Retrospective cohort study回顾性队列研究
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The age of death as the outcome Participants: 1,046 musicians
Number one album in the UK charts 1956— 2007
Setting: UK
Data collecting (Wikipedia): date of birth, date of number one and date of death Statistical analysis
[1]. http://www.epidemiology.ch/history/papers/doll-paper2.pdf
The “27 Club”
Background
What we have already known
• The notion of the “27 club” • Some musicians died at the age of 27 • The rock and roll lifestyle of celebrities
(though mainstream media often fall for the joke).[2]
[1] . Liberman, Mark. 'Tis the season, Language Log, 21 December 2007
[2]. "Santa's a Health Menace? Media Everywhere Are Falling for It—But the Study Was Meant as a Joke". Newsweek blog. 18 December 2009.
Background
Hale Waihona Puke BaiduWhat we didn’t know
• The reasons for these deaths occur at age 27 • The reliability of the “27 club” hypothesis • The association between the age and the risk of death in famous musicians
Background
The steps of our study The age of number one album （排行榜首位的专辑） as the entry
The age of death as the outcome Participants: 1,046 musicians
Number one album in the UK charts 1956— 2007
Is 27 really a dangerous age for famous musicians? Retrospective cohort study
Group Members：
The BMJ
•British Medical Journal (1840) •A weekly peer-reviewed (同行评议) medical journal, •Officially shortened to BMJ in 1988, •Changed to The BMJ in 2014 [1] . In the 2014 Journal Citation Reports, the BMJ's impact factor was 16.378, ranking it fourth among general medical journals. [2]
The BMJ
Journal Content
An advocate of evidencebased medicine (循证医学). Research, Clinical reviews, Recent medical advances Editorial perspectives.
The BMJ
Fig 1 Lexis diagram of musicians with a number one UK album from 1956 to 2007. Each grey line shows a musician’s lifetime, starting at their number one album and ending in their death (points) or censoring in 2011. Rough red line means ages 27
Retrospective Cohort Study
Retrospective cohort study Historic cohort study
Events that already have taken place.[1] Relationships between one phenomenon and another that has occurred in the past.
Setting: UK
Data collecting (Wikipedia): date of birth, date of number one and date of death Statistical analysis
The UK Charts
Background
The steps of our study The age of number one album （排行榜首位的专辑） as the entry
•Better treatments for heroin overdose •The change in the music scene from the hard rock 1970’s to the pop dominated（占主导地 位的）1980’s
Limitations
Our definition of fame was based on a number one album in the UK (clear, specific, and measurable) —the potential to create a biased sample; results may be different for other settings
[1]. "Godlee is made BMJ's first woman editor". Press Gazette. 11 February 2005. Retrieved 2009-08-14.
[2]. 2013 Journal Citation Report Science Edition, Thompson Reuters, 2014.
How Did We Analyze The Data?
Cohort study using survival analysis with age as a time dependent exposure
Comparison
Primarily within musicians
Secondarily relative to the general UK population
Sampling Scheme and Statistical Methods
Data
• Date of birth • Date of number one album • Date of death
Analyse
• Lexis diagram • Survival analysis • R with the Epi and MVNA
What Were The Main Results Of Our Study?
1,046 musicians, 71 deaths (7%). mostly men (899, 86%) median age at first number one album was 26 (inter-quartile range 23 to 30 years) The total follow-up time was 21,750 musician years, 21 years per musician
death rate = number of deaths* 100/number of musicians at risk 0.57 = 3* 100/522
Fig 3 Death rates in the general UK population per 100 person years by age and
these lines start above age 27
ages(years)
The smoothed mean death rate per 100 musician years using a spline with a 95% confidence interval.
522
Fig 2 number of deaths (third from top), and number of musicians at risk (bottom) by age in years. Age 27 is marked in red.
The journal releases a number of “theme issues” every year. Health in Africa, Management of Chronic Diseases, Global Voices on the AIDS Catastrophe. A special "Christmas Edition" [1]
decade of birth (cohort) for ages 18 to 50, and smoothed death rate per 100 musician years. Vertical red line indicates age 27, with no increase in risk. Each cohort’s line ends at the age where no more data are available
Is 27 really a dangerous age for famous musicians? Retrospective cohort study
Key Words:
•27 •Dangerous age •Famous musicians •Retrospective cohort study
Results
1 three deaths at ages 27 amongst 522 musicians ( 0.57 deaths per 100 musician years) 2 ages 25 (0.56) ages 32 (0.54) no peak in risk around age 27 3 the risk of death for musicians between 20s and 30s was two to three times higher than the general UK population
Limitations
We excluded（排除）114 musicians with no recorded date of birth—less famous, our estimated musicians’
death rate may be too high
The death rates were obtained from different sources —the comparison to the general UK population might be prone to（有…的倾向）information bias
Discussion
A cluster of deaths in age 20 to 40 in the 1970’s and early 1980’s No death in this age group in the late 1980’s
Discussion
This difference may be due to:
Number one album in the UK charts 1956— 2007
Setting: UK
Data collecting (Wikipedia): date of birth, date of number one and date of death Statistical analysis
[1]. http://www.epidemiology.ch/history/papers/doll-paper2.pdf
The “27 Club”
Background
What we have already known
• The notion of the “27 club” • Some musicians died at the age of 27 • The rock and roll lifestyle of celebrities
(though mainstream media often fall for the joke).[2]
[1] . Liberman, Mark. 'Tis the season, Language Log, 21 December 2007
[2]. "Santa's a Health Menace? Media Everywhere Are Falling for It—But the Study Was Meant as a Joke". Newsweek blog. 18 December 2009.
Background
Hale Waihona Puke BaiduWhat we didn’t know
• The reasons for these deaths occur at age 27 • The reliability of the “27 club” hypothesis • The association between the age and the risk of death in famous musicians
Background
The steps of our study The age of number one album （排行榜首位的专辑） as the entry
The age of death as the outcome Participants: 1,046 musicians
Number one album in the UK charts 1956— 2007
Is 27 really a dangerous age for famous musicians? Retrospective cohort study
Group Members：
The BMJ
•British Medical Journal (1840) •A weekly peer-reviewed (同行评议) medical journal, •Officially shortened to BMJ in 1988, •Changed to The BMJ in 2014 [1] . In the 2014 Journal Citation Reports, the BMJ's impact factor was 16.378, ranking it fourth among general medical journals. [2]
The BMJ
Journal Content
An advocate of evidencebased medicine (循证医学). Research, Clinical reviews, Recent medical advances Editorial perspectives.
The BMJ
Fig 1 Lexis diagram of musicians with a number one UK album from 1956 to 2007. Each grey line shows a musician’s lifetime, starting at their number one album and ending in their death (points) or censoring in 2011. Rough red line means ages 27
Retrospective Cohort Study
Retrospective cohort study Historic cohort study
Events that already have taken place.[1] Relationships between one phenomenon and another that has occurred in the past.
Setting: UK
Data collecting (Wikipedia): date of birth, date of number one and date of death Statistical analysis
The UK Charts
Background
The steps of our study The age of number one album （排行榜首位的专辑） as the entry
•Better treatments for heroin overdose •The change in the music scene from the hard rock 1970’s to the pop dominated（占主导地 位的）1980’s
Limitations
Our definition of fame was based on a number one album in the UK (clear, specific, and measurable) —the potential to create a biased sample; results may be different for other settings
[1]. "Godlee is made BMJ's first woman editor". Press Gazette. 11 February 2005. Retrieved 2009-08-14.
[2]. 2013 Journal Citation Report Science Edition, Thompson Reuters, 2014.
How Did We Analyze The Data?
Cohort study using survival analysis with age as a time dependent exposure
Comparison
Primarily within musicians
Secondarily relative to the general UK population
Sampling Scheme and Statistical Methods
Data
• Date of birth • Date of number one album • Date of death
Analyse
• Lexis diagram • Survival analysis • R with the Epi and MVNA
What Were The Main Results Of Our Study?
1,046 musicians, 71 deaths (7%). mostly men (899, 86%) median age at first number one album was 26 (inter-quartile range 23 to 30 years) The total follow-up time was 21,750 musician years, 21 years per musician
death rate = number of deaths* 100/number of musicians at risk 0.57 = 3* 100/522
Fig 3 Death rates in the general UK population per 100 person years by age and
these lines start above age 27
ages(years)
The smoothed mean death rate per 100 musician years using a spline with a 95% confidence interval.
522
Fig 2 number of deaths (third from top), and number of musicians at risk (bottom) by age in years. Age 27 is marked in red.
The journal releases a number of “theme issues” every year. Health in Africa, Management of Chronic Diseases, Global Voices on the AIDS Catastrophe. A special "Christmas Edition" [1]
decade of birth (cohort) for ages 18 to 50, and smoothed death rate per 100 musician years. Vertical red line indicates age 27, with no increase in risk. Each cohort’s line ends at the age where no more data are available
Is 27 really a dangerous age for famous musicians? Retrospective cohort study
Key Words:
•27 •Dangerous age •Famous musicians •Retrospective cohort study
Results
1 three deaths at ages 27 amongst 522 musicians ( 0.57 deaths per 100 musician years) 2 ages 25 (0.56) ages 32 (0.54) no peak in risk around age 27 3 the risk of death for musicians between 20s and 30s was two to three times higher than the general UK population
Limitations
We excluded（排除）114 musicians with no recorded date of birth—less famous, our estimated musicians’
death rate may be too high
The death rates were obtained from different sources —the comparison to the general UK population might be prone to（有…的倾向）information bias
Discussion
A cluster of deaths in age 20 to 40 in the 1970’s and early 1980’s No death in this age group in the late 1980’s
Discussion
This difference may be due to: