经济学剩余收益模型
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Ree sa id r 1 n u Eia a n l1 r g (n R sie nr q g eu stIiu n rre v n d 0 e ) x s
2.剩余收益模型是什么？ 定义：A model that measures value added from forecasts of residual earnings is called the residual earnings model. 公式：
Earnings Dividends Book value
5
5
5
5
100
100 100
5
5
5
5
5
5
100
100
100
Residual earnings
0
0
0
0
0
______________________________________________________________________________________
Example:Valuing a Savings Account
Forecast Year ________________________________________
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Earnings withdrawn each year (full payout)
P/B ratio
P/B
公式： P / B
V
E 0
B0
P/B与剩余收益、剩余收益模型的两个驱动因 素都有密切的联系。同时，提醒投资者： Beware of paying too much for earnings!
剩余收益模型(简单)
1.什么是剩余收益？ 定义：Residual earnings is the earnings in excess of these required dollar earnings. 公式:
回报率 • terminal investment:终端投资 • going concern investment：持续投资 • withdrawl: 撤回；提款 • forecast horizon:预测期间 • fiscal years:会计年度 • share issue：发行股票 • earnings per share(EPS):每股收益 • dividends per share(DPS):每股股利 • discounted cash flow method(DCF):现金流量折现法 • continuing value（CV）: 持续价值
No withdrawals (zero payout)
Earnings Dividends Book value
5
5.25
5.51 5.79
6.08
0
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
0
0
0
0
100
105 110.25 115.76 121.55 127.63
Residual earnings
0
0
0
0
0
______________________________________________________________________________________
value=Book value+Premium =Book value +present value of expected residual earnings.
Example:Valuing a One-Period Project (1)
Investment
$400
Required return
Earnings forecast $ 48
Residualearnings1 48-(0.10x400)=8
Value Project 400 8 407.27 1.10
The project adds value
DCvFa lu14e.418040.277 A rate of return of 12 percent on the investment of $400.
Forecasts for a Savings Account with $100 invested at the end of 2000.Earning5% per year. Value = Book Value + Present Value of Residual Earnings
Chapter5 结构
P/B 简单模型
剩余收益模型 复杂模型 Equities
剩余收益模型的应用 Prijects Stategies
剩余收益模型的优点、缺点
剩余收益模型对投资者的提醒
总结
本章重要专业英文词汇
• residual earnings or residual income: 剩余收益 • residual earnings model: 剩余收益模型 • premium:溢价 • price-to-book ratio(P/B):市净率 • rate of return on common equity(ROCE): 普通股本
Accrual Accounting and Valuation: Pricing Book
Values---Residual Earnings Model
权责发生制与价值评估: 账面价值定价--剩余收益模型
Chapter5
公司在进行交易时，价格并非是账 面价值。资产负债表中的资产和负债有 的是公允价值，有的是历史成本，还有 一些则被从资产负债表中删除。这就导 致分析家们忽略了从资产负债表中删除 的价值。分析家们会问：到底在账面价 值的基础上增加多少才是固有的价值？ 每支股票在交易时基于账面价值的溢价 到底是多少？本章提出的剩余收益模型 解决了分析家们的困惑。
10%
Revenue forecast $440
Forecasted earnings $ 40
Residualearnings1 Earnings1 (Required return xInvestment0)
40 - (0.10x 400)
0
Value
400 0 1.10
DCF Valuation:
400
V 440400 1.10
A rate of return of 10 percent on the investment of $400.
Example:Valuing a One-Period Project (2)
Investment
$400
Required return 10%
Revenue forecast $448
2.剩余收益模型是什么？ 定义：A model that measures value added from forecasts of residual earnings is called the residual earnings model. 公式：
Earnings Dividends Book value
5
5
5
5
100
100 100
5
5
5
5
5
5
100
100
100
Residual earnings
0
0
0
0
0
______________________________________________________________________________________
Example:Valuing a Savings Account
Forecast Year ________________________________________
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Earnings withdrawn each year (full payout)
P/B ratio
P/B
公式： P / B
V
E 0
B0
P/B与剩余收益、剩余收益模型的两个驱动因 素都有密切的联系。同时，提醒投资者： Beware of paying too much for earnings!
剩余收益模型(简单)
1.什么是剩余收益？ 定义：Residual earnings is the earnings in excess of these required dollar earnings. 公式:
回报率 • terminal investment:终端投资 • going concern investment：持续投资 • withdrawl: 撤回；提款 • forecast horizon:预测期间 • fiscal years:会计年度 • share issue：发行股票 • earnings per share(EPS):每股收益 • dividends per share(DPS):每股股利 • discounted cash flow method(DCF):现金流量折现法 • continuing value（CV）: 持续价值
No withdrawals (zero payout)
Earnings Dividends Book value
5
5.25
5.51 5.79
6.08
0
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
0
0
0
0
100
105 110.25 115.76 121.55 127.63
Residual earnings
0
0
0
0
0
______________________________________________________________________________________
value=Book value+Premium =Book value +present value of expected residual earnings.
Example:Valuing a One-Period Project (1)
Investment
$400
Required return
Earnings forecast $ 48
Residualearnings1 48-(0.10x400)=8
Value Project 400 8 407.27 1.10
The project adds value
DCvFa lu14e.418040.277 A rate of return of 12 percent on the investment of $400.
Forecasts for a Savings Account with $100 invested at the end of 2000.Earning5% per year. Value = Book Value + Present Value of Residual Earnings
Chapter5 结构
P/B 简单模型
剩余收益模型 复杂模型 Equities
剩余收益模型的应用 Prijects Stategies
剩余收益模型的优点、缺点
剩余收益模型对投资者的提醒
总结
本章重要专业英文词汇
• residual earnings or residual income: 剩余收益 • residual earnings model: 剩余收益模型 • premium:溢价 • price-to-book ratio(P/B):市净率 • rate of return on common equity(ROCE): 普通股本
Accrual Accounting and Valuation: Pricing Book
Values---Residual Earnings Model
权责发生制与价值评估: 账面价值定价--剩余收益模型
Chapter5
公司在进行交易时，价格并非是账 面价值。资产负债表中的资产和负债有 的是公允价值，有的是历史成本，还有 一些则被从资产负债表中删除。这就导 致分析家们忽略了从资产负债表中删除 的价值。分析家们会问：到底在账面价 值的基础上增加多少才是固有的价值？ 每支股票在交易时基于账面价值的溢价 到底是多少？本章提出的剩余收益模型 解决了分析家们的困惑。
10%
Revenue forecast $440
Forecasted earnings $ 40
Residualearnings1 Earnings1 (Required return xInvestment0)
40 - (0.10x 400)
0
Value
400 0 1.10
DCF Valuation:
400
V 440400 1.10
A rate of return of 10 percent on the investment of $400.
Example:Valuing a One-Period Project (2)
Investment
$400
Required return 10%
Revenue forecast $448