计量经济学Report

Introductory Econometrics -----about Chinese tax revenue report

Class: 10-3

Student NO. : 22

English name: Bob

Chinese name: Lu Liqiang

Contents

1.Background-------------------------------------------------page 1

2.Data ----------------------------------------------------page 2

3.Model ----------------------------------------------------page 3

4.T-test ------------------------------------------------------page 4

5.F-test -------------------------------------------------page 5—6

6.Summary -- -----------------------------------------------page 7

7.Appendix --------------------------------------------------page 8

Background

In China, the tax revenue has been popular. We only know how much we need to pay, but we don’t know what influence the tax. In recent years, the tax rate is increasing, as a Chinese, we should know the change about Chinese tax revenue.

What does influence the tax revenue? Maybe many ways. I chose three elements, than I will talk about them, and analyze that how to influence the tax revenue.

In order to study the influence of the main causes of China's tax revenue growth and gross domestic product (GDP), the fiscal expenditure (ED), commodity retail price index (RPI) as the explained variable, the tax income (Y) for multiple linear regression. Collected from the 《China statistical yearbook》2011, 1978-2009 data on various influencing factors.

Chinese tax revenue and the relevant data

Data from：/tjsj/ndsj/

Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+U

Y=tax revenue (亿元)

X1= Retail price index（RPI）/%

X2=Fiscal expenditure（ED）/亿元

X3= Gross Domestic Product（GDP）/亿元

X1, X2，X3 are independent variables.

Y is dependent variables.

Based on the above data, the conclusions as follows, they are β value, stand error R2 freedom SST SSR

0.046341562 0.616276517 56.38728084 -6407.331003

0.01283887 0.062850615 29.44825084 3135.798218

0.996573281 991.5094009 #N/A #N/A

2714.360489 28 #N/A #N/A 8005389224 27526544.98 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

N=32 df=28 R^2=0.9966

The model : Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+U

Y=-6407.33 + 56.39X1+ 0.62X2 + 0.046X3 + U

(29.4483) (0.0629) (0.0128)

N=32 df=28 R^2=0.9966

The model tell us lots of information.

When other factors consistence, 56.39 means the RPI increase 1%, the tax revenue will increase about 56.39 亿元.

The 0.62 means when other factors consistence, the Fiscal Expenditure increase 1, the tax revenue will increase 0.62 亿元.

The 0.046 means when other factors consistence , the GDP increase 1, the tax revenue will increase 0.046 亿元。

T-test:

For example, for a 5% level test and with n-k-1=28 degrees of freedom, the critical value is c=1.701

T-value: t=β/standa rd errors

●T1=56.39/29.4483=1.9149 Null hypothesis H0: β2=0

alternative hypothesis H2: β2>0

We have 28 degrees of freedom, we can use the standard normal critical values. The 5% critical value is 1.701

T3=1.9149>C we reject H0. The t statistic for β2(hat) is statistically significant at the 5% level.

●T2=0.62/0.0629=9.8569 Null hypothesis H0: β2=0 alternative

hypothesis H2: β2>0

We have 28 degrees of freedom, we can use the standard normal critical values. The 5% critical value is 1.701

T2=9.8569>C we reject H0. the t statistic for β2(hat) is statistically significant at the 5% level .