European sovereign-debt crisis欧债危机
欧债危机
欧债危机，全称欧洲主权债务危机，是指自2009年以来在欧洲部分国家爆发的主权债务危机。
欧债危机是美国次贷危机的延续和深化，其本质原因是政府的债务负担超过了自身的承受范围，而引起的违约风险。
外部原因1 金融危机中政府加杠杆化使债务负担加重2 评级机构不断调低主权债务评级，助推危机进一步蔓延。
内部原因1，产业结构不平衡：实体经济空心化，经济发展脆弱2，人口结构不平衡：逐步进入老龄化3，刚性的社会福利制度4，法德等国在救援上的分歧令危机处于胶着状态根本原因1，货币制度与财政制度不能统一，协调成本过高。
2，欧盟各国劳动力无法自由流动，各国不同的公司税税率导致资本的流入，从而造成经济的泡沫化。
3，欧元区设计上没有退出机制，出现问题后协商成本很高。
高盛扮演角色：高盛公司为希腊量身定做的“货币掉期交易”方式，为希腊掩盖了一笔高达10亿欧元的公共债务，以符合欧元区成员国的标准。
有分析指出，高盛行为背后是欧美之间的金融主导权之争。
表面上来看，高盛在希腊债务危机中的角色是金融机构和主权国家之间的利益纠葛，但是从深层次来看，这是一种阻止欧洲一体化战略在经济上的表现。
解决途径第一，提高德国公共支出和预算赤字。
第二，扩大当前的7500亿欧元紧急救助基金规模。
第三，欧洲央行应扩大债券购买规模。
第四，“PIIGS”减少财政支出。
（1）实施紧缩的财政政策（2）申请和接受援助（3）组建技术性政府（4）发展经济（5）实施一揽子政策（6）缔结政府间条约欧洲债务危机对中国的影响三途径：贸易途径、金融途径、非接触性传导贸易途径：欧债危机造成的财政紧缩和消费萎缩、欧元贬值、贸易保护主义抬头是此次危机影响中国对外贸易主要因素。
金融途径：主要通过引发欧元资产贬值、短期投机资本流入和直接投资下降3个因素影响中国经济。
非接触性传导：事实上欧债危机还通过非接触性传导的途径影响中国经济。
具体说就是，欧债危机通过影响投资者信心，甚至引发“羊群效应”，给中国经济发展带来不利影响。
欧洲主权债务危机英文课件-PPT精品文档
Ask EU to recognize China’s Market Economy Country Status and loosen the hightech products export to China ?
news.xinhuanet/world/2019-10/28/c_111131389.htm
1、What’s European Sovereign Debt Crisis ? （the definitions of 2 terms)
A sovereign default is the failure or refusal of the government of a sovereign state to pay back its debt in full. It may be accompanied by a formal declaration of a government not to pay , or only partially pay its debts. If potential lenders or bond purchasers begin to suspect that a government may fail to pay back its debt, they may demand a high interest rate in compensation for the risk of default. A dramatic rise in the interest rate faced by a government due to fear that it will fail to honor its debt is sometimes called a sovereign debt crisis.
欧债危机
欧盟成员国财 政部长达成了 一项总额高达 7500亿欧元的 亿欧元的 稳定机制， 稳定机制，避 免危机蔓延。 免危机蔓延。
国际援助
为救助陷入债务危机困境的希腊， 为救助陷入债务危机困境的希腊， 欧元区国家和国际货币基金组织(IMF) 欧元区国家和国际货币基金组织 将携手提供为期三年总计1100亿欧元 将携手提供为期三年总计 亿欧元 的救助，其中欧元区出资800亿欧元， 亿欧元， 的救助，其中欧元区出资 亿欧元 IMF提供 提供300欧元。IMF预计将在星期 欧元。 提供 欧元 预计将在星期 日将援助方案进行表决。 日将援助方案进行表决。 iMF的钱，主要来自于成员国按份 的钱， 的钱 额的出资。在目前IMF份额排序中， 份额排序中， 额的出资。在目前 份额排序中 美国作为世界经济老大， 美国作为世界经济老大，份额为 17.09%，日本为 ，日本为6.12%，德国为 ，德国为5.98， ， 英国和法国均为4.94%，中国则为 英国和法国均为 ， 3.72%。如此换算下来，美国须为这 。如此换算下来， 次救助希腊出资约68亿美元 亿美元， 次救助希腊出资约 亿美元，欧元区 总体救助金额则肯定高于800亿欧元， 亿欧元， 总体救助金额则肯定高于 亿欧元 远在万里之外的中国，也须付出约15 远在万里之外的中国，也须付出约 亿美元。 亿美元。
• 欧盟出手相救
3.Reasons
• The slow speed of European economic development and the increasing cost of social welfare and Public Expenditure • The effect of the sub prime mortgage crisis • Uneven development of European countries between southern Europe and western Europe (different economic system and operation mode)
eropean debt crisis
Brief introduction of Some Terminologies
1.欧元区(Eurozone)是指由采用欧元作为单一的官
方货币的国家组合而成的区域。欧元区由欧洲中 央银行负责制定货币政策。1999年1月1日欧元 正式出现宣告欧元区的成立。希腊 希腊2001年1月1 希腊 日加入欧元区。欧元区共有17个成员，根据官方 对于2007年GDP数据的预测，欧元区已经成为 世界上最大的经济体。现在有超过3亿2千万的人 口。
6.主权信用评价Sovereign rating 家主权评级，体现一国偿债 意愿和能力，主权评级内容很广，除了要 对一个国家国内生产总值增长趋势、对外 贸易、国际收支情况、外汇储备、外债总 量及结构、财政收支、政策实施等影响国 家偿还能力的因素进行分析外，还要对金 融体制改革、国企改革、社会保障体制改 革所造成的财政负担进行分析，最后进行 评级。主权评级标准从AAA至C 。
From late 2009, fears of a sovereign debt crisis developed among investors concerning some European states, intensifying in early 2010. 欧洲主权债务危机（ 欧洲主权债务危机（简 称“欧债危机”）， 是指自2009年年底以 来，不少财政上相对 保守的投资者对部分 欧洲国家在主权债务 危机方面所产生的忧 虑，危机在2010年年 初的时候一度陷入最 严峻的局面
What ‘s the latest reaction?
• Greek referendum(公投). • EU Summit. • G20 Summit.
欧债危机（Europeandebtcrisis）
欧债危机（European debt crisis）The European debt crisis intensifiedThe spectre of a sovereign debt crisis lingers on the continentWith Greece, Ireland, Portugal's sovereign debt crisis warming, the debt crisis began to spread from the periphery to the core countries, Italy and Spain, who will be the European debt crisis, a fall of "Domino" became the talk of boiling point. As of the end of 2010, Italy's public debt to GDP ratio reached 119%, far higher than the upper limit of 60% "Maastricht treaty" provisions, in the EU after Greece 142.8%. In addition, Italy's economic growth is weak, the export growth trend is weak, the import commodity prices are soaring, and the bad economic environment makes Italy's crisis worse. Spain is also faced with the risk of being involved in the debt crisis. Data show that Spain's budget deficit in 2010 as high as 9.2% of gdp. Although the Spanish government is implementing the biggest budget cuts in 30 years, measures have also been taken to raise the retirement age and reduce the cost of layoffs. But the International Fund believes that Spain's measures to prevent the debt crisis are incomplete and face considerable risk of debt. According to reports, the financial giant Soros will blame the European debt crisis on Germany's selfishness and inaction. He believes that the German Prime Minister Merkel insisted on maintaining its own financial system security, and buried the scourge of today's European debt crisis. Italy's prime minister, Berlusconi, called on Congress to pass the austerity package as soon as possible. However, according to statistics, Italy's economy grew by 1.03% in the first quarter of 2011, and this slow economic growth could fall into recessiononce it meets fiscal austerity. If Italy seeks help from the outside world, it must tighten its economy, so it may be caught in a double predicament of recession and rising public debt. As the third and fourth largest economies in the euro area, Italy and Spain are among the most important players in the European economy, and the impact on markets is far weaker than in Greece, when debt defaults occur. In view of the fact that Italy and Spain huge foreign debt, some analysts believe that if the two countries into a debt crisis from market financing, then other EU countries will not have enough power to rescue Italy and Spain, the eurozone may therefore fall apart. From a global perspective, if the European sovereign debt crisis spread to the core countries, the global market will reverse the direction of investment, funds withdrawal from the stock market, commodity markets, access to precious metals markets, such as hedging. This will lead to an obvious fluctuation in asset prices, which may lead to a new round of financial crises. As the debt crisis in Italy and Spain approaches, the euro zone's second largest economy, France, is also facing debt risk. There are signs that market investors are shorting French sovereign bonds, and the debt crisis is pressing.Traces of American debt behind the European debt crisisBehind the European debt crisis is a deeper contest, that is, the United States and Europe are launching a war of currency dominance and debt resources. As a matter of fact, the United States continues to carry out structural authority given by its monetary hegemony". Since the birth of the euro, the euro has been one of the world's most powerful potential competitors, challenging the dollar hegemony system. First, the euro weakensthe dollar's position in international trade. For emerging market countries, the euro provides an alternative currency option to settle the dollar. As the euro area's main export commodities are competitive with the United States, the rise in the euro settlement will inevitably lead to a fall in the dollar settlement. The settlement amount is the pricing power, and the decrease of the US dollar settlement amount means the loss of the pricing power of the United States in the international market. Second, the euro hit the reserve currency position of the dollar. After the birth of the euro, the proportion of the world's total foreign exchange reserves continued to rise, while the dollar continued to decline. A statistical data according to IM F's official foreign exchange reserves, from 1996 to 2009, the dollar in international reserve position has experienced a "inverted U" trend, before the euro was formally established and at the beginning of the establishment, the dollar in international reserve status is rising, the proportion of world reserves from 1995 59% rose to 2001 by the end of 71.5%. But since 2001, the share of the dollar has fallen, and by 2010 it has fallen to 62.1%. However, the threat to the United States seems more than that, and one of the biggest challenges is the scramble for resources between American bonds and European bonds. This is perhaps the biggest concern for the United states. Under the borrowing dependent system, the US long-term international trade deficit and current account deficit can be maintained, and it needs to be guaranteed by the continuous revolving movement of U. S. dollars. To keep the dollar moving round and round, it must depend on exports from other countries in exchange for dollars,Other countries have traded dollars to invest in the UnitedStates by buying American bonds, and the dollar has returned to the United States to finance its debts. What worries the United States is that, like the United States, European countries are basically debt dependent countries". According to the IM F database, world debt issue of the number of the top ten countries, including the United States, 7 European countries and Japan and Australia, the 10 countries foreign bonds accounted for 83.8% of the world, and the eurozone bond market collection scale accounted for 45% of the world. The United States has more than 32% of the shares, this is undoubtedly the biggest challenge for the United States debt dependent system. Since the financial crisis, the Fed has become the biggest buyer of US debt and has monetized its currency through quantitative easing. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the Fed's balance sheet size increased from $899 billion 300 million in June 2007 to $27231 billion in early May 2011, is 3 times more than before the crisis. Now, the Fed is about to stop its $600 billion treasury bond purchase plan in June, and who will continue to take over such a huge debt is the biggest problem. With both the monetary and fiscal pressures on the US, only the creation of a bond that is worse than the US Treasury will allow the financial markets to choose a better one between bad and worse. So, the recent U.S. rating agencies continue to reduce Greece, Ireland, Belgium's sovereign credit rating, turns on the European debt crisis manufacturing turmoil, shorting Euro dollar, using "hedging properties" and a strong stage, the capital back into the United States, while the United States became the winner of the crisis, including Treasury and beauty shares and other institutions bonds popular dollar assets. Although the U.S. Treasury has exceeded the debt ceiling, but the 10 year Treasury yields and30 year Treasury yields hit a five month low, U.S. Treasury bonds being oversubscribed, debt financing smoothly. Between the inside and outside the pincer attack, the European debt crisis is no longer the crisis of the five European countries, the risk of the debt crisis spreading from the marginal countries to the core country is further increasing, and waiting for Europe will be a new round of debt storm. - Zhang MonanEurope's debt crisis or big bangLast weekend, Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of Commerce and Secretary General of the China International Exchange Center, said: "in order to guard against risks, China will no longer be eager to buy European debt.". China has bought a lot of European debt (about 1/4 of its foreign exchange reserves), and if the euro falls, China will suffer a huge loss. Europe can only go its own way, China can do very limited". This is a delicate and definite statement. The author believes that this is a correct decision, of course, is a painful decision - not to buy European debt, the United States can not buy more debt, China's foreign exchange reserves to buy what? From the beginning of the euro on Friday afternoon appeared Powei trend, although the U.S. payrolls data range, far less than expected, but the euro is still down after a brief recovery, which indicates that the euro will move closer to the rail under the shock City, probably in the week fell below the 14000 mark integer. The origin of the European debt crisis is the continued decline in competitiveness in the euro area. Before this competition decreased only two or three countries in line, and the debt crisis in Europe is a meeting after the rescue, theeuro zone countries have a obvious weakness. In August, economic data from the core countries of the euro zone were issued with a very negative warning, including Germany's August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index, with a final value of 50.9, expected to be 52, the lowest since September 2009. France's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was worse in August, only 49.1. German and French data show that the region's two most powerful countries, the real economy has been growing at almost zero. Although we cannot conclude that Germany and France is a country like Greece dragged down -- save people dragged down is normal, but the conclusion that Germany and France have no spare capacity to save the eurozone two or three countries, is the fact that. Without the economic support of France and France, what happens in the euro area can be expected, and a strong euro is not expected. The second reason for the inevitable occurrence of the European debt crisis is that the rescue plan is impractical. The source of the European debt crisis is the most euro zone countries are a serious violation of financial discipline, but the EU's rescue plan is that Germany and France including the European Central Bank are a serious violation of financial discipline, the use of public funds and savings deposits to buy euro zone government debt line two or three. The results, although we can not say that By no means retrievable, at least to the recipient countries to send the wrong signal, can rely on big body, creditors who. Learned from the foreign media reports, the European Central Bank (ECB) last month decided to purchase the bonds of Italy, the country clearly slow budget consolidation measures.Italy's prime minister Berlusconi's promises to cut huge public debt have gone into empty talk. German media simply said:"because the European Central Bank's intervention, resulting in Italy budget measures even more confusing.". The European Central Bank to buy the bonds of Italy, every budget measures in Italy, the country's bond yields vary due to debt purchase operations of the European Central Bank to decline, the Italy government issued a signal to reduce the deficit can relax. Therefore, the decision to buy Italy's national debt was wrong. It's not just the European central bank that made the mistake. The solution of the European debt crisis is only one, is to give up the tail, the strong euro policy. Of course, this is extremely painful, and the extent of the pain is likely to exceed that of the US subprime crisis in 2008. Third reasons why the debt crisis is inevitable happened 17 euro zone countries is a mess, but not as strong as steel making. The European debt crisis spread from Greece to Ireland, where euro zone leaders gathered countless times, and each time made a statement to the world, showing how strong the euro zone was and how powerful it was. But as soon as the meeting is over, the noise is immediately transmitted through the media, and the small action is constant. Fourth reasons why the debt crisis inevitably happened in real is the main countries of the euro zone leaders lack the political sensitivity andforward-looking, misjudge the situation. How to solve the European debt crisis? It's difficult to drag out September, and the solution is not to buy bonds of troubled countries in the euro area, nor to create what is known as the euro zone's unified bond market. The only way is docked, Greece should be expelled from the euro zone. But objectively speaking, the best moment has been missed, because Italy, the euro zone third, which is much larger than Greece, will have an accident, followed by Spain, Portugal, ireland. To save it, the euro zone has no suchstrength. The last way is to push the euro zone high debt countries selling assets to repay, but the price is only suihangjiushi. The market would work only if the offer was lower, which would require a fall in the euro! To be sure, the ultimate solution to the European debt crisis is to be assessed after the euro crash. Today, the euro has fallen below the European Central Bank's defense line 13850, the lowest drop to 13386, will need at least 15% decline in the future. What about China? Only to see, can not buy, do not want to cover. Foreign exchange reserves are "cocktail", the euro is relative to other currencies down, the euro fell, the dollar will rise, and other currencies will rise. We can be thankful that holdings of euro assets are not many, 1/4 foreign exchange reserves in value, another 3/4 of the reserves in the appreciation of the euro, even if we suffer greatly, loss is not big. The problem is that the euro can not be bought in the future, and the foreign exchange reserves can not continue to increase substantially. The lessons of the European debt crisis tell us not only about the problems in the euro zone countries, but also that the currencies of almost all countries in the world are unreliable. The sure solution is not to expand the reserves indefinitely, but to spend the reserves.The spread of the European debt crisisThe European debt crisis is spreading to the core of the euro zone, this time in france. Moodie, a prominent rating agency, has warned that in the next 3 months whether to consider the French Treasury AAA rating "negative" will be considered". Negative observation is often the prelude to a downgrade. Moodie said in a statement, as with other euro zone sovereigncountries, France's financial position has weakened; the global financial and economic crisis in France, led to the financial indicators is the worst in other AAA countries. At present, a total of 6 countries enjoy the euro area AAA rating, namely France, Germany, Holland, Finland, Austria and Luxemburg, France's highest level of debt. IMF said public debt in France would reach 85% of GDP in 2011 and high in the world class AAA countries. The spread between French and German bunds widened to a record 93.2 basis points in October 17th, compared with just 29 basis points in April. A new wave of pressure on the French rating was largely caused by the exposure of its banking system to sovereign debt in Europe, as well as increased bailouts for other countries. The European Union is preparing to require European banks to increase the size and quality of their core capital, and the government will inject capital into substandard banks. Besides its own burden, France, the second largest economy in the euro area, is the second largest contributor to EU bailout funds. The euro zone is now studying how to expand the size of EFSF's borrowing to prevent a larger economy, such as Italy and Spain, into a crisis, which will add to the burden on public finances in france. In addition, the French economic growth situation also makes public finances not optimistic. In October 18 Pakistan Lu admitted that the forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of 1.75% will be too optimistic.Faubion Zulegdze, the chief economist at the European Policy Centre, argues that France is not very different from Spain in terms of its economic growth potential. The pressure on France's sovereign rating will make it harder for the euro zone to respond to the debt crisis. At present, the AAA rating of EFSF is based on the rating levels of the various fundedcountries, so Moodie also said in 17, if France suffered a downgrade, EFSF's highest rating will be questioned. In response, Europe is working to advance the permanent crisis response mechanism, the European stability mechanism (ESM). The most important feature of ESM is that it enjoys the status of an international institution like IMF without the impact of the investor rating. As scheduled, ESM will replace EFSF in the summer of 2013, but now Europe hopes to advance it by a year, at least in 2012。
欧债危机发生及影响
欧洲债务危机European debt crisis即欧洲主权的债务危机。
其是指在2008年金融危机发生后，希腊等欧盟国家(European Union countries)所发生的债务危机。
一、主权债务主权债务Sovereign Debt 是指一国以自己的主权为担保向外，不管是向国际货币基金组织还是向世界银行，还是向其他国家借来的债务。
二、主权债务违约现在很多国家，随着救市规模不断的扩大，债务的比重也在大幅度的增加。
当这个危机爆发到一定阶段的时候可能会出现主权违约，当一国不能偿付其主权债务时发生的违约。
传统的主权违约的解决方式主要是两种：·违约国家向世界银行或者是国际货币基金组织等借款;·与债权国就债务利率、还债时间和本金进行商讨。
三、主权信用评价主权信用评级体现一国的可能性，评级机构依照一定的程序和方法对主权机构（通常是主权国家）的政治、经济和信用等级进行评定，并用一定的符号来表示评级结果。
主权评级涉及的内容很广，除了考虑GDP的增长趋势、对外贸易、国际收支情况、外汇储备、外债总量及结构、财政收支、政策实施等影响国家偿还能力的因素，还要对金融体制改革、国企改革、社会保障体制改革所造成的财政负担进行分析欧洲债务危机进程一、概述开端：2008年12月全球三大评级公司下调希腊主权评级，希腊的债务危机随即愈演愈烈，但金融界认为希腊经济体系小，发生债务危机影响不会扩大。
发展：欧洲其它国家也开始陷入危机，包括比利时这些外界认为较稳健的国家，及欧元区内经济实力较强的西班牙，都预报未来三年预算赤字居高不下，希腊已非危机主角，整个欧盟都受到债务危机困扰。
蔓延：德国等欧元区的龙头国都开始感受到危机的影响，因为欧元大幅下跌，加上欧洲股市暴挫，整个欧元区正面对成立十一年以来最严峻的考验，有评论家更推测欧元区最终会解体收场。
升级：2011年7月27日标普下调希腊评级至“CC”，展望为负面。
标普认为欧盟的希腊债务重组计划是“廉价交换”，看似希腊债务交换和展期选项“对投资者不利”，希腊债务重组相当于“选择性违约”。
欧洲主权债务危机
主权债务危机
• 主权债务(sovereign debt)是指一国以自己的主权为担保向 外，不管是向国际货币基金组织还是向世界银行，还是向 其他国家借来的债务。 • IMF统计显示，在1824年到2004年间全球共有257起主权 债务违约事件发生。所谓主权债务危机是指一国政府以自 己的主权为担保借债，在债务到期时不能或不愿及时履行 偿付义务而发生的违约。
• 冰岛金融业“连累”冰岛成为第一个被称为“国家破产” 的国家。 • 由企业破产引申而来的“国家破产”，实质是指一个国家 的主权信用危机，具体是指一国政府失信、不能及时履行 对外债务偿付义务的风险。 • 冰岛，32万人，人均GDP是世界第4的北欧小国，已被笼 罩上国家破产的阴影，冰岛政府不得不挑起9倍于GDP的 银行负债重担。
• 冰岛外债超过1383亿美元 ,但国内生产总值仅为193亿美元 • 银行从国外借款，以欧元和美元表示，然后用外币贷给本 国居民，当本币汇率大幅贬值的时候（兑欧元汇率下跌8 成），则还款困难 • 三大银行全部国有化
• 冰島因為人口少，福利幾乎到了無所不包的程度：生病 不必發愁，因為醫療費用幾乎全包﹔上學不用掏錢，直 到大學都是如此﹔孩子多不必緊張，每個不滿18歲的孩 子冰島都會發放足夠生活所用的補貼﹔失業后的福利金 與上班時所賺工資相差不大﹔病假、產假期間不僅幾乎 全額領取工資，即使公司裁員，對這部分人也有“豁 免”。
欧债危机ppt英文版
Euro Zone Policy System
10-year government bond interest rate spread between five countries and German
Euro Zone Policy System
• Undesirable Regulation of Euro Zone
1. Euro Zone Policy System 2. Large Budget Deficit 3. 2008 Global Financial Crisis
Euro Zone Policy System
Institutional defect of Euro Zone a) the duality of fiscal and monetary policy b) the layer of decision-making mechanism
2).debt write-off and restructuring
Long-term suggestions
1).integration of euro zone
The Euro zone should rebuild its fiscal system, which would coordinate the fiscal policy in each country soundly.
2).regulation of government debt
The Euro zone should strengthen the regulation of government fiscal deficit.
3).economic growth
The real solution to the debt crisis is economic growth.
欧债危机The_European_Debt_Crisis
Threat to global economic and financial stability • IMF on April 20 and 21, has released "Global Financial Stability Report" and "World Economic Outlook", the developed countries have expressed concerns about sovereign debt risk. The IMF "World Economic Outlook report," said the short term, the main risk is that if left unchecked, the Greek sovereign debt market liquidity and solvency concerns, may evolve into a fully sovereign debt crisis, and the formation of a kinds of spreading.
The European Debt Crisis
Contents
Definition Causes
Effects Solutions
European debt crisis mainly refers to sovereign debt crisis.The European sovereign debt crisis begins in
If potential lenders or bond purchasers begin to suspect that a government may fail to pay back its debt, they may demand a high interest rate in compensation for the risk of default. A dramatic rise in the interest rate faced by a government due to fear that it will fail to honor its debt is sometimes called a sovereign debt crisis.
欧洲主权债务危机
如何解决欧洲债务为
危机国家已经无法凭借一己之力解决自身的痼疾，周边国家、机构的援助方案与援助力度 将在很大程度上决定危机的进程。 德国作为欧元区内经济总量最大的主权国家，其对危机国家的救助意愿与救助能力将成为 左右危机发展态势的重要因素。如前文所述，德国经济与财政状况正在逐步恢复，前景较 为乐观，因此德国有余力向危机国家提供帮助。从另一角度出发，稳定和谐的欧元区是德 国经济增长的重要保障，德国自身已无法游离于欧元区之外而独善其身。一方面，欧洲货 币一体化进程基本是一个不可逆的过程，这决定了德国难以退出欧元区；另一方面，德国 也不可能坐视危机国家的问题恶化而“隔岸观火”，一体化的制度设计注定是“牵一发而 动全身”，只有共同发展才是唯一的出路。因此，德国有救助危机国家的意愿。虽然此前 德国国内在救助问题上纷争不断，但只有实实在在地向危机国家伸出救助之手，才真正符 合德国自身利益。2011年7月中旬，经过国内的激烈争论，德国政府宣布将与欧洲央行和 国际货币基金组织（IMF）协调确定针对希腊的第二轮救助计划。法国国内形势虽没有德 国乐观，但情况较为相似。如果德法能够在救助问题上进一步通力合作，则救助进程将可 能大大缩短。 在针对本次危机的救助过程中，欧洲央行、欧盟委员会、国际货币基金组织等机构纷纷向 危机国家提出应对方案，伸出援助之手。希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙均先后向欧盟委员会申请 救援，救助方案正处于制定之中或执行初期。这些组织对爱尔兰的救助是一个较为成功的 案例。2010年末，爱尔兰与欧盟和国际货币基金组织就接受850亿欧元援助达成协议。根 据协议规定，国际货币基金组织、欧盟委员会和欧洲央行的联合审查组将每季度对爱尔兰 财政、金融、经济情况以及推进救助计划的成效进行审查。2011年7月中旬的审查结果显 示，救助计划如期推进，资金运用状况良好，爱尔兰政府稳步实施了协议规定的相关举措， 对行业工资进行了一些有益的调整，尤其重点调整了一些目前失业率较高行业的工资结构。 这些调整对于宏观经济供给层面的复苏具有积极意义。此次审议后，爱尔兰将再度获得40 亿欧元的救助资金。
欧债危机详解
CRISIS
除了债务成本上升 以外，也会触发金 融机构流动性风险 的出现
评级机构-危机的火上浇油！
95年英国巴林银行破产-美国银行评级 97年亚洲金融危机 次贷危机 评级机构只是匆忙应对 降级过激 加剧危机破坏性
THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT
CRISIS
评级的威力
作为债券市场的重要服务 性机构，评级机构的主要 作用是警示风险，但他们 往往对风险视而不见，反 而成为金融危机的始作俑 者。在近几年发生的多次 危机中评级机构多次扮演 了落井下石的角色。
欧元区历史大事件
二战后的钢铁联盟 一体化进程-经济联盟-货币联盟-财政联盟-货币联盟
THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT
CRISIS
1968年7月1日 关税同盟生效，取消了欧盟内部工业产品流通 关税，制定了共同对外关税税则。 1968年7月29日 欧盟内部劳务自由流通。 1972年3月 创立“洞中之蛇”汇率制度，使各国货币浮动幅 度降至2.25%。 1973年1月 丹麦、英国和爱尔兰加入欧洲经济共同体，使共 同体扩为9国。 1975年2月28日 签署洛美公约，同44个非洲、加勒比和太平 洋国家建立联系。 1978年4月3日 同中国签署《贸易协定》。 1978年 欧洲煤钢联营、欧洲经济共同体和欧洲原子能委员会 合为欧洲共体（EC）。 1979年3月13日 埃居体系取代货币蛇型浮动体系；欧洲货币 单位（埃居）成为欧洲记账单位。
欧洲问题上的根本解决方案
中国的战国时代 德国对于利弊之间的权衡 德国的底线在哪里？
THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT
CRISIS
未来欧债危机可能的四种结局： 1，第一种结局：欧元区建立统一的财政货币政策，使得欧债危机 得到彻底解决； 欧元区统一债券：欧元区17过共同担保-停发各国债券（主权税收 权）-共同担保为部分重要债务国融资设立拥有更大权利的欧元区中央财政机构 2，第二种结局：欧洲领导人同意扩容救助基金，通过通货膨胀缓 解欧债危机； 欧洲央行发钞充当最后借款人-违背欧洲央行把保持比值稳定作为货 币政策为目标 3，第三种结局：希腊退出葡萄牙西班牙随后，欧洲央行被迫大局 买入债券救助，随后德国等财政强国失去信心退出欧洲区使用自身 的货币； 4，第四种结局：欧元区强化纪律将希腊剔除欧元区，同时对西班 牙和葡萄牙救助，同时要求西班牙和葡萄牙遵守救助附加条款。
欧债危机 汉英翻译 yxl
Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis欧债危机The Greek debt crisis is spreading. Europe needs a bolder, broader solution—and quickly希腊债务危机正在蔓延。
欧洲急需一个果敢又全面的方针。
There comes a moment in many debt crises when events spiral out of control. As panic sets in, bond yields lurch sickeningly upwards and fear spreads to shares and currencies. In September 2008 the failure of once-stellar Lehman Brothers almost brought down the world’s banking system. A decade earlier, Russia’s chaotic default （违约）on its sovereign debt rocked the credit markets, felling Long Term Capital Management, a hugely profitable American hedge fund. When the unthinkable suddenly becomes the inevitable, without pausing in the realm of the improbable, then you have contagion（接触传染，金融风暴）.很多债务危机都会有局面失控的时候。
随着恐慌产生，公债利息一路猛涨，股市和汇市随即一片恐慌。
2008年9月，美国明星投行雷曼兄弟的丢盔弃甲差点把整个世界的银行系统拖下水。
欧债危机PPT
Interpretation
:T
he European Sovereign
Debt Crisis
目录
欧洲债务危机 危机产生的原因 危机造成的影响
即欧洲主权的债务危机。其是 指在2008年金融危机发生后，希腊等欧盟国 家所发生的债务危机
欧洲债务危机
开端 发展
——星星之火，可以燎原！ 星星之火，可以燎原！
比利时、 比利时、西 班牙等欧洲 其它国家也 开始陷入危 机，希腊已 非危机主角。 非危机主角。
开端
去年十二月全球三大评级公司 下调希腊主权评级， 下调希腊主权评级，希腊的债务危 机随即愈演愈烈， 机随即愈演愈烈，但金融界认为希 腊经济体系小， 腊经济体系小，发生债务危机影响 不会扩大。 不会扩大。 2009年12月 2009年12月8日 惠誉将希腊信 贷评级由A 下调至BBB+ BBB+， 贷评级由A-下调至BBB+，前景展望 为负面。 为负面。 2009年12月15日 希腊发售20 20亿 2009年12月15日 希腊发售20亿 欧元国债。 欧元国债。 2009年12月16日 2009年12月16日 标准普尔将希 腊的长期主权信用评级由“ 腊的长期主权信用评级由“A－”下 调为“BBB＋ 调为“BBB＋”。 2009年12月22日 穆迪09 12月 09年 2009年12月22日 穆迪09年12月 22日宣布将希腊主权评级从A1下调 日宣布将希腊主权评级从A1 22日宣布将希腊主权评级从A1下调 A2，评级展望为负面。 到A2，评级展望为负面。
欧元区财政货币政策二元性从而导致了主权债 务问题的产生。 务问题的产生。 （借钱过度）
根源
欧元区各国（ 国家） 欧元区各国（如PIIGS国家）内部经济失衡是 国家 引发债务问题的深层原因。 引发债务问题的深层原因。 （还钱能力差） 欧盟内外部的结构性矛盾是债务危机爆发的制 度性因素。 度性因素。 （发展不平衡）
European debt crisis 欧债危机-文档资料
Spread
Germany and other leading euro-zone countries have begun to feel the impact of the crisis, the euro is facing the most severe test since the establishment
Causes of debt crisis
Industrial structure
The entity economy is hollow and the economic development is fragile.
Iture
The aging trend in the Greek is accelerated
Social welfare system
The social welfare system is so well ,so Fiscal expenditure is too huge to repay the debt in the Greek .
Details
First, the sovereign debt problem is actually a continuation of the financial crisis and deepening. Second, the duality of the euro area fiscal and monetary policy has led to sovereign debt problems. Third, the euro-zone countries is caused by internal imbalances the underlying causes of debt problems. Fourth, the EU's external debt crisis, structural contradictions are factors in the system.
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性，平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益，请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间：9:00-18:30)。
相关评论
“结果显示欧元区与最优货币区差距甚远” ——希腊基金经理贾森 马诺洛普洛斯 贾森·马诺洛普洛斯 贾森 “正在浮现的主权债务危机……是西方世界的财政 危机” ——英国经济学者尼埃尔·费格逊 “美元面临的处境可能比欧元还要危险 ” ——《金融时报》
中国该如何面对? 中国该如何面对
欧洲债务危机前的国内经济政策调整
Hale Waihona Puke 欧洲债务危机影响下的国内政策调整
产业升级势在必行
导语： 导语：欧元区的崩溃绝不仅仅是一场金融动荡。近一百年来欧洲人 为了欧洲避免战争和复兴的梦想也将付之一炬。
欧债危机概述
欧洲主权债务危机爆发的主要引线或导火索可以说 是希腊。即 希腊在2001年达到了欧盟的财赤率要求， 同年加入欧元区。但是， 这一过程对希腊国家而言， 所付出的代价也是相当巨大的。具体而 言，希腊为 了尽可能缩减自身外币债务，与高盛签订了一个货 币互 换协议。这样，希腊就通过货币互换协议减少 了自身的外币债务，达 到足够的财赤率加入欧元区。 但通过与高盛所签订的协议来看，希腊就必须在未 来很长一段时间内支付给对方高于市价的高额回报。 随着时间的推移，希腊的赤字率显然会走入低迷状 态，进而导致了 2009 年的主权债务危机形成。
1.金融危机中政府加杠杆化使债务 金融危机中政府加杠杆化使债务 负担加重
外部原因 欧 债 危 机
1.产业结构不平衡：实体经济 产业结构不平衡： 产业结构不平衡 空心化， 空心化，经济发展脆弱 2.评级机构煽风点火，助推危机 评级机构煽风点火， 评级机构煽风点火 蔓延
内部原因
2.人口结构不平衡：逐步进入 人口结构不平衡： 人口结构不平衡 老龄化 3.刚性的社会福利制度 刚性的社会福利制度