曼昆经济学原理课件(下)-宏观部分，北大课件Chapter_36.ppt_Five debates

赞成：中央银行应该以零通胀为目标 Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation
减少通货膨胀的政策以一时之代价，换得永久 的利益。 Reducing inflation is a policy with temporary costs and permanent benefits. 一旦反通胀导致的衰退结束，零通胀的收益将 会用之不竭。 Once the disinflationary recession is over, the benefits of zero inflation would persist.
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3. 中央银行是否应该以零通货 膨胀为目标？ Should The Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?
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赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀为目标 Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflation
通货膨胀对社会不仅没有好处，还导致了严重的 真实成本。 Inflation confers no benefit to society, but it impLeabharlann Baiduses several real costs.
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反对：政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济 Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
财政政策的作用也有时滞，因为支配着支出与 税收变更的政治程序相当漫长。 Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes. 从提议、通过到实施财政政策的一个重大变更 可能需要若干年。 It can take years to propose, pass, and implement a major change in fiscal policy.
皮鞋成本 Shoeleather costs 菜单成本 Menu costs 加剧了相对价格的变动 Increased variability of relative prices 税收负担的不经意的变动 Unintended changes in tax liabilities 混乱与不便 Confusion and inconvenience 17 财富的任意再分配 Arbitrary redistribution of wealth
相机抉择的货币政策可能因为无能和权力滥用 而遭到破坏。 Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power. 中央银行家们要是和政治家们沆瀣一气，相机 抉择的政策就可能操纵经济波动以迎合大选日 期——政治经济周期 To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendar – the political business 11 cycle.
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赞成：政策制定者应该试图稳定经济 Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
让社会在经济周期的高涨与低落中受煎熬，是 毫无道理的。 There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle. 货币与财政政策能够稳定总需求，并因而稳定 产出与就业。 Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment.
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1. 货币与财政政策制定者应该 试图稳定经济吗？ Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize the Economy?
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赞成：政策制定者应该试图稳定经济 Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
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宏观经济政策的五个争论问题 Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
4. 政府应该平衡其预算吗？ Should the government balance its budget? 5. 税法应该进行改革以鼓励储蓄吗？ Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?
经济具有内在的不稳定性，放任自流就会导致 经济波动。 The economy is inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate. 应该制定政策来管理总需求，以抵消这一内在 的不稳定性，减少经济波动的严重程度。 Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.
第三十六章
宏观经济政策的五个争论问题 Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
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宏观经济政策的五个争论问题 Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
1. 货币和财政政策应该试图稳定经济吗？ Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy? 2. 货币政策应该按规则制定还是相机抉择？ Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion? 3. 中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？ Should the central bank aim for zero inflation?
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2. 货币政策应该按规则制定还 是相机抉择？ Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by Discretion?
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赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定 Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
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反对：货币政策不应该按规则制定 Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule
所谓决策能力和权力滥用的问题，大都 是妄加猜测。 The alleged problems with discretion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical. 此外，政治周期是否果有其事还远没有 搞清楚。 Also, the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.
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反对：政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济 Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
绝非偶然地，政策制定者在不经意中，不是减 弱而是加剧了经济波动的幅度。 All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations. 政策制定者要是能够消除所有的经济波动，当 然是求之不得的，但这却是一个不现实的目标 It might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal.
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反对：中央银行不应该以零通胀为目标 Con: The central bank should not aim for zero inflation
赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定 Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
政策制定者们总是说一套，做的是另一套——称为 政策的时间不一致性（朝令夕改）。 There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually do – called time inconsistency of policy. 因为政策制定者经常地时间不一致，当中央银行家 们宣布他们试图降低通胀时，人们就会产生怀疑。 Because policymakers are so often time inconsistent, people are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.
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反对：政策制定者不应该试图稳定经济 Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
货币政策影响经济，在需要行动到这些政策发生作用 这段时间，有一个很长的、难以预测的滞后。 Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work. 许多研究表明，货币政策的改变在变化发生六个月后 才能对总需求有所影响。 Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.
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反对：货币政策不应该按规则制定 Con: Monetary policy should not be made by rule
相机决策货币政策的一个重大优势在于其灵活 性。 An important advantage of discretionary monetary policy is its flexibility. 缺乏灵活性的政策将限制政策制定者对经济环 境的变化做出反应的能力。 Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.
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赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定 Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
要求中央银行信守一个温和的、稳定的货币供 给的增长将限制无能、权力滥用与时间不一致 Committing the Fed to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency.