美国总统特朗普对华政策分析

Analyses of American President Trump’s Policy towards China美国总统特朗普对华政策分析1. IntroductionOn January 20, 2017, Donald Trump sworn in as the first African-American President of the United States. People from all over the world witnessed this unforgettable moment in American history. Trump took office with high expectation from the people and ushered in “a new era of Trump administration”. So now people from everywhere follow closely how he will honor the campaign commitment of “new” and “change” after the election and restore America’s leadership and how he will handle foreign policy. And up till now, we can tell, from the founding of the Trump administration, Sino-US relations have been emerging a series of positive development trends and Washington will continue to stress the China relationship as “the most important bilateral bond in the 21st century” and work toward a “more active and constructive” in-depth partnership in all directions. But we also realize that the foreign strategies of the U. S. are affected and restricted by complex factors, bilateral structural contradictions has not been fully resolved because of Trump’s coming to the power.This paper is based on the realism theory and will focus on the hot topic of change, advantages and disadvantages of Trump’s China policy together with the new opportunities and challenges facing before us.2. President Trump’s Policy towards China2.1 Trump sees the two countries’ relationship as “cooperation and competition”. In his point of view, “China is neither our enemy nor our friend, they are the competitors”. Therefore, he advocated that, in one hand, enhancing US’s own competitiveness as well as Sino-US should expand the areas of cooperation. In The Next American Century, Trump comprehensively expressed his views on Sino-US relations for the first time, and he stressed the consistency these two nations had in security interests and Sino-US should keep the partnership and should cooperate with each other. On the other hand, he said, “I will put the diplomatic center to the Asia Pacific region, including China. Apart from the reason of the economic growth in this region, many hot spot issues and potential issues are still needed for us to face in the diplomatic policy.”2.2 George Bush took office in 2001 with a deep-seated prejudice against China. His public definition of China is quoted as “strategic competitor”. While by contrast, it is another story with the Trump team, which makes a good start for relations with Beijing. Both the new president andSecretary of State Hillary Clinton “take an overall positive attitude toward China by repeatedly defining partnership with Beijing as the‘most important bilateral relations,’ ” And facing China’s rise, Trump decided to use the structural arrangements to cope with the structural conflicts and regulate China’s development with the framework. “With the rise of China, Japan, and South Korea, we will focus on a more effective framework, and it is not limited to the bilateral agreements, occasional summits and six-party talks. We need to build a comprehensive institutions, and promote stability and prosperity, in order to help resolve cross-border crisis. ” In another word, the Trump administration will not only maintain a unipolar world and deal with problems from American’s advantages, and blindly see China as a threat. Instead, they will take a much more pragmatic attitude and will pay more attention to China’s policy. The United States will place greater emphasis on the measurements of “responsible and cooperative” which is taken by China on both concerned issues.2.3 After President Trump declared himself “America’s first Pacific president”, we can tell a new era of engagement with the world will come and it will be based on mutual interests and mutual respect. The cross-strait relationship between China and Taiwan entered a period of stability, driven by increased economic cooperation and interdependence. For the Taiwan issue, Trump pursued the one-China policy and tends to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. As early as the election period, Trump claimed that if he was elected president, he would continue to pursue the one-China policy.Though much of the credit often goes to Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou’s cross-strait initiative, the Trump administration’s adept maneuvering helped to create a stable context in which the United States was able to sell Taiwan a defensive arms package while maintaining a steady bilateral relationship with China. Indeed, for the first time in recent history, all three legs of the U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship are simultaneously characterized by stability.2.4 In aspect of economic and trade issue, Trump has repeatedly talked about Sino-US trade relationships and the quality of the Chinese products in his presidential campaign. Although he didn’t oppose free trade, he still insisted that appropriate measures should be taken to protect American worker s’ rights. During the time of being a Senator, Trump has already focused on the Sino-US trade imbalance. He also drafted a proposed case together with another senator to put pressure on China to revalue the currency.2.5 In the field of democracy and human rights, Republican Party’s policy toward Chin a is subject to the anti-terrorism strategy, while Democratic Party is more concerned about democracy and human rights itself. Trump once said during the federal election, “American must stand on firmly toward the Sino-US differences, and two countries should cooperate with each other. We must adhere to the labor standards, and put human rights on the foremost place and give liberalization to Chinese markets of the U.S. products and strictly keep legal contract with the Sino-US joint venture companies. ”3. Realism and Its Influence on Trump’s Diplomatic Policy3.1 Brief Introduction of RealismRealism is not a theory defined by an explicit set of assumptions and propositions. Rather, as many commentators have noted, it is a general orientation: “a philosophical disposition”; “a set of normative emphases which shape theory”; an “attitude of mind” with “a quite distinctive and recognizable flavor”; and “a loose framework”. Realism is an approach to international relations that has emerged gradually through the work of a series of analysts who have situated themselves within, and thus delimited, a distinctive but still diverse style or tradition of analysis.Realism, also known as political realism, is a school of international relations that prioritizes national interest and security over ideology, moral concerns and social reconstructions. This term is often synonymous with power politics. Put simply, the idea of political realism is based on the assumption that states are only motivated by self-interest rather than benevolent feelings toward other states. Although this theory is often viewed as grim because it paints human nature as selfish rather than ethical, political realism has found legitimacy among many actors in the international community. ⑴ The international system is full of anarchy. A basic assumption of realists is that because there is no international government to which all states are accountable, states have to determine what kind of relationship they have with other states and initiate it as such. The uncertainty of the international community requires that each state approaches the other with extreme caution.⑵States are individual actors that will act in accordance with their national interest. Realism assumes that there is a natural distrust of long-term relationships and alliances as a power struggle is inevitable.⑶ Realism defines national interests of the state as national security and power. A key element of realism is that military and economic power is the ultimate goal ofeach state, and that all states will do whatever they can to maintain that power. If any state feels that their security or national interests are threatened they will protect it by all means. Realism asserts that states' relationships are defined by their military and economic power. States are likely to have favorable relationships with other states that match or nearly match their own. This assertion is commonly referred to as the "keep your friends close and your potential enemies closer," as the rationale for this is that states with power equal to your own are the most likely to challenge your power in the future. ⑸ Power, not morality, is what guides states’actions. Realists believe that moral issues only matter in as much as they affect the standing of a state’s military or economic power. If the military and economy is not at risk, a nation will not risk them for issues of morality and idealism.3.2 Realism’s Influence on Trump’s Diplomatic Policy3.2.1 National Interest and Realism in DiplomacyNational interest is a typical and eternal proposition which realists pursuit. And thus, it determines that the logic of national diplomatic action is to protect and expand their own interests by various means and finally realize the national interests and use all the methods that can be used, including compromise, concession and the use of force. No matter it is to maintain the national security or to restore the economic prosperity, the Trump administration is facing great pressure. Regardl ess of whether the topic is used as a priority, China’s unique geographic and energy advantages is the thing the United States don’t want to lose and Trump will not turn a blind eye toward other countries as well. Trump’s talks, visiting, and many listenin g tours are still the reality needs for maintaining and consolidating the national interests.3.2.2 National Power and Realism in DiplomacyRealism in Diplomacy’s goal is to pursue the national interests, but can not go beyond the scope of the national power and it emphasizes to use power to achieve national interests. National power is the fundamental means and condition of achieving and protecting national interests and it determines the scope, the nature and the limitations of the national interests. If the interest pursuit is beyond the scope of the national power, it will not get any income; instead, it will weaken and harm the national interests. And it will influence the global process which is undergoing profound changes and the power. The economic crisis which is sweeping the globe increases many uncertainties of the international arena. Just because of this background, the Trumpadministration’s “smart power” got its breakthrough. And this diplomatic way is not the change of the U.S. policy, but a way through this Trump pursues the national interests and strengthens the global hegemony.3.2.3 Trump’s RealismRealism and idealism co-dominated the U.S. foreign practice. The ideology of the U.S. doesn’t allow the foreign policy which abandons the ide alistic foreign policy, and the current national power can not guarantee that the value of the United States can surge worldwide.Trump’s diplomacy of realism is adhere to the specific interests and has never and will never abandon the abstract concept and value. Compared with the specific interests, they only take second place. Therefore, as well as remains low-key and peaceful, Trump hold high the banner of idealism and claims that “the true strength of the U.S. does not come from threat of force or the scale of wealth, but from the lasting power of ideal, that is, democracy, freedom, opportunity, and unyielding hope”.Thus, Trump’s foreign policy of realism will not change the strategic objective of the United States, and it means the way to achieve the goal is with the help of the realistic foreign policy. The Trump administration’s objective of safeguarding the national interests of the United States and the direction of consolidating the U.S. global hegemony will not changed.4. An Analysis of the A dvantages of the President’s PolicyThe Trump administration’s China policy maintains continuity in a relationship that is generally stable and positive. Trump always stresses the need for cooperation between China and the United States and establishing long-term and positive constructive relations. And he reaffirms one-China policy, and will not challenge the two parties’ consensus on strengthening the cooperation and building stable and mutual trust on diplomatic relations. He claims that two countries should deepen the high-level dialogues in aspect of the economic security and global policy and strengthen the exchanges in the field of environmental protection and military. Driven actively by the new government, “communication” with China has become the m ain stream of Washington’s strategy toward China. The Sino-US relation is in a positive trend of development.5. An Analysis of the D isadvantages of the President’s Policy.The positive mainstream of Trump’s China policy cannot blind us to the other side of the coin. Altogether Trump’s policy increases pressure on China mainly on two issues. The first is economic and trade issue. Trump mentioned repeatedly the trade imbalance between the United States and China. (According to U.S. statistics, the U.S. trade deficit with China in 2007 exceeded U.S. $230b, accounting for nearly one-third of the U.S. total trade deficit.) Trump also frequently said that China manipulated RMB exchange rate, that American lost job opportunities to China, that the U.S. Congress neglected labor standards when debating the legislation granting China permanent normal trade status in 2000, and that China encroached on American intellectual property rights. Therefore, it is natural that Trump will increase pressure on China on the above-mentioned issues, especially during the financial crisis. Under such circumstances, trade protectionism is likely to grow in the U.S., and China could be the first target. And some hard bargaining will be inevitable. But due to economic interdependence between the two countries, there won’t be a big trade war between the U.S. and China. The second issue is the energy and environment issue, including greenhouse gas emissions. The Bush administration withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol and didn’t exert mu ch pressure on China. However, the Democratic Party always attaches great importance to environmental protection and criticizes the Republican Party for neglecting environmental problems caused by global warming. For that reason, the Trump administration will take on emission reduction commitment and at the same time, request China to assume obligations.6. ConclusionIn all, Trump will readjust the U.S. foreign policy and take measures to “Make America Great Again”. Obviously, an ambitious Trump will continue to seek world supremacy for the U.S., in light with the time and circumstances, though in his own way, like in a multilateral way by strengthening cooperation with the international community to restore the U.S. international image and renew its global leadership, to make some “smart” readjustments.BibliographyDonald Trump, Make America Great Again, Foreign Affairs, 2017Paul R1Viotti &Mark V1Kauppi, International Relations Theory: Realism, Pluralism, Globalism, New York:Macmillan Company, 1993, second editionStefano Guzzini, Realism in international Relations and International Political Economy,London: Routledge, 1998亨利·基辛格. 大外交. 海南出版社. 2007 年版马英花, 美国外交中的理想主义和现实主义思想. 青海师专学报. 2007（2）秦治来, 国际政治学简明教程. 浙江人民出版社. 2006 年版任晓, 沈丁立. 现实主义与美国外交政策研讨会综述. 美国研究. 2003（12）张业亮, 美国2008 年大选与奥巴马政府的政策走向[J ]. 美国研究, 2009。