外贸外文翻译---对中国外汇储备快速增长的反思

附录

Rethinking Fast Growth in China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

I．Introduction

Since2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 hadreached US$286.4bn. By the end of2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reachedUS$609.9bn. In l 999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for l 5.6 percent of itsGDP. The ratio has been growing continually and Was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004, making China the second largest foreign exchange reserve holder in the worldafter Japan. Statistics released by Japan’s Ministry ofFinance on 7 July 2005 show that by the end of June the same year, Japan’foreign exchange reserve were valued at US$43.5bn.

China has reserves ofUS$771 bn by the end ofJune 2005. However, China has a larger ratioofforeign exchange reserve to GDP than Japan. In 2005, China’s ratio offoreign exchangereserve to GDP was 37 percent, whereas that of Japan was 18 percent. By the end ofDecember 2005, China’s foreign exchange reserves had expanded further to reach US$818.87bn.

II．Cause of China’s Sustained High Growth

of Foreign Exchange Reserves

The main re ason for China’s sustained fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves in recentyears, is continual surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance ofpayments. In terms of sources, foreign exchange reserves can be divided into creditor’s rights-based reserve and debt-based reserve. The former is reserve from current accounts, whereas the latter is from the capital accounts．Foreign exchange reserves of developingcountries are mainly composed ofdebt-based reserve. Since the latter halfofthe 1990s, thestructure of China’s foreign exchange reserve sources has undergone significant change. From 1994 to 1996, China’s foreign exchange reserves were mainly composed of debt-based reserve. The increased foreign exchange

reserves mainly came from capital accountsurplus, which mainly resulted from the increase in foreign direct investment(FDI)．Since 1997, the creditor’s rights segment ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves has gradually becomemore increased. However, during 2003-2004 the debt-based reserve rebounded dramatically. In that period,the capital account surplus soared from US$52.726bn in 2003 to US$110.66bnin2004, andChina’s foreignexchangereservesincreasedbyUS$206.681bnin2004. Thiswasclosely related to the continually growing expectations toward renminbi revaluation and theinflux ofinternational“hot money”in pursuit of speculative gain s.

It is noteworthy that since 2004, the expectation for renminbi appreciation has beengrowing continually and a large amount of speculative capitalhas swarmed in. The Central Bank has adopted a compulsory foreign exchange settlement policy to maintainthe relative stability of the renminbi exchange rate, which is an important factor behindexpanding foreign exchange reserves. Seen from the current situation and the developmenttrend in the near future, the factors that have caused expansion ofChina’s foreign exchangereserves will continue.

Admittedly, the sustained surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments in recent yearsare the main reason for its continually fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves. However, two fundamental factors are worthconsidering：(i)flaws in the formation of the renminbi exchange rate regime are theinstitutional root cause of sustained high growth offoreign exchange reservesand(ii)thevarious theoretical misconceptions about China’s foreign exchange reserves have swayedpolicies and contributed to the sustained fast growth in China’s foreign exchange reserves.

In terms ofinstitutional causes, the eruption ofthe 1997 Asian financial crisis held back the process of the China’s reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime.The renminbi came under great pressure to depreciate. To maintain the stability of the renminbi exchange rate, there was a forceddeparturefromtheorigi nal“managedfloating exchange rate regime.”Inthewakeofthe crisis, the Chinese economy was afected by the global economic recession and worseningdeflation, whichhas graduallymadetherenminbiexchangerateregime shifttoafactor“US-dollar-pegged fixed exchange rate regime.”Apart from the external impacts, the errors inChina’s macroeconomic policies an d strategies, such as those concerning foreign trade, foreign capital, foreign exchange reserve and industrial policies, have led to a distortion in theformation ofthe renminbi exchange rate regime．An obvious feature of