公司理财英文版课件Chap017
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公司理财-chapter-17课件
Chapter 17
Long-term financial planning
公司理财-chapter-17
1
Objectives
1. Describe the contents and uses of a financial plan. 2. Construct a simple financial planning model. 3. Estimate the effect of growth on the need for
9
Percentage of sales models
Percentage of sales models: planning model in which
sales forecasts are the driving variables and most other variables
are proportional to sales.
公司理财-chapter-17
12
An improved model
公司理财-chapter-17
13
Now suppose that you are asked to prepare pro forma financial statements for Executive Fruit for 2006.
• The plan is the end result. The process that produces the plan is valuable in its own right. Planning forces the financial manager to consider the combined effects of all the firm’s investment and financing decisions. This is important because these decisions interact and should not be made independently.
Long-term financial planning
公司理财-chapter-17
1
Objectives
1. Describe the contents and uses of a financial plan. 2. Construct a simple financial planning model. 3. Estimate the effect of growth on the need for
9
Percentage of sales models
Percentage of sales models: planning model in which
sales forecasts are the driving variables and most other variables
are proportional to sales.
公司理财-chapter-17
12
An improved model
公司理财-chapter-17
13
Now suppose that you are asked to prepare pro forma financial statements for Executive Fruit for 2006.
• The plan is the end result. The process that produces the plan is valuable in its own right. Planning forces the financial manager to consider the combined effects of all the firm’s investment and financing decisions. This is important because these decisions interact and should not be made independently.
公司理财原版英文课件Chap.ppt
Chapter 8
Interest Rates and Bond Valuation
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Concepts and Skills
PV
$31.875 .11 2
1
1 (1.055)10
$1,000 (1.055)10
$825.69
8-9
YTM and Bond Value
When the YTM < coupon, the bond
1300
trades at a premium.
Bond Value
Know the important bond features and bond types Understand bond values and why they fluctuate Understand bond ratings and what they mean Understand the impact of inflation on interest
Bond Concepts
Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions.
When coupon rate = YTM, price = par value
When coupon rate > YTM, price > par value (premium bond)
volatility with respect to changes in the discount rate.
Interest Rates and Bond Valuation
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Concepts and Skills
PV
$31.875 .11 2
1
1 (1.055)10
$1,000 (1.055)10
$825.69
8-9
YTM and Bond Value
When the YTM < coupon, the bond
1300
trades at a premium.
Bond Value
Know the important bond features and bond types Understand bond values and why they fluctuate Understand bond ratings and what they mean Understand the impact of inflation on interest
Bond Concepts
Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions.
When coupon rate = YTM, price = par value
When coupon rate > YTM, price > par value (premium bond)
volatility with respect to changes in the discount rate.
公司理财-chapter-7课件
Mutually exclusive projects: two or more projects that cannot be pursued simultaneously
公司理财-chapter-7
6
Net present value: 净现值 Opportunity cost of capital: 资金的机会成 本 Mutually exclusive projects: 互斥项目
Chapter 7
Net present value and other investment criteria
公司理财-chapter-7
1
Objectives
1. Calculate the net present value of an investment
2. Calculate the internal rate of return of a project and know what to look out for when using the internal rate of return rule
• The net present value rule states that managers increase shareholders’ wealth by accepting all projects that are worth more than they cost. Therefore, they should accept all projects with a positive net present value
3. Explain why the payback rule doesn’t always make shareholders better off
公司理财中英文课件 (17)
RM - RF
Var ( RM ) σM
3. The company beta, β = Cov( Ri , RM ) = σi , M i 2
Example 1
Suppose the stock of Stansfield Enterprises, a publisher of PowerPoint presentations, has a beta of 2.5. The firm is 100-percent equity financed. Assume a risk-free rate of 5-percent and a market risk premium of 10-percent. What is the appropriate discount rate for an expansion of this firm? R = R + β (R - R )
Example 2
【解答】
（1）将B公司的β权益转换为无负债的β资产。 β资产＝1.2÷[1＋（1—30%）×（7/10）]＝0.8054 （2）将无负债的β值转换为A公司含有负债的股东权益β值： β权益＝0.8054 ×[1＋（1—30%）×2／3]＝1.1813 （3）根据β权益计算A公司的权益成本。 权益成本＝5%＋1.1813 ×8%＝5%＋9.4504%＝14.45% 如果采用股东现金流量计算净现值，14.45%是适合的折现率。 （4）计算加权平均资本成本。 加权平均资本成本＝6%×（1—30%）×（2/5）＋14.45%×（3/5） ＝1.68%＋8.67%＝10.35% 如果采用实体现金流量法，10.35%是适合的折现率。
Ri = RF + βi ( RM - RF )
公司理财课件 Chpt017
APV NPV NPVF
APV $56.50 4 $19.20
t1 (1.08)t
APV $56.50 63.59 $7.09
• So, Pearson should accept the project with debt.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
17-3
17.1 Adjusted Present Value Approach
APV NPV NPVF
• The value of a project to the firm can be thought of as the value of the project to an unlevered firm (NPV) plus the present value of the financing side effects (NPVF):
• The second regards the use of debt (the capital structure question).
• This chapter is the nexus of these questions.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
17-6
APV Example (continued)
• Note that there are two ways to calculate the NPV
of the loan. Previously, we calculated the PV of the
APV $56.50 4 $19.20
t1 (1.08)t
APV $56.50 63.59 $7.09
• So, Pearson should accept the project with debt.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
17-3
17.1 Adjusted Present Value Approach
APV NPV NPVF
• The value of a project to the firm can be thought of as the value of the project to an unlevered firm (NPV) plus the present value of the financing side effects (NPVF):
• The second regards the use of debt (the capital structure question).
• This chapter is the nexus of these questions.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
17-6
APV Example (continued)
• Note that there are two ways to calculate the NPV
of the loan. Previously, we calculated the PV of the
公司理财中英文课件 (7)
14
Level-Coupon Bonds: Example
• 有一债券面值为1 000元，票面利率为8%，每半年支付一次利 息，5年到期。假设折现率为10%。
15
Level-Coupon Bonds ：Example
• 有一债券面值为1 000元，票面利率为8%，每半年支付一次利 息，5年到期。假设折现率为10%。 • 按惯例，票面利率8%是报价利率，是按年计算的名义利率， 每半年计息时计息期利率为其1/2，4%计息，每次支付40元。 • 除非特别指明，票面利率与必要报酬率采用同样的计息规则， 折现率10%，则半年期的折现率为5%，债券价值：
5
2 Valuation of Bonds
• 债券估价的基本模型： 债券价值就是未来现金流的折现。典型的债券是固定利率、每年计 算并支付利息、到期归还本金。按照这种模式，债券价值计算的基 本模型是： 债券价值＝未来各期利息的现值合计＋未来到期本金或售价的现值
• • • • •
PV—债券价值； I—每年的利息； M—到期的本金； i—折现率，一般采用当时的市场利率或投资人要求的必要报酬率 n—债券到期前的年数。
$C
0
$C
$C
$C $F
T
1
2
T 1
Value of a Level-coupon bond = PV of coupon payment annuity (年金)+ PV of face value
C 1 F PV 1 T r (1 r ) (1 r )T
8
Pure Discount Bonds (纯贴现债券)
Information needed for valuing pure discount bonds:
公司理财英文版课件Chap.ppt
• Case II – Assumptions – Corporate taxes, but no personal taxes – No bankruptcy costs
• Case III – Assumptions – Corporate taxes, but no personal taxes – Bankruptcy costs
16-15
Figure 16.3
16-16
Case I - Example
• Data
– Required return on assets = 16%; cost of debt = 10%; percent of debt = 45%
• What is the cost of equity?
16-6
Example: Financial Leverage, EPS and ROE – Part I
• We will ignore the effect of taxes at this stage
• What happens to EPS and ROE when we issue debt and buy back shares of stock?
• Proposition II
– The WACC of the firm is NOT affected by capital structure
16-14
Case I - Equations
• WACC = RA = (E/V)RE + (D/V)RD
• RE = RA + (RA – RD)(D/E)
– RA is the “cost” of the firm’s business risk, i.e., the risk of the firm’s assets
• Case III – Assumptions – Corporate taxes, but no personal taxes – Bankruptcy costs
16-15
Figure 16.3
16-16
Case I - Example
• Data
– Required return on assets = 16%; cost of debt = 10%; percent of debt = 45%
• What is the cost of equity?
16-6
Example: Financial Leverage, EPS and ROE – Part I
• We will ignore the effect of taxes at this stage
• What happens to EPS and ROE when we issue debt and buy back shares of stock?
• Proposition II
– The WACC of the firm is NOT affected by capital structure
16-14
Case I - Equations
• WACC = RA = (E/V)RE + (D/V)RD
• RE = RA + (RA – RD)(D/E)
– RA is the “cost” of the firm’s business risk, i.e., the risk of the firm’s assets
公司理财原版英文课件Chap
Ri Ri βi F εi
RP X 1 ( R1 β1 F ε1 ) X 2 ( R 2 β2 F ε2 ) X N ( R N βN F εN ) RP X 1 R1 X 1 β1 F X 1ε1 X 2 R 2 X 2 β2 F X 2 ε2 X N R N X N βN F X N ε N
R 8%
R 8% 2.30 5% 1.50 (3%) 0.50 (10%) 1% R 12%
12-12
12.3 Portfolios and Factor Models
Now let us consider what happens to portfolios of stocks when each of the stocks follows a one-factor model. We will create portfolios from a list of N stocks and will capture the systematic risk with a 1-factor model. The ith stock in the list has return:
R R 2.30 5% 1.50 (3%) 0.50 FS 1%
12-10
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
R R 2.30 5% 1.50 (3%) 0.50 FS 1%
If it were the case that the dollar-euro spot exchange rate, S($,€), was expected to increase by 10%, but in fact remained stable during the time period, then: FS = Surprise in the exchange rate = actual – expected = 0% – 10% = – 10%
RP X 1 ( R1 β1 F ε1 ) X 2 ( R 2 β2 F ε2 ) X N ( R N βN F εN ) RP X 1 R1 X 1 β1 F X 1ε1 X 2 R 2 X 2 β2 F X 2 ε2 X N R N X N βN F X N ε N
R 8%
R 8% 2.30 5% 1.50 (3%) 0.50 (10%) 1% R 12%
12-12
12.3 Portfolios and Factor Models
Now let us consider what happens to portfolios of stocks when each of the stocks follows a one-factor model. We will create portfolios from a list of N stocks and will capture the systematic risk with a 1-factor model. The ith stock in the list has return:
R R 2.30 5% 1.50 (3%) 0.50 FS 1%
12-10
Systematic Risk and Betas: Example
R R 2.30 5% 1.50 (3%) 0.50 FS 1%
If it were the case that the dollar-euro spot exchange rate, S($,€), was expected to increase by 10%, but in fact remained stable during the time period, then: FS = Surprise in the exchange rate = actual – expected = 0% – 10% = – 10%
《公司理财》斯蒂芬A.罗斯..,机械工业出版社 英文课件
Strong Form
– Security prices reflect all information—public and private.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Weak Form
– Security prices reflect all information found in past prices and volume.
Semi-Strong Form
– Security prices reflect all publicly available information.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-2
13.1 Can Financing Decisions Create Value?
Earlier parts of the book show how to evaluate investment projects according the NPV criterion. The next five chapters concern financing decisions.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin
Copyright 2004 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
13-10
Why Technical Analysis Fails
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Does Dividend Policy Matter?
• Dividends matter – the value of the stock is based on the present value of expected future dividends • Dividend policy may not matter
17-10
Dividends and Signals
• Asymmetric information – managers have more information about the health of the company than investors • Changes in dividends convey information
17-8
Low Payout Please
• Why might a low payout be desirable?
– Individuals in upper income tax brackets might prefer lower dividend payouts, given the immediate tax liability, in favor of higher capital gains with the deferred tax liability – Flotation costs – low payouts can decrease the amount of capital that needs to be raised, thereby lowering flotation costs – Dividend restrictions – debt contracts might limit the percentage of income that can be paid out as dividends
17-9
High Payout Please
• Why might a high payout be desirable?
– Desire for current income
• Individuals that need current income, i.e., retirees • Groups that are prohibited from spending principal (trusts and endowments)
17-2
Chapter Outline
• Cash Dividends and Dividend Payment • Does Dividend Policy Matter? • Real-World Factors Favoring a Low Dividend Payout • Real-World Factors Favoring a High Dividend Payout • A Resolution of Real-World Factors • Stock Repurchase: An Alternative to Cash Dividends • What We Know and Do Not Know about Dividends and Payout Policies • Stock Dividends and Stock Splits
17-7
Illustration of Irrelevance
• Consider a firm that can either pay out dividends of $10,000 per year for each of the next two years or can pay $9,000 this year, reinvest the other $1,000 into the firm and then pay $11,120 next year. Investors require a 12% return.
17-13
Stock Repurchase
• Company buys back its own shares of stock
– Tender offer – company states a purchase price and a desired number of shares – Open market – buys stock in the open market
17-3
Cash Dividends
• Regular cash dividend – cash payments made directly to stockholders, usually each quarter • Extra cash dividend – indication that the “extra” amount may not be repeated in the future • Special cash dividend – similar to extra dividend, but definitely will not be repeated • Liquidating dividend – some or all of the business has been sold
– Uncertainty resolution – no guarantee that the higher future dividends will materialize – Taxes
• Dividend exclusion for corporations • Tax-exempt investors don‟t have to worry about differential treatment between dividends and capital gains
– Dividend increases
• Management believes it can be sustained • Expectation of higher future dividends, increasing present value • Signal of a healthy, growing firm
17-14
Real-World Considerations
• Stock repurchase allows investors to decide if they want the current cash flow and associated tax consequences • Given our tax structure, repurchases may be more desirable due to the options provided stockholders • The IRS recognizes this and will not allow a stock repurchase for the sole purpose of allowing investors to avoid taxes
Chapter 17 Dividends and Dividend Poli010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights
Key Concepts and Skills
• Understand dividend types and how they are paid • Understand the issues surrounding dividend policy decisions • Understand the difference between cash and stock dividends • Understand why share repurchases are an alternative to dividends
17-4
Dividend Payment
• Declaration Date – Board declares the dividend, and it becomes a liability of the firm • Ex-dividend Date
– Occurs two business days before date of record – If you buy stock on or after this date, you will not receive the dividend – Stock price generally drops by about the amount of the dividend
• Date of Record – Holders of record are determined, and they will receive the dividend payment • Date of Payment – checks are mailed
17-5
Figure 17.2
17-6
17-12
Implications of the Clientele Effect
• What do you think will happen if a firm changes its policy from a high payout to a low payout? • What do you think will happen if a firm changes its policy from a low payout to a high payout? • If this is the case, does dividend policy matter?
– Dividend decreases
• Management believes it can no longer sustain the current level of dividends • Expectation of lower dividends indefinitely; decreasing present value • Signal of a firm that is having financial difficulties