How Effective is Global Financial Regulation‟, Journal of Economic Literature, accessed at: /uploads/assets/NowakRobert on 08/03/2012HELLEINER, E. (2010) …The Financial Stability Board and International Standards‟, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) papers No. 1, June 2010WELLINK, N. (2011) …Basel III: a roadmap to better banking regulation and supervi sion‟, accessed at: /speeches/sp110524 on 09/03/2012ENNIS, H. and PRICE, D. (2011) …Basel III and the Continuing Evolution of Bank Capital Regulation‟, Economic Brief June 2011。
投资管理习题一
《投资分析与组合管理》课程练习一一、单选题（本大题共25小题，每小题1分，共25分）（备注——请将答案写在题目上方的答题纸上，写在其它地方不给分）current consumption (current dollars) isa. the real rate of interest.b. the pure rate of interest.c. the risk-free rate of interest.d. the nominal rate of interest.2. Which of the following is not a financial investment?a. Buying shares in a retail company.b. Borrowing money to buy a house.c. Buying a new computer system for your office.d. Depositing money in a bank.3. Which of the following describes the term ‘risk averse’?a. Being willing to take a fair gamble.b. Not willing to take on any risk.c. Choosing the less risky of two equal payoffs.d. Always choosing low risk low return investments.4. You have $1000 to invest in a bank, which has offered you 6% interestcompounded monthly. How much would you have at the end of the year if you placed $1000 in the bank?a. 1060.b. 1060.90.c. 1061.68.d. 1061.83.5. The holding period yield (HPY) is equal to the holding period return(HPR) minusa. 0.b. 1.c. 2.d. 3.6. Which of the following is not a risk in international operations?a. Government regulations.b. Manufacturing locations.c. Capital structure decision.d. Dividend decision.7. The security market line (SML)a. tells us the price of a security in the market.b. indicates the amount of unsystematic risk for a given return .c. describes the relationship between risk and return as beingpositive.d. indicates the correlation between the risk free asset and themarket.8. The Important strategic decisions that should be addressed in an investment policy statement include?a. The asset classes that are to be deemed appropriate for investmentin the target portfolio.b. The allowable range of asset mixes.c. The allowable risk level for individual securities within assetclasses.d. All of above are true statements.9. Which of the following statements regarding risk-averse investor is TRUE?a. They only care about the rate of return.b. They accept investments that are fair game.c. They only accept risk investments that offer risk premiums overthe risk-free rate.d. Both “a” and “b” are true statements.10.Liquidity isa. The ease with which an asset can be sold.b. The ability to sell an asset at or very near its fair market value.c. The degree of inflation protection an asset provides.d. Both “a” and “b” are true statements.11.The presence of risk means that:a. Investors will lose money.b. More than one outcome is possible.c. The standard deviation of the payoffs is larger than the expectedreturn.d. Terminal wealth will be less than initial wealth.12.The ______ assumes that current security prices fully reflect allpublic information.a.the weak-form EMHb.the semistrong-form EMHc.the strong-form EMHd.the full-form EMH13.Portfolio theory as described by Markowitz is most concerned with:a. The identification of unsystematic risk.b. The elimination of systematic risk.c. The effect of diversification on portfolio risk.d. None of the above is correct.14.A portfolio holding 90% of its assets in an S&P 500 index fund and10% in Treasury bills is most sensitive to:a. Systematic risk.b. Unsystematic risk.c. Interest-rate risk.d. Reinvestment risk.15.The efficient frontier of risky assets is?a. The set of portfolios that have zero standard deviation.b. The portion of the investment opportunity set that has the highestSharpe ratio.c. The portion of the investment opportunity set that representsthe highest reward-to-volatility ratio.d. Both “b” and “c” are true statements.16.Which of the following would best explain the change from a straightto a kinked capital market line?a. Reward-to-volatility increasing .b. Investors risk tolerance decreasing.c. Borrowing rate exceeding lending rate.d. None of the above is correct.17.Which of the following is TRUE about risk and return?a. The higher the nominal return, the lower the risk.b. The reward to bearing risk is measured by the standard deviation.c. An increase in the risk of an investment should, result in anincrease in the return.d. Real returns often exceed nominal returns when risk is involved.18.Beta can be viewed as a standardized measure ofa. Systematic risk.b. Unsystematic risk.c. Interest-rate risk.d. Reinvestment risk.19.The arbitrage pricing theory developed bya. Ross.b. Markowitz.c. Sharpe.d. Black.20.The three-step approach think the valuation process should bea. bottom-up.b. top-down.c. bottom-middle-up.d. None of the above is correct.21.The income earned on reinvestment of the interim interest paymentsis referred to asa. interest-on-reinvestment.b. interest-on-investment.c. interest-on-interest.d. interest-on-interest.22.The process intended to eliminate interest rate risk is referred toasa.hedger.b.diversification.c.immunization.d.portfolio.23.Switching from one industry group to another over the course of a business cycle is known asa. rotation strategy.b. active strategy.c. positive strategy.d. buy and hold strategy.24.A portfolio holding 10% of its assets in an S&P 500 index fund and90% in Treasury bills is most sensitive to:a. Systematic risk.b. Unsystematic risk.c. Interest-rate risk.d. Reinvestment risk.25.Which of the following fund has least risk?a. stock index.b. bond.c. growth.d. industry.二、判断题（本大题共25小题，每小题1分，共25分）（备注——只回答对或错，对打√，错打×，请将答案写在题目上方的答题纸上，写在其它地方不给分。
CFA考试试题精选及答案解析0523-1
CFA考试试题精选及答案解析0523-1一、CFA考试试题精选_财务报表分析试题【每日一题】CFA一级财务1：Which of the following statement is leastlikely to be correct:A. financial ratios can determinecompany’s past performance.B. financial ratios can not determinecompany’s current financial condition.C. financial ratios can not determinecompany’s creditworthiness.Solution: C【每日一题】CFA一级财务2：If ignoring taxes, a company chooses tocapitalize an expenditure related to capital assets instead of expensing it ,the company will most likely report:A. a lower operating cash flow in thatperiod..B. a lower investing cash flow in futureperiods.C. Free cash flow to the firm will stayfor the same in that period.Solution: C【每日一题】CFA一级财务3：IF IFRS applies, which one is correctabout the classificationof cash flow?A. CFO CFA.B. CFO CFO.C. CFI CFF.Solution: A【每日一题】CFA一级财务4：The CFO of a zero-coupon bond is mostlikely:A. Overstated.B. Understated.C. No change.Solution: A【每日一题】CFA一级财务5：Compared with IFRS,those prepared under U.S. GAAP generally accepted accounting principles,analysts may need to make adjustments related to:A. realized losses.B. unrealized gainsand losses for trading securities.C. unrealized gainsand losses for available-for-sale securities.Solution: C【每日一题】CFA一级财务6：Which of the following statements aboutbalance sheets is most accurate?A. Under IFRS, a classified balance sheetmust present current assets before non-current assets.B. Under IFRS, intangibles can be valuedat cost or revaluation.C. Under IFRS, a commercial real estatecompany should use a liquidity based presentation.Solution: B二、CFA考试试题精选_固定收益试题【每日一题】CFA一级固定收益1:Which of thefollowing content is in affirmative covenant?A. The company can’tsell assets that have been pledged as collateral.B. To insure andperform periodic maintenance on financed assets.C. The company can’tborrow additional money unless certain financial conditions are met.Solution: B【每日一题】CFA一级固定收益2:Which of the following statement about theshort position in a deliverable forward contract is most likely accurate?A. It has no default risk.B. It is obligated to deliver thespecified asset.C. It makes a cash payment to the long atsettlement.Solution: B【每日一题】CFA一级固定收益3:Arbitrage opportunities will exist inwhich of the following condition?A. Two identical assets or derivativessell for different prices.B. Combinations of the underlying assetand a derivative earn the risk-free rate.C. Arbitrageurs simultaneously buytakeover targets and sell takeover acquirers.Solution: A【每日一题】CFA一级固定收益4:Based on theaffirmative covenant, which of the following is most likely to be required:A. Issuer’s leverageratio constrains.B. how the proceedsof the bond issue will be used.C. The upper boundaryof issuer’s gross assets that could be sold out.Solution: B【每日一题】CFA一级固定收益5:Which of the following external credit enhancement has the least amount of third-party risk?A. letter of credit.B. surety bond.C. cash collateral account.Solution: C三、CFA考试试题精选_衍生品试题【每日一题】CFA一级衍生品1:Which of thefollowingcontent is in affirmative covenant?A. The company can’tsell assets that have been pledged as collateral.B. To insure andperform periodic maintenance on financed assets.C. The company can’tborrow additional money unless certain financial conditions are met.Solution: B【每日一题】CFA一级衍生品2:Which of the following statement about theshort position in a deliverable forward contract is most likely accurate?A. It has no default risk.B. It is obligated to deliver thespecified asset.C. It makes a cash payment to the long atsettlement.Solution: B【每日一题】CFA一级衍生品3:Arbitrage opportunities will exist inwhich of the following condition?A. Two identical assets or derivativessell for different prices.B. Combinations of the underlying assetand a derivative earn the risk-free rate.C. Arbitrageurs simultaneously buytakeover targets andsell takeover acquirers.Solution: A。
beaver翻译
Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure At the turn of the century, ratio analysis was in its embryonic state. It began with the development of a single ratio, the current ratio,^ for a single purpose—the evaluation of credit-worthiness. Today ratio analysis involves the use of several ratios by a variety of users—including credit lenders, credit-rating agencies, investors, and management.^ In spite of the ubiquity of ratios, little effort has been directed toward the formal empirical verification of their usefulness.The usefulness of ratios can only he tested with regard to some particular purpose. The purpose chosen here was the prediction of failure,since ratios are currently in widespread use as predictors of failure. This is not the only possible use of ratios but is a starting point from which to build an empirical verification of ratio analysis."Failure" is defined as the inability of a firm to pay its financial obligations as they mature. Operationally, a firm is said to have failed when any of the following events have occurred: bankruptcy, bond default,an overdrawn bank account, or nonpayment of a preferred stock dividend.3 A "financial ratio" is a quotient of two numbers, where both numbers consist of financial statement items. A third term, predictive ability,also reqiiires explanation but cannot be defined briefly. The various dimensions of predictive ability will be explored later.The emphasis upon financial ratios does not imply that ratios are the only predictors of failure. The primary concern is not with predictors of failure per se but rather with financial ratios as predictors of important events—one of which is failure of the firm. Further, the primary concern is not with the ratios as a form of presenting financial-statement data but rather with the underlying predictive ability of the financial statements themselves. The ultimate motivation is to provide an empirical verification of the usefulness (i.e., the predictive ability) of accounting data(i.e., financial statements).The study is intended to be a test of the status quo. It is based upon financial statements prepared under currently accepted reporting standards,and it employs the currently accepted form for analyzing the statements—financial ratios. The study is offered not as one of the lastendeavors in this area but as one of the first. It is designed to be a benchmark for future investigations into alternative predictors of failure, into competing forms of presenting accounting data, and into other uses for accounting data.The paper consists of five parts: (1) the sample design, (2) a comparison of means, (3) a dichotomous classification test, (4) an analysis of likelihood ratios, and (5) concluding remarks.。
制造业上市公司信用风险评估
制造业上市公司信用风险评估作者：郝佳蓓韩珂来源：《时代金融》2017年第06期【摘要】随着经济全球化的到来，金融市场内的波动相关性不断加剧，信用风险越来越成为企业经营状况的重要影响因素。
我国制造业当下面临着前所未有的危机，大量的制造业上市公司纷纷破产，其中最主要的因素就是信用危机。
所以对制造业上市公司来说，信用风险评估至关重要。
本文以我国2005年之前上市的制造业上市公司为样本，以是否ST作用信用状况的评价指标，应用主成分分析和logit模型对我国制造业上市公司的信用风险进行分析。
【关键词】制造业上市公司信用评估主成分分析 logit一、序言“中国制造”曾一度风靡全球，成本低廉。
而现在，“中国制造”正遭遇着空前的危机，越来越多的人对中国制造业的前景表示不乐观。
中国制造产业目前大多数仍停留在产业链的最低端，产品技术差，利润小，基于这种情况，市场一旦出现问题，企业就会难以为继。
另外，中国虽然被称为制造大国，但是真正拿得出手的品牌却很少。
制造业上市公司的信用风险，严重地影响到了社会上广大投资者和金融机构经营收益，信用风险已经成为市场环境中上市公司所面临的最重要的金融风险，识别和防范上市公司信用风险极为重要。
二、国内外研究现状WilliamBeaver（1966）在1968年提出了单变量预测模型。
他将79家失败企业和与其相对应的79家成功企业作为样本进行研究，结果表明，债务保障率的准确率最高，并且离被ST的时间越近，准确率越高。
Ohlson在1980年将1970到1976年间的105家破产公司和2058家非破产公司作为非配对样本，首次采用逻辑回归方法建立预警模型。
陈静（1999）将1998年之前的27对上市公司作为样本，用总资产收益率，流动比率，净资产收益率和资产负债率这四个财务指标进行研究，发现这种方法虽然有局限，但具有一定的实践意义。
张爱民、祝春山（2001）在Z评分模型的基础之上，选取80家公司，采用主成分分析方法来建立主成分预测模型，并证明主成分预测模型在上市公司财务状况预测方面能够取得较好的预测能力。
企业财务安全的辨识标志
企业财务安全的辨识标志论文导读:：本文通过对财务安全相关文献的梳理，从内部财务控制">财务控制新视角，比较分析财务安全测评指标的解释能力，提炼出财务安全的辨识标志，希望为投资者投资决策和企业加强自身财务安全管理">安全管理提供参考依据。
论文关键词：财务安全，辨识标志，内部控制一、引言< 国际金融危机">金融危机肆虐全球，从商业巨子雷曼兄弟的轰然倒下，再到行业翘楚通用申请破产保护，危机的不良影响正逐步从虚拟经济领域扩散到实体经济领域。
2009年6月，美国通用汽车为摆脱困境放下身段，正式申请破产保护； 2009年11月，迪拜财政部突然宣布，棕榈岛集团将推迟至少6个月偿付数十亿美元的债务，以便进行债务重组；2010年，国际金融危机的阴影依然存在，中国企业面临国内需求不足，二、企业财务安全企业财务安全是指在企业的财务管理过程中，企业不会因为来自企业内部和外部的财务风险">财务风险或财务困境的影响内部控制，引发严重的财务危机，造成企业的财务失败，从而保持一种可企业从面临风险到陷入危机直至破产消亡，我们关注的重点通常是风险产生后的事后处理阶段。
但纵观整个过程，风险的前一阶段，财务由安全向风险转移阶段才是更值得我们关注的重点。
通常情况下，企业财务安全隐患具有动态易变性和可逆性，及早察识财务安全隐患，并采取有效措施控制风险，就能规避三、企业财务安全构筑财务安全的防火墙，就可以在一定程度上防范财务风险，而这一切与企业内部控制密不可分。
完善而有效的内部控制，通常指企业拥有健全的内控制度，措施完善合理，并且在实际中得到了很好的执行，从而能充分实现管理目标和达到控制风险的目的论文开题报告范例。
它包括两个方面：一是内控制度本身的有效性内部控制，至少对于企业而言，通过各项指标提示企业的内部财务控制是否有效，来辨识财务安全程度，无疑是一个简便且表1 国外学者预测企业财务安研究者样本变量及模型有解或力标Fitzpatrick(1932)19家公司单个财务比率模型利股益东/Beaver (1966) 7309家经营失败和79家经营成功公司个变量，单变量判别模型金/债动率收资资债营本资6务准较Altman (1968)33家破产和33家非破产公司5个比率，Z-score模型运/产存/产税润资股益价市值债价销入资Blum(1974)115家财务失败和多元判别分析方法择流性利115家非财务失败公司变三面务"指Altman、Haldeman、Narayanan(1977)53家破产和58家正常企业7个变量，ZETA模型营/产益性息倍留益资比动率通益资比通益资比Martin (1977)58家出现财务危机的银行25个变量，Logit回归分析法资益坏营利比用业之总与产Ohlson (1980)105家破产公司，2058家非破产公司9个变量，Probit模型司(产物数对数资构本(债资产资酬来营金负短动（资总产动/资Aziz、Emanuel（1988）< 表2 国内学者预测企业财务研究者样本变量及模型具有较强解释力或预测力的指标陈静(1999)27家ST和27家非ST公司多元线性分析负债比率、净资产收益率、流动比率、营运资本/总资产、总资产周转率陈晓等(2000) 38家ST公司1260种变量组合，Logit回归负债权益比率、应收账款周转率、主营业务利润/总资产、留存收益/总资产吴世70家财务困境21个变量，盈利增长指数、资产报酬率、流49家破产公司内部控制，49家正常公司财务危机预测模型w现量农、卢贤义(2001) 公司，70家财务正常公司预警模型动比率、长期负债与股东权益比率、营运资本与总资产比和资产周转率姜秀华、孙铮(2001)42家ST和42家非ST公司Logit预测模型毛利率、其它应收款与总资产比率、短期借款与总资产的比率、股权集中系数，公司治理变量(股权集中度)章之旺(2004)60家财务困境和120家正常公司logistic 现金流量比率王克敏(2005)128家ST公司，非ST公司5个变量，logist引入公司治理、关联交易、对外担保等非财务指标吴超鹏、吴世农(2005)540家价值损害型上市公司20个变量，人工神经网络法总资产收益率、股票超额收益率、公司治理指数和投资者利益保护指数郭斌等(2006)1265个正常类到期的实际贷款样本、890个违约类样本30个指标，Logit模型贷款期限和M2增长率这两个非财务指标，具有较高的预测精度陈燕和廖冠民(2006) 104家上市公司Logit模型大股东持股比例、国有股比例、董事会规模对公司财务安全均具有显著影响钱爱民、张淑君和程幸( 由上表可以看（1）从方法来看，泰勒级数展开式、事件历史分析、遗传算法、数据包络分析等方法在最近几年相继应用于相关的研究（2）从研究的数量和指标解释力来看，财务指标结合非31家ST公司13个变量、主成份分析路基回归自由现金流量指标体系可以提前两年对公司财务危机做出较为准确的预测研究已成为主流的方向。
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bers consist of financial statement items. A third term, predictive ability, also reqiiires explanation but cannot be defined briefly. The various dimensions of predictive ability will be explored later.
The paper consists of five parts: (1) the sample design, (2) a comparison of means, (3) a dichotomous classification test, (4) an analysis of likelihood ratios, and (5) concluding remarks.
The study is intended to be a test of the status quo. It is based
upon financial statements prepared under currently accepted reporting standards, and it employs the currently accepted form for analyzing the statements—financial ratios. The study is offered not as one of the last endeavors in this area but as one of the first. It is designed to be a benchmark for future investigations into alternative predictors of failure, into competing forms of presenting accounting data, and into other uses for accounting data.
The choice of this population is admittedly a reluctant one. The probability of failure among tbis group of firms is not so high as it is
industrial firms—investedFcINaApNitCalIALrepRrAesTeIOnStingAS thPeREDcIoCnTCtrRibSutioOnPs of sev- 73 eral million investors and FcAreILdUitRoErs.
Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure
WILLIAM
II. B E A V E R
At the turn of the century, ratio analysis was in its embryonic state. It began with the development of a single ratio, the current ratio,^ for a single purpose—the evaluation of credit-worthiness. Today ratio analysis involves the use of several ratios by a variety of users—including credit lenders, credit-rating agencies, investors, and management.^ In spite of the ubiquity of ratios, little effort has been directed toward the formal empirical verification of their usefulness.
* Assistant Professor of Accounting, University of Chicago. ^ The author is deeply indebted to Harry Roberts, Professor of Statistics, University of Chicago, for his many helpful suggestions dealing with the statistical problems that were encountered in this study. ^The current ratio was cited in the literature as early as 1908: William M. Rosendale, "Credit Department Methods," Bankers' Magazine (1908), pp. 183-84. For an excellent review of the history and uses of ratios: James O. Horrigan, "An Evaluation of the Usage of Ratios in External Financial Statement Analysis" (unpublished dissertation proposal. Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1963). ^ Of the 79 failed firms studied, 59 were bankrupt; 16 involved nonpayment of preferred stock dividends; 3 were bond defaults; and 1 was an overdrawn bank account. For a more complete discussion of the various definitions of failure: Charles W. Gerstenberg, Financial Organization and Management oj Business (3rd ed., rev.; New York I Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1951), p. 569.
Selection of Failed Firms
The most difficult task of data collection was finding a
sample of failed firms for which financial statements could be obtained. After this problem was discussed with representatives of several organizations who might have access to the information, it was decБайду номын сангаасded that Moody's Industrial Manual was apparently the only source available.
Moody's Industrial Manual contains the financial-statement data for industrial, publicly owned corporations. The population excludes firms of noncorporate form, privately held corporations, and nonindustrial firms (e.g., public utilities, transportation companies, and financial institutions) . The firms in Moody's tend to be larger in terms of total assets than are noncorporate firms and privately held corporations. Strictly speaking, inferences drawn from this study apply only to firms tbat are members of the population.