2016年美国大学生数学建模竞赛题论文

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52557

Problem Chosen

E

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F4________________ 2016

MCM/ICM

Summary Sheet

(Your team's summary should be included as the first page of your electronic submission.)

Type a summary of your results on this page. Do not include the name of your school, advisor, or team members on this page.

Model of demand and supply of water resources

Summary

In this paper, a model is established to provide a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population, and find out the reason for the lack of water resources.Specific tasks are as

follows:

For Task 1: In the proposed model, we think the supply of clean water depends on the amount of surface water, underground water and sewage purification. The water requirements are decided by the amount of life

water, agricultural water and industrial water in the region. In water supply, surface water is affected by the

annual average temperature, annual average precipitation and forest coverage rate. The groundwater is impacted

by the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation. The agricultural water is affected by the

population of the region and annual average precipitation. The GDP of the region influences the industrial water

consumption. We use the principle of multivariate nonlinear regression to find out the regression coefficient.

And then make sure its function. The ratio of water supply and water requirements is used as a measure of the

ability of a region to provide clean water. We find that the ability of a region to provide clean water is good or

not by comparing the ratio with 1.

For Task 2: The model selects the Shandong Province of China as the testing region.We analyze the data of China's Shandong area between 2005 and 2014, and then crystallize the model through the thought of the

function fitting and multivariate nonlinear regression. By the model, we think Shandong province's ability to

provide clean water is weak.And then from two aspects which physical shortage and shortage of economic, this

paper analyses the causes of water shortage in Shandong Province, and thus test the applicability of the model.

For Task 3: We select several factors affecting water supply and water demand badly, which is annual precipitation, annual average temperature, the forest coverage rate and population forecast. We analyze the data

of China's Shandong area between 2005 and 2014, according which to predict the changes of those factors in 15

years. After that this paper uses proposed model to analyze the situation of Shandong’s water in 15 years.

For Task 4: According to the model in Task 1 and the analysis of the Task 2. We find the main factors influencing the ability to provide clean water in China's Shandong province. By these factors we make the

intervention program.In view of the low average annual rainfall, increase the average annual rainfall by artificial

rainfall.In view of the forest coverage rate, forest plantation and protect vegetation is came up with. For sewage

purification capacity, putting forward to improve sewage treatment technology and improve the sewage

conversion rate and increases daily sewage quantity. In view of the total population, we put forward the policy

of family planning for water consumption per capita, putting forward to set the daily water consumption per

person. And puttingforward the industrial wastewater must reach the indexes of the rules, developing seawater

desalination technology to increase the supply of clean water.

Water has always been the hot spot in the world.The future is also not exceptional. Only finding out the problem, we can suit the remedy to the case.The model measures the ability of a region to provide clean water

by analyzing the cases which influence the supply and remand of water. Based on this, make a good intervention

program. Offering helps to solve global water issues.

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