有关现值汉密尔顿函数的注解

Part 3. The Essentials of Dynamic Optimisation

In macroeconomics the majority of problems involve optimisation over time. Typically a representative agent chooses optimal magnitudes of choice variables from an initial time until infinitely far into the future. There are a number of methods to solve these problems. In discrete time the problem can often be solved using a Lagrangean function. However in other cases it becomes necessary to use the more sophisticated techniques of Optimal Control Theory or Dynamic Programming . This handout provides an introduction to optimal control theory.

Special Aspects of Optimisation over Time

• Stock - Flow variable relationship.

All dynamic problems have a stock-flow structure. Mathematically the flow variables are referred to as control variables and the stock variables as state variables. Not surprisingly the control variables are used to affect (or steer) the state variables. For example in any one period the amount of investment and the amount of money growth are flow variables that affect the stock of output and the level of prices which are state variables.

• The objective function is additively seperable. This assumption makes the problem analytically tractable. In essence it allows us to separate the dynamic problem into a sequence of separate (in the objective function) one period optimisation problems. Don't be confused, the optimisation problems are not separate because of the stock-flow relationships, but the elements of the objective function are. To be more precise the objective function is expressed as a sum of functions (i.e. integral or sigma form) each of which depends only on the variables in that period. For example utility in a given period is independent of utility in the previous period.

1. Lagrangean Technique

We can apply the Lagrangean technique in the usual way.

Notation

t y = State variable(s) =t μControl variable(s)

The control and state variables are related according to some dynamic equation,

()t y f y y t t t t ,,1μ=-+ (1)

Choosing t μ allows us to alter the change in t y . If the above is a production function we choose =t μ investment to alter t t y y -+1 the change in output over the period. Why does time enter on its own? This would represent the trend growth rate of output.

We might also have constraints that apply in each single period such as,

()0,,≤t y G t t μ

(2)

The objective function in discrete time is of the form,

()∑=T

t t

t

t y F 0

,,μ

(3)

The first order conditions with respect to t y are,

1. Optimal Control Theory

Suppose that our objective is maximise the discounted utility from the use of an exhaustible resource over a given time interval. In order to optimise we would have to choose the optimal rate of extraction. That is we would solve the following problem,

()()dt e E S U Max t T

E

ρ-⎰0

subject to,

()t E dt

dS

-= )0(S S =

()free T S =

Where ()t S denotes the stock of a raw material and ()t E the rate of extraction. By choosing the optimal rate of extraction we can choose the optimal stock of oil at each period of time and so maximise utility. The rate of extraction is called the control variable and the stock of the raw material the state variable. By finding the optimal path for the control variable we can find the optimal path for the state variable. This is how optimal control theory works.

The relationship between the stock and the extraction rate is defined by a differential equation (otherwise it would not be a dynamic problem). This differential equation is called the equation of motion . The last two are conditions are boundary conditions. The first tells us the current stock, the last tells us we are free to choose the stock at the end of the period. If utility is always increased by using the raw material this must be zero. Notice that the time period is fixed. This is called a fixed terminal time problem.

The Maximum Principle

In general our prototype problem is to solve,