有限理性模型解读

保密级别：内部　学位级别：硕士　提交日期：２００２年４月　答辩日期：２００２年５月１７日　论文中文题目：心理资源稀缺论　——有限理性模型解读　论文英文题目：Ｔｈｅｏｒｙ　ｏｆ　ｔｈｅ　Ｓｃａｒｃｉｔｙ　ｏｆ　Ｐｓｙｃｈｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ　Ｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓ　——ｔｈｅ　Ｉｎｔｅｒｐｒｅｔａｔｉｏｎ　ｏｆ　Ｂｏｕｎｄｅｄ　Ｒａｔｉｏｎａｌｉｔｙ　Ｍｏｄｅｌ作 者：韩 丹　所在单位：吉林大学　指导教师：葛鲁嘉　所在单位：吉林大学　分类标识：Ｂ８４　中文主题标识：心理资源 稀缺 有限理性　英文主题标识：Ｐｓｙｃｈｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌ　Ｒｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｓ Ｓｃａｒｃｉｔｙ Ｂｏｕｎｄｅｄ　Ｒａｔｉｏｎａｌｉｔｙ　中文摘要决策科学自建立之初，就在人类理性问题的解释上含混不清，并对现实的决策行为缺乏描述力。

在当时占统治地位的古典决策理论醉心于模型的精确性和规范性，假定决策环境是绝对静止的，而人则拥有完全而精确的信息处理能力。

如果决策者能够知晓并找出所有可能的备择方案，拥有各种备择方案的结果的全部信息以及概率分布的完全信息；如果决策者头脑中就事先存在着一个完全有序的偏好体系——效用函数或优先选择的次序，即能够评价各种备择方案后果的某种价值体系——以至于他能够对所有的备择方案的后果加以排列，然后选出能够带给他最佳后果的那种方案；如果决策者具有无所不能的计算能力。

在这种“完全理性”的前提下，决策者总能做出“最优决策”。

然而，古典决策在人与环境的认识上存在着致命的缺陷。

首先，人类并不生活在绝对静止的环境中。

其次，人并不拥有绝对无限的信息处理能力。

古典决策理论的缺陷，不在于其逻辑体系，而在于其“完全理性经济人”的前提假设。

　西蒙对此进行了猛烈的批判。

这种批判实质上是对古典决策理论的人与环境认识的批判。

针对古典决策理论的缺陷，西蒙认为，世界是复杂的，而人的认知能力是有限的。

在这种与古典决策理论完全不同的研究思路指导下，西蒙提出了“有限理性”的概念。

西蒙指出，必须给人类理性加上限制，这种限制来自于两个方面：一、人类理性的程度并不高；二、人类理性的适用范围是有限的。

“有限理性”的提出，带来了决策理论研究的根本性变革，成为现代决策理论的基石。

　本文从分析有限理性的心理机制入手，探讨了人类认知能力有限的问题。

视人类信息处理能力为决策的稀缺资源是西蒙的创见，也是其思想核心——心理资源稀缺论——的逻辑起点。

　那么，西蒙是如何得出心理资源稀缺的结论的呢？本文认为，西蒙主要运用了常识检验与对认知心理学研究成果的采纳两种方法。

常识检验就是依据人们日常生活的经验和常识去判断理论描述的正确性。

西蒙认为，他的理论“很适合我们对自己的判断过程的内省性的了解，也很适合研究这些过程的心理学家们对它们的描述”。

认知心理学的研究成果有力地为其假设提供了佐证，并且西蒙对决策过程的实证研究极大地促进了认知心理学的发展，西蒙本人也成为信息加工理论的先驱。

　有限理性模型的心理资源稀缺论思想通过四个命题具体展示出来。

首先，心理资源稀缺构成决策的心理约束条件。

这种约束主要通过对进入人脑的决策信息的识别、选择与过滤来实现。

本文选取了决策信息输入中的“判断衰减”现象作为切入点，分析了注意力、感知能力、信息加工能力以及记忆系统的有限性在决策中所起的心理约束作用。

其次，从人与环境互动的角度出发，人是主动的环境刺激的接受者和反应者。

因此，稀缺心理资源对决策的约束并非是静止不变的，而是处于变动中的。

个体自身经验的丰富和思维的练习，个体间的交流以及现代决策技术的应用都可以使稀缺心理资源得到扩展。

但心理资源的扩展不是无限度的，它要受时间、精力、技术条件以及稀缺心理资源本身的限制。

因此，稀缺心理资源是决策的弹性的心理约束条件。

相对于纷繁复杂的环境，心理资源仍是稀缺的。

第三，西蒙将决策过程看作是问题求解和日常问题解决的一系列程序，这些程序的进行就是心理资源的使用。

本文围绕西蒙所谓的“程序理性”，对决策中的知觉、记忆、思维与问题求解以及定势和直觉等心理过程和决策行为方式进行了详细的分析。

第四，西蒙借用了经济学“效率”的观念，提出了稀缺心理资源的配置原则问题。

心理资源的配置首先应是有效率的。

效率准则指的是，在所用资源一定的情况下，选择能产生最大效益的备选方案。

自动化行为以及进化都是心理资源有效的配置方式。

心理资源的配置还必须考虑到决策情境的要求。

人类决策，必须考虑到当前任务的要求和环境的现实状况。

这样，人类心理资源的配置才更有效。

　西蒙的有限理性模型，开创了管理决策理论的新局面，带来了管理哲学上的变革。

这体现在：　⒈理性观念的变革。

西蒙指出，人并不存在全知全能的理性，人类理性的程度不高；人类理性是有限制的，我们只能在一定条件下谈论理性。

其根据在于理性的心理机制——人类的认知能力这一决策的心理资源——是稀缺的。

我们必须正视人类自身能力的局限。

⒉理论和方法上的变革。

人类决策行为的解释由单一化向多样化转变。

决策研究的中心也由建构理性计算模型向环境结构分析和决策方法探索转变。

西蒙对于有限理性心理机制以及决策过程信息处理机制的分析，促进了认知心理学的发展及其研究成果在管理决策中的应用。

然而，有限理性模型毕竟属于人类行为解释的理性模型的范畴。

理性模型存在着一种偏见，即认定决策者在进行备择方案的选择时必须首先考虑以最小的成本去获得最大的收益。

然而最终决策方案的选择，不能仅仅以成本收益分析作为唯一的标准。

此外，过于理性化的决策系统势必增加决策系统的封闭性。

应该看到，目前对有限理性模型研究的不足正在于对其蕴涵的心理资源稀缺论思想缺乏全面而深刻的理解和挖掘。

因而，本文所做的研究无疑具有重要的理论意义。

同时也希望对决策实践也起到一定的推动作用。

　英文摘要　Decision science was ambiguous and vague on human’s rationality at the very beginning, and also was short of the ability to describe real decision making behavior. Then this field was ruled by the the classical dicision theory, which was bent on precision and standardization of its models. It assumed that decision circumstances be static absolutely and human beings have absolute and accurate information processing ability. That means decision makers can know and find out all alternative programs, as well as have all information of their results and probability distribution of these results; there is perfect and ordered preference system in decision makers’mind beforehand, and it is a value system to appraise each program result, therefore according to this, decision makers can put all the programs in order and select the best one; decision makers possess omnipotent capability to calculate. Simon called these above ‘unbounded rationality’. If decision makers possess such rationality, they can always make ‘the optimal decision’. However, the classical dicision theory has its fatal weakness in understanding of human beings and circumstances. Firstly, circumstances are not static absolutely. Secondly, human beings have no absolute boundless information processing ability. The limitation ofthe classical dicision theory does not lie in its logical system but in its hypothesis of ‘unbounded rational economic man’. Simon criticized the hypothesis of ‘unbounded rational economic man’sharply. In fact, the criticism aimed mainly at its understanding of human beings and circumstances. He considers that circumstances are complicated and human being’s information processing ability is bounded. Under such different research train of thought from the classical dicision theory, he put forward the conception ‘bounded rationality’. He pointed out we must place restrictions on human beings’rationality, and which include: 1.the level of human beings’rationalization is not high; 2.the sphere of application of rationality is limited. The conception ‘bounded rationality’bought on the transformation of decision theory research thoroughly and became the cornerstone of modern decision theory.To begin with analysis of psychological mechanism of bounded rationality, this discourse probes into the problem of limitation of human beings’cognition capability. It is Simon’s creative viewpoint to regard human beings’information processing ability as scarce resources of decision makers, and it’s also the logical starting point of thoughts of his bounded rationality model——theory of the scarcity of psychological resources.Then, how did Simon get the conclusion that psychological resources of decision making are scarce? Thisdiscourse considers Simon mainly puts these following two methods into use: common sense test and adoption of research results of cognitive psychology. Common sense test means the accuracy of theoretical description be verified according to general knowledge. Simon thought his theory was in keeping with our own introspective understanding of judgment process and description of psychologists who researched into this process. Research results on cognitive psychology provide convincing demonstrates for his hypothesis. On the other hand, his positive research on decision making process promotes greatly the development of cognitive psychology, and as a result, he becomes one of pioneers of information processing theory.Theory of the scarcity of psychological resources of bounded rationality model consists of following four basic propositions. Firstly, the scarcity of psychological resources is the restriction of decision making process. The restriction means decision information must be discerned, selected and filtered before they enter human beings’mind. To begin with the phenomenon ‘judgment attenuation’in decision information input, this discourse analyzes the restrictions on decision making of attention, perception, information processing and memory. Secondly, from the point of view of interaction between human beings and circumstances, human beings are active receivers and reactors of stimuli in circumstances. Therefore, the psychological restrictions ondecision making are not static but dynamic. Scarce psychological resources can be expanded by following means: individual experience enrichment and thinking practice, exchanges among individuals and application of modern decision technology. However, the expansion is not boundless. It must be restricted by time, energy, technology and scarce psychological resources themselves. In a word, scarce psychological resources are flexibly psychological restrictions on decision. And in the final analysis, psychological r esources are still scarce as for complicated information. Thirdly, Simon regards decision making process as a series of problems solving, in the course of which psychological resources are used. Centering on Simon’s called ‘Procedual rationality’, this discourse analyzes psychological process and styles of decision behavior thoroughly, such as perception, memory, thinking and problem-solving as well as set and intuition. Fourthly, Simon used the idea ‘efficiency’in economics for reference and put forward the problem of disposition principle of scarce psychological resources. The disposition of psychological resources must be efficient. Efficiency principle means the program that makes greatest benefit should be chosen if resources we can use are definite. Automation behavior and evolution are both efficient disposition. Besides, the disposition should take decision situation in account. Decision of human beings must payclose attention to the demands of current tasks and real circumstances. Thus, the disposition of psychological resources is being more efficient.Simon’s bounded rationality model created a new situation in decision theory and initiated revolution of management philosophy. These embodies:1. Revolution on the idea of rationality. Simon pointed out human beings had no unbounded rationality. The degree of rationalization is not high, and the sphere of application of rationality is limited. Only in certain situation can we talk about rationality. This stems from the limitation of scarce psychological resources.2. Revolution on theory and method. Interpretation of decision behavior changes singlization into diversification. Besides, the center of decision research has changed into analysis of situation’s structure and exploration of decision making method. Simon’s analysis of psychological mechanism of bounded rationality and information processing mechanism of decision making process promoted development of cognitive psychology and application of its research results.After all, bounded rationality model belongs to rationality model of interpretation on people’s behavior. So it has a bias that decision maker must take it for granted that least cost gets optimal benefit. However, cost-benefit analysis can’t be the only criteria of selection of ultimatedecision program. Furthermore, the rational decision system certainly results in its blockage.The author holds that the weakness of current research on bounded rationality model lies in lack of overall and profound understanding about theory of the scarcity of psychological resources embodied in the model. Therefore this discourse has important sense on theoretical aspect.总　页　数：４６　开本是否有图表：否目录内容提要　一、前言……………………………………………………………１　二、有限理性的心理机制——心理资源稀缺论的逻辑起点……５三、常识检验与对认知心理学研究成果的采纳——探索心理资源稀缺的两个主要方法 .............................................８　（一）常识检验 .........................................................８　（二）对认知心理学研究成果的采纳 (9)四、心理资源稀缺论的基本命题 (10)（一）心理资源稀缺——决策的心理约束条件 (10)1、注意力有限……………………………………………１１2、感知能力有限…………………………………………１２3、分析能力有限……………………………………………１３4、记忆系统有限……………………………………………１４（二）稀缺心理资源的扩展机制………………………………１５1、个体自身的扩展………………………………………１５2、个体之间的交流………………………………………１６3、现代决策技术的应用…………………………………１６（三）心理资源的使用——决策过程的信息处理机制………１７1、知觉………………………………………………………１７2、记忆………………………………………………………１８3、思维与问题求解…………………………………………１８4、定势和知觉………………………………………………１９（四）心理资源的配置原则……………………………………２０1、效率原则…………………………………………………２０2、适应性原则………………………………………………２２五、结论…………………………………………………………２３注释…………………………………………………………２６参考文献…………………………………………………………２８论文摘要…………………………………………………………１Abstract……………………………………………………………１后记内容提要本文系统地考察了决策科学的建立与发展过程，并分析了目前有限理性模型研究中的不足。