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A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor 12
Extending Projection to 2023 Predicts Cost-effective Bulk Power
100 1978 $30.14/W 1980 $21.83/W 1986 $10.48 10 2000 $3.89/W 2013 $1.44/W 2023 $0.65 Distributed Generation Value Bulk Generation Value
Cumulative Production (MW)
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
13
Bottom Line The Future of Solar Cells
Year PV Market System Cost Energy Status Dominant Technology
Wafered Silicon
2005
1 GW
$6.00/W
Negligible Contribution “The Tipping Point” Cost Effective Building Integrated Applications Emergence of Large Distributed Plants. PV Becomes a Major Source of Energy.
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
4
Conventional Solar Cell Loss Mechanisms
Reflection Loss 1.8% 0.4%
I2R Loss
0.4% 0.3% Recombination Losses 2.0% 2.6%
NANO?
14
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
rface
240 µ
on wa stalline silic ry thick monoc
fer
N
P
–
+
By locating all of the electrical contacts on the back surface, SunPower is able to A achieve of Cypress Semiconductor subsidiary conversion efficiencies up to 50% higher than conventional solar cells. 6
P-type silicon attracts holes
2. Free electron goes to top metal contact
Bottom metal contact
3. Hole (broken bond) left behind goes to bottom metal contact
Ingot Gr owt h, 21% Inst allat ion, 31%
Waf er ing, 14%
Module Assembly, 21%
Cell Pr ocessing, 14%
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
2
Historical Silicon PV Efficiency
2010 to 2015
10 GW
$3.00/W
Building Integrated Incentive Investments End
Wafered Silicon
2020 to 2025
100 GW
$1.50/W
• Wafered Silicon? • Thin Films? • Concentrators? •
1.54%
3.8%
1.4% Back Light Absorption
Limit Cell Efficiency Total Losses Generic Cell Efficiency
29.0% -14.3% 14.7%
5
The All-Back-Contact Solar Cell
Textured front su
High-Efficiency Silicon Solar Cells
Richard M. Swanson SunPower Corporation
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
1
PV System Cost Components
Higher efficiency leverages cost savings throughout the value chain
A300
Back Side
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
Front Side
7
High-Efficiency Back-Contact Loss Mechanisms
0.5% 0.8%
1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
0.2% 1.0%
Limit Cell Efficiency Total Losses Enabled Cell Efficiency
10
Module Manuf. Cost Roadmap
3.00 2.50
Module Cost ($/W)
2.00
2012 $1.00/W
1.50
1.00
Mc-Si CZ-Si
0.50
0.00 2002 2004 2006 Year 2008 2010 2012
11
Factors Driving Future Cost Reduction • • • • • • Increasing efficiency: 16% →25% Reduced thickness: 220 µm → 120 µm Increased cell size: 125 mm → 200 mm Improvements in crystal growth technology Improvements in slicing technology Increased manufacturing scale: 200 MW → 500 MW • More automation
Historical Projected
Module Price ($/W) ($2002)
32%/pa
1
We know how to do this We don’t know how to do this
Current US Generation Capacity
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Manufacturers Concentrated on Cost Reduction During this Period
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
3
Solar Cell Operation (cont.)
1. Photon of sunlight knocks electron loose N-type silicon Attracts electrons Top metal contact
29.ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu% -4.4% 24.6%
I2R Loss 0.1%
8
History of Best Laboratory Silicon Cells
How High Can We Go? Stanford UNSW
9
Convergence of thermodynamic And device models
Extending Projection to 2023 Predicts Cost-effective Bulk Power
100 1978 $30.14/W 1980 $21.83/W 1986 $10.48 10 2000 $3.89/W 2013 $1.44/W 2023 $0.65 Distributed Generation Value Bulk Generation Value
Cumulative Production (MW)
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
13
Bottom Line The Future of Solar Cells
Year PV Market System Cost Energy Status Dominant Technology
Wafered Silicon
2005
1 GW
$6.00/W
Negligible Contribution “The Tipping Point” Cost Effective Building Integrated Applications Emergence of Large Distributed Plants. PV Becomes a Major Source of Energy.
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
4
Conventional Solar Cell Loss Mechanisms
Reflection Loss 1.8% 0.4%
I2R Loss
0.4% 0.3% Recombination Losses 2.0% 2.6%
NANO?
14
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
rface
240 µ
on wa stalline silic ry thick monoc
fer
N
P
–
+
By locating all of the electrical contacts on the back surface, SunPower is able to A achieve of Cypress Semiconductor subsidiary conversion efficiencies up to 50% higher than conventional solar cells. 6
P-type silicon attracts holes
2. Free electron goes to top metal contact
Bottom metal contact
3. Hole (broken bond) left behind goes to bottom metal contact
Ingot Gr owt h, 21% Inst allat ion, 31%
Waf er ing, 14%
Module Assembly, 21%
Cell Pr ocessing, 14%
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
2
Historical Silicon PV Efficiency
2010 to 2015
10 GW
$3.00/W
Building Integrated Incentive Investments End
Wafered Silicon
2020 to 2025
100 GW
$1.50/W
• Wafered Silicon? • Thin Films? • Concentrators? •
1.54%
3.8%
1.4% Back Light Absorption
Limit Cell Efficiency Total Losses Generic Cell Efficiency
29.0% -14.3% 14.7%
5
The All-Back-Contact Solar Cell
Textured front su
High-Efficiency Silicon Solar Cells
Richard M. Swanson SunPower Corporation
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
1
PV System Cost Components
Higher efficiency leverages cost savings throughout the value chain
A300
Back Side
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
Front Side
7
High-Efficiency Back-Contact Loss Mechanisms
0.5% 0.8%
1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
0.2% 1.0%
Limit Cell Efficiency Total Losses Enabled Cell Efficiency
10
Module Manuf. Cost Roadmap
3.00 2.50
Module Cost ($/W)
2.00
2012 $1.00/W
1.50
1.00
Mc-Si CZ-Si
0.50
0.00 2002 2004 2006 Year 2008 2010 2012
11
Factors Driving Future Cost Reduction • • • • • • Increasing efficiency: 16% →25% Reduced thickness: 220 µm → 120 µm Increased cell size: 125 mm → 200 mm Improvements in crystal growth technology Improvements in slicing technology Increased manufacturing scale: 200 MW → 500 MW • More automation
Historical Projected
Module Price ($/W) ($2002)
32%/pa
1
We know how to do this We don’t know how to do this
Current US Generation Capacity
0.1 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Manufacturers Concentrated on Cost Reduction During this Period
A subsidiary of Cypress Semiconductor
3
Solar Cell Operation (cont.)
1. Photon of sunlight knocks electron loose N-type silicon Attracts electrons Top metal contact
29.ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu% -4.4% 24.6%
I2R Loss 0.1%
8
History of Best Laboratory Silicon Cells
How High Can We Go? Stanford UNSW
9
Convergence of thermodynamic And device models