Children'senvironmental_healthclimatechangePPT课件
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subterranean cells) • Impaired crop production • Population displacement: diverse health
risks (nutrition, infection, mental health)
Loss of trop forest, woodland Domesticated land Global biodiversity
7 From: Steffen et al. In press 2004
20
Average Global Tem1p9erature (OC)
18
This presents a rate-of-change probleImPCfCor(m20a0n1y)neastutirmalates systemas/1p.r4o-c5e.8sseoCs increase
High
17
16
15
14 13
1860
Central estimate = 2.5 oC (plus increased variability)
Low
1900
Band of historical climatic variability
1950
2000
Year
2050 Fra Baidu bibliotek100
Sea-LevSeeal -Rleivseel,roisveeorvtehrecocmominigncgemntuilrleiensnium
• Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a narrow band of climatic-environmental conditions.
5
Number of Earths
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
400
600
Time from start (years)
800
IPCICPC20C0,120901
SLR Risks to Small Island-States
• Coastal flooding • Amplified storm surges • Damaged coastal infrastructure (roads, etc.) • Salination of island fresh-water (esp.
Climate Change and Health
With special reference to risks facing small island-
states Anthony J McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, ACT 0200
Atmos CO2 conc Atmos N2O conc
Atmos CH4 conc
Atmos ozone loss Av surface temp (NH) Climate disasters
Fully exploited fisheries Coastal shrimp farms Coastal N2 flux
2
Kilimanjaro 1970
Area (km2)
Ice on Kilimanjaro
15 10
5 0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year
Kilimanjaro 2000
Climate Change: Basic Issues
• Earth’s climate varies naturally – because of a variety of cosmological and geological processes.
1960s
Number of Earths used by humanity
One Earth is available (The planet’s total biocapacity = 1.0)
1970s
1980s
1990s
Based on Wackernagel et al, 20602
Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
• “Climate change” refers to an additional, and relatively rapid, change induced by human actions.
• The additional change – several degrees C within a century – will disrupt the foundations of life on Earth.
fast over the past 30 years • Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating • Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes
have changed over the past two decades
following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions
1.5
Sea-level rise (m)
Total sea level rise
1.0
Ocean Expansion
Ice-melt
0.5
0.0 200
Peaking in 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action)
Climate Change: the “debate”
Skepticism is now receding. We know that: • Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are
increasing • GHGs affect the climate system (thankfully!) • World average temperature has risen relatively
risks (nutrition, infection, mental health)
Loss of trop forest, woodland Domesticated land Global biodiversity
7 From: Steffen et al. In press 2004
20
Average Global Tem1p9erature (OC)
18
This presents a rate-of-change probleImPCfCor(m20a0n1y)neastutirmalates systemas/1p.r4o-c5e.8sseoCs increase
High
17
16
15
14 13
1860
Central estimate = 2.5 oC (plus increased variability)
Low
1900
Band of historical climatic variability
1950
2000
Year
2050 Fra Baidu bibliotek100
Sea-LevSeeal -Rleivseel,roisveeorvtehrecocmominigncgemntuilrleiensnium
• Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a narrow band of climatic-environmental conditions.
5
Number of Earths
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
400
600
Time from start (years)
800
IPCICPC20C0,120901
SLR Risks to Small Island-States
• Coastal flooding • Amplified storm surges • Damaged coastal infrastructure (roads, etc.) • Salination of island fresh-water (esp.
Climate Change and Health
With special reference to risks facing small island-
states Anthony J McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, ACT 0200
Atmos CO2 conc Atmos N2O conc
Atmos CH4 conc
Atmos ozone loss Av surface temp (NH) Climate disasters
Fully exploited fisheries Coastal shrimp farms Coastal N2 flux
2
Kilimanjaro 1970
Area (km2)
Ice on Kilimanjaro
15 10
5 0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year
Kilimanjaro 2000
Climate Change: Basic Issues
• Earth’s climate varies naturally – because of a variety of cosmological and geological processes.
1960s
Number of Earths used by humanity
One Earth is available (The planet’s total biocapacity = 1.0)
1970s
1980s
1990s
Based on Wackernagel et al, 20602
Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
• “Climate change” refers to an additional, and relatively rapid, change induced by human actions.
• The additional change – several degrees C within a century – will disrupt the foundations of life on Earth.
fast over the past 30 years • Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating • Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes
have changed over the past two decades
following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions
1.5
Sea-level rise (m)
Total sea level rise
1.0
Ocean Expansion
Ice-melt
0.5
0.0 200
Peaking in 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action)
Climate Change: the “debate”
Skepticism is now receding. We know that: • Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are
increasing • GHGs affect the climate system (thankfully!) • World average temperature has risen relatively