外刊阅读 20200229 比尔盖茨TED上病毒演讲

The next outbreak? We're not ready

下一场疫情什么时候爆发，我们还没有准备好

简介

"Ebola threatens everything that makes us human," says Bruce Aylward of the World Health Organization. And when the Ebola epidemic exploded in 2014, it caused a worldwide panic. But humanity can beat Ebola -- and Aylward shows four strategies that show how we are succeeding. The fight against Ebola is not yet won, he says, but it can be.

世界卫生组织的布鲁斯·艾尔沃德说：“埃博拉病毒威胁着使我们成为人类的一切。”埃博拉疫情在2014年爆发时，引起了世界范围的恐慌。但是人类可以击败埃博拉病毒-艾伦沃德展示了四种策略来展示我们如何取得成功。他说，与埃博拉的斗争尚未获胜，但是可以。

(S1) When I was a kid, the disaster we worried about most was a nuclear war. (S2) That's why we had a barrel like this down in our basement, filled with cans of food and water. (S3) When the nuclear attack came, we were supposed to go downstairs, hunker down, and eat out of that barrel.

解析：

1.第一句和第三句中when引导的时间状语从句。

2.about后面省略that,后接宾语从句。

3.第二句中的why引导的表语从句，此外，filled是过去分词作伴随状语。

我小时候，我们最担心的灾难是核战争。这就是为什么我们地下室有一个这样的桶，里面装满了罐头食品和水。当核攻击来临时，我们应该下楼，蹲下来，从桶里吃东西。

(S1) Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe(灾难) doesn't look like this. (S2) Instead, it looks like this. (S3) If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. (S4) Not missiles, but microbes. (S5) Now, part of the reason for this is that we've invested a huge amount in nuclear deterrents. (S6) But we've actually invested very little in a system to stop an epidemic. (S7) We're not ready for the next epidemic.

解析：

1.第三句中的if引导的条件状语从句。

2.第五句中that引导的表语从句。

今天，全球灾难的最大灾难并不像这样。相反，它看起来像这样。如果在未来几十年里有什么东西杀死了超过1000万人，那很可能是一种高度传染性的病毒，而不是一场战争。不是导弹，而是微生物。现在，部分原因是我们在核威慑方面投入了大量资金。但我们实际上在阻止流行病的系统上投入很少。我们还没准备好迎接下一场流行病。

(S1) Let's look at Ebola. (S2) I'm sure all of you read about it in the newspaper, lots of tough challenges. (S3) I followed it carefully through the case analysis tools we use to track polio eradication. (S4) And as you look at what went on, the problem wasn't that there was a system that didn't work well enough, the problem was that we didn't have a system at all. (S5) In fact, there's some pretty obvious key missing pieces.

解析：

1.第五句是典型的并列复合句：

首先是as引导的时间状语从句，其里面又包括what引导的宾语从句。

其次是这个主句中包含that引导的并列表语从句，第一个that和第三个that 都是表语从句的that引导不作任何成分。

第三是这个主句中的第二that引导的定语从句修饰限定system。

注意：这句话比较复杂，需要好好理解！

让我们看看埃博拉。我相信你们都在报纸上看到过，很多艰难的挑战。我仔细地研究了我们用来追踪根除小儿麻痹症的病例分析工具。当你看看发生了什么，问题不是有一个系统工作得不够好，问题是我们根本没有一个系统。事实上，有一些很明显的关键缺失。

(S1) We didn't have a group of epidemiologists ready to go,who would have gone, seen what the disease was, seen how far it had spread. (S2) The case reports came in on paper. (S3) It was very delayed before they were put online and they were extremely inaccurate. (S4) We didn't have a medical team ready to go. (S5) We didn't have a way of preparing people. (S6) Now, Médecins Sans Frontières did a great job orchestrating volunteers. (S7) But even so, we were far slower than we should have been getting the thousands of workers into these countries. (S8) And a large epidemic would require us to have hundreds of thousands of workers. (S9) There was no one there to look at treatment approaches. (S10) No one to look at the diagnostics. (S11) No one to figure out what tools should be used. (S12) As an example, we could have taken the blood of survivors, processed it, and put that plasma back in people to protect them. (S13) But that was never tried.

解析：

1.第一句中who以引导的非限制定语从句。

2.第一句中的who以引导的非限制定语从句中又包括what 和how引导的宾语从句。

3.第三句中的it was...before引导的时间状语从句。

4.第七句中包含than引导的比较状语从句，且其从句的谓语用should引导的虚拟语气。

5.第九句中包含省略that 引导的no one..从句，作表语从句，而且这与第十句和十一句是并列结构，实际上是三个并列表语从句。

6.第十二句中包含could引导的虚拟语气。

我们没有一组流行病学家准备去，他们会去，看看疾病是什么，看看它传播了多远。案件报告是书面的。在他们被放到网上之前，这是非常延迟的，而且非常不准确。我们还没有一支医疗队准备出发。我们没有办法让人们做好准备。现在，无国界医生组织在组织志愿者方面做得很好。但即便如此，我们还是远远慢于把成千上万的工人带到这些国家的速度。一场大规模的流行病需要我们有成千上万的工人。那里没有人去看治疗方法。没有人看诊断。没有人知道应该使用什么工