不确定条件下投资者的行为分析

不确定条件下投资者的行为分析

摘要

投资的决策以及分析是每个公司投资行动中非常重要也是最经常的部分，由于一个项目的投资金额不小，持续时间较长，一旦进行投资就不能更改，所以应综合考虑各方面因素理性进行投资决策。然而投资主体在项目的投资过程中面临着许多的不确定性，在当前的经济环境下，大量存在着随机和非随机的改变量，经济因素会根据不同市场环境产生变化，经济环境让经济因素的变更可能很大，因此不存在一个固定的最优投资决策规则。无论是传统的净现值法还是实物期权法，都无法在任何情况下对项目做出一个准确的价值评估，因此，将博弈论引入投资决策分析中应该会使假设更贴近现实，使投资者更方便的用于实践，感应市场变化的方向，加大经济增长速度，为了微观经济因素的追求利润更大化和能量最大化的结果。事实已经表明，对不确定决策的探索不仅有深刻的实际意义，并且具有不浅的理论意义。本文开始对不确定条件下的投资决策手段进行了概述和解释，探明了传统投资方法与实物期权方法的不足，在这个方面上对当前的投资决策手段和途径的最前沿成果进行了详细的说明，并对我国资本市场上投资者行为进行了简单的分析。

关键词：不确定性，投资决策，实物期权，经济环境

Investor behavior under uncertainty analysis

ABSTRACT

Decision and analysis of investment is the investment activities of each enterprise in the most important and most frequently part of a fiscal year will often encounter.Because of the amount of investment of a project is not small,longer duration,once the investment can not change,it should be comprehensive consideration of various factors of rational investment decision.However, investors in the investment process of the project faces many uncertainties,in the current economic environment,there are a lot of random and non random variation,Economic factors will change according to the different market environment,The economic environment for economic factors may greatly change,therefore there is not a fixed optimal investment decision rules.Both the traditional NPV method and real options method,cannot under any circumstances of the project to make an accurate assessment of the value,therefore, the introduction of the game theory into the analysis of investment decision should be made closer to the realistic assumption,to enable investors to practice for more convenient,induction of changes in the market direction,to increase the rate of economic growth,In order to micro economic factors the pursuit of profit more and energy maximum results.Facts have shown that,The uncertain decision research not only has the profound practical significance,and has the theory significance not shallow.This paper starts were summarized and interpretation of uncertain investment decision method under the condition of,lack of proven traditional investment method and real options method,in this respect on the current investment decision means and ways to the forefront achievements in

detail,and the behavior of investors in Chinese capital market makes a simple analysis.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Investment decision, Real options，Economic environment

目录

摘要............................................................................................................................ I ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. II 目录........................................................................................................................... II 绪论.. (1)

1 投资概述 (1)

1.1投资的重要性 (1)

1.2 投资决策方法 (2)

1.3 投资的不确定因素 (2)

2 不确定性分析的必要性 (3)

3 不确定性投资决策分析方法 (4)

3.1主体认知层次差异下的投资行为分析 (4)

3.2主体偏好的时间不一致性的投资决策行为 (5)

3.3主体信息结构的投资决策行为分析 (6)

3.4对投资者行为的具体分析 (6)

4 总结 (7)

致谢 (8)

参考文献 (9)