中国人口增长预测模型

北方民族大学学士学位论文论文题目:中国人口增长预测模型

院(部)名称:信息与计算科学学院

学生姓名:赖银波

专业:数学与应用数学学号:20040291指导教师姓名:高义讲师

论文提交时间: 2008年5月26日

论文答辩时间: 2008年5月30日

学位授予时间:

北方民族大学教务处制

中国人口增长预测模型

摘要

本课题来源于2007年全国大学生数学建模竞赛甲组A题，本文以中国人口发展为研究对象，首先综合分析题目提供的信息讨论了已有的一些预测方法及其适用的范围和优缺点，然后结合我国人口发展现状和题目提供的数据表确立了以2000年人口普查数据为基础数据、以大学生数学建模提供的2001年到2005年的各分量数据为预测指导方向、以2006年和2007年的公报数据为结果检验参照数据的整体建模思想，并在建模过程中提出了人口年龄推移算法，即通过上一年年末市镇乡男女各年龄人口数量、育龄妇女生育率和人口死亡率，计算出本年的出生人口数和死亡人口数，并结合2001年到2005年市镇乡人口比拟合出未来人口迁移变化式，在此基础上根据上一年年末人口总数加上当年出生人口数和迁进人口数，减去当年死亡人口数和迁出人口数，获得本年年末人口数量．依次进行推移，对未来30年中国人口进行预测．预测结果显示在未来30年中国人口规模将保持增长的趋势，2010年为13.4亿，2020年为13.9亿，并在2034年达到峰值14.2亿，中国人口实现零增长. 在此期间人口自然增长率持续平稳下降，妇女生育保持稳定的低水平，死亡率保持较低水平，人口抚养比持续下降，城镇化水平进一步提高，人口年龄结构继续向老年型人口转变.

文章最后结合预测结果提出了我国未来应继续坚持贯彻实施计划生育政策和加强关注农村老年人口等人口政策的建议．

关键词：中国人口数学模型人口预测人口政策

The Model of Chinese Population Growth Prediction

Abstract

The subject stems from the problem A of the 2007th China undergraduate mathematical contest in modeling(CUMCM).Firstly, the paper discusses several prediction methods and their advantages and disadvantages. Secondly, based on the census data in 2000, analyzed the data provided by CUMCM-2007, tested by the data from the BO of 2006 and 2007, combined development of Chinese population, the paper states the model of Chinese population growth prediction, gives an algorithm of age process of Chinese population, that is to say, by the population of males and females at all ages coming from cities, towns and villages last year, calculate this year’s population was born and population was died, then integrate the population of cities, towns and villages between 2001 and 2005 to add up to a comparable movement of population in the future. On this basis, according to the total population in the end of last year with population was born and population moved-out, then get the number of this year’s populati on. Thirdly, used by the model, the paper predicts Chinese population in the next 30 years and analyzes the results.

The results demonstrate that Chinese population will maintain the scale of growth trend in the next 30 years, it is to 1.34 billion in 2010, to 1.39 billion in 2020 and reaches its peak 1.42 billion in 2034, and begins to achieve zero growth. During this period, the natural population growth rate maintains steady decline, women's fertility maintains a stable low-level, the mortality maintains a relatively low level, the population dependency ratio continues to drop, the level of urbanization further improves, the age structure of population continues to change to the one of the elderly.

Finally, combined the results, the paper gives proposals that the family planning policy should continue to be held on and the concern of the elderly in rural areas should continue to be strengthened in the future.

Key words: Chinese population，mathematical model，population prediction，

population policy