计量经济学Report
- 1、下载文档前请自行甄别文档内容的完整性,平台不提供额外的编辑、内容补充、找答案等附加服务。
- 2、"仅部分预览"的文档,不可在线预览部分如存在完整性等问题,可反馈申请退款(可完整预览的文档不适用该条件!)。
- 3、如文档侵犯您的权益,请联系客服反馈,我们会尽快为您处理(人工客服工作时间:9:00-18:30)。
Introductory Econometrics -----about Chinese tax revenue report
Class: 10-3
Student NO. : 22
English name: Bob
Chinese name: Lu Liqiang
Contents
1.Background-------------------------------------------------page 1
2.Data ----------------------------------------------------page 2
3.Model ----------------------------------------------------page 3
4.T-test ------------------------------------------------------page 4
5.F-test -------------------------------------------------page 5—6
6.Summary -- -----------------------------------------------page 7
7.Appendix --------------------------------------------------page 8
Background
In China, the tax revenue has been popular. We only know how much we need to pay, but we don’t know what influence the tax. In recent years, the tax rate is increasing, as a Chinese, we should know the change about Chinese tax revenue.
What does influence the tax revenue? Maybe many ways. I chose three elements, than I will talk about them, and analyze that how to influence the tax revenue.
In order to study the influence of the main causes of China's tax revenue growth and gross domestic product (GDP), the fiscal expenditure (ED), commodity retail price index (RPI) as the explained variable, the tax income (Y) for multiple linear regression. Collected from the 《China statistical yearbook》2011, 1978-2009 data on various influencing factors.
Chinese tax revenue and the relevant data
Data from:/tjsj/ndsj/
Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+U
Y=tax revenue (亿元)
X1= Retail price index(RPI)/%
X2=Fiscal expenditure(ED)/亿元
X3= Gross Domestic Product(GDP)/亿元
X1, X2,X3 are independent variables.
Y is dependent variables.
Based on the above data, the conclusions as follows, they are β value, stand error R2 freedom SST SSR
0.046341562 0.616276517 56.38728084 -6407.331003
0.01283887 0.062850615 29.44825084 3135.798218
0.996573281 991.5094009 #N/A #N/A
2714.360489 28 #N/A #N/A 8005389224 27526544.98 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
N=32 df=28 R^2=0.9966
The model : Y=β0+β1X1+β2X2+β3X3+U
Y=-6407.33 + 56.39X1+ 0.62X2 + 0.046X3 + U
(29.4483) (0.0629) (0.0128)
N=32 df=28 R^2=0.9966
The model tell us lots of information.
When other factors consistence, 56.39 means the RPI increase 1%, the tax revenue will increase about 56.39 亿元.
The 0.62 means when other factors consistence, the Fiscal Expenditure increase 1, the tax revenue will increase 0.62 亿元.
The 0.046 means when other factors consistence , the GDP increase 1, the tax revenue will increase 0.046 亿元。
T-test:
For example, for a 5% level test and with n-k-1=28 degrees of freedom, the critical value is c=1.701
T-value: t=β/standa rd errors
●T1=56.39/29.4483=1.9149 Null hypothesis H0: β2=0
alternative hypothesis H2: β2>0
We have 28 degrees of freedom, we can use the standard normal critical values. The 5% critical value is 1.701
T3=1.9149>C we reject H0. The t statistic for β2(hat) is statistically significant at the 5% level.
●T2=0.62/0.0629=9.8569 Null hypothesis H0: β2=0 alternative
hypothesis H2: β2>0
We have 28 degrees of freedom, we can use the standard normal critical values. The 5% critical value is 1.701
T2=9.8569>C we reject H0. the t statistic for β2(hat) is statistically significant at the 5% level .