经济数量分析论文

外贸依存度与中国经济发展

关联分析

学院：经管学院

专业：国际贸易学

学号：

摘要

近年来随着我国对外贸易的不断发展，对外贸易与经济发展之间的关系也逐渐成为人们关注的焦点之一。外贸依存度作为衡量一国经济对外依赖程度的主要指标之一逐步引起了人们的关注。许多学者对相关问题进行了大量的研究，这些理论对于正确理解及应用外贸依存度来衡量一国经济对外依赖程度具有很高的参考价值，但也存在一定的局限性，尤其是在对我国外贸依存度研究方面。我国自加入世贸组织之后外贸依存度逐年攀升，国内学者针对这一现象对外贸依存度进行了深度分析。但这些研究存在一定的问题和局限性，本文针对这些研究理论的问题和不足，将外贸依存度与中国经济发展进行关联研究，使外贸依存度以纵向的视角展现出来，从而进一步论证现阶段我国外贸依存度适与经济发展的关系。

本文的写作框架主要包括以下四个部分：第一部分是一国经济与外贸及外贸依存度关联研究综述。第二部分根据影响外贸依存度的因素选择经济发展几个重要指标。第三部分为本文的核心内容，根据我国经济发展阶段，将选择的经济发展指标用于我国发展现状与实际外贸依存度进行关联分析，其中在我国现阶段产业结构与外贸依存度之间的关系分析中应用计量经济模型进行数量分析，并对结论进行详细论述。进行探索我国的实际外贸依存度与我国目前经济发展阶段是否相适应。第四部分针对得出的相关结论对我国外贸依存度发展趋势做出展望。

关键字词:外贸依存度；经济发展；经济发展阶段；关联分析

ABSTRACT

With the continuous development of China's foreign trade in recent years, the relationship between foreign trade and economic development also gradually become one of the focus of attention. Foreign trade dependence as a measure of a country's economy one of the main indexes of external dependence gradually aroused people's concern. Many scholars on the issues related to a lot of research, the theory for the correct understanding and application of foreign trade dependency to measure a country's economic external dependence degree has the very high reference value, but also has certain limitation, especially in the area of research on China's foreign trade dependency. Our country foreign trade dependency rising year by year since the accession to the wto, the domestic scholars in reaction to the phenomenon of the foreign trade dependence are analyzed in depth. But these studies some problems and limitations, this paper study the problems and the insufficiency of the theory of the foreign trade dependency associated with China's economic development, make foreign trade dependency, from a view of the longitudinal, further demonstrates the conclusion of the present stage our country foreign trade dependency moderate.

Writing framework of this article mainly includes the following four parts: the first part is a country's economy and foreign trade and foreign trade dependency association studies were reviewed. The second part according to the factors that affect foreign trade dependency select several important economic development indicators. The third part is the core content of this article, according to China's economic development stage, will choose indicators of economic development for our country development present situation and the actual foreign trade dependency relation analysis, which in our country at this stage of the relationship between industrial structure and foreign trade dependency analysis in the application of econometric model to analyze the number, and the conclusions are discussed in detail. Thus concluded that China's actual match the dependence of foreign trade and economic development in our country at present stage. The fourth part for the relevant conclusions make outlook on development trend of China's foreign trade dependency. Key words:Ratio of dependence on foreign trade; Economic development;

Economic development stages; Study on the relationship