朗文英语听说教程unit 2
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Unit 2 Murphy’s Law
• In 1949 at Edwards Air Force Base, California , The law's namesake was Capt. Ed Murphy, a development engineer from Wright Field Aircraft Lab. Frustration with a strap transducer which was malfunctioning due to an error in wiring the strain gage bridges caused him to remark – "If there is any way to do it wrong, he will" – referring to the technician who had wired the bridges at the Lab.
• What is “life history”?
Байду номын сангаас
• Things are fairly predictable because they follow the basic laws of probability. Weather is an example: the next sunny day is more likely to occur after the seventh day of rain than after the first, because the storm front has what is called a life history. But events with a life history have changing probabilities of certain events occurring over time.
• why toast falls buttered-side down? • The rate of spin is determined by the force of gravity. So the probability that toast has a fifty-fifty chance of landing buttered-side up can be greatly affected by other more fundamental factors, such as the laws of physics.
• why it is so difficult to win when we gamble? • Dice have no memory, no life history. If you roll one dice many times, the number five will come up about 16 percent of the time. The element of arbitrariness makes prediction of the next roll impossible because statisticians who work with probability theory call the rolling a pair of dice a single-event probability, and many of these same statisticians believe that the probability of a single event can’t even be computed mathematically.
• why it always seems like we choose slow lines at the supermarket? • The simple probability that the line next to you will move faster than yours is the one divided by the number of lines. If there are very many lines, the chances that you’ll choose the fastest one is quite low.
• According to Murphy’s Law , anything that can go wrong will go wrong. So we’ll be looking at everyday examples of Murphy’s Law. • why toast falls buttered-side down? • why it always seems like we choose slow lines at the supermarket? • why it is so difficult to win when we gamble?
• In 1949 at Edwards Air Force Base, California , The law's namesake was Capt. Ed Murphy, a development engineer from Wright Field Aircraft Lab. Frustration with a strap transducer which was malfunctioning due to an error in wiring the strain gage bridges caused him to remark – "If there is any way to do it wrong, he will" – referring to the technician who had wired the bridges at the Lab.
• What is “life history”?
Байду номын сангаас
• Things are fairly predictable because they follow the basic laws of probability. Weather is an example: the next sunny day is more likely to occur after the seventh day of rain than after the first, because the storm front has what is called a life history. But events with a life history have changing probabilities of certain events occurring over time.
• why toast falls buttered-side down? • The rate of spin is determined by the force of gravity. So the probability that toast has a fifty-fifty chance of landing buttered-side up can be greatly affected by other more fundamental factors, such as the laws of physics.
• why it is so difficult to win when we gamble? • Dice have no memory, no life history. If you roll one dice many times, the number five will come up about 16 percent of the time. The element of arbitrariness makes prediction of the next roll impossible because statisticians who work with probability theory call the rolling a pair of dice a single-event probability, and many of these same statisticians believe that the probability of a single event can’t even be computed mathematically.
• why it always seems like we choose slow lines at the supermarket? • The simple probability that the line next to you will move faster than yours is the one divided by the number of lines. If there are very many lines, the chances that you’ll choose the fastest one is quite low.
• According to Murphy’s Law , anything that can go wrong will go wrong. So we’ll be looking at everyday examples of Murphy’s Law. • why toast falls buttered-side down? • why it always seems like we choose slow lines at the supermarket? • why it is so difficult to win when we gamble?