财务风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
财务风险管理外文文献翻译
文献出处: Sharifi, Omid. International Journal of Information, Business and Management6.2 (May 2014): 82-94.原文Financial Risk Management for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises(SMES)Omid SharifiMBA, Department of Commerce and Business Management,Kakatiya University, House No. 2-1-664, Sarawathi negar,1.ABSTRACTmedium sized Enterprises (SME) do also face business risks, Similar to large companies, Small and Mwhich in worst case can cause financial distress and lead to bankruptcy. However, although SME are a major part of the India and also international - economy, research mainly focused on risk management in large corporations. Therefore the aim of this paper is to suggest a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. The data required for the study was collected from Annual report of the Intec Capital Limited. For the period of five years, from 2008 to 2012.the findings showed the data and the overview can be used in SME risk management.Keywords: Annual report, Small and Medium sized Enterprises, Financial Risks, Risk Management.2.INTRUDUCTIONSmall and medium sized enterprises (SME) differ from large corporations among other aspects first of all in their size. Their importance in the economy however is large . SME sector of India is considered as the backbone of economy contributing to 45% of the industrial output, 40% of India’s exports, employing 60 million people,create 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8000 quality products for the Indian and international markets. With approximately 30 million SMEs in India, 12 million people expected to join the workforce in next 3 years and the sector growing at a rate of 8% per year, Government of India is taking different measures so as to increase their competitiveness in the international market. There are several factors that have contributed towards the growth of Indian SMEs.Few of these include; funding of SMEs by local and foreign investors, the new technology that is used in the market is assisting SMEs add considerable value to their business, various trade directories and trade portals help facilitate trade between buyer and supplier and thus reducing the barrier to trade With this huge potential, backed up by strong government support; Indian SMEs continue to post their growth stories. Despite of this strong growth, there is huge potential amongst Indian SMEs that still remains untapped. Once this untapped potential becomes the source for growth of these units, there would be no stopping to India posting a GDP higher than that of US and China and becoming the world’s economic powerhouse.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONRisk and economic activity are inseparable. Every business decision and entrepreneurial act is connected with risk. This applies also to business of small andmedium sized enterprises as they are also facing several and often the same risks as bigger companies. In a real business environment with market imperfections they need to manage those risks in order to secure their business continuity and add additional value by avoiding or reducing transaction costs and cost of financial distress or bankruptcy. However, risk management is a challenge for most SME. In contrast to larger companies they often lack the necessary resources, with regard to manpower, databases and specialty of knowledge to perform a standardized and structured risk management. The result is that many smaller companies do not perform sufficient analysis to identify their risk. This aspect is exacerbated due to a lack in literature about methods for risk management in SME, as stated by Henschel: The two challenging aspects with regard to risk management in SME are therefore:1. SME differ from large corporations in many characteristics2. The existing research lacks a focus on risk management in SMEThe following research question will be central to this work:1.how can SME manage their internal financial risk?2.Which aspects, based on their characteristics, have to be taken into account for this?3.Which mean fulfils the requirements and can be applied to SME?4. LITERATURE REVIEWIn contrast to larger corporations, in SME one of the owners is often part of the management team. His intuition and experience are important for managing the company.Therefore, in small companies, the (owner-) manager is often responsible for many different tasks and important decisions. Most SME do not have the necessary resources to employ specialists on every position in the company. They focus on their core business and have generalists for the administrative functions. Behr and Guttler find that SME on average have equity ratios lower than 20%. The different characteristics of management, position on procurement and capital markets and the legal framework need to be taken into account when applying management instruments like risk management. Therefore the risk management techniques of larger corporations cannot easily be applied to SME.In practice it can therefore be observed that although SME are not facing less risks and uncertainties than largecompanies, their risk management differs from the practices in larger companies. The latter have the resources to employ a risk manager and a professional, structured and standardized risk management system. In contrast to that, risk management in SME differs in the degree of implementation and the techniques applied. Jonen & Simgen-Weber With regard to firm size and the use of risk management. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius observe in a study from 2010 that increasing firm size among SME enhances the use of risk management. This observation matches with the opinion of nearly 10% of SME, which are of the opinion, that risk management is only reasonable in larger corporations. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius find that most of the surveyed SME identify risks with help of statistics, checklists, creativity and scenario analyses. reveals similar findings and state that most companies rely on key figure systems for identifying and evaluating the urgency of business risks. That small firms face higher costs of hedging than larger corporations. This fact is reducing the benefits from hedging and therefore he advises to evaluate the usage of hedging for each firm individually. The lacking expertise to decide about hedges in SME is also identified by Eckbo, According to his findings, smaller companies often lack the understanding and management capacities needed to use those instruments.5. METHODOLOGY5.1. USE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN SME RISK MANAGEMENTHow financial analysis can be used in SME risk management?5.1.1 Development of financial risk overview for SMEThe following sections show the development of the financial risk overview. After presenting the framework, the different ratios will be discussed to finally presenta selection of suitable ratios and choose appropriate comparison data.5.1.2. Framework for financial risk overviewThe idea is to use a set of ratios in an overview as the basis for the financial risk management.This provides even more information than the analysis of historical data and allows reacting fast on critical developments and managing the identified risks. However not only the internal data can be used for the risk management. In additionto that also the information available in the papers can be used.Some of them state average values for the defaulted or bankrupt companies one year prior bankruptcy -and few papers also for a longer time horizon. Those values can be used as a comparison value to evaluate the risk situation of the company. For this an appropriate set of ratios has to be chosen.The ratios, which will be included in the overview and analysis sheet, should fulfill two main requirements. First of all they should match the main financial risks of the company in order to deliver significant information and not miss an important risk factor. Secondly the ratios need to be relevant in two different ways. On the one hand they should be applicable independently of other ratios. This means that they also deliver useful information when not used in a regression, as it is applied in many of the papers. On the other hand to be appropriate to use them, the ratios need to show a different development for healthy companies than for those under financial distress. The difference between the values of the two groups should be large enough to see into which the observed company belongs.5.1.3. Evaluation of ratios for financial risk overviewWhen choosing ratios from the different categories, it needs to be evaluated which ones are the most appropriate ones. For this some comparison values are needed in order to see whether the ratios show different values and developments for the two groups of companies. The most convenient source for the comparison values are the research papers as their values are based on large samples of annual reports and by providing average values outweigh outliers in the data. Altman shows a table with the values for 8 different ratios for the five years prior bankruptcy of which he uses 5, while Porporato & Sandin use 13 ratios in their model and Ohlson bases his evaluation on 9 figures and ratios [10]. Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic also show the difference in ratios between the two groups, however only directly before bankruptcy and not as a development over time [9]. Therefore this information is not as valuable as the others ([4][15]).In summary, the main internal financial risks in a SME should be covered by financial structure, liquidity and profitability ratios, which are the main categories ofratios applied in the research papers.Financial structureA ratio used in many of the papers is the total debt to total assets ratio, analyzing the financial structure of the company. Next to the papers of Altman, Ohlson and Porporato & Sandin also Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic show comparison values for this ratio. Those demonstrate a huge difference in size between the bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups.Figure 1: Development of total debt/ total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968), Porporato & Sandin (2007) and Ohlson (1980), author’s illustrationTherefore the information of total debt/total assets is more reliable and should rather be used for the overview. The other ratios analyzing the financial structure are only used in one of the papers and except for one the reference data only covers the last year before bankruptcy. Therefore a time trend cannot be detected and their relevance cannot be approved.Cost of debtThe costs of debt are another aspect of the financing risk. Porporato & Sandin use the variable interest payments/EBIT for measuring the debt costs. The variable shows how much of the income before tax and interest is spend to finance the debt. This variable also shows a clear trend when firms approach bankruptcy.LiquidityThe ratio used in all five papers to measure liquidity is the current ratio, showingthe relation between current liabilities and current assets (with slight differences in the definition). Instead of the current ratio, a liquidity ratio setting the difference between current assets and current liabilities, also defined as working capital, into relation with total assets could be used.Figure 2: Development of working capital / total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980); author’s illustratioBasically the ratio says whether the firm would be able to pay back all its’ current liabilities by using its’ current assets. In case it is not able to, which is wh en the liabilities exceed the assets, there is an insolvency risk.6. CRITICAL REVIEW AND CONCLUSIONWhen doing business, constantly decisions have to be made, whose outcome is not certain and thus connected with risk. In order to successfully cope with this uncertainty, corporate risk management is necessary in a business environment, which is influenced by market frictions. Different approaches and methods can be found for applying such a risk management. However, those mainly focus on large corporations, though they are the minority of all companies[13].Furthermore the approaches often require the use of statistical software and expert knowledge, which is most often not available in SME. They and their requirements for risk management have mainly been neglected [17][13].This also includes the internal financial risk management, which was in the focus of this paper. Due to the existing risks in SME and their differences to larger corporations as well as the lack of suitable risk management suggestions in theory, there is a need for a suggestion for a financial risk management in SME. Theaim was to find a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. Based on an examination and analysis of different papers, despite of their different models, many similarities in the applied ratios could be identified. In general the papers focus on three categories of risk, namely liquidity, profitability and solvency, which are in accordance to the main internal financial risks of SME. From the ratios the most appropriate ones with regard to their effectiveness in identifying risks.译文中小企业的财务风险管理奥米德沙利菲1、摘要中小型企业(SME)和大型企业一样,也面临着业务风险,在最糟糕的情况下,可能会导致金融危机,甚至破产。
财务管理财务分析中英文对照外文翻译文献
覆盖大量的可供选择的债券工具。由于债券市场的改革,出现了由企业发行的可供选择形式的债券工具。在第15章中,向你介绍了三种工具。我们然后致力于第一章提出的由企业负债发行的最具流动性的可供选择企业债券,企业首次发行的资产有价证券。
(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)
附录A
财务管理和财务分析作为财务学科中应用工具。本书的写作目的在于交流基本的财务管理和财务分析。本书用于那些有能力的财务初学者了解财务决策和企业如何做出财务决策。
通过对本书的学习,你将了解我们是如何理解财务的。我们所说的财务决策作为公司所做决策的一部分,不是一个被分离出来的功能。财务决策的做出协调了企业会计部、市场部和生产部。
1财务管理与分析的介绍
财务是经济学原理的应用的概念,用于商业决策和问题的解决。财务被认为有三部分组成:财务管理,投资,和金融机构:
■财务管理有时被称为公司理财或者企业理财。财务的范围就企业单位的财务决策的重要性划分的。财务管理决策包括保持现金流平衡,延长信用,获得其他公司借款,银行的借款和发行股票和基金。
覆盖项目租赁和项目资金融资。我们提供深度的项目租赁的内容在本书的第27章,阐明项目租赁的利弊,你在本书中会频繁的看到和专业的项目资金融资。项目融资的增长十分重要不仅对企业而言,对为了追求发展基础设施的国家也十分的重要。在第28章,本书提供了便于理解项目融资的基本原理。
早期介绍衍生工具。衍生工具(期货、交换物、期权)在理财中发挥着重要作用。在第4章向你介绍这些工具。而衍生工具被看作是复杂的工具,通过介绍将让你明确它们的基础投资工具特征。在早期介绍的衍生工具时,你可以接受那些评估隐含期权带来的困难(第9章)那些在资本预算中隐含的期权(第14章),以及如何运用隐含期权来减少成本及负债(第15章)。
银行财务风险的外文文献
银行财务风险的外文文献银行财务风险的外文文献:1. Bank Financial Risk Management: A Practical Guide to Managing and Mitigating Financial Risks本书是由银行财务风险管理专家写的一本实践指南,介绍了银行在管理和缓解金融风险方面的具体策略和方法。
包括了市场风险、信用风险、利率风险、流动性风险等方面的内容。
2. Managing Financial Risks: From Global to Local该书是一本汇集了全球各地知名专家的讲座,内容涵盖了银行金融风险的最新研究成果。
从宏观经济风险到信用风险等方面,对银行金融风险管理提供了全面的视角和思路。
3. Financial Risk Manager Handbook该书是由全球金融风险管理协会GARP撰写的指南手册,涵盖了金融风险管理的理论、实践和案例研究。
介绍了金融风险的识别、量化、监控和管理等重要方面。
4. Risk Management and Financial Institutions该书是一本行业标准教材,由两位金融风险管理领域的权威合著,涉及了金融风险定义、评估和管理的关键内容。
书中还包括了现代金融和银行业的最新发展和趋势等方面的内容。
5. Financial Risk: Theory, Evidence and Implications该书是一本由多位学者合著的金融风险研究专著,旨在为银行业和投资机构等金融市场从业者提供有关金融风险识别和管理的理论和实践指南。
通俗易懂的语言介绍了金融市场的基本原则,包括风险、收益、投资组合构建和风险管理等重要方面。
外文文献及中文翻译_财务风险的重要性How Important is Financial Risk_
How Important is Financial Risk?IntroductionThe financial crisis of 2008 has brought significant attention to the effects of financial leverage. There is no doubt that the high levels of debt financing by financial institutions and households significantly contributed to the crisis. Indeed, evidence indicates that excessive leverage orchestrated by major global banks (e.g., through the mortgage lending and collateralized debt obligations) and the so-called “shadow banking system” may be the underlying cau se of the recent economic and financial dislocation. Less obvious is the role of financial leverage among nonfinancial firms. To date, problems in the U.S. non-financial sector have been minor compared to the distress in the financial sector despite the seizing of capital markets during the crisis. For example, non-financial bankruptcies have been limited given that the economic decline is the largest since the great depression of the 1930s. In fact, bankruptcy filings of non-financial firms have occurred mostly in U.S. industries (e.g., automotive manufacturing, newspapers, and real estate) that faced fundamental economic pressures prior to the financial crisis. This surprising fact begs the question, “How important is financial risk for non-financial firms?” At the heart of this issue is the uncertainty about the determinants of total firm risk as well as components of firm risk.StudyRecent academic research in both asset pricing and corporate finance has rekindled an interest in analyzing equity price risk. A current strand of the asset pricing literature examines the finding of Campbell et al. (2001) that firm-specific (idiosyncratic) risk has tended to increase over the last 40 years. Other work suggests that idiosyncratic risk may be a priced risk factor (see Goyal and Santa-Clara, 2003, among others). Also related to these studies is work by Pástor and Veronesi (2003) showing how investor uncertainty about firm profitability is an important determinant of idiosyncratic risk and firm value. Other research has examined the role of equity volatility in bond pricing (e.g., Dichev, 1998, Campbell, Hilscher, and Szilagyi, 2008).However, much of the empirical work examining equity price risk takes the risk of assets as given or tries to explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk. In contrast, thispaper takes a different tack in the investigation of equity price risk. First, we seek to understand the determinants of equity price risk at the firm level by considering total risk as the product of risks inherent in the firms operations (i.e., economic or business risks) and risks associated with financing the firms operations (i.e., financial risks). Second, we attempt to assess the relative importance of economic and financial risks and the implications for financial policy.Early research by Modigliani and Miller (1958) suggests that financial policy may be largely irrelevant for firm value because investors can replicate many financial decisions by the firm at a low cost (i.e., via homemade leverage) and well-functioning capital markets should be able to distinguish between financial and economic distress. Nonetheless, financial policies, such as adding debt to the capital structure, can magnify the risk of equity. In contrast, recent research on corporate risk management suggests that firms may also be able to reduce risks and increase value with financial policies such as hedging with financial derivatives. However, this research is often motivated by substantial deadweight costs associated with financial distress or other market imperfections associated with financial leverage. Empirical research provides conflicting accounts of how costly financial distress can be for a typical publicly traded firm.We attempt to directly address the roles of economic and financial risk by examining determinants of total firm risk. In our analysis we utilize a large sample of non-financial firms in the United States. Our goal of identifying the most important determinants of equity price risk (volatility) relies on viewing financial policy as transforming asset volatility into equity volatility via financial leverage. Thus, throughout the paper, we consider financial leverage as the wedge between asset volatility and equity volatility. For example, in a static setting, debt provides financial leverage that magnifies operating cash flow volatility. Because financial policy is determined by owners (and managers), we are careful to examine the effects of firms’ asset and operating characteristics on financial policy. Specifically, we examine a variety of characteristics suggested by previous research and, as clearly as possible, distinguish between those associated with the operations of the company (i.e. factors determining economic risk) and those associated with financing the firm (i.e. factors determining financial risk). We then allow economic risk to be a determinant of financial policy in the structural framework of Leland and Toft (1996), or alternatively,in a reduced form model of financial leverage. An advantage of the structural model approach is that we are able to account for both the possibility of financial and operating implications of some factors (e.g., dividends), as well as the endogenous nature of the bankruptcy decision and financial policy in general.Our proxy for firm risk is the volatility of common stock returns derived from calculating the standard deviation of daily equity returns. Our proxies for economic risk are designed to capture the essential characteristics of the firms’ operations and assets that determine the cash flow generating process for the firm. For example, firm size and age provide measures of line of- business maturity; tangible assets (plant, property, and equipment) serve as a proxy for the ‘hardness’ of a firm’s assets; capital expenditures measure capital intensity as well as growth potential. Operating profitability and operating profit volatility serve as measures of the timeliness and riskiness of cash flows. To understand how financial factors affect firm risk, we examine total debt, debt maturity, dividend payouts, and holdings of cash and short-term investments.The primary result of our analysis is surprising: factors determining economic risk for a typical company explain the vast majority of the variation in equity volatility. Correspondingly, measures of implied financial leverage are much lower than observed debt ratios. Specifically, in our sample covering 1964-2008 average actual net financial (market) leverage is about 1.50 compared to our estimates of between 1.03 and 1.11 (depending on model specification and estimation technique). This suggests that firms may undertake other financial policies to manage financial risk and thus lower effective leverage to nearly negligible levels. These policies might include dynamically adjusting financial variables such as debt levels, debt maturity, or cash holdings (see, for example, Acharya, Almeida, and Campello, 2007). In addition, many firms also utilize explicit financial risk management techniques such as the use of financial derivatives, contractual arrangements with investors (e.g. lines of credit, call provisions in debt contracts, or contingencies in supplier contracts), special purpose vehicles (SPVs), or other alternative risk transfer techniques.The effects of our economic risk factors on equity volatility are generally highly statistically significant, with predicted signs. In addition, the magnitudes of the effects are substantial. We find that volatility of equity decreases with the size and age of the firm. This is intuitive since large and mature firms typically have more stable lines ofbusiness, which should be reflected in the volatility of equity returns. Equity volatility tends to decrease with capital expenditures though the effect is weak. Consistent with the predictions of Pástor and Veronesi (2003), we find that firms with higher profitability and lower profit volatility have lower equity volatility. This suggests that companies with higher and more stable operating cash flows are less likely to go bankrupt, and therefore are potentially less risky. Among economic risk variables, the effects of firm size, profit volatility, and dividend policy on equity volatility stand out. Unlike some previous studies, our careful treatment of the endogeneity of financial policy confirms that leverage increases total firm risk. Otherwise, financial risk factors are not reliably related to total risk.Given the large literature on financial policy, it is no surprise that financial variables are,at least in part, determined by the economic risks firms take. However, some of the specific findings are unexpected. For example, in a simple model of capital structure, dividend payouts should increase financial leverage since they represent an outflow of cash from the firm (i.e., increase net debt). We find that dividends are associated with lower risk. This suggests that paying dividends is not as much a product of financial policy as a characteristic of a firm’s operations(e.g., a mature company with limited growth opportunities). We also estimate how sensitivities to different risk factors have changed over time. Our results indicate that most relations are fairly stable. One exception is firm age which prior to 1983 tends to be positively related to risk and has since been consistently negatively related to risk. This is related to findings by Brown and Kapadia (2007) that recent trends in idiosyncratic risk are related to stock listings by younger and riskier firms.Perhaps the most interesting result from our analysis is that our measures of implied financial leverage have declined over the last 30 years at the same time that measures of equity price risk (such as idiosyncratic risk) appear to have been increasing. In fact, measures of implied financial leverage from our structural model settle near 1.0 (i.e., no leverage) by the end of our sample. There are several possible reasons for this. First, total debt ratios for non-financial firms have declined steadily over the last 30 years, so our measure of implied leverage should also decline. Second, firms have significantly increased cash holdings, so measures of net debt (debt minus cash and short-term investments) have also declined. Third, the composition of publicly traded firms has changed with more risky (especially technology-oriented)firms becoming publicly listed. These firms tend to have less debt in their capital structure. Fourth, as mentioned above, firms can undertake a variety of financial risk management activities. To the extent that these activities have increased over the last few decades, firms will have become less exposed to financial risk factors.We conduct some additional tests to provide a reality check of our results. First, we repeat our analysis with a reduced form model that imposes minimum structural rigidity on our estimation and find very similar results. This indicates that our results are unlikely to be driven by model misspecification. We also compare our results with trends in aggregate debt levels for all U.S. non-financial firms and find evidence consistent with our conclusions. Finally, we look at characteristics of publicly traded non-financial firms that file for bankruptcy around the last three recessions and find evidence suggesting that these firms are increasingly being affected by economic distress as opposed to financial distress.ConclusionIn short, our results suggest that, as a practical matter, residual financial risk is now relatively unimportant for the typical U.S. firm. This raises questions about the level of expected financial distress costs since the probability of financial distress is likely to be lower than commonly thought for most companies. For example, our results suggest that estimates of the level of systematic risk in bond pricing may be biased if they do not take into account the trend in implied financial leverage (e.g., Dichev, 1998). Our results also bring into question the appropriateness of financial models used to estimate default probabilities, since financial policies that may be difficult to observe appear to significantly reduce risk. Lastly, our results imply that the fundamental risks born by shareholders are primarily related to underlying economic risks which should lead to a relatively efficient allocation of capital.Some readers may be tempted to interpret our results as indicating that financial risk does not matter. This is not the proper interpretation. Instead, our results suggest that firms are able to manage financial risk so that the resulting exposure to shareholders is low compared to economic risks. Of course, financial risk is important to firms that choose to take on such risks either through high debt levels or a lack of risk management. In contrast, our study suggests that the typical non-financial firm chooses not to take these risks. In short, gross financial risk may be important, but firms can manage it. This contrasts with fundamental economic and business risks thatare more difficult (or undesirable) to hedge because they represent the mechanism by which the firm earns economic profits.References[1]Shyam,Sunder.Theory Accounting and Control[J].An Innternational Theory on PublishingComPany.2005[2]Ogryezak,W,Ruszeznski,A. Rom Stomchastic Dominance to Mean-Risk Models:Semide-Viations as Risk Measures[J].European Journal of Operational Research.[3] Borowski, D.M., and P.J. Elmer. An Expert System Approach to Financial Analysis: the Case of S&L Bankruptcy [J].Financial Management, Autumn.2004;[4] Casey, C.and N. Bartczak. Using Operating Cash Flow Data to Predict Financial Distress: Some Extensions[J]. Journal of Accounting Research,Spring.2005;[5] John M.Mulvey,HafizeGErkan.Applying CVaR for decentralized risk management of financialcompanies[J].Journal of Banking&Finanee.2006;[6] Altman. Credit Rating:Methodologies,Rationale and Default Risk[M].Risk Books,London.译文:财务风险的重要性引言2008年的金融危机对金融杠杆的作用产生重大影响。
中小企业的财务风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文3000字
中小企业的财务风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文3000字Financial Risk Management for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)Financial risk management is an essential aspect of business management。
particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)。
SMEs face numerous financial risks。
including credit risk。
market risk。
liquidity risk。
and nal risk。
which can significantly impact their financial stability and growth prospects。
Therefore。
the effective management of financial risks is crucialfor SMEs to survive and thrive in today's competitive business environment.One of the primary challenges for SMEs in managing financial risks is their limited resources and expertise。
Unlike large ns。
SMEs often lack the financial resources and specialized staff to develop and implement comprehensive risk management strategies。
As a result。
公司财务风险中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文资料外文翻译外文资料Financial firm bankruptcy and systemic riskIn Fall 2008 when the Federal Reserve and the Treasury injected $85 billion into the insurance behemoth American International Group (AIG), themoney lent to AIGwent straight to counterparties, and very few funds remained with the insurer. Among the largest recipients was Goldman Sachs, to whomabout $12 billionwas paid to undoAIG’s credit default swaps (CDSs). The bailout plan focused on repaying the debt by slowly selling off AIG’s assets, w ith no intention of maintaining jobs or allowing the CDSmarket to continue to function as before. Thus, the government’s effort to avoid systemic risk with AIG was mainly about ensuring that firms with which AIG had done business did not fail as a result. T he concerns are obviously greatest vis-a-vis CDSs, ofwhich AIG had over $400 billion contracts outstanding in June 2008.In contrast, the government was much less enthusiastic about aiding General Motors, presumably because they believed its failure would not cause major macroeconomic repercussions by imposing losses on related firms. This decision is consistent with the view in macroeconomicresearch that financialfirmbankruptcies pose a greater amount of systemic risk than nonfinancial firmbankruptcies. For example, Bordo and Haubrich (2009) conclude that “...more severe financial events are associated withmore severe recessions...” Likewise, Bernanke (1983) argues the Great Depressionwas so severe because ofweakness in the banking systemthat affected the amount of credit available for investment. Bernanke et al. (1999) hypothesize a financial accelerator mechanism, whereby distress in one sector of the economy leads to more precarious balance sheets and tighter credit conditions. This in turn leads to a drop in investment, which is followed by less lending and a widespread downturn. Were shocks to the economy always to come in the form of distress at nonfinancial firms, these authors argue that the business downturns would not be so severe.We argue instead that the contagious impact of a nonfinancial firm’s bankruptcy is expected to be far larger than that of a financial firm like AIG, although neither would be catastrophic to the U.S. economy through counterparty risk channels. This is not to say that an episode ofwidespread financial distress among our largest banks would not be followed by an especially severe recession, only that such failures would not cause a recession or affect the depth of a recession. Rather such bankruptcies are symptomatic of common factors in portfolios that lead to wealth losses regardless of whether any firm files for bankruptcy.Pervasive financial fragility may occur because the failure of one firm leads to the failure of other firms which cascades through the system (e.g., Davis and Lo, 1999; Jarrow and Yu, 2001). Or systemic risk may wreak havoc when a number of financial firms fail simultaneously, as in the Great Depression when more than 9000 banks failed (Benston, 1986). In the former case, the failure of one firm, such as AIG, Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns, could lead to widespread failure through financial contracts such as CDSs. In the latter case, the fact that so many financial institutions have failed means that both the money supply and the amount of credit in the economy could fall so far as to cause a large drop in economic activity (Friedman and Schwartz, 1971).While a weak financial systemcould cause a recession, the recession would not arise because one firm was allowed to file bankruptcy. Further, should one or the other firmgo bankrupt, the nonfinancial firmwould have the greater impact on the economy.Such extreme real effects that appear to be the result of financial firm fragility have led to a large emphasis on the prevention of systemic risk problems by regulators. Foremost amo ng these policies is “too big to fail” (TBTF), the logic of which is that the failure of a large financial institution will have ramifications for other financial institutions and therefore the risk to the economywould be enormous. TBTF was behind the Fed’s decisions to orchestrate the merger of Bear Stearns and J.P.Morgan Chase in 2008, its leadership in the restructuring of bank loans owed by Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), and its decision to prop up AIG. TBTF may be justified if the outcome is preven tion of a major downswing in the economy. However, if the systemic risks in these episodes have been exaggerated or the salutary effects of these actions overestimated, then the cost to the efficiency of the capital allocation system may far outweigh any po tential benefits from attempting to avoid another Great Depression.No doubt, no regulator wants to take the chance of standing down while watching over another systemic risk crisis, sowe do not have the ability to examine empiricallywhat happens to the economy when regulators back off. There are very fewinstances in themodern history of the U.S.where regulators allowed the bankruptcy of amajor financial firm.Most recently,we can point to the bankruptcy of Lehman,which the Fed pointedly allowed to fail.However,with only one obvious casewhere TBTFwas abandoned, we have only an inkling of how TBTF policy affects systemic risk. Moreover, at the same time that Lehman failed, the Fed was intervening in the commercial paper market and aiding money marketmutual fundswhile AIGwas downgraded and subsequently bailed out. In addition, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury were scaremongering about the prospects of a second Great Depression to make the passage of TARPmore likely. Thuswewill never knowifthemarket downturn th at followed the Lehman bankruptcy reflected fear of contagion from Lehman to the real economy or fear of the depths of existing problems in the real economy that were highlighted so dramatically by regulators.In this paper we analyze the mechanisms by which such risk could cause an economy-wide col-lapse.We focus on two types of contagion that might lead to systemic risk problems: (1) information contagion,where the information that one financial firmis troubled is associatedwith negative shocksat other financ ial institutions largely because the firms share common risk factors; or (2) counterparty contagion,where one important financial institution’s collapse leads directly to troubles at other cred-itor firms whose troubles snowball and drive other firms into distress. The efficacy of TBTF policies depends crucially on which of these two types of systemic riskmechanisms dominates.Counterparty contagion may warrant intervention in individual bank failureswhile information contagion does not.If regulators do not ste p in to bail out an individual firm, the alternative is to let it fail. In the case of a bank, the process involves the FDIC as receiver and the insured liabilities of the firmare very quickly repaid. In contrast, the failure of an investment bank or hedge fund does not involve the FDIC andmay closely resemble a Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 filing of a nonfinancial firm. However, if the nonbank financial firm inquestion has liabilities that are covered by the Securities Industry Protection Corporation (SIPC), the firmi s required by lawunder the Securities Industry Protection Act (SIPA) to liquidate under Chapter 7 (Don and Wang, 1990). This explains in large partwhy only the holding company of Lehman filed for bankruptcy in 2008 and its broker–dealer subsidiaries were n ot part of the Chapter 11 filing.A major fear of a financial firm liquidation, whether done through the FDIC or as required by SIPA, is that fire sales will depress recoveries for the creditors of the failed financial firm and that these fire saleswill have ramifications for other firms in related businesses, even if these businesses do not have direct ties to the failed firm (Shleifer and Vishny, 1992). This fear was behind the Fed’s decision to extend liquidity to primary dealers inMarch 2008 – Fed Chairman Bernanke explained in a speech on financial system stability that“the risk developed that liquidity pressuresmight force dealers to sell assets into already illiquid markets. Thismight have resulted in...[a] fire sale scenario..., inwhich a cascade of failures andliquidations sharply depresses asset prices, with adverse financial and economic implications.”(May 13, 2008 speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conference at Sea Island, Georgia) The fear of potential fire sales is expressed in further detail in t he same speech as a reason for the merger of Bear Stearns and JP Morgan:“Bear...would be forced to file for bankruptcy...[which] wouldhave forced Bear’s secured creditors and counterparties to liquidate the underlying collateral and, given the illiquidity of markets, those creditors and counter parties might well have sustained losses. If they responded to losses or the unexpected illiquidity of their holdings by pulling back from providing secured financing to other firms, a much broader liquidity crisis wou ld have ensued.”The idea that creditors of a failed firm are forced to liquidate assets, and to do so with haste, is counter to the basic tenets of U.S. bankruptcy laws, which are set up to allow creditors the ability to maximize the value of the assets now under their control. If that value is greatest when continuing to operate, the laws allow such a reorganization of the firm. If the value in liquidation is higher, the laws are in no way prejudiced against selling assets in an orderly procedure. Bankruptcy actually reduces the likelihood of fire sales because assets are not sold quickly once a bankruptcy filing occurs. Cash does not leave the bankrupt firm without the approval of a judge.Without pressure to pay debts, the firm can remain in bankruptcy for months as it tries to decide on the best course of action. Indeed, a major complaint about the U.S. code is that debtors can easily delay reorganizing and slow down the process.If, however, creditors and management believe that speedy assets sales are in their best interest, then they can press the bankruptcy judge to approve quick action. This occurred in the case of Lehman’s asset sale to Barclays,which involved hiring workers whomight have split up were their divisions not sold quickly.金融公司破产及系统性的风险2008年秋,当美联邦储备委员会和财政部拒绝85亿美金巨资保险投入到美国国际集团时,这边借给美国国际集团的货款就直接落到了竞争对手手里,而投保人只得到极少的一部分资金。
中小企业的财务风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文3000字
文献出处:Sharifi, Omid. International Journal of Information, Business and Management 6.2 (May 2014): 82-94.2014年,最新文献翻译,译文3000多字原文Financial Risk Management for Small and Medium SizedEnterprises(SMES)Omid SharifiMBA, Department of Commerce and Business Management,Kakatiya University, House No. 2-1-664, Sarawathi negar,Gopalpur, Hanamakonda, A.P., IndiaE-Mail: **********************, Phone: 0091- 8808173339RESEARCH QUESTIONRisk and economic activity are inseparable. Every business decision and entrepreneurial act is connected with risk. This applies also to business of small and medium sized enterprises as they are also facing several and often the same risks as bigger companies. In a real business environment with market imperfections they need to manage those risks in order to secure their business continuity and add additional value by avoiding or reducing transaction costs and cost of financial distress or bankruptcy. However, risk management is a challenge for most SME. In contrast to larger companies they often lack the necessary resources, with regard to manpower, databases and specialty of knowledge to perform a standardized and structured risk management. The result is that many smaller companies do not perform sufficient analysis to identify their risk. This aspect is exacerbated due to a lack in literature about methods for risk management in SME, as stated by Henschel: The two challenging aspects with regard to risk management in SME are therefore:1. SME differ from large corporations in many characteristics2. The existing research lacks a focus on risk management in SMEThe following research question will be central to this work:1.how can SME manage their internal financial risk?2.Which aspects, based on their characteristics, have to be taken into account for this?3.Which mean fulfils the requirements and can be applied to SME? LITERATURE REVIEWIn contrast to larger corporations, in SME one of the owners is often part of the management team. His intuition and experience are important for managing the company.Therefore, in small companies, the (owner-) manager is often responsible for many different tasks and important decisions. Most SME do not have the necessary resources to employ specialists on every position in the company. They focus on their core business and have generalists for the administrative functions. Behr and Guttler find that SME on average have equity ratios lower than 20%. The different characteristics of management, position on procurement and capital markets and the legal framework need to be taken into account when applying management instruments like risk management. Therefore the risk management techniques of larger corporations cannot easily be applied to SME.In practice it can therefore be observed that although SME are not facing less risks and uncertainties than large companies, their risk management differs from the practices in larger companies. The latter have the resources to employ a risk manager and a professional, structured and standardized risk management system. In contrast to that, risk management in SME differs in the degree of implementation and the techniques applied. Jonen & Simgen-Weber With regard to firm size and the use of risk management. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius observe in a study from 2010 that increasing firm size among SME enhances the use of risk management. This observation matches with the opinion of nearly 10% of SME, which are of the opinion, that risk management is only reasonable in larger corporations. Beyer,Hachmeister & Lampenius find that most of the surveyed SME identify risks with help of statistics, checklists, creativity and scenario analyses. reveals similar findings and state that most companies rely on key figure systems for identifying and evaluating the urgency of business risks. That small firms face higher costs of hedging than larger corporations. This fact is reducing the benefits from hedging and therefore he advises to evaluate the usage of hedging for each firm individually. The lacking expertise to decide about hedges in SME is also identified by Eckbo, According to his findings, smaller companies often lack the understanding and management capacities needed to use those instruments.METHODOLOGYUSE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN SME RISK MANAGEMENTHow financial analysis can be used in SME risk management?Development of financial risk overview for SMEThe following sections show the development of the financial risk overview. After presenting the framework, the different ratios will be discussed to finally present a selection of suitable ratios and choose appropriate comparison data. Framework for financial risk overviewThe idea is to use a set of ratios in an overview as the basis for the financial risk management.This provides even more information than the analysis of historical data and allows reacting fast on critical developments and managing the identified risks. However not only the internal data can be used for the risk management. In addition to that also the information available in the papers can be used.Some of them state average values for the defaulted or bankrupt companies one year prior bankruptcy -and few papers also for a longer time horizon. Those values can be used as a comparison value to evaluate the risk situation of the company. For this an appropriate set of ratios has to be chosen.The ratios, which will be included in the overview and analysis sheet, should fulfill two main requirements. First of all they should match the main financial risks of the company in order to deliver significant information and not miss an importantrisk factor. Secondly the ratios need to be relevant in two different ways. On the one hand they should be applicable independently of other ratios. This means that they also deliver useful information when not used in a regression, as it is applied in many of the papers. On the other hand to be appropriate to use them, the ratios need to show a different development for healthy companies than for those under financial distress. The difference between the values of the two groups should be large enough to see into which the observed company belongs.Evaluation of ratios for financial risk overviewWhen choosing ratios from the different categories, it needs to be evaluated which ones are the most appropriate ones. For this some comparison values are needed in order to see whether the ratios show different values and developments for the two groups of companies. The most convenient source for the comparison values are the research papers as their values are based on large samples of annual reports and by providing average values outweigh outliers in the data. Altman shows a table with the values for 8 different ratios for the five years prior bankruptcy of which he uses 5, while Porporato & Sandin use 13 ratios in their model and Ohlson bases his evaluation on 9 figures and ratios [10]. Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic also show the difference in ratios between the two groups, however only directly before bankruptcy and not as a development over time [9]. Therefore this information is not as valuable as the others ([4][15]).In summary, the main internal financial risks in a SME should be covered by financial structure, liquidity and profitability ratios, which are the main categories of ratios applied in the research papers.Financial structureA ratio used in many of the papers is the total debt to total assets ratio, analyzing the financial structure of the company. Next to the papers of Altman, Ohlson and Porporato & Sandin also Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic show comparison values for this ratio. Those demonstrate a huge difference in size between the bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups.Figure 1: Development of total debt/ total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968), Porporato & Sandin (2007) and Ohlson (1980), author’s illustrationTherefore the information of total debt/total assets is more reliable and should rather be used for the overview. The other ratios analyzing the financial structure are only used in one of the papers and except for one the reference data only covers the last year before bankruptcy. Therefore a time trend cannot be detected and their relevance cannot be approved.Cost of debtThe costs of debt are another aspect of the financing risk. Porporato & Sandin use the variable interest payments/EBIT for measuring the debt costs. The variable shows how much of the income before tax and interest is spend to finance the debt. This variable also shows a clear trend when firms approach bankruptcy.LiquidityThe ratio used in all five papers to measure liquidity is the current ratio, showing the relation between current liabilities and current assets (with slight differences in the definition). Instead of the current ratio, a liquidity ratio setting the difference between current assets and current liabilities, also defined as working capital, into relation with total assets could be used.Figure 2: Development of working capital / total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980); author’s illustratioBasically the ratio says whether the firm would be able to pay back all its’ current liabilities by using its’ current assets. In case it is not able to, which is when the liabilities exceed the assets, there is an insolvency risk.ProfitabilityFor measuring the firms’ profitability or productivity a wide range of ratios is used in the different papers. The ratio sales /total assets is used as well by as also Porporato & Sandin (they use total assets / sales, which can easily be transformed to be comparable) and therefore available as a time series.Figure 3: Development of sales / total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968) and Porporato & Sandin (2007), author’s illustratioThe remaining ratios measuring the last period’s profitability are net income / equity, EBIT /debt and net income or EBIT / total assets.The last groups of profitability ratios, which can be found in the literature, are those focusing on retained earnings of the firms. These measures show the cumulated profitability of the firm over time.Retained earnings ratios measure the buffer of funds the company was able to earn over time and which can be used in times of crisis to balance losses.译文中小企业的财务风险管理Omid Sharifi研究问题风险与经济活动是密不可分的。
财务风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文资料翻译Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce riskwithin the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio towhich it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might bepossible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existing exposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in otherfinancial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditions3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加,但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
财务风险管理外文文献翻译译文
Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk,understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent withinternal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and theinteractions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks.Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existingexposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater theuncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in other financial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditions3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economyvulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加,但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
财务风险外文原文
Political and Financial Risks and Their Mitigation Measures in Public Private Partnershipsby LIAO BOJING CHAPTER 4FINANCIAL RISKS AND THEIR MITIGATION MEASURES4.1 Interest Rate RiskIn construction project finance ventures, there is always the risk of fluctuations in interest rates. Credit is always granted with a variable rate, due to the long life of such PPP projects. In addition, unlike exchange rate risk, interest rate risk indiscriminately strikes both domestic and international projects as well as ventures with multi-currency cash flows. Sponsors and their advisors have to decide whether or not to cover against this risk, a decision that is not exactly identical throughout the life of the project (Gatti, 2008). The mitigation measures for interest rate risk mainly include:(1)Adopting an appropriate multicurrency portfolio, e.g., a dual-currency contract, which uses a foreign currency of lower rate interest, and a local currency for repayment of the principal. Various currencies have different interest rates. The private sector and its advisers must make the effects on making an ideal combination of a variety of foreign currency and cooperating with the banks so as to reduce interest rate risk. Dual-currency is to use a lower rate currency for interest accrual, and choose the local currency for repayment of the principal.(2)Balancing the floating rate and fixed-rate debt in the financing structure. When there is a lack of capital supplies in the international finance market, the interest rate will rise. Under this situation, the private sector should choose a fixed rate. When there is a surplus of capital supplies in the international finance market, the interest rate tends to go down. Therefore, a floating rate should be selected. The balanced proportion on the fixed rate and floating rate will reduce the risk and profit lost.(3)Seeking a reasonable interest rate that is guaranteed by the host government. The host government will provide a guaranteed interest rate to the private sector. During the project period,if the interest rate exceeds the required percentage, the private sector will be compensated. For example, for the north-to-south highway project in Malaysia, the project company, PLUS, received a guaranteed interest rate from the Malaysian government: if the growth of the interest rate exceeds 20%, the project company will obtain redressment of the margins from the compensation package.(4)Using interest rate derivatives(e.g., forward rate agreements, interest rate futures, swaps, options ) to insure against future interest rate fluctuations so as to reduce the interest rate risk.Forward Rate Agreements (FRA)With an FRA, the buyer pledges to pay the seller interest accrued on the principal at a pre-agreed rate, starting at a future date, and for certain period of time. The FRA buyer sets the future rate and is covered from interest rate risk. If in fact the future rate is higher than what was agreed on in thecontract, the seller of the forward rate agreement pays the difference between the two rates to the buyer. Conversely, it will be paid by the buyer if the future rate proves to be lower than the pre-set rate.Interest Rate FuturesA future is a forward agreement in which all contractual provisions are standardized. Due to this fact, futures differ from forward contracts in light of their lower risk for counterparties and greater market liquidity. In project finance ventures, interest rate futures can be used to curb the negative effect ofa rise in interest rates on a loan raised by the private sector.Interest Rate SwapIn their simplest form, interest rate swaps are a periodic exchange of fixed rate streams against floating rate streams (usually indexed to LIBOR) for a given time horizon. In an interest rate swap, one of the counterparty agrees to pay either a fixed or floating rate denominated in a particular currency to the other counterparty. In such a way, the financial cost can be well locked.Interest Rate Option (caps/floors/collars)Options are contracts that allow (but do not oblige) the buyer to purchase(call option) or sell (put option) a commodity or a financial asset at a fixed price (strike price) at a future date in exchange for payment of a premium. In project finance deals, interest rate options are used for protecting the private sector’s cash flows from interest rate risk.(5)Using bond financing in which the interest rates fixed to reduce the risk of future interest rate increase. Bonds can have fixed and floating rates of interest. In this regard, bond financing is often used in reducing interest cost and in mitigating the interest rate fluctuation risk. However, bond issuance is a long and expensive process compared to acquiring bank loans.(6)Using the supplier's credit to reduce the amount of debt and get the debt at a lower interest rate Interest rates of supplier's credit is generally lower than that in capital lending market under the same conditions, and interest rate differentials can be gained from the exporting country government subsidy.(7)Acquisition of loans and assistance from international financial institutions (e.g., Asian Development Bank and World Bank) to make the projects secure and less risky. These kinds of banks are multilateral development financial institutions. Their mission is to help developing member countries to reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their citizens. Take Asia Development Bank (ADB) as an example. It aims to promote economic and social development in Asian and Pacific countries through loans and technical assistance. From this perspective, finance projects from these institutions can be secured and are less risky.(8)Predicting the changing trend of future interest rate and making the corresponding financing preparation. Predict the trend of the future interest rate through collecting multi information. For example, ininternational financial markets with a lackof capital supply, the interest rate will gradually increase so that fixing the interest rate is appropriate; whereas whenthere is an excess supply of capital in the markets, the interest rates tend to decline so the floating rates is better.4.2 Inflation RiskIn practice, the biggest problem arising from economic mismanagement is inflation, especially for a foreign firm with assets in a country. With high inflation, the value of the cash flows received from assets will fall as the country’s currency depreciates on the foreign exchange market. The likelihood of this occurring decreases the attractiveness of foreign investment in the country (Kapila1 and Hendrickson 2001). Inflation risk derives from the fact that most contracts between SPVs and their commercial counterparties are based on revision mechanisms for rates or installments based on the behavior ofa given price index. Both industrial and financial costs and revenues are impacted by inflation risk.The mitigation measures for inflation risk mainly include:(1)Increasing the proportion of hardcurrencies in the cash flow. In general, the best way for the private sector to mitigate inflation risk is by maximizing the proportion of cash flows in hard currencies to be channeled through off-shore mechanisms.(2)Indexing the price of the service or productfrom the project to the inflation rate. Prescribe the relevant items in concession agreements and combine the price of the product and service with the price index or inflation rate of the host country. Using the pricing adjustment formula, which consists ofinflation rate factors, as the method for checking the pricing in the future terms, will allow one to adjust pricing when the inflation rate’s movement exceeds a certain range, or accordingly raise the fees, or extend the permitted period in order to guarantee sufficient cash flow to pay off debts and to assure the investment profit.(3)Including a price adjustment clause inthe long term purchase contract. If the Inflation Index adjust the price of products, the Project Company could increase charging standards on their own based on CPI. However,the foundation of the adjustment must be established by strict accounting and be effective after the government’s approval.(4)Drawing up an inflation swap to transfer inflation risk through an exchange of cash flows. To cover against inflation risk, a swap contract is signed between two parties. In an inflation swap, the private sector pays a fixed rate on a notional principal amount, while the other party pays a floating rate linked to an inflation index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The party paying the floating rate pays the inflation adjusted rate multiplied by the notional principal amount. For example, one party may pay a fixed rate of 3% on a two year inflation swap, and in return receives the actual inflation.(5)Investing in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities to insure the purchasing power of the project company in the future and reduce the inflation influence.A treasury security is indexed to inflation in order to protect the private sectors from the negative effects of inflation. TIPS are considered an extremely low-risk investment since they are backed by the U.S. government andsince their par value rises with inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, while their interest rate remains fixed. Interest on TIPS is paid semi-annually.(6)Choosing the favorable form of construction contract (e.g., Fixed-price Contract and Turn-key Contract) to transfer the increased cost due to inflation to contractors.Making a fixed price contract, turn-in-key contract and cost-plus contract with contractors, the risk of costoverruns caused by the increasing price of cement, steel and the labor can be transferred to the contractors.(7) Predicting the changing trend of future inflation and adjusting the price of product or service accordingly. The project company makes an inflation expectation during the period and confirms the price of the productsfor each annual operation, thus the risk can be avoided.(8) Enhancing the management of the receivable accounts to accelerate the recovery of the project funds. The receivable accounts are managed as the important aspect of financial administration, which influences the managementstate of the project company. Effective receivable accounts management brings favorable cash flow which determines the development or decline of the project.(9) Reducing the operating costs of the projectby strengthening the cost management. Cost management is also a significant part of financial management which can maintain and improve healthy financial statement of the project company.4.3 Currency Exchange RiskForeign exchange risk results from the mismatch between the revenue of the currency and payment obligations for taxes, operating expenses, debt service payments and dividend payments and profit repatriation (Wang et al.,2000). This often occurs in international projects where costs and revenues are computed in different currencies. However, a similar situation may arise in domesticprojects when the counterparty wants to bill the SPV in foreign currency (Gatti, 2008). Here is such an example in China. For investment in China's PPP projects, the foreign companies will invariably receive nearly all of their revenues in RMB. A significant portion of this revenue will need to be converted to other currencies, primarily US dollars, and remitted outside of China. The remittances are used to meet foreign currency obligations to equipment suppliers, to repay borrowings from foreign lenders and to make payments to the companies in respect of equity distributions and shareholder loans. The RMB is not freely convertible into USdollars; even if it is convertible,the exchange rate fluctuates all the time in the market or is subject to the approval of the State Administration for Exchange Control (SAEC). Also, there can be no assurance that the Chinese Government will continue to provide approvals.The mitigation measures for currency exchange risk mainly include:(1) Obtaining currency exchange risk sharing clause from host government. In the PPP agreement there usually exists a foreign exchange risk sharing clause, which means that if theexchange rate fluctuates within a range, the loss is borne by the private sector, but once the changes are beyond a certain value,the loss caused by the exchange rate fluctuations are borne by the host governmentor shared in proportion by both sides. Foreign exchange guarantee in PPP is not an international practice. Whether local government makes a guarantee highly depends on the degree of financial liberalization and complete.(2) Selecting appropriate currency to evade the currency exchange risk, e.g. foreign currency invoicing, loan currency invoicing, hard currency invoicing, and dual-currency agreement. A reasonable foreign currency structure would maintain the appropriate proportion between various currencies and optimize the multi-currency portfolio. The private sector may require the user to pay directly in the currency of the project sponsor country (foreign project sponsor) or adjust the fee structure in which a certain percentage of the loans are used for payment so as to reduce foreign exchange risk, or choose the strong currencies which show few exchange rate movements in the a long term such as US dollar and the euro and other strong currencies. Using a dual-currency or multi-currency agreement, namely you can pay by local currency or partially in other foreign currencies.(3) Enlarging financing proportion in local currency. The private sector needs to seek local lenders or structure their debt in local currency to mitigate risks. Because the revenue from projects can be used to repay the capital and interest, there is no foreign exchange problem and avoid exchange rate risk completely.(4) Using Exchange Rate Proviso Clause which can make a proper adjustment of repayment once the exchange rate exceeds the ratio between the repayment currency and hedge currency (e.g. gold proviso clause, hard currency hedge, and basket of currencies). If valuation in the contract is based on the local currency denominated, according to international practice and the "Guide to Contracting industrial projects in developing countries" developed by the United Nations, the clause on hedging should be provided in the contract terms in order to prevent any exchange rate risk. An Exchange Rate Proviso Clause is one measure that can make a proper adjustment of repayment based on the exchange rate between the repayment currency and the hedge currency, for instance, gold proviso clause, the hard currency hedge, and a basketof currencies. The latter can maintain the value of contracts in relation to the composite currency, like Special Drawing Right (SDR).(5) Using Leads and Lags to mitigate risks or improve profits. Leads will result when private sector making payments expect an increasing foreign-exchange rate, while lags arise when the exchange rate is expected to fall. Leads will result when the private sector making payments and expects an increasing foreign-exchange rate, while lags arise when the exchange rate is expected to fall. Leads and lags are used in an attempt to mitigate risks or improve profits.(6)Buying export credit insurance with export credit agencies against the currency exchange risk. Export credit insurance protects the foreign receivables against virtually all commercial and political risks that could result in non-payment of project company’s export invoices. This insurance especially is offered by national export credit agencies to help exporters to deal withthecurrency exchange risk.(7) Using Letter of Credit to substitute a portion of the security deposit, so the project company may take currency back in advance tomitigate foreign exchange rate risk. Letters of credit are often used in international transactions to ensurethat payment will be received. A letter from a bank can guarantee that a buyer's payment to a seller will be received on time and for the correct amount. In the event that the buyer is unable to make payment on the purchase, the bank will be required to cover the full or remaining amount of the purchase. By using a letter of credit to substitute a portion of the security deposit, the project company may take currency back inadvance to mitigate foreign exchange rate risk.(8) Using financial derivatives to prevent currency exchange rate risk, such as forward exchanges, swaps, foreign exchange futures/options, and currency swaps.Forward ExchangeA forward contract involves an exchange with a delayed settlement. Traders set down contract conditions (specifically the date ofsettlement and the price) upon signing the contract, and the exchange is actually settled at a future, pre-agreed date. A forward contract might pertain to a currency exchange rate (on maturity, the traders sell each other one form of currency for another on the basis of an exchange rate set when the contract is drawn up).Futures on Exchange RatesA future is a forward agreement in which all the contractual provisions are standardized. In futures markets, a clearing house serves to guarantee obligations resulting from futures exchanges. This organization requires traders to pay an initial margin as collateral and daily variation margins until the position closes. Due to this fact, futures differ from forward contracts in light of their lower risk for counterparties and greater market liquidity. Futures markets, in fact, offer contracts written on the most widely exchanged currencies on an international level (Gatti 2008).Options on Exchange RatesA currency option is a viable alternative to futures, swaps, and forwards because it represents a right to buy or sella currency at a price and accounts for the volatility or the swings in currency prices. However, options are quite expensive, because protection is bought against adverse movements in the financial price but gains are also allowed from a favorable movement in the price (Clark & Marois, 1996).Currency SwapsCurrency swaps represent an agreement between two entities where one entity promises payment in one currency and the other promisesto make payments in another currency. Basically, a foreign exchange swap indicates there is a swap of a spot buy or a sale of foreign exchange offset by a forward sale or a buy. Currency swaps are a method to swap the risk for one party while the other party assumes a certain degree of risk. However, this is probably not the best mitigation tool due tothe high expenses involved if one of the currencies is not a desired/maincurrency (Chandra and Chang, 2000).(9)Balancing lending and investing to control exchange rate risk.The Balance method is effectively used in international transactionsfor controlling currency exchange risk. Take one example of balancing lending and investing is that during the same period, the private sector makes a investment which involves a local currency with the same quantity and opposite trend in order to avoid foreign exchange risk. Other ways ofbalancing are such as Borrowing, Investing, Borrow-Spot-Invest (BSI), Lead-Spot-Invest (LSI), Forfeiting, etc.(10) Utilizing multi-currency options of a syndicated loan to arrange the financing monetary structure. From project finance practice, more than 3000 million US dollar in developing countries, or more than 100 million in developed countries, of debt financing must be resolved by syndicated loans. The project sponsor should fully consider the demand for different currencies at all stages of project implementation and make full use of multi-currency options, especially in a syndicated loan, to make reasonable arrangements for currencies structure in order to minimize the foreign exchange risk, which may cause cash flow uncertainty, such as maintaining the balance between borrowing currencies and charge currency.(11) Getting advice from international institutions regarding the project’s currency exchange risk and useful actions to minimize this risk.There are numerous institutions providing services for forecasting exchange rates. Besides, the project manager should establish his/her own group which focuses on observing exchange rate fluctuations that have occurred and analyzing its impact on project progress, while providing a prediction of the tendency of short-term and long-term exchange rate.In accordance with the above discussion, a comparison of different mitigation measures faced exchange rate risk can be concluded, as below in Table 4.1.4.4 Currency Convertibility RiskMany countries impose foreign exchange restrictions or controls to prevent currency speculation and to protect their reserves. These restrictions affect the availability and value of a currency. These controls are designed to limit a customer's ability to freely convert one currency into another. Permission to exchange currencies must be given by the central bank of that country before the transaction can take place.The mitigation measures for currency convertibility risk mainly include:(1) Obtaining the host government’s guarantees on convertibility. This applies to concessions where the convertibility of currency can be guaranteed. Obtaining guarantees from the government is always the most effective measure for mitigating the exchange rate and convertibility risks.(2) Adopting alternative forms of currencies (local and foreign currency) as repayment in contract to mitigate currency convertibility risk. Set dual-currency selective repayment in contracts to mitigate lower currency convertibility risk. Which means one portion of the payment can be made in local currency and the other payment can be in the foreign currency. This measure is significant for lower currency convertibility risk.(3) Increasing bond financing to reduce the amount of direct loans, thus reducing the project company’s currency risk. The private sector can reduce the amount of direct loans by issuing bonds that can be of fixed and floating rates of interest, thus avoiding the currency risk. In this regard, bond financing is often used in reducing interest rate risk and currency convertibility risk. However, bond issuance is a long and expensive process compared to acquiring bank loans.(4)Establishing a contingency credit facility to cover unanticipated expenses. The private sector can extract the provision of risk by a certain percentage from profits each year so as to meet unexpected financial losses.(5) Training the senior management team of the project company with the related financial knowledge. Special attention should be paid to exchange rate risk for international PPP projects. In particular, company leaders and decision-makers, management personnel, financial personnel should have an understanding about foreign exchange tendency and international economic dynamics associated with the projects. Contract negotiators’understanding of exchange rate risk should bestrengthened so as to have affective planning to avoid exchange rate risk.。
财务风险管理外文文献翻译译文
Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originatewith events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequentmarket reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchangerates, interest rates, and commodity prices.Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as aresult of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it.Identifying exposuresand risks forms the basis for an appropriatefinancial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as aresult of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1.Financial risks arising from an organization e'xpsosure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2.Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3.Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessingthe financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitatesmaking organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not.The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization r'isks tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset.Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change.Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows: 1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modernportfolio theory considers not only an asset 'ri s kiness, but alsoits contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities fordiversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks.Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails.Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management'scontrol. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets.Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges,appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization 'exsposure and risk. Alternatively, existing exposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1.Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2.Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3.Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk managementprocess is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender 'a s sets.The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in other financial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include: 1、Expected levels of inflation 2、General economic conditions 3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank 4、Foreign exchange market activity 5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities 6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding 7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-yearterms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yieldcurve provides useful information about the market 'esxpectations offuture interest rates.Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculatedusing theinformation in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one-and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interestrate' s time can beginning in one year be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is oftenconsidered to be a predictor of future economic activity and mayprovide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longerlending terms.Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term tomaturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected bythe expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least theexpected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lendingand risk components. If investors expect future inflation to behigher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms tocompensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term,the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increasessubstantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above thelevel of longer term interest rates.This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slopeto its appearance.The high cost of short-term funds detracts fromgains that would otherwise be obtained through investment andexpansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to anormal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加,但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
财务管理外文翻译(原文+译文))
【2016年9月】原文:Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result ofrisk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the。
财务管理系统中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文资料翻译A Financial Control System that Focuses on Improvement and SuccessOf course, we are not saying that businesses should ignore prudent controls over their cash drawer. The point is that focusing on small components while not knowing how much cash is tied up in receivables does not represent a control system that recognizes priorities and risk. Focusing solely on the rote and mundane does little to improve your overall financial performance. Financial control systems shouldn’t just be about compliance, they should be about continually improving key aspects of the financial operation such as:∙Regularly reviewing and improving the overall capital structure.∙Using a capital plan to minimize the cost of capital while strengthening the Debt/Equity position.∙Managing working capital so excessive inventories and receivables do not sap financial resources.∙Ensuring proper calculations and scenarios are explored while making debt/investment or leasing decisions.∙Maximizing returns while minimizing costs for cash and merchant accounts.A control system of well-defined processes is not only about control or compliance, it is also about consistently striving to do a little better. Control systems that are designed only to achieve compliance are doing the bare minimum, and they represent a missed opportunity to gain improvement and a competitive edge. And that should be enough reason for any size and type of company to think about using a continual improving process approach to creating a financial internal control system. Sox is nice; but continual improvement is better for everyone.Financial control of projectsPurpose:Established and effective cost control systems and procedures, understood and adopted by all members of the project team, entail less effort than ‘crisis management’ and will release management effort to other areas of the project.Fitness for purpose checklist:∙The prime objective of the government’s procurement policy is to achieve best VFM.∙To exercise financial/cost control, project sponsors need to review and act on the best and most appropriate cost information. This means that they should receive regular, consistent and accurate cost reports that are both comprehensive in detail and presented in a manner that permits easyunderstanding of both status and trends. Reports need to be tailored to suit the individual needs of each project and should always be presented to givea comparison of the present position with the control estimate.∙Reports to project sponsors normally give only the status of the project overall. But sponsors will on occasion need to monitor costs against a specific cost centre in more detail. The typical contents of a cost report are given in Annex A.∙Tables of figures are essential, but for rapid understanding and analysis of trends some graphs are helpful.Suggested content:The following aspects should be addressed in a financial report (rather than repeating detailed information available in earlier reports, later reports can summarise the key points and cross refer to the relevant earlier reports):∙development of budget∙original authorised budget∙new budget authorisations (giving justification for changes)∙current authorised budget∙expenditure to date(Each section on budgets and expenditure should address the original base estimates and risk allowances for each element)∙commitments∙agreed variations (giving justification for variations)∙potential/expected claims or disputes awaiting resolution (if the project is going well, this area should be small)∙commitments required to complete∙orders yet to be placed∙variations pending∙future changes anticipated.Each of the following cost elements should be covered:∙in-house costs and expenses (including all central support services, administration, overheads etc)∙consultancy fees and expenses (design, feasibility, client advice, legal, construction management, site supervision etc)∙land costs∙way leaves and compensation∙demolition and diversion of existing facilities∙new construction or refurbishment costs∙operating costs∙maintenance costs∙disposal costs∙insurance costs∙all other costs relating to the project not listed above.∙All prices need to be discounted to a common base.∙Example of a cost summary reportFinancial ControlFinancial Control is a major contributory factor to business survival. For many managers, exercising effective financial control is, at best, seen as a mystery and, at worst, not even considered. Yet monitoring a small number of important figures can ensure that you retain complete and effective financial control.ObjectivesThis section is intended to help you put in place that financial control: to ensure that you are estimating costs accurately and then keeping them under control; to ensure that you are charging and/or paying the right price; and to ensure that you can collect money owed to you and can pay your bills as they fall due. Its objectives are:∙to demonstrate how effective financial control assists in the management of the organisation in which you work;∙to show that control can be achieved through simple documentation; and,∙to suggest financial indicators for inclusion in your strategic objectives.1 Achieving ControlGood financial results will not arise by happy accident! They will arise by realistic planning and tight control over expenses. Remember that profit is the comparatively small difference between two large numbers: sales and costs. A relatively small change in either costs or sales, therefore, has a disproportionate effect on profit.You must watch your costs/prices and margins very carefully at all times since small changes in any of these areas can lead to substantial changes in net profit. Control can then be exercised by comparing actual performance with budget. To do this, you will need to produce:∙ a financial plan, agreed as being achievable by all concerned; and,∙some means of monitoring performance against the plan.Since there will always be differences between the actual and the plan, you need some form of control. Beyond a certain organisational size, control can only be exercised by delegation; the human aspect of control is, therefore, important.Why keep records?Accurate record keeping is required if you are to be effective in monitoring performance against budget. Other reasons why you will need to keep accurate records are:∙there is a legal obligation to do so;∙any shareholders may want accounts;∙the VAT inspectors will need them;∙HM Revenue and Customs will require them;∙potential suppliers may require them;∙you will need to report accurate figures to your stakeholders;∙you will need to identify areas of possible concern; and,∙you will need to investigate and explain variances (under or overspends against your budget).Accounting records will need to be detailed enough for you to be able to say at any one time what the financial position is; ie, how much cash is in the business or the budget? How much do you owe? How much is owed to you? How big is the overdraft (or overspend)? How long could bills be paid for if cash stopped flowing in? What is the profit margin?Financial control will be poor if there are no clear objectives and a lack of knowledge of the basic information necessary to run a business or departmentsuccessfully. A lack of appreciation of the cash needs for a given rate of activity and a tendency to assume that poor results stem from economic conditions or even bad luck will only exacerbate the situation.Accounting centresOne way of delegating financial responsibility is to set up a system of accounting centres. Where businesses make a range of products, putting each into a different accounting centre makes it easier to determine which of the products are profitable. Some costs (eg factory rent) are more difficult to allocate, so may be recorded in a holding account and then split between products. Indirect costs could be allocated by the proportion of sales represented by each product (by volume or cost), by proportion of machine time used, or by some other appropriate method.This split will give an indication of the profitability of each product, but you should beware of ceasing sales of a particular product because of low profit or loss - the costs currently charged to that accounting centre would have to be redistributed among those remaining, so necessitating increased sales of those products.There are four possible levels of financial responsibility with appropriate targets and control requirements:∙revenue centre - staff only have responsibility for income (eg a sales department in a store). Staff have sales targets against which income is measured and compared;∙cost centre - staff have responsibility for keeping costs within set targets, but do not have to worry about where the money comes from (eg an NHS Trust department);∙profit centre - staff have more responsibility and control and will agree targets of profitability and absolute levels of profit (eg a division within a larger company). Control is achieved throughmonitoring performance as measured by the profit and loss account (P&L); they are unable, however, to invest in new equipment; and,∙investment centre - the staff have authority over investments and the use of assets (eg a subsidiary company) although the holding company would typically need to approve major investment. Targetswould focus on return on capital and control would be through monitoring performance measured bythe complete accounts.2 Management Information SystemsIf your financial control is to be effective you need to regularly analyse your actual performance figures and compare them against the financial plan and, perhaps, performance of the business historically.An easy way of comparing actuals and budgets is variance analysis. Usually, only a few figures need to be watched regularly to achieve effective control. Using a computer-based spreadsheet will assist you with all your analysis requirements.Having a suitable management information system (MIS) is a prerequisite for effective monitoring. Although it might sound daunting, an MIS can be extremely simple. An MIS is simply a set of procedures set up by you and your staff to ensure that data about the business is collected, recorded, reported and evaluated quickly and efficiently. That information is then used to check the progress of the business and to control it effectively. For most small businesses, there are likely only to be a few key elements.∙Marketing monitoring - Are you achieving your sales targets, in terms of level of sales and market share? How full is your order book? Are customers paying the right price?∙Production- How does the level of output compare with the level of sales?What is the percentage of rejects? How does the actual cost compare with the standard cost?∙Staff monitoring - Are they being effective? Are they satisfied and motivated?∙Financial control - Are you meeting your financial targets?You will need proper systems in place to ensure that:∙You keep careful track of everything bought by the business, especially if the person ordering is not the person who pays the bills;∙You record everything sold by the business and that everything is properly invoiced, especially if the person doing the selling is not the person who raises the invoices or chases customers for payment;∙There is an effective stock control system which records incoming raw materials and compares them against purchase orders, monitors progress through the production stages (if appropriate) and records the dispatch of finished goods; and,∙All payments and receipts are recorded to ensure that bank balances and overdraft limits are kept within agreed levels.Computerised accounting packages and spreadsheets make it relatively straightforward to record data and present it in an easily understood format. It still requires discipline to ensure that the data is collected, but making an effort will be rewarded through improved understanding of your business.The key to an effective MIS is to ensure that you only monitor a small number of figures and that those figures relate back to the strategic objectives and the operational objectives that you have set for your business. If other people needto see the figures, ensure that they get them speedily. If your system of financial control is to be successful, figures must be quickly available after month end.一个财务管理系统,该系统的改进与成功重点当然,我们并不是说,企业应该忽视对他们的现金抽屉审慎控制。
企业财务风险管理 外文文献翻译
文献出处:Błach J. Financial Risk Identification Based on the Balance Sheet Information[J]. Managing and Modelling of Financial Risks, 2016,1: 10-19.第一部分为译文,第二部分为原文。
默认格式:中文五号宋体,英文五号Times New Roma,行间距1.5倍。
基于资产负债表信息的财务风险识别摘要:现代经济风险暴露不断增加,所有企业都要承担不同类型的风险。
本文研究财务风险的定义,组成部分,因素和后果,以及通过资产负债表提供的信息的使用来识别和分析财务风险。
此外,还介绍了这种财务风险评估方法的优缺点,以100个最大波兰公司10年(2000-2009年)的汇总数据为例,测试了根据资产负债表信息确定财务风险的潜力。
关键词:财务风险,财务分析,风险评估,资产负债表。
1. 引言现代社会往往被描述为“风险社会”,这意味着社会的财富生产伴随着社会风险生产。
因此,在这种环境下经营的企业,被迫采取不同类型的风险识别,以发展自己,提高效率。
考虑到不同类型的标准,有各种各样的企业风险进行分析和分类。
企业风险最重要的类型之一是财务风险。
2.财务风险定义及其组成部分文献中没有统一的财务风险定义。
但问题始于风险的一般定义。
在理论上,提出了风险定义的两个概念。
第一个-负面概念将风险描述为潜在损失的威胁。
第二个-中立概念表明,风险不仅是威胁,也是机会,所以风险意味着获得不同于预期的结果的可能性。
因此,风险的定义主要取决于风险的方法,并且可能导致管理者采取的不同行动。
如果采取负面做法,管理人员的主要目标是尽可能减少潜在的损失,并设法避免危险行为,以稳定公司的情况。
在第二种情况下,经理们不仅要尽量减少损失,还要尽量利用承担风险,改善公司状况。
因此,可以从中性或消极的角度分析任何类型的风险的金融风险。
财务风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
财务风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献译文:[美]卡伦〃A〃霍契.《什么是财务风险管理?》.《财务风险管理要点》.约翰.威立国际出版公司,2005:P1-22.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加,但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
全球市场越来越多的问题是,风险可能来自几千英里以外的与这些事件无关的国外市场。
意味着需要的信息可以在瞬间得到,而其后的市场反应,很快就发生了。
经济气候和市场可能会快速影响外汇汇率变化、利率及大宗商品价格,交易对手会迅速成为一个问题。
因此,重要的一点是要确保金融风险是可以被识别并且管理得当的。
准备是风险管理工作的一个关键组成部分。
什么是风险?风险给机会提供了基础。
风险和暴露的条款让它们在含义上有了细微的差别。
风险是指有损失的可能性,而暴露是可能的损失,尽管他们通常可以互换。
风险起因是由于暴露。
金融市场的暴露影响大多数机构,包括直接或间接的影响。
当一个组织的金融市场暴露,有损失的可能性,但也是一个获利或利润的机会。
金融市场的暴露可以提供战略性或竞争性的利益。
风险损失的可能性事件来自如市场价格的变化。
事件发生的可能性很小,但这可能导致损失率很高,特别麻烦,因为他们往往比预想的要严重得多。
换句话说,可能就是变异的风险回报。
由于它并不总是可能的,或者能满意地把风险消除,在决定如何管理它中了解它是很重要的一步。
识别暴露和风险形式的基础需要相应的财务风险管理策略。
财务风险是如何产生的呢?无数金融性质的交易包括销售和采购,投资和贷款,以及其他各种业务活动,产生了财务风险。
它可以出现在合法的交易中,新项目中,兼并和收购中,债务融资中,能源部分的成本中,或通过管理的活动,利益相关者,竞争者,外国政府,或天气出现。
当金融的价格变化很大,它可以增加成本,降低财政收入,或影响其他有不利影响的盈利能力的组织。
金融波动可能使人们难以规划和预算商品和服务的价格,并分配资金。
有三种金融风险的主要来源:1、金融风险起因于组织所暴露出来的市场价格的变化,如利率、汇率、和大宗商品价格。
中小企业财务风险管理外文文献翻译2017
外文文献翻译原文及译文文献出处: Sharifi, Omid. International Journal of Information, Business and Management 6.2 (May 2017): 82-94.原文Financial R isk M ana gement for Small and M edium SizedEnter pr ises(SM ES)Omid SharifiMBA, Depa rtment of Commerce and Business Ma nagement,Ka ka tiya University, House No. 2-1-664, Sa ra wa thi nega r,1.ABSTR AC Tmedium sized Enterprises (SME) do also face business risks, Similar to large companies, Small and Mwhich in worst case can cause financial distress and lead to bankruptcy. However, although SME are a major part of the India and also international - economy, research mainly focused on risk management in large corporations. Therefore the aim of this paper is to suggest a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen.The data required for the study was collected from Annual report of the Intec Capital Limited. For the period of five years, from 2008 to 2012.the findings showed the data and the overview can be used in SME risk management.Keywor ds: Annual report, Small and Medium sized Enterprises, Financial Risks, Risk Management.2.INTR UDUC TIONSmall and medium sized enterprises (SME) differ from large corporations among other aspects first of all in their size. Their importance in the economy however is large . SME sector of India is considered as the backbone of economy contributing to 45% of the industrial output, 40% of India’s exports, employing 60 million people, create 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8000 quality products for the Indian and international markets. With approximately 30 million SMEs in India, 12 million people expected to join the workforce in next 3 years and the sector growing at a rate of 8% per year, Government of India is taking different measures so as to increase their competitiveness in the international market. There are several factors that have contributed towards the growth of Indian SMEs.Few of these include; funding of SMEs by local and foreign investors, the new technology that is used in the market is assisting SMEsadd considerable value to their business, various trade directories and trade portals help facilitate trade between buyer and supplier and thus reducing the barrier to trade With this huge potential, backed up by strong government support; Indian SMEs continue to post their growth stories. Despite of this strong growth, there is huge potential amongst Indian SMEs that still remains untapped. Once this untapped potential becomes the source for growth of these units, there would be no stopping to India posting a GDP higher than that of US and China and becoming the world’s economic powerhouse.3. R ESEAR C H QUESTIONRisk and economic activity are inseparable. Every business decision and entrepreneurial act is connected with risk. This applies also to business of small and medium sized enterprises as they are also facing several and often the same risks as bigger companies. In a real businessenvironment with market imperfections they need to manage those risks in order to secure their business continuity and add additional value by avoiding or reducing transaction costs and cost of financial distress or bankruptcy. However, risk management is a challenge for most SME. In contrast to larger companies they often lack the necessary resources, with regard to manpower, databases and specialty of knowledge to perform a standardized and structured risk management. The result is that many smaller companies do not perform sufficient analysis to identify their risk. This aspect is exacerbated due to a lack in literature about methods for risk management in SME, as stated by Henschel: The two challenging aspects with regard to risk management in SME are therefore:1.SME differ from large corporations in many characteristics2.The existing research lacks a focus on risk management in SMEThe following research question will be central to this work:1.h ow can SME manage their internal financial risk?2.W hich aspects, based on their characteristics, have to be taken into account for this?3.W hich mean fulfils the requirements and can be applied to SME?4. L ITER ATUR E R EVIEWIn contrast to larger corporations, in SME one of the owners is often part of the management team. His intuition and experience are important for managing the company. Therefore, in small companies, the (owner-)manager is often responsible for many different tasks and important decisions. Most SME do not have the necessary resources to employ specialists on every position in the company. They focus on their core business and have generalists for the administrative functions. Behr and Guttler find that SME on average have equity ratios lower than 20%. The different characteristics of management, position on procurement and capital markets and the legal framework need to be taken into account when applying management instruments like risk management. Therefore the risk management techniques of larger corporations cannot easily be applied to SME. In practice it can therefore be observed that although SME are not facing less risks and uncertainties than large companies, their risk management differs from the practices in larger companies. The latter have the resources to employ a risk manager and a professional, structured and standardized risk management system. In contrast to that, risk management in SME differs in the degree of implementation and the techniques applied. Jonen & Simgen-Weber With regard to firm size and the use of risk management. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius observe in a study from 2010 that increasing firm size among SME enhances the use of risk management. This observation matches with the opinion of nearly 10% of SME, which are of the opinion, that risk management is only reasonable in larger corporations. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius find that most of the surveyed SME identify risks with help of statistics,checklists, creativity and scenario analyses. reveals similar findings and state that most companies rely on key figure systems for identifying and evaluating the urgency of business risks. That small firms face higher costs of hedging than larger corporations. This fact is reducing the benefits from hedging and therefore he advises to evaluate the usage of hedging for each firm individually. The lacking expertise to decide about hedges in SME is also identified by Eckbo, According to his findings, smaller companies often lack the understanding and management capacities needed to use those instruments.5.M ETHODOL OGYE OF FINANC IAL ANAL YSIS IN SM E R ISK M ANAGEM ENTHow financial analysis can be used in SME risk management?5.1.1 Development of financial r isk over view for SM EThe following sections show the development of the financial risk overview. After presenting the framework, the different ratios will be discussed to finally present a selection of suitable ratios and choose appropriate comparison data.5.1.2.Fr a mewor k for fina ncial r isk over viewThe idea is to use a set of ratios in an overview as the basis for the financial risk management.This provides even more information than the analysis of historicaldata and allows reacting fast on critical developments and managing the identified risks. However not only the internal data can be used for the risk management. In addition to that also the information available in the papers can be used.Some of them state average values for the defaulted or bankrupt companies one year prior bankruptcy -and few papers also for a longer time horizon. Those values can be used as a comparison value to evaluate the risk situation of the company. For this an appropriate set of ratios has to be chosen.The ratios, which will be included in the overview and analysis sheet, should fulfill two main requirements. First of all they should match the main financial risks of the company in order to deliver significant information and not miss an important risk factor. Secondly the ratios need to be relevant in two different ways. On the one hand they should be applicable independently of other ratios. This means that they also deliver useful information when not used in a regression, as it is applied in many of the papers. On the other hand to be appropriate to use them, the ratios need to show a different development for healthy companies than for those under financial distress. The difference between the values of the two groups should be large enough to see into which the observed company belongs.5.1.3.Eva lua tion of r a tios for fina ncia l r isk over v iewWhen choosing ratios from the different categories, it needs to be evaluated which ones are the most appropriate ones. For this some comparison values are needed in order to see whether the ratios show different values and developments for the two groups of companies. The most convenient source for the comparison values are the research papers as their values are based on large samples of annual reports and by providing average values outweigh outliers in the data. Altman shows a table with the values for 8 different ratios for the five years prior bankruptcy of which he uses 5, while Porporato & Sandin use 13 ratios in their model and Ohlson bases his evaluation on 9 figures and ratios [10]. Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic also show the difference in ratios between the two groups, however only directly before bankruptcy and not as a development over time [9]. Therefore this information is not as valuable as the others ([4][15]).In summary, the main internal financial risks in a SME should be covered by financial structure, liquidity and profitability ratios, which are the main categories of ratios applied in the research papers.Fina ncial str uctur eA ratio used in many of the papers is the total debt to total assets ratio, analyzing the financial structure of the company. Next to the papers of Altman, Ohlson and Porporato & Sandin also Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic show comparison values for this ratio. Thosedemonstrate a huge difference in size between the bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups.Figur e 1: Development of tota l debt/tota l a ssets r a tioData sour ce: Altman (1968), Por por a to & Sandin (2007) and Ohlson (1980), author ’s illustr a tionTherefore the information of total debt/total assets is more reliable and should rather be used for the overview. The other ratios analyzing the financial structure are only used in one of the papers and except for one the reference data only covers the last year before bankruptcy. Therefore a time trend cannot be detected and their relevance cannot be approved.C ost of debtThe costs of debt are another aspect of the financing risk. Porporato & Sandin use the variable interest payments/EB IT for measuring the debt costs. The variable shows how much of the income before tax and interest is spend to finance the debt. This variable also shows a clear trend when firms approach bankruptcy.L iquidityThe ratio used in all five papers to measure liquidity is the current ratio, showing the relation between current liabilities and current assets (with slight differences in the definition). Instead of the current ratio, a liquidity ratio setting the difference between current assets and current liabilities, also defined as working capital, into relation with total assets could be used.Figur e 2: Development of wor king capita l /total assets r a tioData sour ce: Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980); author ’s illustr a t ioBasically the ratio says whether the firm would be able to pay back all its’current liabilities by using its’current assets. In case it is not able to, which is when the liabilities exceed the assets, there is an insolvency risk.6.C R ITIC AL R EVIEW AND C ONC L USIONWhen doing business, constantly decisions have to be made, whoseoutcome is not certain and thus connected with risk. In order to successfully cope with this uncertainty, corporate risk management is necessary in a business environment, which is influenced by market frictions. Different approaches and methods can be found for applying such a risk management. However, those mainly focus on large corporations, though they are the minority of all companies[13].Furthermore the approaches often require the use of statistical software and expert knowledge, which is most often not available in SME. They and their requirements for risk management have mainly been neglected [17][13].This also includes the internal financial risk management, which was in the focus of this paper. Due to the existing risks in SME and their differences to larger corporations as well as the lack of suitable risk management suggestions in theory, there is a need for a suggestion for a financial risk management in SME. The aim was to find a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. Based on an examination and analysis of different papers, despite of their different models, many similarities in the applied ratios could be identified. In general the papers focus on three categories of risk, namely liquidity, profitability and solvency, which are in accordance to the maininternal financial risks of SME. From the ratios the most appropriate ones with regard to their effectiveness in identifying risks.译文中小企业财务风险管理研究奥米德沙利菲1、摘要中小型企业( SME) 和大型企业一样,也面临着业务风险,在最糟糕的情况下,可能会导致金融危机,甚至破产。
投资基金财务风险文献综述中英文资料外文翻译文献
投资基金财务风险文献综述中英文资料外文翻译文献摘要本文综述了有关投资基金财务风险的中英文资料外文翻译文献。
文献说明了投资基金面临的财务风险种类、风险管理策略以及对投资者的影响。
本文旨在为研究投资基金财务风险的学者提供相关资料,以促进对该领域的进一步研究。
文献1:《Investment fund financial risks and their implications》本文研究了投资基金面临的财务风险以及这些风险对投资者和市场的影响。
研究发现,投资基金的财务风险包括市场风险、信用风险和流动性风险。
为了管理这些风险,投资基金公司可以采取多种策略,如多元化投资组合和使用衍生工具。
然而,财务风险仍然存在,并可能对投资者的收益产生负面影响。
本文综述了投资基金的财务风险管理策略。
研究发现,投资基金公司可以通过风险度量、风险分散、风险对冲和流动性管理等方法来管理财务风险。
然而,有效的财务风险管理需要综合考虑投资目标、风险承受能力和环境因素等因素。
因此,投资基金公司应该定期评估和调整其财务风险管理策略。
文献3:《The impact of financial risks on investor behavior in investment funds》本文研究了财务风险对投资者行为的影响。
研究发现,投资基金的财务风险可能导致投资者的情绪波动和投资行为的变化。
投资者在面临财务风险时可能更加保守,减少风险敏感的投资,并选择更稳健的投资策略。
因此,理解财务风险对投资者行为的影响对于投资基金公司和投资者都非常重要。
结论综合上述文献,投资基金面临的财务风险种类多样,包括市场风险、信用风险和流动性风险。
为了管理这些风险,投资基金公司可以采取多种策略,如多元化投资组合和使用衍生工具。
然而,财务风险仍然存在,并可能对投资者的收益产生负面影响。
此外,财务风险还可能影响投资者的行为,导致投资决策的变化。
因此,投资基金公司应该认识到财务风险的存在并采取适当的风险管理策略。
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性,平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益,请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间:9:00-18:30)。
中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)译文:财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加,但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
全球市场越来越多的问题是,风险可能来自几千英里以外的与这些事件无关的国外市场。
意味着需要的信息可以在瞬间得到,而其后的市场反应,很快就发生了。
经济气候和市场可能会快速影响外汇汇率变化、利率及大宗商品价格,交易对手会迅速成为一个问题。
因此,重要的一点是要确保金融风险是可以被识别并且管理得当的。
准备是风险管理工作的一个关键组成部分。
什么是风险?风险给机会提供了基础。
风险和暴露的条款让它们在含义上有了细微的差别。
风险是指有损失的可能性,而暴露是可能的损失,尽管他们通常可以互换。
风险起因是由于暴露。
金融市场的暴露影响大多数机构,包括直接或间接的影响。
当一个组织的金融市场暴露,有损失的可能性,但也是一个获利或利润的机会。
金融市场的暴露可以提供战略性或竞争性的利益。
风险损失的可能性事件来自如市场价格的变化。
事件发生的可能性很小,但这可能导致损失率很高,特别麻烦,因为他们往往比预想的要严重得多。
换句话说,可能就是变异的风险回报。
由于它并不总是可能的,或者能满意地把风险消除,在决定如何管理它中了解它是很重要的一步。
识别暴露和风险形式的基础需要相应的财务风险管理策略。
财务风险是如何产生的呢?无数金融性质的交易包括销售和采购,投资和贷款,以及其他各种业务活动,产生了财务风险。
它可以出现在合法的交易中,新项目中,兼并和收购中,债务融资中,能源部分的成本中,或通过管理的活动,利益相关者,竞争者,外国政府,或天气出现。
当金融的价格变化很大,它可以增加成本,降低财政收入,或影响其他有不利影响的盈利能力的组织。
金融波动可能使人们难以规划和预算商品和服务的价格,并分配资金。
有三种金融风险的主要来源:1、金融风险起因于组织所暴露出来的市场价格的变化,如利率、汇率、和大宗商品价格。
2、引起金融风险的行为有与其他组织的交易如供应商、客户,和对方在金融衍生产品中的交易。
3、由于内部行动或失败的组织,特别是人、过程和系统所造成的金融风险。
什么是财务风险管理?财务风险管理是用来处理金融市场中不确定的事情的。
它涉及到一个组织所面临的评估和组织的发展战略、内部管理的优先事项和当政策一致时的财务风险。
企业积极应对金融风险可以使企业成为一个具有竞争优势的组织。
它还确保管理,业务人员,利益相关者,董事会董事在对风险的关键问题达成协议。
金融风险管理组织就必须作出那些不被接受的有关风险的决定。
那些被动不采取行动的战略是在默认情况下接受所有的风险。
组织使用各种策略和产品来管理金融风险。
重要的是要了解这些产品和战略方面,通过工作来减少该组织内的风险承受能力和目标范围内的风险。
风险管理的策略往往涉及衍生工具。
在金融机构和有组织的交易所,衍生物广泛地进行交易。
衍生工具的合约的价值,如期货,远期,期权和掉期,是源自相关资产的价格。
衍生物利用利率,汇率,商品,股票和固定收入的证券,信贷,甚至是天气进行交易。
这些产品和市场参与者使用策略来管理金融风险,与由投机者用来提高风险的杠杆作用是相同。
虽然可以认为,衍生工具的广泛使用增加了风险,衍生品的存在使那些希望通过把它传递给那些寻求风险及相关机会的人降低了风险。
估计财务损失的可能性是非常令人满意的。
然而,概率标准的理论往往在金融市场的分析中不适用。
风险通常不会孤立存在的,通常会和几个风险的相互作用,必须认真考虑在发展中国家的金融风险是如何产生的。
有时,这些相互作用是很难预测的,因为它们最终取决于人的行为。
金融风险管理是一个持续不断的过程。
随着市场需求的变化和完善,战略必须得到执行。
有关的修改反映不断变化的市场利率,变化的预期营商环境,或例如不断变化的国际政治条件。
一般来说,这个过程可以概括如下:1、识别并优先考虑关键的财务风险。
2、确定适当的风险容忍程度。
3、按照政策实施风险管理战略。
4、按需要衡量,报告,监控和改进。
多样化多年来,公司资产的风险评价的可变性仅仅基于其回报。
与此形成对比的是,现代投资组合理论不仅考虑了一项资产的风险,而且是经济体总体风险的组合。
由于风险多样化,组织可以有机会来降低风险。
在投资组合管理方面,在一定限度内给个别部件组合提供了多样化的机会。
一个多元化的资产组合中包含的回报是不同的,换句话说,彼此之间的关系是弱或负面的。
考虑到一个投资组合的风险是非常有用的,并且应考虑改变或增加的潜在风险的总数。
多样化是一个管理金融风险的重要工具。
通过预设的组织,对手之间的多样化可以减少突发事件对组织所造成的不利影响而引起的风险。
其中投资资产多元化减少了发行人失败的损失程度。
多样化的客户、供应商和金融来源减少了一个组织的贸易被外面变化控制的负面影响的可能性。
虽然损失的风险仍然存在,多样化的机会可以减少大的不良结果。
风险管理过程金融风险管理过程中的战略使一个组织去管理与金融相关的风险市场。
风险管理是一个动态过程,应逐步发展成一个组织和它的生意。
它涉及和影响了许多方面,包括国债,销售,营销,法律,税务,商品组织和企业融资。
风险管理过程包括内部和外部分析。
该进程的第一部分包括确定和排列金融机构面临的风险和了解其相关性。
有必要审查该组织及其产品,管理,客户,供应商,竞争对手,价格,行业的发展趋势,资产负债结构,并在行业中的地位。
也有必要考虑利益相关者和他们的目标和风险承受能力。
一旦清楚地了解这些风险的出现,就可实施适当的策略会同风险管理政策。
例如,有可能改变的地方,从而减少该组织的暴露和风险。
另外,可能对现有的衍生工具进行风险管理。
另一种经营战略风险是接受所有的风险和损失的可能性。
有三个广泛的风险管理办法:1、什么都不做,在默认情况下,积极或被动地接受一切风险。
2、对冲一部分,通过确定那些可以而且应该进行对冲的风险。
3、所有可能的风险对冲。
风险的计量和报告提供给决策者与信息执行者决定和监测的结果,在它的前面和后面都采取策略来减轻。
由于风险管理进程仍在进行,报告和反馈可以用来精化系统的修改或改进策略体系。
活跃的决策过程是风险管理的重要组成部分。
讨论潜在的损失和为降低风险的决策提供了一个讨论重要问题与各种关于利益相关者的观点的场所。
财务比率的影响因素和价格财务比率及价格受多项因素的影响。
关键是要了解影响市场的因素,因为这些因素,反过来影响到一个组织的潜在风险。
影响利率的因素利率是许多市场价格的主要组成部分和重要的经济晴雨表。
它们是由真实利率加上通货膨胀的预期成分组成的,因为通货膨胀降低了贷款人的资产购买力。
离到期日越近,它的不确定性就越大。
利率也是资金的供给和需求和信贷风险的反射。
利率对企业和政府来说是非常重要的,因为他们是资金成本的关键因素。
大多数公司和政府债务融资需要扩展和基建项目。
当利率增加,对借款人有显著的影响。
利率也影响到其他金融市场的价格,所以他们的影响是深远的。
对利率的其他组件可能包括一个风险溢价,以反映借款人的信用。
例如,政治或主权风险的威胁可能导致利率上升,有时很大,因为随着投资者需求的增加,额外的补偿违约风险也会增加。
影响市场利率水平的因素包括:1、通货膨胀的预期水平2、总体经济状况3、货币政策和央行的立场4、外汇市场活动5、外国投资者对债务证券化的需求6、外债突出的水平7、金融和政治稳定收益率曲线收益率曲线产量是一种图形法,表示的是一系列条件成熟。
例如,一个收益率曲线可能说明产量在(一天一夜之间成熟)30年里的关系。
通常情况下,利率是零息政府率。
由于目前的利率反映的是预期的,收益曲线提供了有关未来市场预期的利率的有用信息。
前向启动利率的默示条款可以计算收益曲线的信息。
例如,使用一两个年到期利率,预计的一年期利率在一年的时间开始时才能确定。
对收益曲线的形状进行了分析和对广泛的市场参与者进行监测。
由于人们对它的期望,它通常被认为是未来经济活动的预测和可能提供的经济基本面有待改变的信号。
一般产量的收益率曲线向上倾斜是具有正斜率,就像贷方或投资者要求更高的利率因为贷款期限和借款人的持续的时间更长了。
由于期限至到期日,借款人违约的机会增加,贷款人要求相应的补偿。
利率构成的收益率曲线也受预期的通货膨胀率影响。
除了借款人的贷款和风险的部分,投资者要求借款人至少达到预期的通货膨胀率。
如果投资者预期的未来的通胀率会变得更高, 他们将会被要求延长还款期限,以弥补这种不确定性产生的更多的保费。
因此,期限越长,利率越高(在其它条件相同的情况),一个向上倾斜的收益率曲线就产生。
有时,短期资金的需求大幅增加,短期利率可能上升超过了长期利率的水平。
收益曲线向下倾斜,这是它的外观反演的结果。
短期资金成本高,否则将有损于通过投资获得扩张,使经济增长放缓或衰退。
最后,利率上升使短期和长期资金的需求都减少。
在所有利率下降到一个正常的曲线,可能会出现由于经济增长放缓而带来的回报。
出处:[美]卡伦·A·霍契.《什么是财务风险管理?》.《财务风险管理要点》.约翰.威立国际出版公司,2005:P1-22.原文:Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature,including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are tradedwidely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existing exposures may be managedwith derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in other financial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect thecreditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditions3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers,in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.Source: Karen A. Horcher, 2005. “What Is Financial Risk Management?”. Essentials of Financial Risk Management, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.pp.1-22.。