宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)
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宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(PPT 66页)
• Nigeria, Iraq, Pakistan, and the Congo are projected to have population growth rates greater than 2% per year over the next generation
Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015
Premodern Economic “Growth”
• Thomas R. Malthus
• first academic professor of economics • introduced the idea that increases in technology inevitably
run into natural resource scarcity
The Demographic Transition
• As material standards of living rise far above subsistence, countries undergo a demographic transition
• birth rates rise • death rates fall • birth rates fall
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Growth slowed slightly during the Great Depression and World War II
• 1.4 percent per year from 1929 to 1950
• Growth accelerated from 1950 to 1973
Figure 5.3 - Expected Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015
Premodern Economic “Growth”
• Thomas R. Malthus
• first academic professor of economics • introduced the idea that increases in technology inevitably
run into natural resource scarcity
The Demographic Transition
• As material standards of living rise far above subsistence, countries undergo a demographic transition
• birth rates rise • death rates fall • birth rates fall
American Long-Run Growth, 1800-1973
• Growth slowed slightly during the Great Depression and World War II
• 1.4 percent per year from 1929 to 1950
• Growth accelerated from 1950 to 1973
宏观经济管理学及财务知识分析范文英文版41页PPT
• Will inflation make us poor by destroying our savings or rich by eliminating our debts?
2
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– counts economic activity that happens in the United States (domestic)
– represents the production of final goods
and services (product)
17
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3
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Macroeconomists...
• try to figure out why overall economic activity rises and falls
11
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Figure 1.3 - The American Business Cycle: Fluctuations in Total Production Relative to the
– focus on how competitive markets allocate resources to create consumer and producer surplus
2
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– counts economic activity that happens in the United States (domestic)
– represents the production of final goods
and services (product)
17
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Macroeconomists...
• try to figure out why overall economic activity rises and falls
11
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 1.3 - The American Business Cycle: Fluctuations in Total Production Relative to the
– focus on how competitive markets allocate resources to create consumer and producer surplus
宏观经济学及财务知识分析
CHAPTER 13
Stabilization Policy
1
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• What principles should guide stabilization policy?
• What aspects of stabilization policy do economists argue about today?
• Is monetary policy or fiscal policy more effective as a stabilization policy?
– the time between when a policy proposal is made and when it becomes effective (the inside lag) can take years
– the inside lag associated with monetary policy changes can be measured in days or weeks
– in a contractionary open-market operation, the Federal Reserve sells government bonds, decreasing bank reserves, and raising interest rates
10
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
6
Stabilization Policy
1
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• What principles should guide stabilization policy?
• What aspects of stabilization policy do economists argue about today?
• Is monetary policy or fiscal policy more effective as a stabilization policy?
– the time between when a policy proposal is made and when it becomes effective (the inside lag) can take years
– the inside lag associated with monetary policy changes can be measured in days or weeks
– in a contractionary open-market operation, the Federal Reserve sells government bonds, decreasing bank reserves, and raising interest rates
10
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
6
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(PPT 48页)
Figure 8.2 - Coincidence of Wants
8-9
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Usefulness of Money
• Money also serves as a unit of account
• Without money, market transactions would have to be performed through barter
• In a barter economy, market exchange would require the coincidence of wants
• (P Y) represents the total nominal flow of spending
• M is the quantity of money
• V is a measure of how fast money moves through the economy
– how many times the average unit of money is used to buy a final good or service
– you would have to have some good or service that someone wants and he or she would have to have some good or service that you want
8-8
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宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析规范(ppt 28页)
• Equilibrium price level is P0 • Observed price level in the economy at particular point in time
AS, AD, and Equilibrium
• Shifts in either the AS or AD schedule results in a change in the equilibrium level of prices and output
• The growth theory models described in earlier chapters explain the level of Y* in a particular period
• Y* is “exogenous with respect to the price level”
[Insert ly Curve
• The classical supply curve is vertical, indicating that the same amount of goods will be supplied, regardless of price [Figure 5-4 (b)]
• Natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment arising from normal labor market frictions that exist when the labor market is in equilibrium
Long run version of the AS curve
[Insert Figure 5-4 here]
Classical Supply Curve
AS, AD, and Equilibrium
• Shifts in either the AS or AD schedule results in a change in the equilibrium level of prices and output
• The growth theory models described in earlier chapters explain the level of Y* in a particular period
• Y* is “exogenous with respect to the price level”
[Insert ly Curve
• The classical supply curve is vertical, indicating that the same amount of goods will be supplied, regardless of price [Figure 5-4 (b)]
• Natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment arising from normal labor market frictions that exist when the labor market is in equilibrium
Long run version of the AS curve
[Insert Figure 5-4 here]
Classical Supply Curve
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析规划英文版egqx
Figure 11.4 - The IS-LM Diagram
17
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IS-LM Equilibrium
• Example (assume that is constant at 3%)
11
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Figure 11.2 - Money Demand Varies as Total Income Y Varies
12
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– money demand is proportional to total nominal income (PY)
– money demand has a time trend, the result of slow changes in the banking sector structure and technology
of money demanded is equal to the
money supply
10
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The LM Curve
• Because the demand for money depends on the level of real GDP, if the money stock is constant, the equilibrium nominal interest rate will vary whenever real GDP varies
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(ppt 64页)
– full-employment analysis
6-4
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Flexible-Price Model
• Two sets of factors determine the levels of potential output and real wages
CHAPTER 6
Building Blocks of the Flexible-Price Model
6-1
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Questions
• What is a full-employment analysis? • What keeps the economy at full
The Labor Market
• The marginal product of labor is the difference between what the firm can produce with its current labor force (Lfirm) and what it could produce if it hired one more worker
6-2
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Questions
• What determines the level of net exports?
6-4
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Flexible-Price Model
• Two sets of factors determine the levels of potential output and real wages
CHAPTER 6
Building Blocks of the Flexible-Price Model
6-1
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• What is a full-employment analysis? • What keeps the economy at full
The Labor Market
• The marginal product of labor is the difference between what the firm can produce with its current labor force (Lfirm) and what it could produce if it hired one more worker
6-2
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• What determines the level of net exports?
宏观经济管理学及财务知识分析范文(英文版)(ppt 40页)
• National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)
1-16
– reported by the U.S. Commerce
Department’s Bureau of Economic
Analysis
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– counts economic activity that happens in the United States (domestic)
1-18
– represents the production of final goods and services (product)
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Civic Responsibility
– more informed voting
– more responsible macroeconomic policy
1-9
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Macroeconomics...
• is the subdiscipline of economics that tries to answer these six questions
• is the branch of economics related to the economy as a whole
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(ppt 64页)
potential output
6-8
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Flexible-Price Model
• The flexible-price assumption is not always a good one
firm
6-18
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Figure 6.2 - The Firm’s Output as a Function of the Firm’s Employment
6-16
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The Labor Market
The Production Function
• Potential output (Y*) is determined by
– the size of the labor force (L) – the economy’s capital stock (K) – the efficiency of labor (E) – a parameter indicating how quickly
The Labor Market
• Therefore, the marginal product of labor (MPL) must be equal to
M P FL ( L fi1 r 1 m ,F )L ( fi1 ) rm
6-8
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Flexible-Price Model
• The flexible-price assumption is not always a good one
firm
6-18
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 6.2 - The Firm’s Output as a Function of the Firm’s Employment
6-16
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Labor Market
The Production Function
• Potential output (Y*) is determined by
– the size of the labor force (L) – the economy’s capital stock (K) – the efficiency of labor (E) – a parameter indicating how quickly
The Labor Market
• Therefore, the marginal product of labor (MPL) must be equal to
M P FL ( L fi1 r 1 m ,F )L ( fi1 ) rm
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析(英文版)(PPT 48页)
The Usefulness of Money
• Money also serves as a unit of account
• money is used as a yardstick to measure value or quote prices
• Anything that alters the real value of money in terms of its purchasing power will also alter the real terms of existing contracts that use the money as a unit of account
• money is “neutral”
• This is a special feature of the full-employment flexible-price model
Money
• is wealth that is held in a readily-spendable form • is made up of
The Money Stock
• To reduce the monetary base, the Federal Reserve sells short-term government securities
• To increase the monetary base, the Federal Reserve buys short-term government securities
The Demand for Money
• Businesses and households have a demand for money
• they want to hold a certain amount of wealth in the form of readily-spendable purchasing power to carry out transactions
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析3
Figure 15.2 - Growth of the Gold Standard
15-5
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The Gold Standard
• When two countries were on the gold standard, their nominal exchange rate was fixed at the ratio of their gold parities
– the currency was convertible
• could be converted into gold freely
– the currency’s price in terms of gold was its parity
15-4
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– the pound trades for $2.64 (10% higher than the ratio of the gold parities $2.40)
15-7
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CHAPTER 15
International Economic Policy
15-1
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经济管理学及财务知识分析人双语版
The business of polo马球业Cloney ponies克隆赛马How technology could transform an ancient sport技术如何改变一项古老运动Jan 5th 2013 | BUENOS AIRES | from the print editionIMAGINE a football match pitting 11 clones of Wayne Rooney against 11 more clones of the same spud-faced Manchester United striker. Even avid Wayne-watchers might find it a bit dull. But polo fans may one day be treated to something similar. No one is proposing to clone the stallions who wield the mallets, of course. But the stallions they sit on are another matter. Outstanding polo horses are hard to find and horribly expensive. Each world-class rider may have dozens, the best of which may cost more than $200,000 each.设想一场足球比赛，11位韦恩•鲁尼（Wayne Rooney）的克隆人对阵另外11位与这位曼联前锋长着同一张土豆脸的克隆人，就算韦恩的狂热观众也会觉得有点无趣。
但有朝一日，马球迷会遇到类似的事。
当然，无人建议克隆那些挥动长柄球棍、像种马一般健美的男子。
不过，他们胯下的种马则另当别论了。
宏观经济政策管理与财务知识分析(PPT 32页)
•
13、有志者自有千方百计，无志者只 有千难 万难。
•
14、贫不足羞，可羞是贫而无志。— —吕坤
•
15、人，只要有一种信念，有所追求 ，什么 艰苦都 能忍受 ，什么 环境也 都能适 应。— —丁玲
•
16、人生的途程是遥远的，只要双脚 不息地 前行， 道路就 会向远 方延伸 。
•
17、理想是人生的坚实支柱，如果失 去了生 活的理 想，精 神也就 会随之 而瘫痪 。
内容安排（Contents）
一般效应
财政政策效应
影响因素 挤出效应（Crowding out
货币政策效应
effect)
两种特例（Keynes‘trap and Classical case）
两种政策的共同作用
第一节 财政政策效应
The effect of the fiscal policy
二、财政政策效应的影响因素
A、财政政策效应因IS斜率而异（挤出效应 的差异所致,主要分析d）
LM
IS 平坦
陡峭
IS曲线/斜率/小，效应小 IS曲线/斜率/大，效应大
To be continued
B、财政政策效应因LM斜率而异
（△L1=△L2,主要分析h）
平坦
陡峭
LM曲线斜率小，效应大 LM曲线斜率大，效应小
•
18、目标不是都能达到的，但它可以 作为瞄 准点。
•
28、我学习了一生，现在我还在学习 ，而将 来，只 要我还 有精力 ，我还 要学习 下去。 ——别 林斯基
•
29、任何时候我也不会满足，越 是读书 ，就越 是深刻 的感到 不满足 ，越是 感到自 己的知 识贫乏 。—— 马克思
宏观经济管理学及财务知识分析数据(ppt 40页)
THE COMPONENTS OF GDP
• What Is Not Counted in GDP?
• GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home and that never enter the marketplace.
Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP 实际与名义GDP
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP 实际与名义GDP
Copyright©2004 South-Western
Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP 实际与名义GDP
某个买者的1美元支出就是某个卖者的1美元收入
The Measurement of GDP GDP的衡量
GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a
country in a given period of time. GDP 是在某一既定时期一个国家内生
• “. . . In a Given Period of Time.” “…在某一既定时期内…”
• It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months). 它衡量某一既定时期内进行的生产的价值，通常这个时期是一年和一个季度 （三个月）。
对一个整体经济而言，收入必定等于支出，因为：
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析规划(英文版)(ppt 78页)
rate
The Demand for Money
• Money demand is inversely related to the nominal interest rate (i=r+) because the nominal interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money
Figure 11.5 - IS-LM Equilibrium Example
IS Shocks
• Any change in economic policy or the economic environment that increases autonomous spending shifts the IS curve to the right
• businesses and households are holding larger money balances than they want so they deposit them at the bank
• banks want to increase loans and thus respond by lowering interest rates
Money Market Equilibrium
• In a sticky-price model, the price level is predetermined
• it cannot move instantly to make money supply equal to money demand
The LM Curve
• Because the demand for money depends on the level of real GDP, if the money stock is constant, the equilibrium nominal interest rate will vary whenever real GDP varies
The Demand for Money
• Money demand is inversely related to the nominal interest rate (i=r+) because the nominal interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money
Figure 11.5 - IS-LM Equilibrium Example
IS Shocks
• Any change in economic policy or the economic environment that increases autonomous spending shifts the IS curve to the right
• businesses and households are holding larger money balances than they want so they deposit them at the bank
• banks want to increase loans and thus respond by lowering interest rates
Money Market Equilibrium
• In a sticky-price model, the price level is predetermined
• it cannot move instantly to make money supply equal to money demand
The LM Curve
• Because the demand for money depends on the level of real GDP, if the money stock is constant, the equilibrium nominal interest rate will vary whenever real GDP varies
宏观经济管理学与财务知识分析规划(英文版)(ppt 78页)
Money Market Equilibrium
• If money supply < money demand
– businesses and households want to hold larger money balances and try to borrow to increase their cash holdings
• Money demand is inversely related to the nominal interest rate (i=r+) because the nominal interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money
– money balances lose purchasing power at the rate of inflation ()
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 11.3 - From Money Demand to the LM Curve
11-15
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• In a sticky-price model, the price level is predetermined
– it cannot move instantly to make money supply equal to money demand
• The nominal interest rate must adjust to keep the money market in equilibrium
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– money is “neutral”
• This is a special feature of the fullemployment flexible-price model
6
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Money
• is wealth that is held in a readilyspendable form
• is made up of
– coin and currency – checking account balances – other assets that can be turned into cash
or demand deposits nearly instantaneously, without risk or cost
7
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Usefulness of Money
Figure 8.3 - Reasons for and Opportunity Cost of Holding Money
12
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Quantity Theory of Money
• they will cut back on purchases
– sellers will note demand is weak and lower prices
17
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• The Classical dichotomy implies that real variables (real GDP, real investment spending, or the real exchange rate) can be analyzed and calculated without considering nominal variables (price level)
• a higher level of spending means a larger money demand
• There is a cost of holding money
– cash and checking deposits earn little or
no interest
11
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Without money, market transactions would have to be performed through barter
• In a barter economy, market exchange would require the coincidence of wants
– the money supply is determined by the central bank
P V M Y
16
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Determining the Price Level
2
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• Why would a government ever generate “hyperinflation”?
• What determines the level of money demand?
CHAPTER 8
Money, Prices, and Inflation
1
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• What do economists mean by “money”?
• assumes that the only important determinant of the demand for money is the flow of spending
• can be summarized using
– the Cambridge money-demand function
Determining the Price Level
P V M Y
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
• If the price level is lower than the quantity equation predicts
– households and businesses will have more wealth in the form of money than they wish
Figure 8.2 - Coincidence of Wants
9
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Usefulness of Money
• Money also serves as a unit of account
• they will increase purchases
– sellers will note demand is strong and raise prices
18
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
14
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 8.4 - The Velocity of Money
15
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Why is money useful? • What do economists mean when they
say that money is a unit of account? • What determines the price level and
the inflation rate?
10
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Demand for Money
• Businesses and households have a demand for money
– they want to hold a certain amount of wealth in the form of readily-spendable purchasing power to carry out transactions
• (P Y) represents the total nominal flow of spending
• M is the quantity of money
• V is a measure of how fast money moves through the economy
– how many times the average unit of money is used to buy a final good or service
• avoiding a repeat of the inflation of the 1970s remains a major goal of economic policy
4
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• What determines the level of the money supply?
• Why is inflation seen as something to be avoided?
3
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 8.1 - Post-World War II Inflation in the United States, 1951-2000
5
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Flexible-Price Model
P V M Y
• If the price level is higher than the quantity equation predicts
– households and businesses will have less wealth in the form of money than they wish
• This is a special feature of the fullemployment flexible-price model
6
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Money
• is wealth that is held in a readilyspendable form
• is made up of
– coin and currency – checking account balances – other assets that can be turned into cash
or demand deposits nearly instantaneously, without risk or cost
7
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Usefulness of Money
Figure 8.3 - Reasons for and Opportunity Cost of Holding Money
12
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Quantity Theory of Money
• they will cut back on purchases
– sellers will note demand is weak and lower prices
17
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• The Classical dichotomy implies that real variables (real GDP, real investment spending, or the real exchange rate) can be analyzed and calculated without considering nominal variables (price level)
• a higher level of spending means a larger money demand
• There is a cost of holding money
– cash and checking deposits earn little or
no interest
11
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Without money, market transactions would have to be performed through barter
• In a barter economy, market exchange would require the coincidence of wants
– the money supply is determined by the central bank
P V M Y
16
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Determining the Price Level
2
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• Why would a government ever generate “hyperinflation”?
• What determines the level of money demand?
CHAPTER 8
Money, Prices, and Inflation
1
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions
• What do economists mean by “money”?
• assumes that the only important determinant of the demand for money is the flow of spending
• can be summarized using
– the Cambridge money-demand function
Determining the Price Level
P V M Y
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
• If the price level is lower than the quantity equation predicts
– households and businesses will have more wealth in the form of money than they wish
Figure 8.2 - Coincidence of Wants
9
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Usefulness of Money
• Money also serves as a unit of account
• they will increase purchases
– sellers will note demand is strong and raise prices
18
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
14
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 8.4 - The Velocity of Money
15
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Why is money useful? • What do economists mean when they
say that money is a unit of account? • What determines the price level and
the inflation rate?
10
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Demand for Money
• Businesses and households have a demand for money
– they want to hold a certain amount of wealth in the form of readily-spendable purchasing power to carry out transactions
• (P Y) represents the total nominal flow of spending
• M is the quantity of money
• V is a measure of how fast money moves through the economy
– how many times the average unit of money is used to buy a final good or service
• avoiding a repeat of the inflation of the 1970s remains a major goal of economic policy
4
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
• What determines the level of the money supply?
• Why is inflation seen as something to be avoided?
3
Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Figure 8.1 - Post-World War II Inflation in the United States, 1951-2000
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Copyright © 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Flexible-Price Model
P V M Y
• If the price level is higher than the quantity equation predicts
– households and businesses will have less wealth in the form of money than they wish