国际贸易理论外文翻译文献
国际贸易 经济 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式
Trade liberalization and patterns of strategicadjustment in the US textiles and clothing industryBelay SeyoumU.S.A.International Business Review，Issue 16 ,2007Belay SeyoumNova Southeastern University, 3301 College Avenue, Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33314, USA Received 2 December 2005; received in revised form 17 April 2006, 11 October 2006, 23 November 2006; accepted13 December 2006The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense competition in export and domestic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization (Standbury & Vertinksy, 2004).In spite of the substantial job losses, the US TC industry remains technologically advanced partly due to increased productivity resulting from advances in technology and design capabilities. Textile production is capital intensive and modern technology is essential to meet the increasing for high-quality products. Over the last few years, US textiles and apparel firms have substantially increased their investment to maintain modern manufacturing facilities as well as improve production and marketing capabilities in order to maximize their inherent advantages to market proximity. In apparel, low skill production jobs have moved to low-cost locations offshore while the more skilled ones have been retained. To successfully adapt to the new environment, US TC industries need to capitalize on their sources of competitive advantage. They need to develop a more flexible operational arrangement, meet high standards in product innovation and generally develop a more change-seeking business culture (Kilduff, 2005).An important survival tool for US TC firms is to expand their potential market by offering new product designs and product categories. Manufacturers must try to bring a steady stream of products to market that are in line with the taste, preferences of theconsumer. They can also expand their market potential by offering new product categories. Two of the fastest growing apparel segments in the US, for example, have been the women’s plus and men’s big and tall segments (Driscoll, 2004). Plus-size apparel marketing was estimated at $47 billion in 2005 accounting for 20% of total apparel market. It is important to identify the firm’s target customers and assess whether the firm is successfully addressing their needs.US TC firms should target a narrow segment of the market that provides the best opportunity for success. In textiles, the focus should be on a few specialized segments such as carpets, nonwovens and technical textiles. Similarly, apparel producers should increase their focus on core products, reduce vertical integration to shed overhead costs, and establish alliances with other firms to consolidate resources and increase market share.Finally, in view of rising incomes and high growth rates in many developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, there are potential export market opportunities for US textile and apparel products. US export interests may be served by seeking improved access to the retail distribution systems of developing countries. US textile firms should also be able to use Mexico to export to the European Union and other countries, taking advantage of the Mexico-EU trade agreement. Since the conclusion of NAFTA, a number of Asian and European firms have produced certain products in Mexico in order to export to the US market.This paper suggests a demand pull model as a basis for developing a network structure in the clothing industry. In a demand pull model, consumer demand is the driver of sales unlike the supply push model whereby the manufacturer pushes goods to the retailer regardless of consumer demand.Retail companies have become powerful due to their sufficient capital and marketing expertise to build loyalty among consumers. They are the lead firm in view of their central role in the organizational network. The lead clothing retailer integrates industrial capabilities such as sourcing of textiles, design, product branding and its relations with consumers enables it to keep abreast of fashion consumption trends.The lead firm conveys its requirements to these changing trends (changes in style, material requirements) to its suppliers or subcontractors (Table 7). It also provides assistance with the purchasing of capital equipment and technology necessary to produce apparel in accordance with market demand. The fragmented webs of suppliers and subcontractors are bound together through information technology, online data sharing, joint product development, and collaborative forecasting, planning and replenishment activities. Retailers will hold less inventory as shipments become smaller and more frequent since point of sale data is directly transmitted to the manufacturer/supplier who will produce and ship garments as it is needed. This model shows the role of the retailer as an intermediary integrating the functions of design, textile sourcing, branding and as facilitator of apparel production through a web of suppliers/subcontractors. Such restructuring through technological improvements and information technology is one means of succeeding in an increasingly competitive environment. The horizontally structured, mass production methods no longer ensure future competitiveness.The lion’s share of the benefits from quota elimination is expec ted to accrue to China. Its low labor cost, high productivity, range and flexibility of services as well as efficient supplier networks will make China the supplier of choice. About 87% of apparelexecutives that participated in a cotton sourcing summit in Miami in February 2004, agreed that China will soon account for 50–90% of all apparel sold in the US market (National Labor Committee, 2004). This means rationalization of production and a massive consolidation of vendors. Other winners are likely to include India and Pakistan in narrow segments of the TC industry. The elimination of quotas is also likely to lead to lower prices for consumers in view of the absence of quota costs which is often a significant part of the cost of TC sold in the US market. Well-known brands may still hold market value since they are not subject to retail price deflation. It is important for TC firms to evaluate their internal capabilities such as sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, transportation etc. in order to develop an action plan for the post-quota world.Exporters from Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean are likely to lose market share to China since they largely compete on price (not quality) and lack the capability to produce high value added products. Even with the introduction of safeguards on a range of products that are of export interest to these countries, their US market share has declined since the phase out of quotas. With the complete removal of quotas in 2008, it is difficult for these countries to compete on price. Since the US government lifted quotas in 2002 on 29 categories, for example, China’s market share (in these categories) jumped from just 9% (2002) to 65% (2003) while prices paid by US retailers (for apparel from China) dropped by 48% (National Labor Committee, 2004). In cotton dressing gowns (quotas removed) China’s share in 2003 jumped from 25% to 39% while that of Caribbean countries fell from 13% to a mere 3%. In the first 12 months after the phase out of quotas, China’s market share in apparel rose by 59% in value while that of many Central and South American countries showed a sharp decline.What are the implications for TC firms in countries that are vulnerable to competition from China? First, they should capitalize on their proximity to the US market. Their ability to offer lower transport cost, lower lead times as well as duty free entry to the US market may attract the fashion-oriented segment of the US industry. This will depend on access to good local transport infrastructure to get goods to market as well as advanced telecommunications systems to link suppliers and customers. Local firms and governments need to collaborate in creating a climate which is conducive to business and to develop infrastructure to attract and retain TC industries that are so vital in generating exports and employment.Secondly, low wages do not necessarily provide a comparative advantage with respect to China. Firms should develop new capabilities in areas in which China does not have a comparative advantage (yarn, and silk non-apparel). This requires, inter alia, investment in modern production methods and development of competitive sources of local raw materials. Even in product areas in which China is expanding its exports, developing country suppliers that enhance their skills, technology, supply chains and marketing capabilities (through joint ventures, licensing arrangements) faster than China can still maintain their shares to the US market.Thirdly, an important strategic consideration that limits the competitive impact of China is the need on the part of multinationals to diversify their risk portfolios. US manufacturers and retailers are likely to adopt a diversified risk adjusted sourcing strategy that balances cost, speed to market as well as political and economic stability. They may not be prepared to rely on China for critical inputs beyond a certain threshold of risk. Furthermore, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean could be attractive options for US companies in some fashion sensitive segments of the industry where quick response or fast turnaround is important.Finally, existing US rules of origin requirements to qualify for free access to the US market have had unintended consequences. One of the requirements is that they have to use US yarn and fabric. This has had the effect of making their exports less competitive. The US may have to modify its rules of origin to allow developing countries to import from Asia or other competitive sources without losing their preferential status.美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式贝蕾·塞尤姆美国国际商务评论，第16期,2007年贝蕾·塞尤姆诺娃东南大学，学院大道3301，劳德代尔堡，佛罗里达33314，美国2005年12月2日收到稿件；分别于2006年4月17日、2006年10月11日和2006年11月23日收到修改稿件；2006年12月13日正式录用美国纺织品和服装行业面临的是一个市场条件快速变化、科技不断创新的环境。
国际服务贸易外文文献翻译
国际服务贸易外文翻译文献(含：英文原文及中文译文)文献出处：《World Development》，2015，12（1）：35-44.英文原文The research of international service trade and economic growth theoryChakraborty Kavin1 IntroductionThe study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GA TS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.For the proposition of that "International service trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although service tradeis not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater than that of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affectseconomic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export.According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned channels will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the roles can be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in hand through numerous feedback chain.Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages.Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved.As the characteristics of the world's service-oriented economy have gradually emerged, service trade originating from the upgrading of industrial structure has developed rapidly, and the scale of service trade is rapidly expanding. From the statistical data, the total exports of world service trade rose rapidly from 365 billion U.S. dollars in 1980 to 377.779 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, an increase of 9.35 times. Compared with the trade of goods with a long history, service trade is a new form of trade. With the continuous increase in absolute size and relatively low levels, service trade has become a focus of attention in modern society.2 The impact of overall service trade on economic growthAccording to the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GA TS), which was signed in 1994, trade in services includes Cross- border Supply, Consumption A broad, Commercial Presence, and naturalperson mobility. (Movement of Natural Persn) Four modes. The service trade of these four modes has completely different properties and characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult to establish a unified theoretical framework for service trade to affect economic growth. The corresponding literature is very rare. The only foreign documents are mainly Robinson et al. (2002), who simply regard service trade as a commodity. Trade, without taking into account differences in the four trade models, studied the economic growth effects of service trade liberalization using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.Using empirical methods to study the literature on the impact of overall service trade on economic growth is more, but such studies are mostly domestic scholars. Research shows that the average contribution of China's overall service trade to economic growth is 18.9%.3 Effect of Service Trade in Different Industries on Economic GrowthAt present, the literature on the impact of industry trade in service trade on economic growth is mostly concentrated in such service sectors as finance, telecommunications, and health care. These studies have basically reached a relatively unanimous conclusion that the opening of the service sector or the increase in productivity can significantly promote economic growth. . For example, studies by Beck et al. (1998), M urinde & Ryan (2003), and Eschenbach (2004) suggest that the opening of the financial sector has, to a certain extent, broken the monopoly of domesticfinancial markets and prompted the orderly competition of financial markets. On the normal development track, productivity has improved, and it has finally led to economic growth in the country. Kim (2000) studied the relationship between the development of service trade in the distribution sector and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using Korea's input-output data. The results show that the liberalization of service trade not only significantly promoted its own TFP. The promotion also promoted the improvement of total factor productivity in the related manufacturing sector. The total factor productivity growth brought about by service trade almost covered the entire economic sector.4 Effect of Service Trade on Economic Growth by Different Trading ModesThere are few literatures on specific transaction models and theoretical studies on the impact of trade in services on economic growth. Carr et al. (2001) & M arkusen et al. (2005) theoretically examined the commercial existence model by means of the CGE model. The impact of the trade in services on economic growth shows that the opening up of trade in services is an important source of the increase in economic welfare of a country. From the perspective of economic welfare, the opening up of trade in services is a general trend. Subsequently, the use of CGE models to theoretically examine the impact of service trade on economic growth began to prevail. For example, Rutherford et al. (2005)used the CGE model to evaluate Russia's WTO accession effects, and Ko nan &Maskus (2006) used CGE models. The potential effects of Tunisia's elimination of barriers to trade in services were studied. Their conclusions indicate that the increase in the level of economic welfare in one country can benefit from the opening up of the service market, while the elimination of FDI market access barriers in the service sector is a pattern of four trades. The most important liberalization measures are the main sources of increased welfare in a country. There are a lot of literatures on the relationship between service trade and economic growth in specific models using empirical methods. In the four modes of trade in services, commercial presence is the most important one, and from the point of view of data availability, although statistical data is still not very accurate, commercial existence of service trade is based on service industry FDI as a carrier. To achieve this, researchers can use service industry FDI data to characterize the scale of service trade in this model, and this type of trade model has received more attention. Among them, Markusen (1989) believes that the existence of commercial trade in services has two positive and negative effects. The positive effect is that competition in the service sector has led to an increase in domestic demand for the sector’s production factors, which is conducive to output growth. The effect of market size and negative effects means that the intensified competition in the domestic market of service industries has led to the withdrawal ofdomestic service-oriented enterprises from the market. The study by Markusen (1989) shows that the effect of market size after the opening of the service market far exceeds the crowding-out effect. After offsetting the crowding-out effect, it can still promote the productivity improvement of the non-service sector and further lead to the structure of domestic trade in goods. The changes, those sectors that were previously low in productivity and dependent on imports, will evolve into high-productivity export sectors, which is quite similar to the latest research findings on the interactive development of producer services and manufacturing. Hoekman (2006) and Hoekman (2006) used India as an example to examine the impact of the existence of commercial trade in services in the finance, telecommunications, and transportation sectors on the competitiveness of the goods export sector, and believe that these sectors have been liberalized. The level of soft facilities has been increased, which in turn has greatly reduced the operating costs of the downstream product manufacturing sector, which has increased the export competitiveness. With the inefficiency of the domestic service industry, the unfavorable pattern is reversed with the help of commercial presence of service trade. Feasible choice. Guerrieri et al. (2005) took the EU as the research object and analyzed the role of commercial trade in services for knowledge accumulation and economic growth. The study concluded that the openness of the service market or the relaxation of domesticservice regulations has positively promoted economic growth. It was found that the imported service items may be more able to promote economic growth than the domestic same service items due to high technological content.5 Possible Future Research DirectionsIt is not difficult to find from the above-mentioned documents that since the development of service trade started late, research on the growth of service trade began to rise gradually from the 1980s, and more than 20 years of research in this area is in the ascendant. With the further enhancement of the status of trade in services, the possible directions for future research will generally include the following aspects.From the point of view of research methodology, classification of service trade can be studied. As the theory of goods trade has gradually matured, the development practice of service trade still calls for the birth of the theory of service trade. Helpman and Markusen, international economists, expressed on different occasions that the difficulty in establishing the theoretical system of service trade lies in the fact that there are large differences in various types of service trades, and it is difficult for researchers to overcome the gap between them. Classifying service trade according to certain standards and exploring the impact of various types of service trade on economic growth is a possible direction for future research.From the perspective of the research subjects, it is possible to study China’s service trade and economic growth. China’s GDP has already ranked second in the world. However, the service industry’s added value accounted for only 40% of GDP, which is obviously not commensurate with the status of an economic power. In addition, the trade in services is still relatively small compared to the trade in goods. Under such a realistic background, what is the relationship between China's service trade and economic growth? How will service trade contribute to China's economic growth? What impact will service outsourcing have on China's economy? With China in In the next decade, how will China make service trade an engine of economic growth? From the academic point of view, economists from all countries are paying attention to China’s economic development, and China’s service trade will also be improved. It will become a research hotspot.From the perspective of research topics, it is possible to study the impact of service outsourcing on economic growth. In 2008, the scale of global service outsourcing market has reached 1.5 trillion US dollars. According to the UNCTAD (UNCT AD) speculation, the global service outsourcing market will increase by 30%-40% in the next 5-10 years.The surging service industry outsourcing is a new form of service trade. How does service outsourcing drive economic growth through employment, industrial structure upgrading, and technology spillovers?What are the differences in the impact of contracting and receiving services on economic growth in the service industry? Research on these issues will start with the development of service outsourcing to important theoretical guidance.中文译文国际服务贸易与经济增长理论与实证研究Chakraborty Kavin1 引言国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。
国际经济与贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献.docx
国际经济与贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献.docx外文文献翻译The effects of subjective norms on behaviour in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysisMark Manning*University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USAA meta-analysis investigated the effects of perceived injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms on behaviour (BEH) within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in a sample of 196 studies. Two related correlation matrices (pairwise and listwise) were synthesized from the data and used to model the TPB relations with path analyses.Convergent evidence indicated that the relation between DN and BEH was stronger than the relation between IN and BEH. Evidence also suggested a significant direct relation between DN and BEH in the context of TPB. A suppressor effect of IN on DN in its relation with BEH was also noted? Moderator analyses indicated that the DN-BEH relation was stronger when there was more time between measures of cognition and behaviour, when behaviours were not socially approved, more socially motive and more pleasant: results were mixed in the case of the IN-BEH relation. Results imply that IN and DN are conceptually different constructs?As social beings, normative pressure inevitably affects our behaviour?Social nonns influence the way we dress, how we vote, what we buy, and a host of other behavioural decisions.Social psychologists have been exploring the influence of social norms on behaviour for decades? From AschM and Milgram s conformity- experiments (Asch, 19S6;Milgram, Bickman, & Berkowitz, 1969) through recent work by Cialdini andcolleagues(Cialdini, Reno. & Kallgren, 1990; Reno, Cialdini, & Kallgren, 1993), a substantial body of evidence has demonstrated that people conform to the judgments and behaviours of others.In experiments conducted by Cialdini and his colleagues (Cialdini et al., 1990; Reno et al., 1993), participants inferred behavioural norms for littering from environmental cues and acted in accord with these norms. The results highlight the fact that perceptions of norms, ratber than actual norms, can affect behaviour? Tlie relation between perceived norms and behaviour has receivedmuch empirical support (Borsari & Carey, 2003; Campo, Brossard. Fnizer. Marchell, Lewis, & Talbot, 2003; Gomberg, Schneider, & Dejong, 2(K)I; Grube, Morgan, & MeGree, 1986; Okun, Karoly, & Lutz,2002; Riniai & Real. 2005). However, one ofthc most influential models for predicting behaviour, the thcor>*of planned behaviour (TPB; Ajzcn, 1991), posits that rather than a direct relation between norm and behaviour, perceived nortns influence behaviour indirectly by way of behavioural intentions. Investigating the perceived norm-behaviour relation in tlic context of this theory offers insight not only into the strength of the relation, but also into the extent to which perceived norms may directly influence behaviour counter to theoretical expectations.The present study used mcta-analytic path analyses to examine, the relation between two types of perceived norms (injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms; described below) and behaviour in the context of the TPB (Ajzcn. 1991). The investigation explored the direct effects of IN and DN on behaviour as well as factors that may moderate the effect of subjective norms (SN) on behaviour?The theory of planned behaviourAccording to the TPB, the immediate antecedent of behaviour is the intention to pertbrm the behaviour (Figure 1). This behavioural intention is in turn a function of three major determinants: attitude towards the behaviour, perceived SN pertaining to the behaviour, and perceived degree of control over engaging in and ctJmpleting the behaviour (perceived behavioural control).The formation of attitudes (ATT), SN and perceived behavioural control (PBC) are respectively functions of behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs and control beliefs that a person holds with regards to the behaviour? Concerning ATT, the set of accessible beliefs that a person holds about the outcome of a behaviour will determine the evaluation of the behaviour, and thus influence the strength and direction of the ATT towards the behaviour.SN are a function of the normative beliefs that people relevant to the individual are perceived as having towards tbe behaviour coupled with the motivation of the individual to comply with the expected notins of these relevant persons? PBC is a function of the perceived factors that will influence the ability to engage in the behaviour coupled with the perception as to whether or not these factors will be present.In short, the TPB holds that favourable ATT, SN. And perceptions of control will lead to favourable intentions to engage in a given behaviour. Actual control over engaging in the behaviouris itself an important determinant? To the extent that individuals realistically appraise the amount of control that they have over the behaviour, the measure of PBC; can serve as a proxy for actual control. Perceived control is expected to have amoderating effect such that intentions will be reflected in actual behaviour to the extent that perceived control is high.The TPB has been applied successfully to a wide range of behaviours accounting for a sizable amount of variance (Armitage & Ckmner, 2001: Bamberg, Ajzen, & Schmidt,2003; Hardeman. Johnston. Johnston, Bonetti, Wareham, & Kinmonth. 2002; Povey.Wellens, & Conner, 2001; Rise. Thompson. & Verplanken, 2003). Regarding the SN construct, the theory holds that the effect of SN on behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions? In other words, SN are not expected to have a direct effect (DE)on behaviour but instead influetice behaviours indirectly through their effect on intentions.Descriptive and injunctive normsTwo types of SN can be distinguished. IN are social pressures to engage in a behaviour based on the perception of what other people want you to do whereas DN are social pressures based on the observed or inferred behaviour of others? Tliis distinction has been empirically supported (Cialdini et al .,1990; Deutsch & Gerard.1955; Grube et al., 1986; Larimer & Neighbours, 2005; Larimer. Turner, Mallett. & Geisner, 2004; Reno et al.,1993; Rhodes & Courneya, 2003; White, Terry, & Hogg, 1994). Within the TPB, the SN construct was originally conceptualized as an injunctive norm (Ajzen, 1991). More recently, however, Ajzen and Fishbein (200S) have recommended including both types of normative measures in constructing planned behaviour stirveys? DN and IN will therefore be considered separately in the analyses to follow. Subjective norms-behaviour relationIn reviewing the SN construct in the planned behaviour context, Conner and Armitage(1998) have noted the lack of predictive power of the IN construct when predicting intention.Due to the paucity- of studies including DN in the planned behaviour context,conclusions regarding DN in this context are sparser. Recently, several investigators have included DN as predictors of intentions in the planned behaviour model (PBM;Fekadu &Kraft, 2002; MCiMUlan & Conner, 2(K)3; Okun et al.. 2002: Sheeran & Orbell, 1999b). Rivis and Sbeeran (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of DN in the planned behaviour context. Their analysis, based on 18 studies, demonstrated a significant relationship between DN and intention when controlling for otlier variables in the TPB.In that, these previous studies have investigated theeffects of SN on intentions, to date,no planned behaviour mcta-ana lysis has explored the potential for differences in the effects of SN on behaviour in the planned behaviour context.Deutsch and Gerard (1955) have suggested that DN and IN refer to different sources of motivation. Regarding DN, it has been shown that perceptions of behaviours of others lead one to behave in similar manners (Asch, 1956;Milgram et al., 1969). Descriptive normative information functions as a heuristic with regards to behavioural decisions offering cues as to what is appropriate behaviour iii a given situation (Cialdini et al., 1990; van Knippenberg, 2000). IN on the other iiand operate more through the role of motivation to comply with social sanctions (Ajzen, 1991;Lapinski & Rimal, 2005). To the extent that individuals are motivated to comply with perceived behavioural expectations of relevant referents, they avoid social sanctions?Though several studies have looked at the effect of one or botli types of norms on particular behaviours, there has yet to be a single meta-analytical review that compares the relationshipbetween the two types of norms and behaviours across a spectrum of behaviours. Consequently, on a general level it is unknown whether one type of norm has a stronger effect on behaviour than the other it may be hypothesized that DN have a stronger effect on behaviour than IN because DN are activated in the immediate behavioural situation. Furthermore, processing of DN for behavioural decisions may require less cognitive effort relative to the processing of IN, in that DN may rely more on heuristic than systematic informatioprocessing?Perhaps, this advantage contributes to efficient behavioural decision?making in line with descriptive normative information. In fact, researchers have shown that conditions that facilitate the use of heuristic information-processing lead participants to act more in line with DN (Hertel, Neuhof, Theucr, & Kerr, 2000). It is expected therefore, that DN will have a stronger effect on behaviour relative to IN.Direct effect ofSN on behaviourThe TPB posits that the relationship between SN and behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions (Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1973)? However, a number of planned behaviour studies that have included normative constructs as a behavioural predictor have found direct effects of SN on behaviour (Christian & Abrams, 2004 -Study 2; Christian & Arm 让age, 2002; Christian, Armitage, & Abrams, 2003; Okun et al.,2002; Trafimow & Finlay, 2001). In most research with the TPB, the effect of the normative component on intentions has received most attention (Armitage & Conner,2001; Rivis & Sheeran, 2003) while the potential for a DE of SN onbehaviour has received little empirical or meta-analytical scrutiny.One reason to explore, the potential for a DE may be the hypothetical nature under which most people report cognitionspertaining to behaviour in planned behaviour studies? Hypothetical contexts may not accurately reflect the relations between cognitions and behaviours that are evident in real behavioural contexts (Ajzen, Brown, & Carvajal, 2004). Furthermore, when an individual reports an intention to engage in a particular behaviour in one instance, that behavioural intention may be subject to change from the instance it is formed to the moment when an opportunity for behavioural engagement arises (Ajzen, 1991).For example, in the classic linn (1965) study, hotel managers expressed little intent to allow Chinese couples to stay in their hotels, however allowed them to do so when the instance arose? It is less likely that perceptions of norms related to the behaviour will change over time. Consequently, there is the potential for reported normative perceptions to have stronger relations with behaviour compared with relations between reported behavioural intentions and behaviour. This may be reflected in the presence of a DE of SN on the particular behaviour. The present meta-analjtical synthesis provides the opportunity* to gauge the potential for a direct relation between SN and behaviour in the context of the TPB.Variation in the magnitude of the SN^ehaviour relationship The possibility of a DE of SN on behaviour within the TPB implies that there are two ways in which SN can affect behaviour. There can be the theoretically posited indirect effect on behaviour mediated through intentions, and there may be a DE on behaviour. The total effect therefore is the sum of these two effects? In accord with the prediction that DN have a stronger relation with behaviours compared to the IN-behaviour relation, it is expected that the total effect of DN on behaviour is greater than the total effect of IN on behaviour. In addition to predicteddifferences between DN and IN in their effects on behaviour, there is the potential for differences in the magnitude of the effect within each type of norm. Compatibility* between measures of cognition and behaviour and the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour are expected to lead to differences in the magnitudes of the effects of SN on behaviour. Additionally, the potential moderating effect of three further variables will be explored;the level of social approval of the behaviour, the extent to which social motives underlie behaviour, and the extent to which a behaviour is uselial versus pleasant may all contribute to variance in the relationship between norms and behaviour.CompatibilityElements of a particular behaviour can be defined in terms of the behavioural target, the action involved in the behaviour, the context in which the behaviour is performed, and the time at wliich it is performed. The relationship between cognitive predictors of a particular behaviour and engagement in the behaviour will be stronger if behavioural elements and cognitive assessment of the behaviour are compatible (Ajzen, 1996; Ajzen & Fishbein. 1977). That is to say., for instance, that if an investigator would tike to pretlict someone's propensity* to exercise 3 days a week for half an hour, measures should assess cognitions regarding exercising 3 days a week for half an hour rather than cognitions to be healthy, or some other general cognition regarding exercise?Tenned the ”principle of compatibility0, it holds that measurements of planned behaviour variables must be compatible with the target behaviour in terms of target, action, context, and time. Given the effect of compatibility and the magnitude of the correlations betweenplanned behaviour variables and behavioural measures, it is expected that studies where the cognitive and behavioural measures are fully compatible will feature stronger relations between SN and behaviour. It is also expected that among studies where measures are more compatible, the intention mediated relation between SN and behaviour will be stronger than any unmediated relation, in line with theoretical dictates, whereas among studies that are less compatible there will potentially be greater direct effects of SN on behaviour.Time interval between measures of SN and behaviourAccording to Ajzen ( 1991 ). cognitive precursors of behaviour that are measured closer to the target behaviour should be more predictive of behavioural engagement. Due to motivational considerations, measures of the intention to engage in a particular behaviour will vary as a function of proximity to behavioural engagement (Bandura & Schunk. 1981; Kamiol & Ross, 1996; Steel & Konig, 2006) in that tlie ftirther in the future is the potential behavioural engagement, the less predictive are intentions to engage in this behaviour. As Ibe relation between stated intentions and actual behaviour decreases over time, the potential exists for SN to be relatively more predictive of behaviour. This potential is evident in light of the argument outlined above wherein SN pertaining to a behaviour are less likely to change over time compared to behavioural intentions. As such, it is expected that as the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour increases, SN will be reflected to a greater extent in actual behaviour.Furthermore, as the relation between intentions and behaviour diminishes, it is likely that the DE of SN on behaviour will be stronger as more time passes between measures of cognition and behaviour.。
国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译
China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damage its neighbors. We examine the dime nsions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive performance by technology and market, and finds that market share losses are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly exposed to a competitive threat. We examine intra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direct trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.IntroductionConcern about China’s competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East and Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export losses.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hollowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related services. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention seems to have been on exports.Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTOaccession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and‘segmentation’ are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bases. China’s own enterprises are likely to specialize with respect to reg ional counterparts and so raise intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbors.It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary products or slow-growing segments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to compete more directl y than affiliates of thesame MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.Background on Chinese export performanceChinese manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world merchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured exports rose from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (see below) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education rose from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of manyneighbors. It is using its diverse industrial base to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to raise local R&D and linkages; till now it has been able to impose performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.WTO accession may constrain China’s ability to use indust rial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002).Market share changes in major developed country marketsWe analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itself ($74.6 billion).The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kong’s loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japanese market. Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has alarge gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer losses in market share, but Singapore sees an increase in Japanese market share. The best overall performance among the new Tigers is by Indonesia.Medium technology products: While the Chinese pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer losses in the US market. High technology exports: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the second largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reversed, with Singapore joining Taiwan in losing market shares. Among the new Tigers, Malaysia and the Philippines are the big gainers in Japan, but the other two also benefit significantly. The Philippines is the second largest winner in the group in the US market. In sum, China’s main market share gains in the developed world are concentrated in Japan (though the US accounts for a larger dollar value of export growth). This is also true of its neighbors with the exceptions of Korea and Indonesia (Hong Kong was an all-round loser). To the extent that we can interpret market share changes to be causally related to China’s export surge, it would seem that the mature Tigers suffered the most from Chinese competition. The largest such loss is in low technology products, which is to be expected, but this not take into account the growth of LT exports by Korea and Taiwan to China. The relatively low gains by the lower-income new Tigers in LT may also reflect the impact of Chinese competition – without the offsetting increase in exports of intermediates to China.ConclusionsChina’s export surge has raised grave concerns in the region. While some of the apocalyptic predictions may have been overdone, it is certainly possible that rapid export growth by such a massive entrant will adversely affects export growth in its neighbors. As this analysis shows,however, the outcome is complex.For a start, the rise in China’s exports is matched by that in its imports – within the region its import growth outpaces its export growth. With appropriate restructuring of activities to match new competitive needs, its neighbors should be able to maintain high rates of export growth.There are two main drivers of regional exports to China. The first is to meet its burgeoning demand for imported products: primary products and resource-based manufactures that it cannot produce capital goods and intermediates for domestic -oriented production and more sophisticated consumer goods than its industry can currently provide. The second is to meet the needs of its export industries. This has two components: ‘processing’ activity in special economic zones that use imported inputs for export activities, and other exporters that also need imports. Processing activity is increasingly organized as part of integrated production systems, particularly its high technology segments, though some domestic oriented industries are also being plugged into this system as they realize scale and learning economies and become globally competitive. Both drivers are likely to continue into the foreseeable future, though their composition will change as Chinese and regional capabilities develop.中国竞争力的表现：是对东亚制成品出口的威胁吗？越来越多的东南亚和东亚地区关注中国出口的迅速增长所带来的竞争威胁，中国加入WTO后，更加剧了这种情况。
国贸专业外文文献翻译
外文文献原稿和译文原稿Introduction2010,Risks in Global MarketWhere there’s an opportunity,there’s a risk.Traders always face risks in any market,from the richest countries to the least developed economies. And as the global economic crisis changed markets,some risks for international trades might have been unveiled or worsened.The risks,which derive from the diversity and vicissitude of market structures,jurisdictions,commerce rules, cultures,languages,and even psychosociological factors,may exist in any sector and stage of the trade process,such as destination marketing,customs clearance,financial support,debts and solvencies,and adherence to WTO rules.A report by the Ministry of Commerce of China specified the risks of investing and doing business in many countries.Zhou Mi,an expert on the research panel,argued that the global market is undergoing a wave of restructuring and rebalancing because consumption in developed countries has waned and the emerging economies will accordingly wield greater influence in the world economy.The newest updates of this report will reveal more specifics, and some of them are listed here in advance.A senior manager from Ernst& Young analyzes the effect that corporate reshaping could have on customs clearance.China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation evaluates the risk factors in the financial systems and debt structures of some important markets.An expert from China’s Economic Diplomacy defines some risks created by WTO rules and offers advice on how to handle the risks.译文介绍2010年，在全球市场的风险那里是一个机会，还有一个风险。
世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译
World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce them domestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessary imports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields. This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all, even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannot afford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But the typist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. The benefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent e xporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of London, is a leading expor ter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buy all finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soar in the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of making international payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act provided for protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection included peril point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units into large geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold. A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。
国贸外文文献翻译
外文文献翻译原文：FACTORS AFFECTING ONLINE PURCHASING BEHAVIORHamisah Haji Hasan & Prof. Samsudin A. RahimUniversiti Putra Malaysia & Universiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaAbstractThe study examined the relationship between consumer personality and cultural dimensions to that of purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory and Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions were incorporated in the study. A survey was conducted in the Subang Jaya, Puchong and Kuala Lumpur area. The sample consisted of 504 respondents drawn from a simple random sampling. Spearman Correlation Coefficients was used to analyze the data. The study showed as suggested by Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory, high involvement products and attitude towards Internet contributed significantly to the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Thus indicating the Internet to be better suited for high involvement products and services as well as help increase the tendency to purchase products and services online.Similarly, the study also showed that the convenience dimension of the consumer personality variable formed a significant relationship with purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Although Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions argued that cultural dimensions influences the adoption of innovations, yet results obtained from the study failed to support the theory as it was found that risk personality which represent the other dimension of the consumer personality and the cultural dimensions failed to support the hypotheses as observed in the non-significant relationships between the variables and the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising.Keywords: Internet, Hofstede Cultural Dimension, Krugman Low Involvment Theory, advertising, online purchasing behavior.The Internet Era: Cyber Advertising and Media PlanningThe development in the new media technologies that range from the Internet, interactive kiosks and CD-ROMS, to digital TV and radio are today ushering in a new era and have opened up new avenues for marketing communications. These new media are not only revolutionizing marketing and marketing communications but it has also influence consumers‟ behavior.The advent of the new technology namely the internet has tremendously altered the way consumers behave. The new media has not only offered consumers a better way to view products and services but also has helped created a better relationship between marketer and consumers. Thus, transforming them into a more sophisticated, well-informed and savvy buyers and as suggested by Arens (1999) consumers today are becoming “active controllers “of the messages they see and hear. Apparently, these past few years have also witnessed the rise and rapid growth in economic importance of a group of consumers whose attitudes, aspirations and purchasingpatterns are unlike any before them. Today, they are the new consumers. They are already a potent force in the developed world, and within the next decade will probably dominate consumption in all parts of the world. This new consumers with their distinctive style of consumption differs in their purchasing decisions from that of the old consumers.The Internet has affected the way the world do business by altering the basic business dynamics. The dynamics that have shaped economic practices since the early nineteenth century are being replaced by a new set of fundamental principle based on the new digital economy. The Internet has also helped increased global exposure for both businesses and consumers alike. Domestic companies expand internationally just by going online and investing in e-business. At the time consumers can also expand their shopping horizons by using the Internet to search for the best deals and expose themselves to e-retailers from around the globe.Obviously, the Internet has offer tremendous new opportunities to businesses regardless oftheir size. As a medium, it is equally accessible to both the large as well as the small operators. This has thus, resulted in local and international marketplace. The Internet is changing the way advertisers present, sell, and communicate with consumers. Today, a variety of practices are being used to reach consumers.译文：影响网上购物的因素Hamisah哈吉·哈桑教授及三苏丁A.拉希姆马来西亚博特拉大学和马来西亚国民大学摘要该研究通过网络购买行为验证消费者的个性和文化维度之间的关系。
国际贸易参考文献英文
国际贸易参考文献英文English:For references on international trade, there are several key texts that scholars and practitioners often use. "International Trade: Theory and Policy" by Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld is a well-regarded textbook that provides an in-depth understanding of the theories and policies surrounding international trade. Another important reference is "World Trade Statistical Review" by the World Trade Organization, which provides comprehensive data and analysis on global trade patterns and trends. "The Law and Policy of the World Trade Organization" by Peter Van Den Bossche is an essential text for understanding the legal framework and workings of the WTO, while "The Competitive Advantage of Nations" by Michael E. Porter offers insights into the role of national competitiveness in international trade. These references cover a wide range of topics and provide valuable insights into the complexities of international trade.中文翻译:对于国际贸易的参考文献，有几本关键的书籍是学者和实践者经常使用的。
国际经济与贸易 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 .docx
外文文献翻译The effects of subjective norms on behaviour in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysisMark Manning*University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USAA meta-analysis investigated the effects of perceived injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms on behaviour (BEH) within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in a sample of 196 studies. Two related correlation matrices (pairwise and listwise) were synthesized from the data and used to model the TPB relations with path analyses.Convergent evidence indicated that the relation between DN and BEH was stronger than the relation between IN and BEH. Evidence also suggested a significant direct relation between DN and BEH in the context of TPB. A suppressor effect of IN on DN in its relation with BEH was also noted・ Moderator analyses indicated that the DN-BEH relation was stronger when there was more time between measures of cognition and behaviour, when behaviours were not socially approved, more socially motive and more pleasant: results were mixed in the case of the IN-BEH relation. Results imply that IN and DN are conceptually different constructs・As social beings, normative pressure inevitably affects our behaviour・Social nonns influence the way we dress, how we vote, what we buy, and a host of other behavioural decisions.Social psychologists have been exploring the influence of social norms on behaviour for decades・ From AschM and Milgram s conformity- experiments (Asch, 19S6;Milgram, Bickman, & Berkowitz, 1969) through recent work by Cialdini and colleagues(Cialdini, Reno. & Kallgren, 1990; Reno, Cialdini, & Kallgren, 1993), a substantial body of evidence has demonstrated that people conform to the judgments and behaviours of others.In experiments conducted by Cialdini and his colleagues (Cialdini et al., 1990; Reno et al., 1993), participants inferred behavioural norms for littering from environmental cues and acted in accord with these norms. The results highlight the fact that perceptions of norms, ratber than actual norms, can affect behaviour・ Tlie relation between perceived norms and behaviour has receivedmuch empirical support (Borsari & Carey, 2003; Campo, Brossard. Fnizer. Marchell, Lewis, & Talbot, 2003; Gomberg, Schneider, & Dejong, 2(K)I; Grube, Morgan, & MeGree, 1986; Okun, Karoly, & Lutz,2002; Riniai & Real. 2005). However, one ofthc most influential models for predicting behaviour, the thcor>*of planned behaviour (TPB; Ajzcn, 1991), posits that rather than a direct relation between norm and behaviour, perceived nortns influence behaviour indirectly by way of behavioural intentions. Investigating the perceived norm-behaviour relation in tlic context of this theory offers insight not only into the strength of the relation, but also into the extent to which perceived norms may directly influence behaviour counter to theoretical expectations.The present study used mcta-analytic path analyses to examine, the relation between two types of perceived norms (injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms; described below) and behaviour in the context of the TPB (Ajzcn. 1991). The investigation explored the direct effects of IN and DN on behaviour as well as factors that may moderate the effect of subjective norms (SN) on behaviour・The theory of planned behaviourAccording to the TPB, the immediate antecedent of behaviour is the intention to pertbrm the behaviour (Figure 1). This behavioural intention is in turn a function of three major determinants: attitude towards the behaviour, perceived SN pertaining to the behaviour, and perceived degree of control over engaging in and ctJmpleting the behaviour (perceived behavioural control).The formation of attitudes (ATT), SN and perceived behavioural control (PBC) are respectively functions of behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs and control beliefs that a person holds with regards to the behaviour・ Concerning ATT, the set of accessible beliefs that a person holds about the outcome of a behaviour will determine the evaluation of the behaviour, and thus influence the strength and direction of the ATT towards the behaviour.SN are a function of the normative beliefs that people relevant to the individual are perceived as having towards tbe behaviour coupled with the motivation of the individual to comply with the expected notins of these relevant persons・ PBC is a function of the perceived factors that will influence the ability to engage in the behaviour coupled with the perception as to whether or not these factors will be present.In short, the TPB holds that favourable ATT, SN. And perceptions of control will lead to favourable intentions to engage in a given behaviour. Actual control over engaging in the behaviouris itself an important determinant・ To the extent that individuals realistically appraise the amount of control that they have over the behaviour, the measure of PBC; can serve as a proxy for actual control. Perceived control is expected to have a moderating effect such that intentions will be reflected in actual behaviour to the extent that perceived control is high.The TPB has been applied successfully to a wide range of behaviours accounting for a sizable amount of variance (Armitage & Ckmner, 2001: Bamberg, Ajzen, & Schmidt,2003; Hardeman. Johnston. Johnston, Bonetti, Wareham, & Kinmonth. 2002; Povey.Wellens, & Conner, 2001; Rise. Thompson. & Verplanken, 2003). Regarding the SN construct, the theory holds that the effect of SN on behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions・ In other words, SN are not expected to have a direct effect (DE)on behaviour but instead influetice behaviours indirectly through their effect on intentions.Descriptive and injunctive normsTwo types of SN can be distinguished. IN are social pressures to engage in a behaviour based on the perception of what other people want you to do whereas DN are social pressures based on the observed or inferred behaviour of others・ Tliis distinction has been empirically supported (Cialdini et al .,1990; Deutsch & Gerard.1955; Grube et al., 1986; Larimer & Neighbours, 2005; Larimer. Turner, Mallett. & Geisner, 2004; Reno et al.,1993; Rhodes & Courneya, 2003; White, Terry, & Hogg, 1994). Within the TPB, the SN construct was originally conceptualized as an injunctive norm (Ajzen, 1991). More recently, however, Ajzen and Fishbein (200S) have recommended including both types of normative measures in constructing planned behaviour stirveys・ DN and IN will therefore be considered separately in the analyses to follow. Subjective norms-behaviour relationIn reviewing the SN construct in the planned behaviour context, Conner and Armitage(1998) have noted the lack of predictive power of the IN construct when predicting intention. Due to the paucity- of studies including DN in the planned behaviour context,conclusions regarding DN in this context are sparser. Recently, several investigators have included DN as predictors of intentions in the planned behaviour model (PBM;Fekadu &Kraft, 2002; MCiMUlan & Conner, 2(K)3; Okun et al.. 2002: Sheeran & Orbell, 1999b). Rivis and Sbeeran (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of DN in the planned behaviour context. Their analysis, based on 18 studies, demonstrated a significant relationship between DN and intention when controlling for otlier variables in the TPB.In that, these previous studies have investigated theeffects of SN on intentions, to date,no planned behaviour mcta-ana lysis has explored the potential for differences in the effects of SN on behaviour in the planned behaviour context.Deutsch and Gerard (1955) have suggested that DN and IN refer to different sources of motivation. Regarding DN, it has been shown that perceptions of behaviours of others lead one to behave in similar manners (Asch, 1956;Milgram et al., 1969). Descriptive normative information functions as a heuristic with regards to behavioural decisions offering cues as to what is appropriate behaviour iii a given situation (Cialdini et al., 1990; van Knippenberg, 2000). IN on the other iiand operate more through the role of motivation to comply with social sanctions (Ajzen, 1991;Lapinski & Rimal, 2005). To the extent that individuals are motivated to comply with perceived behavioural expectations of relevant referents, they avoid social sanctions・Though several studies have looked at the effect of one or botli types of norms on particular behaviours, there has yet to be a single meta-analytical review that compares the relationship between the two types of norms and behaviours across a spectrum of behaviours. Consequently, on a general level it is unknown whether one type of norm has a stronger effect on behaviour than the other it may be hypothesized that DN have a stronger effect on behaviour than IN because DN are activated in the immediate behavioural situation. Furthermore, processing of DN for behavioural decisions may require less cognitive effort relative to the processing of IN, in that DN may rely more on heuristic than systematic informatioprocessing・Perhaps, this advantage contributes to efficient behavioural decision・making in line with descriptive normative information. In fact, researchers have shown that conditions that facilitate the use of heuristic information-processing lead participants to act more in line with DN (Hertel, Neuhof, Theucr, & Kerr, 2000). It is expected therefore, that DN will have a stronger effect on behaviour relative to IN.Direct effect ofSN on behaviourThe TPB posits that the relationship between SN and behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions (Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1973)・ However, a number of planned behaviour studies that have included normative constructs as a behavioural predictor have found direct effects of SN on behaviour (Christian & Abrams, 2004 -Study 2; Christian & Arm让age, 2002; Christian, Armitage, & Abrams, 2003; Okun et al.,2002; Trafimow & Finlay, 2001). In most research with the TPB, the effect of the normative component on intentions has received most attention (Armitage & Conner,2001; Rivis & Sheeran, 2003) while the potential for a DE of SN onbehaviour has received little empirical or meta-analytical scrutiny.One reason to explore, the potential for a DE may be the hypothetical nature under which most people report cognitions pertaining to behaviour in planned behaviour studies・ Hypothetical contexts may not accurately reflect the relations between cognitions and behaviours that are evident in real behavioural contexts (Ajzen, Brown, & Carvajal, 2004). Furthermore, when an individual reports an intention to engage in a particular behaviour in one instance, that behavioural intention may be subject to change from the instance it is formed to the moment when an opportunity for behavioural engagement arises (Ajzen, 1991).For example, in the classic linn (1965) study, hotel managers expressed little intent to allow Chinese couples to stay in their hotels, however allowed them to do so when the instance arose・ It is less likely that perceptions of norms related to the behaviour will change over time. Consequently, there is the potential for reported normative perceptions to have stronger relations with behaviour compared with relations between reported behavioural intentions and behaviour. This may be reflected in the presence of a DE of SN on the particular behaviour. The present meta-analjtical synthesis provides the opportunity* to gauge the potential for a direct relation between SN and behaviour in the context of the TPB.Variation in the magnitude of the SN^ehaviour relationshipThe possibility of a DE of SN on behaviour within the TPB implies that there are two ways in which SN can affect behaviour. There can be the theoretically posited indirect effect on behaviour mediated through intentions, and there may be a DE on behaviour. The total effect therefore is the sum of these two effects・ In accord with the prediction that DN have a stronger relation with behaviours compared to the IN-behaviour relation, it is expected that the total effect of DN on behaviour is greater than the total effect of IN on behaviour. In addition to predicted differences between DN and IN in their effects on behaviour, there is the potential for differences in the magnitude of the effect within each type of norm. Compatibility* between measures of cognition and behaviour and the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour are expected to lead to differences in the magnitudes of the effects of SN on behaviour. Additionally, the potential moderating effect of three further variables will be explored;the level of social approval of the behaviour, the extent to which social motives underlie behaviour, and the extent to which a behaviour is uselial versus pleasant may all contribute to variance in the relationship between norms and behaviour.CompatibilityElements of a particular behaviour can be defined in terms of the behavioural target, the action involved in the behaviour, the context in which the behaviour is performed, and the time at wliich it is performed. The relationship between cognitive predictors of a particular behaviour and engagement in the behaviour will be stronger if behavioural elements and cognitive assessment of the behaviour are compatible (Ajzen, 1996; Ajzen & Fishbein. 1977). That is to say., for instance, that if an investigator would tike to pretlict someone's propensity* to exercise 3 days a week for half an hour, measures should assess cognitions regarding exercising 3 days a week for half an hour rather than cognitions to be healthy, or some other general cognition regarding exercise・Tenned the ”principle of compatibility0, it holds that measurements of planned behaviour variables must be compatible with the target behaviour in terms of target, action, context, and time. Given the effect of compatibility and the magnitude of the correlations between planned behaviour variables and behavioural measures, it is expected that studies where the cognitive and behavioural measures are fully compatible will feature stronger relations between SN and behaviour. It is also expected that among studies where measures are more compatible, the intention mediated relation between SN and behaviour will be stronger than any unmediated relation, in line with theoretical dictates, whereas among studies that are less compatible there will potentially be greater direct effects of SN on behaviour.Time interval between measures of SN and behaviourAccording to Ajzen ( 1991 ). cognitive precursors of behaviour that are measured closer to the target behaviour should be more predictive of behavioural engagement. Due to motivational considerations, measures of the intention to engage in a particular behaviour will vary as a function of proximity to behavioural engagement (Bandura & Schunk. 1981; Kamiol & Ross, 1996; Steel & Konig, 2006) in that tlie ftirther in the future is the potential behavioural engagement, the less predictive are intentions to engage in this behaviour. As Ibe relation between stated intentions and actual behaviour decreases over time, the potential exists for SN to be relatively more predictive of behaviour. This potential is evident in light of the argument outlined above wherein SN pertaining to a behaviour are less likely to change over time compared to behavioural intentions. As such, it is expected that as the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour increases, SN will be reflected to a greater extent in actual behaviour.Furthermore, as the relation between intentions and behaviour diminishes, it is likely that the DE of SN on behaviour will be stronger as more time passes between measures of cognition and behaviour.计划行为理论根据TPB理论，行为的直接前因是执行行为的意向。
国际贸易外文文献
目录一、外文文献译文（1）2008：狂乱之旅 (1)二、外文文献原文（1）2008: A Wild Ride (6)三、外文文献译文（2）2008年下半年场外衍生产品市场活动 (13)四、外文文献原文（2）OTC derivatives market activity in the second half of 2008 (16)2008：狂乱之旅对全球期货和期权行业而言，2008年是惊心动魄的一年。
一些主要的市场参与者，有些甚至曾经是市场上规模最大的公司之一，现在已经消失；同时，市场参与者面临的交易对手信用风险加剧，市场状况令人担忧。
特别是在2008年9月雷曼兄弟宣布破产后，市场波动加剧，流动性随之降低，期货和期权市场上一些全球交易规模最大和最富盛名的交易品种的交易量也产生了毋庸置疑的下跌。
尽管市场动荡不安，但期货和期权交易量的总趋势仍然是向上增长的。
美国期货业协会追踪的遍布全球的69个交易所交易的期货及期权的总交易量同比上涨13.7%。
虽然美国处于信用危机的风暴中心，受创最为严重，但是美国交易所2008年期货和期权交易量仍然同比增长14.0%，欧洲和亚洲的交易量增加得更快。
毫无疑问，交易量在多年高速增长后，增速已逐步放缓。
2008年全球期货和期权交易量同比增长13.7%，远低于2007年30.9%和2006年18.9%的增幅。
The Big ChillAfter shooting upward for several years, the growth in global futures and options trading decelerated sharply in 2008.更重要的是，相对温和的数据掩盖了不同类别交易品种交易量变化趋势的差异性。
以美国为例，美国期货市场的交易量仅仅同比增长了 4.4%。
与此截然相反的是，尽管市场波动异常剧烈，美国期权交易所的交易量仍然同比大涨25.1%。
世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译
世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations areself-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, internationalfinance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala)that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives moneyin payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough ofa particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce themdomestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessaryimports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields.This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all,even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannotafford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But thetypist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. Thebenefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent exporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of L ondon, is a leading exporter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buyall finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soarin the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of makinginternational payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act providedfor protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection includedperil point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units intolarge geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold.A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。
国贸专业英文文献翻译
Oil price fluctuations and their impact on the macroeconomic variables of Kuwait：a case study using a V AR modelSUMMARYIn this study，a vector auto regression model (V AR) and a vector error correction model (VECM) were estimated to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on seven key macroeconomic variables for the Kuwaiti economy. Quarterly data for the period 1984 - 1998 were utilized. Theoretically and empirically speaking，VECM is superior to the V AR approach. Also，the results corresponding to the VECM model are closer to common sense.However，the estimated models indicate a high degree of interrelation between major macroeconomic variables. The empirical results highlight the causality running from the oil prices and oil revenues，to government development and current expenditure and then towards other variables. For the most part，the empirical evidence indicates that oil price shocks and hence oil revenues have a notable impact on government expenditure，both development and current. However，government development expenditure has been influenced relatively more.The results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand，the variations in value of imports are mostlyaccounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. Also，the results from the VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 percent in the 10th quarter，even more than its own variations.KEY WORDS：vector auto regression (V AR); oil fluctuation; Kuwait1. INTRODUCTIONThe post-1973 effects of the oil boom on the economies of Arab oil producing countries have been diverse，though on balance，many of those governments might look back on the period 1973 –1986 as a mixed blessing. Income on the oil account certainly rose rapidly，but so did price inflation，wage rates and reliance on foreign labor. Above all，the growth of the oil sector as a contributor to national income tended to reduce the role of nonoil sectors to insignificance in most Arab states of the Gulf. This phenomenon has been termed in the literature ‘the Dutch Disease ’ . Dramatic ris es in per capita income were the fruits of rising oil revenues alone，even in the case of the larger more diversified economies of the Gulf such as Iran (Al-Abbasi，1991).There is a great deal of theoretical and empirical literature scrutinizing various aspects of the Dutch Disease economies such as Cordon and Neary (1982)，Hamilton (1983)，Neary and van Wijnbergen (1986)，Fardmanesh (1991)，Van Wijnbergen (1984)，Gelb and Associates (1988) and Taylor et al. (1986) to name a few. Recently，several empirical studies have been published on Arab oil producing countries. For instance，Taher (1987) studied the impacts of changes in the world oil prices on the different sectors of the Saudi economy. Furthermore，Al-Mutawa (1991) and Al-Mutawa and Cuddington (1994) analysed the effects of oil shocks and macroeconomic policy changes for the UAE. The results showed that，in the case of UAE，an oil-quantity boom led to higher welfare gains than an oil-price boom. Moreover，an oil-price or quantity bust always led to lower economic growth and created a welfare loss. Also，Al-Mutairi (1993) attempted to identify the sources of output fluctuations and the dynamic response of the economy to changes in key macroeconomic variables for Kuwait. His empirical results suggested that for short horizons of one and two years，shocks to the oil price account for more than 50 per cent of the variance of GDP. However，at longer horizons of three years and more，these shocks are seen to be unimportant in inducing GDP fluctuations，accounting only for less than 10 per cent of the variance. Shocks of real-government expenditure were also found to have a significant role in causing GDP fluctuations.Kuwait is a typical example of an oil-based economy. The oil sector contributes over two-thirds of GDP and over 90 per cent of exports. Although Kuwait tries hard to lessen its dependence on oil through the development of a non-oil sector，its success has so far been，at the best，very modest. The real problem is that oil prices and hence oilrevenues are exogenously determined. As a member of OPEC，Kuwait has no control over the price of its crude oil and at least theoretically speaking cannot exceed its assigned production quota. The objectives of this study are to investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on key macroeconomic variables of the Kuwaiti economy，to examine the direction of causality and to determine the significance of such impacts. This will certainly enhance our understanding of how international oil price fluctuations impact key macroeconomic variables and the dynamic response of these economic variables，including policy variables such as government expenditure and money supply.In this study，the analysis is carried out using two different models，namely，the vector autoregres-sion model (V AR) and the vector error correction model (VECM). The V AR technique is appropriate in this case because of its ability to characterize the dynamic structure of the model as well as its ability to avoid imposing excessive identifying restrictions associated with different economic theories. The use of V AR in macroeconomics has generated much empirical evidence，giving fundamental support to many economic theories (see Blanchard and Watson，1984，Bernanke，1986 among others).In the next section，a brief review of the literature is presented followed by the V AR model along with the data utilized. The empirical results and their interpretation are given in section four，followed by the conclusions.2. THE MODEL2.1. The background of V AR methodologyThe V AR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The V AR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. An n variable V AR system can be written asA(l)Y t=A+U t(1)A(l)=l-A1l-A2l2-A m l m(2)where Y t is an n × 1 vector of macroeconomic variables，A is an n ×1 vector of constraints，and U t is an n ×1 vector of random variables，each of which is serially uncorrelated with constant variance and zero mean. Equation(2) is an n × n matrix of normalized polynomials in the lag operator l with the first entry of each polynomial on A ' s being unity.Since the error terms (U t) in the above model are serially uncorrelated，an ordinary-least-squares (OLS) technique would be appropriate to estimate this model. However，before estimating the parameters of the model A(l) meaningfully，one must limit the length of the lag in the polynomials. If l is the lag length，the number of coefficients to be estimated is n(nl +c)，where c is the number of constants.In the V AR model above，the current innovations (U t) are unanticipated but become part of the information set in the next period.This implies that the anticipated impact of a variable is captured in the coefficients of lagged polynomials while the residuals capture unforeseen contem-poraneous events. Therefore，an important feature of the V AR methodology is the use of the estimated residuals，called V AR innovations，in dynamic analysis. Unlike in conventional economic modelling，these V AR innovations are treated as an inherent part of the system.In order to analyse the impact of unanticipated policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables in a more convenient and comprehensive way，Sims (1980) proposed the use of impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs). IRFs and FEVDs are obtained from a moving average representation of the V AR model [Equations (1) and (2)] as shown belowY t=Constant+H t(l)U (3)AndH(l)=I+H t l+H2l (4)Where H is the coefficient matrix of the moving average representation which can be obtained by successive substitution in Equations (1) and (2). The elements of the H matrix trace the response over time of a variable i due to a unit shock given to variable j. In fact，these impulse response functions will provide the means to analyse the dynamic behaviour of the macroeconomic variables due to unanticipated shocks in the exogenous variables.Having derived the variance-covariance matrix from the moving-average representation，the FEVDs can be constructed.FEVDs represent the decomposition of forecast error variances and therefore give estimates of the contributions of distinct innovations to the variances. Thus，they can be interpreted as showing the portion of variance in the prediction for each variable in the system that is attributable to its own innovations and to shocks to other variables in the system.2.2. Vector error correction methodology Dickey and Fuller (1979) have emphasized the necessity of analysing the time-series properties of the variables before their relationship can be established. This is necessary because if the variables in question are nonstationary，then the estimated equations will yield spurious and misleading regression results. If the variables in a relationship are stationary then it is generally true that any linear combination of these variables is said to be cointegrated. Johansen’s test (1991，1995) is commonly used to test for cointegration between more than two time series. It also provides estimates of the possible long-term relationships，i.e. the parameters of the relationships that ensure cointegration. In this study，a vector error correction model (VECM) was also estimated.The VECM is basically a V AR system that builds on Johansen ' s test for cointegration and is usually referred to in the literatures as the restricted V AR.2.3. The estimated model and dataThe first step in estimating a V AR model is to make a choice of the macroeconomic variables that are essential for the analysis. Thevariables consist of one external shock measured by innovations in the price of Kuwaiti blend crude oil，three key macroeconomic variables，oil revenues，the consumer price index，(CPI) and the value of imports and three policy variables，Money Supply M2，government current expenditure and government development expenditure. The notations of these variables are as follow：OILP = Oil Price of Kuwaiti Blend CrudeOILR= Oil RevenueEXDEV = Government Development ExpenditureEXCON =Government Current ExpenditureCPI = Consumer Price IndexM2 =Money Demand (M2 Definition)IMPORTS = Value of Imports of Goods & ServicesQuarterly data for the period 1984：1-1998：4 were utilized in this study. The data for the period of the Iraqi occupation and the liberation of Kuwait were removed from the time series for obvious reasons (1990-1991). All data are from the Quarterly Monetary Statistics of the Central Bank of Kuwait and OPEC’s Monthly Bulletin. Similar to the previous studies，all the variables are expressed in logarithmic form. This can be partially justified by the fact that logarithmic forms tend to reduce the scale of the variables，which is a desirable quality when analysing the time-series properties of the variables before their relationship can be established. It is also a useful tool in providing estimates of the possible long-term relationships，i.e. the parameters of the relationships that ensure co-integration.A very important point that should be mentioned here is that the major shortcoming of the V AR approach is its lack of theoretical substance (Cooly and LeRoy，1985; Leamer，1985). In response to this criticism，Blanchard and Watson (1984) and Bernanke (1986) developed procedures，called the structural vector autoregression (SV AR) approach，which combines the features of the traditional structural modelling with those of the V AR methodology. The major advantage of using SV AR comes from the fact that standard V AR disturbances are generally characterized by contemporaneous correlations. In the presence of such correlations，the response of the system，indicated by IRFs，to an innovation in one of the variables is in fact the response to innovations in all those variables that are contemporaneously correlated with it. Similarly，the ability of FEVDs to quantify the relative contributions of specific sources of variation is confounded in the presence of this correlation. However，in standard V AR methodology this contemporaneous correlation is purged by the Cholesky orthogonalization procedure. For the most part，the Cholesky procedure implicitly assumes recursivity in the V AR model as it is estimated. Although theoretical considerations may help in determining this ordering and ex-post sensitivity analysis may further help provide insights regarding appropriate ordering，it remains largely at the discretion of the modeller.The following ordering of equations was adopted in this study; LOILP，LOILR，LEXEDEV，LEXCON，LCPI，LM2 andLIMPORTS. Generally speaking，this ordering reflects the fact that oil prices have an influence on oil revenues and then on all the other variables in the model. However，the behavior of oil prices and to some extent oil revenue are the least determined by other variables included in the model. This is quite a plausible assumption because the oil prices and hence oil revenues which consist of oil export revenues and net factor income from abroad are largely determined by the world market conditions rather than within the Kuwaiti Economy. Similarly，this ordering assumes that the government expenditure is largely determined by the level of oil revenues which again is quite a plausible assumption considering the dominant role of the public sector in driving the Kuwaiti economy. It is also sensible to assume that the value of imports is largely dependent on the level of government expenditure.Since the only variables included are those suggested by economic theory，and since theoretical considerations are important in selecting the ordering used here，the SV AR is not followed in this study. Nevertheless，the approach utilized here can be considered to be in the spirit of the SV AR approach.3. THE EMPIRICAL RESULTSFirst，the V AR technique requires stationary data，thus each series should be examined for stationarity. Table I gives the nonstationary test for all the time-series，using the conventional Dicky-Fuller test (DF)，its augmented version (ADF) and Phillips-Parron t-tests. Thesetests include a constant but no time trend，as recommended by Dickey and Fuller (1979).First，the reported t-statistics，when compared with the critical values obtained by Engle and Yoo (1987)，indicate that almost all the series，except CPI，M2 and IMPORTS，are stationary in the levels as shown by the DF，ADF and Phillips-Perron t-tests. These tests are reapplied after differencing all terms. The t-statistics on the lagged first-difference terms indicate that，for all series the null hypothesis is rejected，that is to say，all series are first differences stationary. However，in transforming a variable，a usual question arises as to whether one should use the variables in the system in levels or in differences. The overall guideline is that if there are k number of cointegrating vector among the variables used in the system，then V AR could be modelled with k stationary and n-k differences of original variables. But if all the variables in the system are nonstationary，using a V AR in levels is appropriate. On the other hand，estimating a V AR in the levels in the case of cointegration may lead to the omission of important constraints.In this context，Doan et al. (1984) noted that differencing a variable is ‘important ' in the case of Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modelling. Doan et al. also observed that it is not desirable to do so in V AR models. Fuller (1976) has also shown that differencing the data may not produce any gain so far as the ‘asymptotic efficiency’of the V AR is concerned ‘even if it is appropriate’.Moreover，Fuller has argued that differencing a variable ‘ throws information away ' while producing nosignificant gain. Thus，following Doan and Fuller’s argument，the level rather than the difference was utilized here.Second，the estimation of a V AR model requires the explicit choice of lag length in the equations of the model. Following Judge et al. (1988) and McMillin (1988)，Akaike’s AIC criterion is used to determine the lag length of the V AR model. The chosen lag length is one that minimizes the following：AIC(n)=Indet∑+(2d2n)/Twhere d is the number of variables in the model，T the sample size and∑n an estimate of the residuals’variance-covariance matrix ∑n obtained with a V AR (n). The maximum lag length is set at five quarters，considering the sample size and number of variables in the model. A maximum lag of greater than five quarters would reduce the degrees of freedom for estimation unacceptably. The result of employing this technique is summarized in Table II，which shows the corresponding AIC values. It can be seen that the AIC criterion is minimized for order 4. This suggests that，for this study，the V AR model should be of order 4.The next step is to estimate the V AR. The estimates along with their t-values are reported in Table III. Although the estimates of individual coefficients in V AR do not have a straightforward interpretation，a glance at the table generally shows that most of the t-values are significant (except for the CPI equation) and almost all of the equations have high R-squares. It also confirms the assertion that oil prices are exogenously determined than other variables included in themodel. However，oil revenue equation has a larger number of significant t-values than current expenditure and CPI.3.1. Variance decompositionTable IV presents the variance decomposition for the 10-quarters forecasts. Table IV shows that initially the variations in all of the variables are typically explained by the variables’ own trends. That is to say，at the beginning，the historical trend of each variable explains a large part of its own variations. For the most part，after ten quarters，about 60 per cent of the variance in oil prices is explained by the variable itself which is indicative of its exogenous nature. On the other hand，oil revenue explained about 93 per cent of its own variations at the first quarter and about 20 percent at the 10th quarter. Moreover，variation in oil prices account for about 45 per cent of the variation in oil revenues starting at the second quarter and through to the tenth. This shows that the causality is running from oil prices to oil revenues. Similar results are also evident for government development and current expenditures. Over a time period，about 15-17 per cent of the variance in government expenditures (development and current) is accounted for by the variations in the oil revenues.Furthermore，looking at the variance decomposition in the government expenditures (development and current) it is observed that following their own variations and oil revenues，the LCPI account for a notable part of the expenditures’ variance. The CPI accounts for onefifth of the current expenditure variations and about 15 per cent of the development expenditure. This is quite a plausible result and very apparent in the case of current expenditure.On the other hand，it is worth noting that the other variable that also picks up a significant part of the variations in government development expenditure is the value of imports. It accounts for about 16 per cent.Looking at the variance decomposition of M2，it is apparent that a noticeable part of its variance is explained by the variance in the CPI (about 33 per cent)，even more than its own variations. Also，oil prices and oil revenue，respectively，account for about 23 and 13 per cent of its variations. These results suggest an important role for money supply.Moreover，over the time period，the results show that 25-45 per cent of the variance in the value of imports is accounted for by the variation in oil revenues alone. Other variables included in the model that exert significant influence on the behaviour of imports are the two types of government expenditure but in particular，the development expenditure.3.2. Impulse responsesFigure 1 displays the Impulse Response Functions，which are essentially the dynamic multipliers .Since the primary interest is to see the response of major macroeconomic variables to the shocks given to the oil revenues and then to the government expenditure，only tentime periods are reported. An inspection of Figure 1 reveals that innovation in the oil prices and hence oil revenue has a similar effect on most of the variables in the model. Generally，most of these variables show an increase in the first quarter. This increase continues in the second and third quarter and then it gradually tapers off over the successive quarters. The only exceptions are the CPI and the value of imports and M2. This may be attributable to the shortcomings in the data set used to estimate the V AR. Recall that LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS were found to be non-stationary in the level.3.3. Estimation of the vector error correction model Since most of the variables included in the model pertain to stationary time series data except LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS，Johansen’s test (1991，1995) was applied to check for cointegrating vectors. The test indicated that there are four cointegrating vectors. Therefore，a vector error correction model is warranted. A vector error correction model is a V AR that build-in cointegration. Each co-integrating equation adds the parameters associated with the term involving levels of the series which needs to be added to each equation in the V AR. There is a sequence of nested models in this framework. The Johansen test procedure computes the likelihood ratio for each added co-integrating equation.On the basis of Johansen’s test，a Vector error correction model (VECM) was estimated. Four co-integrating equations were estimated using the same seven variables that were used in the V AR. However，since the results of estimating the VECM do not have a direct interpretation，they are not reported here.3.4. Variance decompositionThe variance decomposition results corresponding to the estimated VECM are presented in Table V. They are based on the same ordering as was used in the V AR. Comparing these results with the V AR shows that while the qualitative nature of macroeconomic linkages remains almost the same，the intensity of interaction between the variables is significantly higher when co-integration has been accounted for. For example，looking at the variance decomposition of the oil revenues，it shows that variables like government development and current expenditures have a substantially larger share when compared with the V AR results which increased from 14 per cent to about 40 percent. Similarly，the oil revenue has picked up a relatively larger proportion of the variation in the government current expenditure as well as the value of imports，especially during the first 4-6 quarters. However，the results indicate that variations in LCPI，LM2 and LIMPORTS，after 7-10 quarters，are mainly explained by changes in oil revenue alone.In particular，the variance decomposition of LM2 indicates that a significant part of its variance is explained by the variations in oil revenues (about 46 per cent after 10 quarters)，even more than its own variations. On the other hand，contrary to the result from V AR，LCPI accounts for only 7 per cent.Empirically speaking，the VECM model shows a relatively higher degree of statistical significance. Theoretically speaking，this is because it yields a closer interaction between macroeconomic variables than what the V AR indicated.3.5. Impulse response functionsFigure 2 displays the impulse response functions corresponding to the VECM model. Figure 2 indicates that innovations in the oil prices and oil revenue have a similar impact on the variables included in the model. However，similar to the V AR，most of the variables show an increase for the first few quarters then it gradually tapers off over the successive quarters with the exception of CPI，value of imports and LM2.Comparing these IRFs with those corresponding to the V AR version reveals that it takes a little longer for the multipliers in the VECM version to reach the level of the V AR version. While they generally reached their peak in the V AR version in about 6-7 quarters，it took them 8-9 quarters to reach almost the same level in the VECM version.4. CONCLUSIONS AND SOME POLICYIMPLICATIONSThe primary goal of this paper was to investigate how macroeconomic variables react to fluctuations in the world oil prices. Therefore，two different versions have been estimated，namely，the V AR and the VECM. While the qualitative nature of macroeconomiclinkages remains almost the same in the two models，the intensity of interaction between the variables is significantly higher when cointegration has been accounted for. Thus，quantitatively the two models give results that are significantly different from each other. However，empirically，the VECM gives better results because it yields a closer interaction between macroeconomic variables than by the V AR estimation. The results corresponding to the VECM are also closer to common sense.Nevertheless，the two versions estimated indicated a notable degree of interrelation between the major macroeconomic variables. The results have highlighted the causality running from oil prices towards oil revenues and then towards government expenditure and other variables. However，further assessment of the relationship between these variables，based on orthogonal innovations，lead us to believe that oil price shocks do impact macroeconomic variables in Kuwait and in particular，via government development and current expenditures.The evaluation of the decomposition of the variance of government expenditures suggests that oil revenue fluctuations account for a notable part especially in the case of development expenditure.This result is not surprising and is actually consistent with what is expected in a country in which the government is the sole owner of the main national income source，the oil and gas industry. Thus，government expenditure becomes the major determinant of the level of economic activity and the mechanism by which the government caneffect the circular flow of income within the economy.What is surprising，however，is that one would expect the impact of oil shocks to be much stronger and in particular，in the case of current government expenditure. However，this may be explained by the fact that over the last three decades，the government has accumulated capital reserve (surplus) which is regularly used to finance current government commitments，especially in times of low oil revenue.Moreover，the results also point out the significance of the CPI in explaining a notable part of the variations of both types of government expenditure. On the other hand，the variations in value of imports are mostly accounted for by oil revenue fluctuations and then by the fluctuation in government development expenditures. These results suggest that fiscal policy appears to be effective in Kuwait as the oil shocks impact government expenditure and then government expenditure accounts for a relatively considerable part of the CPI and the value of import variations.However，the results from VECM approach indicate that a significant part of LM2 variance is explained by the variance in oil revenue. It reaches about 46 per cent in the 10th quarter even more than its own variations.This exercise has shown a high degree of sensitivity of the results to specification of the variables，i.e. the theoretical structure underlying the V AR. Part of this sensitivity may be attributable to shortcomings in the data set. However，for the most part，it reflects the limitations of。
国际经济与贸易毕业论文中英文资料对照外文翻译文献综述
国际经济与贸易论文中英文资料对照外文翻译Research on the Approaches of the participation of China’sSMEs in International Trade under Financial CrisisAbstract Over the past 30 years, China's rapid growth of economy has been benefited from the tremendous contribution of SMEs,especially in foreign trade. However, the greatest impact of the financial crisis on China is on exports, and SMEs unavoidably is suffering hardest hit from it. Therefore, it is necessary to examine how SMEs participate in international trade under the new environment thereby contributing better and faster development to our economy. After the analysis of the development of SMEs in international trade, it has been drawn that the current trend of the overall development of SMEs in China is good, but there existing some internal problems, which will cause SMEs facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in the financial crisis .As a result, SMEs should take the approaches to participate in international trade, such as adhering to independent innovation to enhance the market competitiveness of products; taking the use of operating flexibility to seek for new market space; taking full advantage of new tools to explore international market space; paying attention to avoiding trade barriers, and actively responding to anti-dumping lawsuits;actively investing abroad to conduct transnational business, etc., by which SMEs will soon be out of difficulties and fundamentally improve the depth and level of participation in international tradeKey words: SME, Financial crisis, Participation in international trade1. Development of SMEs in International TradeSME is the important part of GDP throughout of the world, and China's rapid growth of economy also benefited from the tremendous contribution of SMEs over the past 30 years. Until June 2007, China's total number of SMEs has reached more than 4200 million, accounting for 99.8% of the total number of national enterprises, including more than 430 million small and medium enterprises registered by the business sector, and more than 3800 million self-employed households, which accounted for 76.6% of total employment, 64.5% of industrial output value, especially 68% of total merchandise exporting value.unavoidably is suffering hardest hit from it. Therefore, it is necessary to examine how SMEs participate in international trade under the new environment thereby contributing better and faster development to our economy. In recent years, more and more SMEs have been "going out" to expand overseas market, which has driven China's economy further to the market-oriented transition to large extent, and caused China's economy integrating with the world economy more and more closely.1.1 Growth of Exports of SMEsSince the reform and opening up, China has got sustained and rapid development of foreign trade, total value of exports increasing from 20.601 billion U.S. dollars of 1978 to 2.1738 trillion U.S. dollars of 2007 with average annual growth rate of 14.77%, so exports have become one of the most important factors to push national economy, obviously the exports growth rate of SMEs in China also remains high for a long time. Department of SMEs of National Development and Reform Commission chose some small and medium enterprises as samples for analysis and research to form “Research report of export-oriented SMEs” which has been registered in the State General Administration of Customs from 2003 to 2005, with total value of exports from the one million to 20 million U.S. dollars and annual growth rate of over 25%. The report showed that the value of China's exports in 2005 amounted to 761.999 billion U.S. dollars, and SMEs’ exports reached 518.159 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 68% of total exports. Since most of our export enterprises are SMEs, export orders index of PMI index can be selected to reflect the export situation of China's SMEs.( MENG Shan-shan, 2007)If the export orders index is above 50%, it will indicate the export expansion for a period of time, and opposite is true. From January 2005 onwards, the export orders index had maintained at above 50%, while with the gradual expansion of the financial crisis emerged in US. In 2007, the exports of SMEs have declined more and more quickly.As shown in Table1, in January 2008 the export orders index was 49.0%, which has dropped to below 50% for the first time since January 2005. Especially since from September 2008, PMI index began to decline, driving the export orders index to fall down in November 2008 to the lowest of 29%, which reflected China's external demand being further weakened. Although the index has rebounded gradually since then and rose to nearly 50% in April 2009, export enterprises in China especially SMEs are still being confronted with a severe test.luggage and other light industrial products, household plastic products and metal hardware, etc. are almost provided by SMEs. In recent years, SMEs are also actively involved in exports of high-tech and higher value-added products such as machinery equipment, electrical and electronic products, and chemical products, etc., and the proportion of SMEs in these three products has respectively amounted to 35%, 14.53% and 12.05%,rapidly growing trend being sustained. However, generally speaking, the structure of exporting goods of SMEs is still irrational, a long way for innovation and research to go. Most exporting products of SMEs are mainly resource-intensive and labor-intensive ones, therefore, the irrational structure of exporting products has brought a lot of obstacles to the survival and rapid development of SMEs. Though the state has strongly advocated "Improving trade with science and technology," but the improvement of exporting high-tech products was not obvious. According to statistics, the proportion for China's SMEs to invest in technology development is less than 40% of the national research funding, far below the level of 70% in developed countries. In particular, most private small and medium enterprises mainly rely on "imitation technology innovation" to develop, which involves small investment, short cycle, and quick pay back, but because of the ambiguity of property rights and low barriers to entry, enterprises do not have obvious advantages, and the additional value of the products produced by them is often low.1.3 Regional distribution of exporting SMEs and destination countries of exporting goodsExporting SMEs are mainly located along the coastal areas, from Bohai gulf centered by Shandong, and Liaoning,Yangtze River Delta centered by Zhejiang and Jiangsu, to the Pearl River Delta centered by Guangdong and Fujian,which have taken full advantage of the window status to and actively guide SMEs to take the road of export-oriented economy, thereby promoting the continuous development of the regional economy. Exporting destination countries mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan, Europe and other countries, which are the main trading partner of China for a long time, while the worst affected areas by the present financial crisis are Europe and America, which caused tremendous obstacles to the export of SMEs. So SMEs should actively explore new markets in order to avoid the risks of financial crisis. According to statistics of customs, in the first 8 months of 2009, the total value of bilateral trade between China and Brazil has amounted to 25.41 billion U.S. dollars, Brazil ranking as one of China's top 10 tradelevel of technology, irrational export structure, concentration of destination of exporting countries, and weak anti-risk ability. Therefore, SMEs of China are facing unprecedented challenges with the internal problems together with the high degree of harm of the financial crisis, but opportunities also existing side by side.2. Opportunities and Challenges Faced by SMEs in International Trade under the Financial Crisis2.1 Challenges2.1.1 Reduced demand for exports leading SMEs inadequate productionWith proliferation and the severe impact of the U.S. sub-prime crisis, the world economy further slows down. The sluggish consumption growth in the United States and Europe, and the weakened importing demand lead to marked drop in the exporting growth of SMEs especially in processing trade, and varying degrees of reduction in exporting orders. Statistics shows that China's exports to U.S. will decrease by 4% whenever the economic growth of U.S. Drops by l%. According to the statistics from General Administration of customs of China, in 2008, the total value of bilateral Sino-US trade amounted to 333.74 billion U.S. dollars, growing by 10.5% compared with 2007, which reaching the lowest growth rate during the seven years after entry into WTO. And the exporting value of China to the U.S. was 252.3 billion U.S. dollars at an increase rate of 8.4%, which dropping to single digit the first time in seven years. Facing the sharp reduction in orders, the unique countermeasure many companies can apply is to “Produce as orders”, i.e. Stopping production without orders, expectant. As the result of limited production, a large number of raw materials companies had purchased have been piled up in warehouses, together with many machinery and equipments, most SMEs have to maintaining a simple production in order to retain workers. In short, considerable number of enterprises is working under capacity. (Chen Lijin, 2009)2.1.2 Financing difficulties causing a serious shortage of working capitalMost SMEs are in urgent need of funds in the early stage of development and access to rapid growth period. However,due to financing difficulties, enterprises can not acquire the large amount of fund needed for development. Even with the current turmoil globalconsumer credit more difficult, as the result of the deficiency of the SMEs, small scale, poor ability to resist risks, short life and low level of credit Banks would provide more strict loan conditions to SMEs comparing with large enterprises for consideration of reducing credit risks which would cause the community reducing aggregate demand and the macro-economic environment deteriorate, and then SMEs would be lack in orders or even stop production or semi-cut-off.2.1.3 Economic efficiency decreasing significantlyAccording to the survey on nearly 2,000 key enterprises by Ministry of Commerce of China, during the first half of 2009, average export profit margin is only 1.5%, decreasing by 6.2%, part of exporting SMEs facing difficulties, which is mainly reflected in the following facts, Firstly, export growth rate of SMEs lowering as result of sharply reducing overseas orders; secondly, SMEs being at the edge of loss because declining cost of export swap rate can not keep up with the appreciation of exchange rate; thirdly, profit margin of exporting SMEs has been severely squeezed with the superposition effect of the changes of tax refund rates, exchange rates, interest rates, raw material prices, labor costs and the monetary policy environment. Since most exporting enterprises of China belong to processing SMEs, already in the end of industry value chain, with the weak ability of price transfer, it is difficult for enterprises to cover operational costs through increasing prices and profit margins of them are further squeezed. in buyer's market.2.2 OpportunitiesDespite enormous difficulties faced by SMEs, opportunities of development also come so that SMEs should seize these opportunities to continue development in the new platform.2.2.1 Opportunities of global industrial transferAfter the outbreak of the financial crisis, the pattern of the world economic development needs to be re-adjusted. From the perspective of the manufacturing sector, thecurrent global manufacturing industry mainly lies in North America, Europe and East Asia, and East Asia represented by Japan and South Korea. At present, China's manufacturing industry occupies an important position in the world, second-largest manufacturing great-power, accounting for 13.2% of that of the global value, but still far below the 20%the edge of a recession, so that the manufacturing industry in developed countries will undoubtedly accelerate the speed of transfer to developing countries to offset the adverse effects on local economy, which will help speed up the formation of China's "world factory" and bring a historic opportunity for the development of manufacturing industry. So far, despite a cyclical downturn of macroeconomic trends faced by China, the degree of the manufacturing sector still remains at a high level. Therefore, after the financial crisis of the industrial structure adjustment, China will strengthen its manufacturing center, and in the near future is likely to replace the U.S. as the world's largest manufacturing base, by which SMEs can get greater share of international trade in the global industrial transfer to drive China's economy out of shadow of the financial crisis.2.2.2 Opportunities of industrial upgradingWith the development of economic globalization, new industrial revolution and the core technologies is providing an opportunity of "reshuffle" to help backward countries achieve economic development by leaps and bounds through the development of new leading industries. The long-term development of export-oriented SMEs in China and the problems, (such as the low level of technology, mainly engaged in processing trade and low value-added products) focusing in the current financial crisis make China’s SMEs in an urgent need to conduct industrial upgrading in process. Thus, we must seize the current favorable opportunity to actively undertake the transfer of global industry and accelerate the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure to achieve sound and fast economic development, which is bound to provide unprecedented opportunities for the development and innovation of China's SMEs and new opportunities for China's industrial and product upgrading.2.2.3 Opportunities of favorable domestic policiesIn order to help SMEs cope with the financial crisis, in 2008,the central and local governments of China have adopted a series of policies and measures to secure steady and rapid development of SMEs, such as improving export tax rebate rate of some labor-intensive products, guiding the SMEs credit guarantee institutions to make greater effort to ease the difficulties of production and management for SMEs activating a package of over 4 trillion yuan construction plans to promote economic development. In addition, the commercial banks have also introduced new measures to support SMEs’ development, such as simplifying procedures of small business loans, separately arranging credittremendous opportunities for development. (NELSON K. H., 2003)Therefore, SMEs should actively take advantage of these policy supports and resource to create conditions for thegovernment loan assistance, further expand exports and strengthen their leading role in driving China's exports.3. Approac h Choices of SMEs’ Participation in International Trade3.1 Adhering to independent innovation to enhance the market competitiveness of productsIt is often ineffective for SMEs to survive only by the simple strategy to reduce prices owing to their small-scale, low level of technology and weak market capacity. Only if SMEs implement their own innovative strategies, take the way of "small but specialized, specialized but tertiary", manage to raise the added value of products, enhance market competitiveness and create differentiated products, would they get rid of difficulties to expand their own market space.Firstly, fully understand the importance of innovation. Many SMEs do not really recognize the importance of innovation and R & D, usually putting production and operation income in the first place while ignoring long-term development of enterprises. Therefore, it is much important to work out relationship between production and R & D. Secondly, orient the innovation of SMEs to market demand. R & D and innovation are aimed at better development of SMEs in the future market competition for them to occupy a dominant position to get more profit. Therefore, all innovation and R & D need to carry out according to the actual needs of the market.Thirdly, obtain innovative technologies outside SMEs through introduction, cooperation and mergers. SMEs can get access to innovative technologies after the correct assessment on the market, its capacity and partners through introduction, cooperation and mergers. (HUANG Bin FANG , 2009)3.2 Taking the use of operating flexibility to seek for new market spaceDue to less restriction of traditional economic system, SMEs are strongly interest-driven and market-oriented with flexibility and variability, which request SMEs own a large number of daring entrepreneurs who can take full advantage of their own strengths and market opportunities to develop their business with the absolute control overrequirements of the times to come into the market areas usually ignored by large enterprises, as which there existing characteristics as short product life cycle, low but stable profits, inadequate market capacity, and small quantity of production. At present, exporting goods of SMEs are mainly distributed in the United States and Europe, which were badly hit by the financial crisis, so SMEs should actively explore new markets, actively stepping out the shadow from the financial crisis.3.3 Taking full advantage of new tools to explore international market spaceDuring the global economic crisis, facing the situation of shrinking export markets, many SMEs have to tighten expenditure thereby changing the traditional sales methods in order to reduce marketing costs, which concerns that SMEs can acquire complete information quickly through e-commerce, greatly reducing the search costs and improving the efficiency of the search; find suppliers on line to reduce purchasing costs and improve the international market competitiveness of products and expand overseas market through searching purchasers on line. According to “2009 Annual Report on the development of Network e nterprises” issued by Alibaba, after 10 years of development, network enterprises of China have gradually realized the integration with the mainstream of socio-economic system. Till the first half of 2009, the amount of China's network enterprises has been expanded to 63 million, with the growing social impact. Thus, SMEs can make use of e-commerce to help enhance mutual exchanges, and to gain more effective means than traditional means of marketing channels to expand the volume of foreign trade.3.4 Paying attention to avoiding trade barriers, and actively responding to anti-dumping lawsuitsSince small differences of exporting goods of the majority of SMEs in China led to the situation of export order in chaos and dramatic price competition, when SMEs were expanding overseas rapidly, they have been exposed to an increasing number of barriers to trade, anti-dumping lawsuits and intellectual property litigation. At present, due to the impact of financial crisis on the global trade, countries are expected to protect their own economy by stimulating domestic demand or taking import substitution measures, while most exporting goods of China's SMEs are labor-intensive, low value-added and easily substitutable, so China's exporting goods ran into hardest hit by trade barriers. (Ruta Aidis, 2005)awareness of barriers to trade, and pay attention to the harm caused by trade barriers, on the one hand, avoiding trade barriers through a variety of ways and means to reduce the harm by trade barriers; on the other hand, emphasizing on the anti-dumping lawsuits to actively respond to them. And then, each SME should strengthen its integration to hedge their risks by the full use of the power of community organizations.3.5 Actively investing abroad to conduct transnational businessWith the expansion of globalization and the increasingly fierce international competition, China's SMEs expand overseas investment and international co-operation not only to avoid the above-mentioned barriers to trade, but also to get the interests of international competition and to serve as a useful complement to the expansion of exporting goods. At present, the main force of China's foreign investment is large enterprises, foreign investment of SMEs is still in its infancy. SMEs should actively carry out foreign investment, do develop cross-border operations with the use of their own advantages.4. ConclusionSMEs’ participation in international trade is a complicated systematic project, and can not be solved only by themselves.In face of financial crisis, SMEs should continuously improve themselves and seek for the space to survive and develop in the environment for changes. At the same time, the Government has the responsibility and obligation to provide the necessary support to help SMEs survive in difficulties. It is believable that SMEs will soon be out of difficulties and fundamentally improve the depth and level of participation in international trade with the efforts of both the government’s policy support and the creating ability of SMEs.References[1] Fenxi Mining. (2009). Study on the Payment Incentive Mechanism of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises under the Financial Crisis. Rural Economy. (Vol 8) (91-93). [2] HUANG, Binfang. (2009).Technological Achievement and the Sustainable Development of Regional Medium and Small Export Enterprises: Corresponding Renovating Countermeasures. Journal of International Trade. (Vol7)(106-108).[3] Lijin Chen. (2009). The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on China's Small & Medium-Sized Enterprises and Their Corresponding Strategies. REFORMATION & STRATEGY, 25(6): (85-87).[4] Shan-shan MENG & Hui-ying WANG. (2007). Solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises’ financial services of China. China-USA Business Review, Mar. Volume 6, No.3 (Serial No.45) (79-82).[5] NELSON K. H. TANG. (2003). Development of an Electronic business Planning Model for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises. International Journal of Logistics: Research and Applications, Vol. 6, No. 4, (289-304)[6] Ruta Aidis. (2005). Institutional Barriers to Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprise Operations in Transition Countries.Small Business Economics, 25: 305–318.金融危机下中国中小企业参与国际贸易的途径研究摘要在过去30年来，中国经济的快速增长一直得益于中小企业的巨大贡献，特别是中小企业在对外贸易中的贡献。
国际贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献
Challenges for China—the world’s largest antidumping targetBin JiangDoctoral Student in Business Administration,University of Texas at ArlingtonChina has become the world’sbiggest target for antidumping investigations. WTO statistics indicate that since the early 1990s Chinese export products have attracted around 500 investigations that have resulted in more than 350 antidumping measures. What are the reasons behind the proliferation of these investigations against Chinese export products? And how can the Chinese government and export producers deal with such cases against the country in the future?When a product is exported at a price lower than that normally charged for it in its home market, it is often assumed that the exporter is “dumping” the p roduct in the importing country. Antidumping (AD) is the legal framework countries use to place duties or import surcharges on products determined to have been dumped. The legal definitions are more precise, but basically the “Antidumping Agreement” of the World Trade Organization (WTO) allows governments to take action against dumping where there is a genuine (“material”) injury to the competing domestic industry. In order to take such action, the government must prove that dumping is taking place, calculate the extent of it (how much lower the export price is compared to the exporter’s home market price), and show that dumping is actually causing material injury.Why is China targeted?The reasons for the dramatic increase in antidumping cases against Chinese export products are both complex and diverse. Here we present and discuss four of these reasons.Reason 1: Most Chinese export producers compete on cost because local economic conditions make labor- or resource-intensive Chinese products extremely competitive in international markets. The country’s labor rates are approximately one-twentieth of those typically found in developed countries and one-tenth of those found in developing economies like Mexico and Korea. Moreover, China has an abundance of natural resources such as minerals and raw materials. These indigenous advantages allow Chinese manufacturers to produce traditionally labor- or resource-intensive commodities more economically than their counterparts in other countries. However, such products tend to be relatively homogeneous, affording their manufacturers scant competitive advantage and creating minimal entry barriers. If a particular product succeeds in an international market, other Chinese firms can decide relatively easily to enter that market by producing and exporting similar products. This, in turn, precipitates the sort of price cutting that is characteristic of intensely competitivemarkets, with the result that Chinese exporters find themselves competing against each other in cannibalistic price wars. Local government policies also motivate these internecine price wars.Reason 2: China is still treated as a non-market economy (NME). For NME dumping cases, the benchmark of “normal value” is calculated by using data from a surrogate country, but the WTO’s Antidumping Agreement does not specify any criteria for determining which surrogate country is appropriate. Prior to the economic reform movement, China’s centrally planned economic system dominated all industry sectors. Over the last decade or so, this system has gradually shifted away from the socialist model toward a free market model. Today, the Chinese economy lies somewhere between the two and contains many “bubbles of capital-ism”—defined by Neeley (1992) as sectors in a centrally planned economy in which reforms have progressed to the point that all prices and costs faced by the producers in that sector are determined by the market.However, many importing countries automatically treat Chinese export products as NME cases. In order to receive the market-economy case treatment, it is incumbent on Chinese producers to prove that inputs are bought and sold, and that labor is compensated at prevailing market rates. If they do not or cannot provide sufficient evidence that their products are made in the market-economy mode, the importing country will apply the surrogate country method to calculate the dumping margin of the products.Reason 3: Many Chinese exporters do not have the capability or experience to defend themselves against AD charges, but relinquishing the right of self-defense against the charges simply encourages other countries to launch more AD investigations against China.Another factor behind the large number of AD measures that have been enacted against Chinese exports is Chinese firms’ unwillingness to respond to dumping accusations and their general lack of knowledge about how to do so. Most Chinese export producers are medium or smallsized enterprises that lack the information and capability to deal with international trade disputes.Reason 4: Chinese exports have been growing rapidly, with low-priced “Made in China” commodities significantly affecting less competitive domestic firms in importing countries; this motivates the countries to use AD strategies to protect local industries and prevent successful Chinese products from grabbing market share.To minimize further economic losses from AD cases, the Chinese government and exporters will focus their efforts on activities designed to fix or ameliorate the issues that trigger the investigations. Here we offer some predictions about the nature of these activities.Prediction 1: Chinese industry associations will be strengthened and improved as soon as possible so that firms can agree on baseline export prices for products and end the cannibalistic price wars among Chinese provincial exporters. A result of the economic reforms in China is that the government has relinquished its control of imports and exports to local enterprises and thus no longer dictates uniform export prices. This has created an administrative vacuum for pricing in the Chinese export sector. Exporters realize that pricing unions must be established to fill this administrative vacuum and protect their own interests. Accordingly, industry associations will play a growing role in deciding and monitoring the price levels of exports.Prediction 2: If the pace of economic reform in China is maintained or accelerated, Chinese export producers will become increasingly more aggressive when confronted with AD investigations. Otherwise, responses will continue to be as passive as before. The Chinese government still controls the price-setting mechanism for some important products, such as gas, electricity, processed oil, and railway transportation. So an export producer that uses electricity as a significant input for its products has a relatively weak response to an AD charge because the government rather than the market determines the price on one of its key inputs. According to the agreement between China and the WTO, if a Chinese producer under AD investigation can clearly demonstrate that market economy conditions prevail in its industry with regard to the manufacture, production, and sale of that product, the importing WTO member shall use Chinese prices or costs for that industry to determine price comparability.Prediction 3: More and more Chinese export producers will actively respond to AD investigations. Adverse experiences have taught Chinese businesses that they should not back away from confrontation when they are accused of dumping because failing to contest or appeal cases brings almost inevitable penalties. They have also realized that the best way to minimize AD lawsuit losses is to make every effort not to trigger investigations in the first place. To successfully avoid them, a quick response mechanism composed of government departments, import and export chambers of commerce, local foreign trade authorities, and other relevant organizations must be established. Many Chinese exporters are already coordinating with their relevant industry associations to establish early warning AD systemsthat solve cases before they become lawsuits. Firms are also training themselves to follow market changes closely and identify potential AD cases early on. Because the Chinese textile industry is one of the largest targets on many countries’ dumping lists, the China Chamber of Commerce for Textiles has started to monitor the exports of member firms and maintains regular contact with foreign business offices, overseas law offices, and intermediary organizations to protect Chinese textile exports from AD investigations.Prediction 4: The Chinese government will make full use of its WTO membership to resolve dumping issues by using its legal rights or by instigating retaliatory actions. China has suffered many trade sanctions from Western countries because of the 1989 Tiananmen Square political crisis. Since then, China has been seeking a way to separate politics from foreign trade issues. Attaining WTO membership status on November 12, 2001, provided it with the opportunity to legitimately focus on the protection of its international trade without being accused of political chicanery. The indications are that China is already making use of its new WTO member status. For example, during the four years immediately preceding its entry into the WTO, the government initiated only 11 AD investigations against foreign imports. However, during the first six months following its election to the WTO, China initiated eight investigations. In March 2002, when the US decided to impose an 8 to 30 percent tariff on Chinese imported steel products, China quickly retaliated by imposing a 24 percent additional tariff on US soybean oil.According to Prusa (1999), in recent years new AD users have accounted for half the overall world total of these investigations. In fact, many of the heaviest accusers are countries that did not even have an AD statute a decade ago. It is possible these countries believe that precipitating AD investigations is the only way to defend themselves against other countries using the same process against them. China may have already adopted this perspective. The reasons why Chinese exports are so frequently involved in antidumping cases are quite diverse. The cost leadership strategy mandated by indigenous competitive advantages, cannibalistic price wars between provincial exporters, the treatment of investigations as NME cases, the unwillingness and lack of competency in responding to dumping accusations, and the ever increasing trade friction accompanying the surges in global commerce that have occurred over the last decade or so all help explain why China has been so targeted. It will not be easy to alter these factors in the short term. Moreover, China will still be habitually treated as an NME during the first 15 years of its WTO membership, which may even cause the number of AD cases against it to rise. To avoid further losses, Chinese enterprises and theChinese government will change their behaviors as follows: exporters will work closely with industry associations to avoid price wars; they will respond to AD investigations more actively than in the past; and the government will gradually transfer its role in the economy from market player to market watchdog and will act more aggressively to protect its foreign trade interests than it has been able to do in the past. In summary, although antidumping cases against Chinese exports may keep increasing in the foreseeable future, China will learn to fight back more aggressively and effectively.........忽略此处.......。
国贸专业 外文文献 外文翻译 英文文献 不对外国企业抱任何敌意
原稿IntroductionITC: Not foreign enterprises hold any hostility- Vice-Chairman of the U.S. International Trade Commission(ITC)Deanna Tanner, Okun InterviewForeign Tade：For Chinese companies, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is still relatively unknown. Economic and trade fields, known for Chinese enterprises, the Ministry of Commerce. ITC What are the differences in their functions? Deanna Tanner Okun：States International Trade Commission (ITC) is a set up by Congress, quasi-judicial federal agency with extensive powers to deal with trade-related issues.In the U.S., has the power institutions dealing with trade-related matters in addition to the ITC the U.S. Commerce Department. Perform their duties in the course of the investigation of the anti-dumping and intellectual property rights infringement, the display can.In economy and trade, specifically, the duties of the U.S. Department of Commerce finds that constitute dumping and dumping margin, ITC is mainly survey dumping to the detriment of domestic firms in the United States. In addition .ITC is a quasi-judicial body, independent of the Government, specialized agencies, and trade for the U.S. government to provide advice and statistics. To take measures to maintain the general market relations in the United States for unfair trade practices.That is, the ITC's main functions include three parts. Management of U.S. trade remedy laws fair and objective manner; tariffs, international trade and competition issues to the President, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and Congress to provide independent, high-quality information and support; maintaining the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule. Based on the above-mentioned functions .ITC six members designated by the President and the Senate recognized the addition was designated to fill the unexpired vacancy, the appointment term of nine years. The term of office by the Constitution, theprovisions of the staggered calculated. Every 18 months, have different members have retired. Members of the office for more than five years may not again be specified. No more than three members from the same political party. Chairman and Vice-Chairman appointed by the president for a term of the statutory two years. The President shall not former President from the same political party. The President shall appoint two members from the same political party as Chair and Vice-Chairman.Foreign Tade：Then, the ITC is how to perform its functions for national service? Deanna Tanner Okun：ITC are five ways to carry out its functions to serve the country: - Import injury investigation, including determining the import of some kind of unfair trade (anti-dumping or countervailing duty investigations) and the increase in imports (global and bilateral security measures for the investigation) to cause damage or a threat of material injury to U.S. industry.- IP-related imports of investigation, including the guide to sex, to obey the president's objections against certain unfair practices in the import trade, such as patent or trademark infringement.- Investigation procedures, including an objective analysis of the major trade-related issues; to predict the economic impact of trade agreements; analysis of the specific competition in the industry, and to find within the industry and external economic factors that affect the industry competitive.- Trade information services to the ITC, Congress and the implementing agencies and the public delivery of reliable and timely information and analysis of data through this service. - Trade policy support .ITC staff to provide direct technical support to the USTR, Congressional committees, inter-departmental committee, and the U.S. delegation in multilateral trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Authorization based on field surveys .ITC to exercise the powers of the extensive investigation of trade-related issues.The right to exercise judgment, the ITC to make a decision in respect of certain unfair trade practices. Through research .ITC also become the source of a national trade data collectionand analysis, and information and analysis available to the implementing agencies and Congress to help them to specify and develop U.S. trade policy.Foreign Tade：Articles understand, import injury investigation, anti-dumping / countervailing duty investigations. The five-year (sunset) review of global security measures to investigate, and IP-related imports investigation the ITC often conducted several major investigations. Could you talk about the difference between them?Deanna Tanner Okun：Import Injury Investigation: ITC reserves the right to decide based on whether the U.S. trade law imported products cause damage to related industries for the United States, or a threat of injury. ITC's injury investigation into the 13 anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations .And in accordance with Chapter VII of the 1930 Tariff Act five-year (sunset) review; global security measures under the 1974 Trade Act (Disclaimer), Chinese security measures market disruption investigation; According to the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA), bilateral security measures to investigate the implementation of Act 302; and a survey conducted in accordance with section 22 of the agricultural Adjustment Act.Members according to the facts recorded in the relevant legal requirements and each survey to survey into El damage a decision on its view into El damage survey announced. And subject to judicial review.In each investigation, the ITC and investigation team (including an oversight investigator of an investigator, an accountant or auditor. An economist, a business analyst and a lawyer) produced a complete the survey of the domestic industry competitive market conditions report .Committee members and the research team using a variety of fact gathering techniques, including (but are not limited to) industry-specific questionnaires, telephone interviews, factory visits, technical and market experts advice, statements by the parties, the public hearing, and to review the industry and market literature.In each survey, the survey team to collect and analyze a wide range of data, then an objective and comprehensive report submitted to the ITC. The data in the report include (but are not limited to) industry production capacity, actual production, capacity utilization,domestic El goods, stocks, imports, the United States and foreign supplier by the share of U.S. market share, labor conditions, working hours, productivity, wages, paid total compensation, unit labor cost, pricing, distribution channels, and related industries in the United States financial data .Some foreign production of related products industry data collection and analysis.ITC members and officials of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. customs service, survey clients and their lawyers, the person in charge of the U.S. production company, importer, product buyers such as working together in the course of the investigation into El damage. In addition, members of Congress often through the hearing participating damage to their views and perspectives to the survey report. In 2003.Members of Congress on the importation matters related to the investigation of l damage appeared 51 times in the ITC. Second, the anti-dumping / countervailing duty investigations and five-year (sunset) review: 1930 under Chapter VII of the Tariff Act of the U.S. industry in the U.S. market at less than fair value into 13 sales (dumping) or benefit from foreign government subsidies (subsidies) to request the Government for relief .Dumping and subsidies are considered to be unfair trade practices.Under the law, the U.S. Department of Commerce decided to dump or subsidies exist, if it exists, the amount of dumping and subsidies. ITC decided to dumping or subsidies for imported products is the U.S. industry to cause substantial damage or substantial damage to the threat. If the two bodies on their respective problems have to give a positive final ruling, the Commerce Department will dump released the command of anti-dumping duty order or subsidies countervailing duties. In the five years after the promulgation of the Commerce Department should cancel the anti-dumping or countervailing duty imposed order .Or termination of the moratorium, unless the Commerce Department that the elimination of tariffs imposed order or termination of the moratorium could lead to the continuation or resumption of dumping or subsidies .ITC at the same time that the elimination of tariffs imposed order or termination of dumping or subsidies to suspend the agreement in the reasonably foreseeable period of time is likely to continue or start again.In 2003.41 under Chapter VII of the request is put forward .Most of which are dumping (41, 35). These requests include a wide range of products, Such as malleable iron pipe fittings, memory, memory module, refined brown aluminum oxide, ceramic radio cylindrical insulator, prestressed cement Wire Rope, fluorescent pale rust inhibitors, water magnetic cut-outs, Color television receivers, Wax / resin transfer zone, Ethylene retail bag, Trahydrofurfuryl alcohol ,Hot coat hanger, Electrolytic manganese dioxide, Transparent rectangular tube. ITC has also completed a 2002 'cases.Third, the global security measures survey: According to the 1974 Trade Act 201, imported products cause serious harm or serious threat of injury, the domestic industry can be brought to the ITC to reduce imports.201 did not like the anti-dumping / countervailing duty provisions of the Tariff Act, as the requirements to identify the existence of unfair trade behavior. If the ITC 201 investigation, a positive decision, it will recommend to the President to reduce imports to compensate for the damage, easy to adjust the domestic industry against import competition .The president ultimately decide whether the magnitude of the relief, and relief.Among them, 2003, the ITC proposed three measures against China. They include steel pipe hangers, brake drums and rotary axis, and an extension of the iron sprinklers. These are based on U.S. China Relations Act 2000 will be 421 to join the Trade Act of 1974.The simultaneous implementation of China's accession to the terms of the bilateral security measures for the Sino-US agreement in the WTO transition period, it is also known as safety measures investigation. According to the terms of the ITC found that imports to the United States, China products reach the number listed to increase or cause or threat of market disruption related and similar competitive products to meet the conditions set out, domestic producers get relief .Global security measures to investigate, if the ITC to make a positive decision, it will propose to the President relief proposal .The President made a final decision on whether to provide relief to the American industry, if provided, determine the types and duration of relief.Fourth, intellectual property-related imports investigation: According to the 1930 Tariff Act 337, the ITC conducted a survey of some of the inequitable conduct raised the import trade.The majority of complaints under the clause amounts patent or trademark infringement cases.Foreign Tade：In recent years .Chinese enterprises in the United States repeatedly subjected to anti-dumping and intellectual property investigations, whether to talk with Chinese enterprises, the investigation?Deanna Tanner Okun：The 337 program surveys typically include complex factual and legal decisions. In 2003.ITC has proposed three measures against China: Meanwhile, the number of 337 investigations is increasing and has started 111 investigations, 42 involve the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Only in 2005 to the present .Initiate an investigation of 11 in the five involved in the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong; Types of 337 procedures to investigate products and intellectual property very extensive. About 41 from the 2003 survey of 337 procedures a third of it comes to high-tech products in the field, especially in the field of computers and communications, such as high-speed wireless LAN system, For storage .Management and data protection hardware and software systems, recordable and rewritable disc, a variety of memory core Sheets and related integrated circuit devices, and semiconductor mask works. Part of the investigation involving machinery, pharmaceutical, manufacturing microelectronic devices and equipment used for the transport and sorting parcels, the complex technology of the call device, such as garage door openers. In addition some of the year 337 investigation procedures involving bearings for industrial use, computer game systems, electronic education equipment, electronic security equipment as the facilities of toilet and kitchen wall, alkaline batteries, home vacuum packaging equipment, etc.. According to statistics, from 1998 to the present, 334 anti-dumping investigations, China accounted for 47 involving agricultural products, manufactured goods, and other fields.In 2003.A total of 41 cases of an ongoing investigation and associated procedures cases, from 21 in 2003.Only seven of the survey conducted in 2003 has nothing to do with thepatent infringement, one of which is due to the abuse of trade secrets and other non-patent unfair means, from trademarks and trade dress infringement and unfair to other non-patent means.Foreign Tade：Some people think that Section 337 violates the WTO rules on national treatment, how do you look at this issue?Deanna Tanner Okun：I can not answer this with political issues, but I personally think that 337 or more transparent,Its procedural framework is pretty fair, if there are errors, you can appeal to the courts to correct. In fact, in the 337 investigation has been launched, only 16% of the final decisionto constitute infringement, the ratio is not too high.Foreign Tade：It is reported that the U.S. domestic companies, drew ITC Section 337 investigations is no charge .Well, this may lead to sponsored enterprises due to the low cost and abuse complaint?Deanna Tanner Okun：Indeed, as you said, the ITC's investigation is no charge for no cost, but that does not mean to initiate enterprisesOr low cost. In the U.S., the fees of court litigation for $ 150, seemingly not high, attorney fees, however, is quite expensive .In fact, we found that the initiator of the cost of not less than the cost of the respondent to The same time, the abuse complaint by administrative law, therefore, generally will not abuse complaint behavior.Foreign Tade：ITC members have to vote if there are subjective factors?Work ITC how to avoid the subjective domestic trade protection tendency?Deanna Tanner Okun：In particular, I want to emphasize here is your question in the "external factors" .First, the prosecution of U.S. companies is their right, whether the respondent is also charged with enterprise rights .ITC did, just under the existing law to the specific investigation and ruling.Secondly, the ITC is an independent body on external factors does not exist, it asked all businesses to be assured, the ITC is a completely non-partisan, independent body.In theUnited States, the ITC is not affiliated with any administrative department of the United States.Foreign Tade：Specifically, China should be how to deal with anti-dumping and 337 investigations?Deanna Tanner Okun: This is why we came to China to highlight the one. I personally think that the Chinese enterprises, the first is to go out. Respond actively. Seize a 50% chance of success . The occasion of the investigation in the case of reconciliation is very large, for example, there have been three Chinese tractor companies as defendants .Which the two responding, and finally reached a settlement, only slightly changed the appearance of color on the line, so, the respondent is the first step is very important. Second is to take the correct and specific measures .I personally recommend that Chinese enterprises should apply for a patent to own the intellectual property rights, but also by way of thecross-license with each other to reach complementary and prosecution agreement, to prevent itself subject to appropriate investigation.In addition, the receipt of the initial questionnaire, the companies can find the appropriate lawyer to issue an infringement to prove, so that even losing in the final award as not to constitute malicious infringement of evidence, the loss will be much smaller.译文介绍ITC：不对外国企业抱任何敌意——美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)副主席Deanna Tanner Okun(迪安娜·蒂娜·奥昆)访谈Foreign Tade：对于中国企业来说，美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)还是比较陌生的。
国际贸易论文中英文外文翻译文献
中英文外文翻译文献进口玩具的安全，消费者保护和世界贸易组织的技术贸易壁垒协定：前景，进展和问题全球贸易、人权和进口的安全人类和动物受进口产品感染的风险不应该被过分夸大。
受污染的二乙二醇感冒药导致100多人死亡，几十人得病，其中多达21人死亡可能与肝素有关。
肝素是一种流行的抗凝剂，它广泛应用于透析和心脏手术中，以达到延缓血液凝块的目的。
据美国食品与药品监督管理局(FDA)调查所知，这个主要的抗血凝药物包含一个伪造成份，美国食品与药品监督管理局采用先进的磁场核磁共振成像的测试来让它模拟真正的药物。
据了解，美国食品及药品监督管理局发现多达20%的产品的活跃成分是假的。
在一个快速全球化的世界中，各国应如何确保进口产品的安全呢？世贸组织成员国能单方面对玩具的制定特点或相关的工艺流程及生产方法采用新条例吗？这些问题是由技术法规和国际贸易法的相关准则以及人权法而产生的。
一方面,技术法规和标准既可以作为一种贸易壁垒，同时对消费者产品偏好、质量期望和价格选择产生负面影响。
技术法规和标准中有关玩具质量和安全的规定即这些规定并没有歧视性的“法理”或“事实”，但这些标准和法规在国际之间的差异也有可能造成贸易障碍。
假定组成世界贸易组织的153个成员决定创造他们自己的玩具安全法规及标准，对于一个中国玩具制造商来说，他有可能就得面对153种法规，并且还要遵守这些法规及标准，而这样会导致他失去规模经济。
在另一方面, 技术法规和标准又让人们越来越认识到健康与安全条例是政府责任的核心。
各国政府有主权权利和责任来保护他们的公民免受伤害。
A/RES/54/165号决议在1999年通过了，联合国大会指出：“虽然世界趋于全球化，但一个国家所扮演的角色有可能影响人权，促进和保护所有人权是国家的首要责任”。
A/RES/54/165号决议的第15条中也强调：“分析全球化对充分享有各项人权的影响是必要的”。
其第16条是关于儿童的健康和安全，联合国公约关于儿童权利（CRC）的第3条中规定：“关于儿童的一切行动，不论是由公私社会福利机构、法院、行政当局或立法机构执行，均应以儿童的最大利益为一种首要考虑。
国际经济与贸易 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 国际海运业_国际产业的国际规则
INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING:GLOBAL REGULATION FOR A GLOBAL INDUSTRYSource:[1]Krishna Prasad,Changing Role of Ship-Brokers,Journal of Information Technology,2004[2]European Community,Overview of the International CommercialShipbuilding Industry,First Marine International Limited.2003[3]ICS,IMO,International shipping:Global Regulation For a GlobalIndustry,International Chamber of Shipping,2007Conclusions from Modal Workshop 4at the 2009 International Transport ForumStatement by the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and theInternational Maritime Organization (IMO)The following statement reflects the discussion during Modal Workshop 4, International Shipping: Global Regulation for a Global Industry, which took place at the 2009 International Transport Forum in Leipzig, Germany, on 27 May 2009.Following several years of incredibly buoyant shipping markets, for many trades the best in living memory, much of the international shipping industry has fallen prey to the worldwide economic downturn. Shipping is inherently the servant of the economy, so the contraction in trade, following the beginning of the ‘credit crunch’ in late 2008, has translated into a dramatic and abrupt reduction in demand for shipping.Initially worst hurt were the containership trades. By the spring of 2009 some 10% of the fleet was already laid up, much of it too modern and expensive to go to recycling yards. However, the dry bulk trades have also been severelyaffected, particularly by the reduction in demand for raw materials from China, with spot market freight rates for some bulk carriers being a fraction of the peak prices achieved in 2008. By April 2009, rates for crude, product and chemical tankers had also fallen very sharply. In general most shipping markets present a rather bleak picture.A major concern of ICS national shipowners’ associations therefore is to discourage governments from responding to the crisis with protectionist measures, which will only damage world trade further. More particularly,governments must avoid measures that restrict fair and open access to shipping markets. Although most shipping today enjoys relatively liberalised trading conditions compared to the days of national cargo reservation in the 1980s,shipping is unusual in that it is one of the few major industries not yet covered by a global multilateral trade agreement. However, the prospect of a new agreement under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) looks increasingly uncertain. The industry must therefore be extremely vigilant inreacting to any moves towards protectionism in maritime trades, especiallythose using safety and security as a pretext.The shipping industry does not expect special treatment, or the billions of dollars of support being granted by some governments to the likes of the banking and automobile industries. However, to operate competitively and efficiently in very difficult circumstances, shipping requires the maintenance of a regulatory ‘level playing field’, and continuation of the certainty no w provided by the tonnage tax regimes that apply to shipowners in many countries.Shipping is notoriously volatile, and its more experienced practitioners are familiar with the cyclical boom and bust nature of maritime freight rates.However, the contraction resulting from the general global downturn could well be exacerbated by the large number of new buildings due to come into service during the next few years, notwithstanding efforts by many shipowners to cancel or renegotiate contracts. Many of these ships were ordered at high prices at the top of the market.In the face of this two-way pressure, there is likely to be a considerable increase in the number of older vessels that will be sent for dismantling and recycling. In view of the adoption, in May 2009, of a new IMO Convention to address concerns about working and environmental conditions in ship recycling yards, the need for governments to identify facilities that are acceptable for use will become all the more pressing.As the IMO Secretary-General has forcefully identified, financial pressures on the industry must not be allowed to result in any reduction in standards. Much has been achieved in the last 20 years with regard to safety and environmental performance, and no one is suggesting a moratorium on new regulations that genuinely improve safety, which is always the industry’s overriding priority. However, governments need to understand that any immediate regulatory and policy decisions they take must avoid impacting negatively on shipping as it struggles to deal with the currenteconomic situation.Notwithstanding the current gloom and doom, the longer term outlook for the industry remains very good. The world’s population continues to expand, and emerging economies will continue to increase their requirements for the goods and raw materials that shipping transports so safely and efficiently. In the longer term, provided the politicians make sensible decisions, the fact that shipping is the most fuel efficient and carbon friendly form of commercial transport should work in favour of an even greater proportion of world trade being carried by sea.It is to be hoped that Ministers at the International Transport Forum willdeliver a strong statement in support of the maintenance of open shipping markets, and, more generally, promote an early conclusion of the WTO negotiations for a new global trade agreement.China has seen order intake rise steadily over the past five years, achieving a share of 13% by 2002. This has been in line with the plans of central government to develop the industry, with major investment in recent years. However, in terms of market share the industry is still well behind the two leaders in Japan and South Korea. Chinese builders focus in particular on tankers and bulk carriers to gain volume but participate in most market sectors apart from the LNG market. China expects to achieve the capability to build LNG carriers in the near future. It is also only recently that China has developed the capability to build large tankers (aframax and above) and the construction of a greater share of the VLCC market is an aim of the industry. A greater share of the container sector, in particular the large ship sector, is also a goal of the industry. To date container ship construction has been restricted to smaller ships only.The EU industry has seen order intake fall significantly in recent years, in particular due to a downturn in the ordering of cruise ships and loss of share of the container market. Market share in the EU industry is now down to 7%. EU shipyards have lost almost all share of the bulk carrier sector and most of the tanker sector. Container ship market share, the last volume sector in which EU yards have a foothold, has also fallen over the past five years. Increasing reliance has been placed on the passenger and specialised sectors, with shipyards taking a 54% share of ferry orders in 2002 and almost all cruise ship orders. Having said this, order volume for passenger ships was relatively low in 2002 and order intake into EUshipyards was correspondingly low.In effect the industry in the EU has had to retrench into a small number of market niches in recen years, predominantly small ships, passenger ships and specialised ships. The cruise market maintained some volume up to 2001 but with a sharp fall in order intake in that sector the industry as a whole has seen order intake and market share plummet.Japan has seen a steady order intake in recent years, with the market lead alternating with South Korea according to shifts in market and economic conditions. Japan had a very strong market lead in 2002. Japanese shipbuilding’s main product is bulk carriers for the home market, making up almost 40% of all orders taken in 2002. Oil and chemical tankers and gas carriers also make up a significant portion of the industry’s business. Japanese shipbuilding has lost a considerable share of the container ship market to South Korea.South Korea experienced a significant peak of order intake in 2000 and a relatively steady level in other years. South Korean shipyards took over 50% of the container ship market in 2002, over 40% of the oil tanker market and significant shares of the gas and chemical tanker markets. The industry has tried to exit the bulk carrier sector because of low value, although it has been forced to take orders recently to maintain production volume.South Korean builders have been trying to pursue a strategy to address the higher value sectors to maximise profitability, in particular the market for LNG carriers. The scope to do this is limited in relation to the volume of work needed to keep the industry in South Korea busy. The product focus tables included in appendix 3 to this report indicate that whilst there was a significant intake of LNG carriers in 2001, ordinarily this sector makes up less than 10% of the total order intake into South Korea. Korean builders have yet to penetrate the passenger ship sector to any significant degree, this being the other high added value sector that the yards may try to pursue. In a typical year up to around 80% of orders will be from the main bulk cargo sectors, tankers, bulk carriers and container ships.Shipbrokers are intermediaries between the two parties to a contract, whether they are Shipowners and Charterers or buyers and sellers. They may act for one principal and occasionally as the sole broker between the two contractingparties.They will be involved in most aspects of a contract, including circulation of tonnage and business to potential clients, negotiating the main terms of the fixture or sale, finalising the details of the contract and following the contract through toits conclusion. With few exceptions, virtually all second-hand ship purchases are conducted through a Shipbroker. The decision to buy or sell a vessel can have far reaching consequences for an owner in terms of profitability and market position. Shipbrokers are uniquely positioned to offer clients information on market activity that might not otherwise be available. Whilst such information is free to clients, Shipbrokers must earn their living by concluding sales or fixtures. The matter of trust between Shipbrokers and their clients is absolutely paramount and most Owners and Charterers have good relationships with their Brokers which have taken a considerable time to develop. Through their worldwide network of contacts Shipbrokers have a vast pool of information that is available to their clients on a confidential and competent basis.Ship brokering, as a profession, has been in vogue since the early days of commercial shipping. Initially the owner of the ship was also the trader – or in other words, the trader was the owner of the ship. He bought goods in one place, carried the goods in his ship to another place and sold it there. As the trade evolved, the trading activity and the shipping activity were separated; the ship owner merely carried cargo from the trader or various traders in one location to another location and handed it over to the buyers. With the evolution in trade specialization in shipping, the role of ship-brokers became more pronounced. The shipbroker was the intermediary who would find ships for the merchants; and cargoes for the ship owners who often traveled with the ship.The modern day shipping market comprises of, on one side, ship-owners with varying fleet sizes and operators, who though do not own ships but never the less control the commercial operations of ships and on the other side,charterers of varying sizes who control different cargoes – large and small lots; theship-broker as an intermediary between the owners and the Charterers. The primary role of the shipbroker remains to be‘finding ships for cargoes and cargoes for ships’ but modern day communication and computing tools are redefining the finer aspects of Shipbroking.This Paper looks at the role of the shipbrokers in the past, the impact of technology in the profession of ship brokering and the changing role of shipbrokers. Thedry-cargo market is taken for analysis as it is the least standardized shipping market – and perhaps one of the most complicated in terms of practices and commercial operations.This Paper looks at the role of the shipbrokers in the past, the impact of technology in the profession of ship brokering and the changing role of shipbrokers. Thedry-cargo market is taken for analysis as it is the least standardized shipping market – and perhaps one of the most complicated in terms of practices and commercial operations.SHIPBROKINGShipping is an international business. A person dealing with ship-chartering has to work with the conditions prevailing day by day in the international freight market.A large number of customs and rules of the trade have been established through the years all over the world. These rules and ethics are scrupulously followed by the practitioners worldwide else it is not possible to do business worth millions of dollars with parties across the world at short notice.Chartering work is essentially a form of exchange of information. It is a business where the right information at the right moment is essential to be successful. Everyone involved in chartering acts, to a large extent, as a collector, judge and distributor of information. Ship broking can be seen as an information network; a network of people as well as technology that facilitates information exchanges. A great deal of the flow of information consists of details on fixtures all over the world. "Making a fixture" means that the parties interested in a specific sea transport contract reach an agreement through negotiations.The parties involved in a chartering deal are, on the one hand, someone who owns, controls or operates a ship (as an owner, time chartered owner or disponent owner).We shall call him Owner for simplicity. On the other hand, there are persons who require some cargo to be carried by sea transport between two destinations. Normally (but not always) he is the cargo owner. Let us call him charterer. Charterer can act as an owner when he controls the tonnage. There can be various aspects as roles get redefined or can get complex.Ship-brokers normally specialize in a specific segment of the market; be it dry cargo, chemical, passenger vessels, RORO vessels etc. The various marketsegments have their own peculiarities and the market behavior is also varied –forcing the practitioners to adopt specializations.Ship-broking, particularly that of a competitive broker is an opportunity based business. As and when opportunities for new business crop up, the broker has to be on his toes to help conclude the deal. The importance of time is all the more important these days when certain segments of the market see highly volatile fluctuations.The charterers value the brokers’ information, knowledge, skills for negotiation as well as his perception of the market. As in other businesses, value added services generate goodwill and brokers who offer such services stand out among other ordinary ones.Chartering MethodologyThe chartering methodology is in the process of transformation as a result of the revolutionizing changes brought in by digital communication and computing power.Instead of a short list of close contacts, every broker now has hundreds of contacts. Each and every business is flashed to these contacts many times – sometimes more than once a day. This is in contrast to the olden days when, due the high cost of telex communication, businesses were given only to a few contacts.Even after commencement of the negotiation, it is not uncommon for owners (or Charterers) to look at other businesses. They may leave a negotiation half way through and choose to work another business. In the past, once the owner (or charterer) chose a particular business and started negotiations they tried to conclude it. Only if the chosen business fails do they go for another. One could say that the negotiations are no longer focused.The primary function of a shipbroker representing a ship-owner is to find employment for the ships under the control of his principal (the ship-owner or shipoperator).In the case of a ship broker representing a cargo interest, theship-brokers role is to find suitable ships for the cargo which his principal (the charterer) wants to transport. This function requires an in depth knowledge of ship and cargoes, information about Ports, methods of loading and discharging ofvarious cargoes, weather patterns,demand and supply of ships and so forth.With the advent of digital communication and powerful computing techniques ship- brokers’ network has grown far and wide. Each ship broker gets cargo and ship position from a hundred sources or so – over a thousand emails a day. Each broker circulates his prospective businesses – ships looking for cargoes or cargoes looking for suitable ships- to his contacts. Some of these are re-circulated again and again.Managing the vast number of email messages received by a ship broker everyday is a challenge in itself. It may appear that simple solutions like filters, ‘rules’ etc can be used to minimize the inflow of messages. But this may not an easy task considering the fact that almost every message with cargo and ship information is a source of information for the shipbroker. It shows the state of the market in terms of demand and supply of ship. Activating filters often sends many of the wanted messages to the ‘junk’ folder.In the olden times the shipbroker had rather limited reach. Each broker had a few contacts with whom he had interacted regularly using telex as the primary mode ofcommunication. Telex being expensive and less user friendly (relatively), the interaction was limited to bare essentials. Telephone, the other communication method available those days was prohibitively expensive and unreliable when used for long distance contacts. ‘Urgent’ and ‘Lightning’ calls were not connected for hours and hours.As said earlier, shipbrokers track the market activity closely. It is this information that is used by many owners and Charterers to formulate their business strategies.Large ship brokering houses have set up elaborate research outfits. These research units constantly collect data on a wide range of parameters and analyze them. Analytical reports are given to their clients and associates on a regular basis. The Baltic Exchange and some leading ship brokers publishes information on fixtures (contracts) concluded. They also publish indices on various segments of the market.The broker is also expected to advise on the possible trends of rates or availability of cargoes or ships etc. For example, if demand for iron ore increases, the shipsavailable for carriage of grain may drop and so much so, the grain freight rates may shoot up. Is it better to go in for long term time charter or prefer spot market for our requirement of space for next 12 months? An experienced broker can give sound advise in such matters.Disputes are unavoidable in any business deal – particularly when it is carried out across different cultures and under conditions which are dynamic and unpredictable. Although every contract provides a dispute resolution mechanism, the parties to the contract look forward to the intermediaries to anticipate potential dispute areas and take corrective actions. They also look forward to the ship-broker to help resolve any disputes that may come up in spite of the precautions. Ship-brokers, having built up a close rapport with the owner and the charterer are in a position to forge out formulas to find solutions to complicated problems. Commercial prudence can realize that legal disputes take much of time and money and both parties will accept a mutually acceptable and fair solution from a unbiased broker rather go in for costly litigation. Usually the parties to the contract resort to judicial and other dispute resolution mechanisms only after the intermediaries fail.The process of chartering starts with the pre fixture analysis when thetrader/charterer gives the basic details of the business to his broker (or in – house shipping department) who estimates the achievable freight rate. The broker, in addition to giving the freight rate also advises the trader about important parameters affecting the particular business. Using this information, the trader concludes the sale deed and asks the shipping department or the broker to fix the ship.The freight market is not a uniform one; it consists of various part markets that are not dependent on each other. The demand and supply and the market behavior of each of these segments are not necessarily inter related. Individual segments behave in their own way. It is not uncommon to see one segment riding the crest of a market boom when another one will be reeling under depressive pressures.The information and data required for analyzing the market trends for each segment is as different as the various segments in the industry. In addition to supply and demand, the state of the market also depends on economic situation, price of oil, war,strikes, weather and climatic factors, good or bad harvest, governmental policies, and so on and so forth. The hands-on broker need to have his data basespread over a wide variety of parameters to give meaningful information to his clients.Owning and operating a commercial ship in international and domestic trades is a complicated process that requires extensive experience and a large amount of capital (which limits entry by people unfamiliar to the business). You can't just buy a ship and sail off for a few months and then resell the ship to launder your money. Shipping is a highly cyclical business with volatile vessel values. Ship operation is very expensive – it costs $5-10,000 minimum per day to operate a ship and if someone does not know what they are doing, the losses can pile up fast.Offshore companies have been set up for decades with sophisticated structures that even financial institutions have trouble identifying who is the true ship owner - let alone the S&P broker who has no financial data available regarding a single purpose ship owning company.In the regular course of his business the S+P broker knows the market and what ships are or may become available for sale and who may be interested in purchasing them. The S+P broker provides sales candidates (i.e. a ship) to a buyer, arranges the inspection of the vessel, communicates the negotiations between the buyer / seller leading to an agreement, prepares the sales contract and coordinates the transaction until the ship is delivered and the agreed price is paid.We estimate that approximately 1,000 large ships are sold worldwide per year and the U.S. brokers may sell 25-50 of those (roughly 2.5-5.0 percent) .There are more than a hundred ship brokerage firms outside of the U.S.that provide sale and purchase services. In the U;S. there is only a handful, so it should be noted that putting restrictions on their activities would put them at a competitive disadvantage with foreign brokers. Regulations must be universal and apply to brokers in all countries – we estimate that 95-97 % of ship sale transactions take place outside of the U.S.If a ship owner has the choice between a foreign broker requiring no disclosure vs. a U.S. broker that requires extensive paperwork and registration, the choice is obvious and the small amount of business that currently gets done will dry up for the Americans.国际海运业：国际产业的国际规则Source:[1]Krishna Prasad,Changing Role of Ship-Brokers,Journal of Information Technology,2004[2]European Community,Overview of the International CommercialShipbuilding Industry,First Marine International Limited.2003 [3]ICS,IMO,International shipping:Global Regulation For aGlobal Industry,International Chamber of Shipping,2007在2009年国际航运公会和国际海事组织组织的国际运输论坛模型研讨会上得出的结论。
国际贸易理论-外文翻译
外文翻译原文international trade theoryMaterial Source:Boston college Author:J ames E.Anderson Adam Smith (1776) held that a country could gain from free trade. He pointed out that if one country has an absolute advantage over the other in one production and the other country has an absolute advantage over the first in another production, both countries gain from trading. But Smith failed to create a convincing economic theory of international trade. It is generally agreed that David Ricardo is the creator of the classical theory of international trade. The theories of comparative advantage and the gains from trade are usually connected with his name, even though many concrete ideas about trade existed before his Principles (Ricardo, 1817). In this theory the crucial variable used to explain international trade patterns is technology. The theory holds that a difference in comparative costs of production is the necessary condition for the existence of international trade. But this difference reflects a difference in techniques of production. According to this theory, technological differences between countries determine international division of labor and consumption and trade patterns. It holds that trade is beneficial to all participating countries.The Ricardian theory failed to determine the terms of trade, even though it can be used to determine the limits in which the terms of trade must lie. It was recognized long ago that in order to determine the terms of trade, it is necessary to build trade theory which not only takes account of the productive side but also the demand side. The neoclassical theory holds that the determinants of trade patterns are to be found simultaneously in the differences between the technologies, the factor endowments, and the tastes of different countries. Preference accounts for the existence of international trade even if technologies and factor endowments were completely identical between countries. The Marshallian offer curve has been often used to analyze problems such as the existence of equilibrium, the stability of equilibrium, the gains from trade, and optimum tariffs and so on within staticframeworks. Mill introduced the equation of international demand, according to which the terms of trade are determined so as to equate the value of exports and the value of imports. He argued: “the exports and imports between the two countries (or, if we suppose more than two, between each country and the world) must in the aggregate pay for each other, and must therefore be exchanged for one another at such values as will be compatible with the equation of the international demand”. Mill initiated the theory of reciprocal demand which is one of the earliest examples of general equilibrium analysis in trade theory.The Ricardian model and Heckscher-Ohlin model are two basic models of trade and production. They provide the pillars upon which much of pure theory of international trade rests. The so-called Heckscher-Ohlin model has been one of the dominant models of comparative advantage in modern economics. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory emphasizes the differences between the factor endowments of different countries and differences between commodities in the intensities with which they use these factors. The basic model deals with a long-term general equilibrium in which the two factors are both mobile between sectors and the cause of trade is different countries having different relative factor endowments. This theory examines the impact of trade on factor use and factor rewards. The theory is different from the Ricardian model which isolates differences in technology between countries as the basis for trade. In the Heckscher-Ohlin theory costs of production are endogenous in the sense that they are different in the trade and autarky situations, even when all countries have access to the same technology for producing each good. This model has been a main stream of international trade theory. According to Ethier (1974), this theory has four “core proportions”. In the simple case of two-commodity and two-country world economy, we have these four propositions (which are of course held under certain conditions) as follows: （1）factor-price equalization theorem by Lerner (1952) and Samuelson (1948, 1949), stating that free trade in final goods alone brings about complete international equalization of factor prices; (2) Stolper-Samuelson theory by Stolper and Samuelson (1941), saying that an increase in the relative price of one commodity raises the real return of the factor used intensively in producing that commodity and lowers the real return of the other factor; (3) Rybczyn ski theorem by Rybczynski (1955), stating that if commodity prices are held fixed, an increase in the endowment of one factor causes a more than proportionate increase in the output of the commodity which uses that factor relatively intensively and an absolute decline in the output of the other commodity;and (4) Heckscher-Ohlin theorem by Heckscher (1919) and Ohlin (1933), stating that a country tends to have a bias towards producing and exporting the commodity which uses intensively the factor with which it is relatively well-endowed.The Heckscher-Ohlin theory provides simple and intuitive insights into the relationships between commodity prices and factor prices, factor supplies and factor rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of production and trade. Although the Heckscher-Ohlin model was the dominant framework for analyzing trade in the 1960s, it had neither succeeded in supplanting the Ricardian model nor had been replaced by the specific-factor trade models. Each theory has been refined within ‘small scales’. Each th eory is limited to a range of questions. It is argued that as far as general ideas are concerned, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory may be considered as a special case of the neoclassical theory mentioned before as it accepts all the logical promises of neoclassical methodology. The Heckscher-Olin theory may be seen as a special case of the neoclassical trade theory in which production technology and preferences are internationally identical. This loss of generality has long been held necessary in order to construct a clear picture of international trade patterns and division of labor and consumption.Ricardo’s initial discussion of the concept of comparative advantage is limited to the case when factors of production are immobile internationally. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory is similarly limited to the study of how movements of commodities can substitute for international movements of productive factors. It is obvious that if technologies are everywhere identical and if production is sufficiently diversified, factor prices become equalized between countries. But if production functions differ between countries, no presumption as to factor equalization remains. Most of early contributions to trade theory deal with goods trade only and ignore international mobility of factors of production. For a long period of time since Ri-ardo, the classical mobility assumption had been well accepted. This assumption tells that all final goods are tradable between countries whereas primary inputs are non-tradable, though they are fully mobile between different sectors of the domestic economy. In reality, this classical assumption is invalid in many circumstances. For instance, many kinds of final’ goods, services, are not-trade and capitals are fully mobile between countries as well as within domestic economies. A great deal of works on trade theory has been concerned with examining the consequences of departures from these assumptions. There is an extensive literature on various aspects of international factor mobility.It may be true to say that most of the pure theory of international trade emerged from Ricardo’s Principles. The further development of the subject by Mill, Marshall and Edgeworth remained largely within the bounds set by Ricardo. Since then, there had been much attention focused on the determination of the terms of trade by reciprocal demand within frame-works of many goods, countries and factors under various forms of intervention. As mentioned by Findlay (1984), one topic that was almost entirely absent from the pure theory of international trade was any consideration of the connection between economic growth and international trade in classical literature of economic theory. Almost all the trade models developed before the 1960s are static in the sense that the supplies of factors of production are given and do not vary over time; the classical Ricardian theory of comparative advantage and the Heckscher-Ohlin theory are static since labor and capital stocks (or land) are assumed to be given and constant over time. Although Marshall held that it is important to study international trade in order to be clear of the causes which determine the economic progresses of nations, it has only been in the last three or four decades that trade theory has made some systematical treatment of endogenous capital accumulation or technological changes in the context of international economics.Eaton (1987) proposed a dynamic two-sector, three factors model of international trade. The dynamic specification of the model is based on Sam uelson’s (1958) overlapping generation’s model. The dynamic model at each point of time t proposed by Eaton is identical to the three-factor, two-commodity model examined in a static context by Jones (1971), Samuelson (1971) and Mussa (1974). The model tries to extend the Heck-scher-Ohlin theory to include endowments of factor as endogenous variables. In this model land and capital serve not only as factors of production but also as assets which individuals use to transfer income from working periods to retirement. The model shows that changes in the terms of trade and in the endowments of fixed factors do not necessarily have the same effects on factor prices and on the composition of output as they do in a static framework. Some results obtained from the specific-factors model about the relationships between commodity prices and factor prices, factor endowments and factor rewards, and factor endowments and the pattern of production are not held in the dynamic model. For instance, a permanent increase in the relative price of one commodity does not necessarily lower the steady-state income of the factor specific to the industry producing the other commodity.译文国际贸易理论资料来源:波士顿大学作者：詹姆斯·安德森亚当·斯密（1776）认为，国家能够从自由贸易中获益。
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国际贸易理论外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)新制度主义与新贸易理论：反思比较优势和贸易政策新制度主义与新贸易理论比较优势理论在国际贸易理论中一直占主导地位。
这一理论的主张，除了少数负面例子外，大多数国家的贸易都因此而变好。
虽然如此，这个理论也承认（斯托尔珀和萨缪尔森1941）贸易的收益因资本和劳动力份额的多少而变动，并且个体因素会带来更大的损失。
然而，失去的因素，原则上在贸易中仍然可以得到充分补偿。
虽然这些现象在实践中由于政治经济原因是很少发生的。
比较优势理论起到了促进自由贸易和全球化的中心作用。
虽然大多数专业经济学家都接受这个理论，但其中还有一些经济学家就充分就业的存在和市场能力对国家生产（帕利2003得）及全球配置理论的假设产生质疑。
制度经济学家也质疑其体制形式不很严密，特别是跨国公司及其复杂的对外合作对贸易格局的影响。
比较优势贸易理论中的批评也越来越多地夹杂在政治层面。
因此，更多的政治家和市民质疑贸易全球化到底能带来多大的利益。
特别是，越来越担心未来境外生产及外包很可能对人们的福利产生巨大影响。
本文探讨了当前戈莫里和鲍莫尔（2000）和萨缪尔森（2004）最近的工作 -GBS- 研究了这些问题。
特别是观点的一致性，本文着重在挖掘和澄清戈莫里以及鲍莫尔在经济问题上的分歧。
GBS在比较优势的均衡理论（尤其是萨缪尔森）在传统理论中占有优势，同时它还探讨了如何改变全球生产模式从而带来贸易收益分配的影响。
他们发现在全球化贸易中隐含着比传统贸易理论更多的东西。
GBS的研究结果也揭示了一些新古典贸易理论与贸易理论和制度主义融合的东西。
这种衔接工作表现在许多层面，从贸易的政策上来分析。
首先，贸易扩张未必是双赢的结果，系统和贸易的扩大可能造成单赢的结果。
第二，GBS的论点强调了国家与国家之间的技术转让和生产方法的交流，这些转让的背后隐含的现象对产品周期理论的链接是息息相关的。
三，规模收益递增（IRTS）发挥核心作用。
戈莫里 - 贸易冲破鲍莫尔的分歧与后凯恩斯经济学长期以来一直强调的IRTS影响（卡尔多1981）相连。
凯恩斯主义者往往强调通过Verdoorn规律，生产率的增长在于市场规模和经营的动态IRTS。
第四，GBS看到了战略性贸易政策，即从贸易中获取更大收益，并与制度主义政策思想的精神相联系。
同样重要的是了解GBS贸易理论的重新思考，这些与“贸易保护主义”无关。
他们当中有很多都赞成贸易会给各国带来利益。
然而，开放的问题将是如何让这些收益的分配随时间的改变而改变。
这就提出了新的重要政策问题，也就是可以采取什么措施，最大限度地从美国的贸易利益中共享。
因此这个问题也是他们最终关心的东西。
最后，GBS进行的微观经济理论分析，是传统贸易理论的基础条件。
这意味着他们反思自身条件的同时，也加强了他们对传统贸易理论的批评。
在这方面可以用宏观经济评论（布莱克2005年a，2005年b）和有关的贸易赤字对就业和投资的影响（比文斯2004年;布莱克2006）进行实证批评。
在这方面，各国之间可能存在重大分歧。
美国公司可以自由选择他们在全球基础上的经营策略，没有考虑到美国的国家利益。
事实上，考虑到美国的国家利益时，考虑的将会违反信托义务，因为管理人员有责任为股东价值最大化。
截然不同，在中国，国民政府对企业施加重大控制，是把国家利益和经营策略的因素考虑在一起。
从全国来看，这意味着相对美国中国是有利的，但在中国公司的股东，就没有美国公司的股东那么好了。
第三个方面需要注意的是汇率政策。
这个问题是不解决GBS的，但在工作中隐含着。
GBS的分析是基于纯粹的贸易理论，只是从汇率问题上看，它是很抽象的。
实际上，它假定了汇率按购买力平价值。
但是，如果汇率偏离这一点，他们可能会引起显著的扭曲。
在一个IRTS环境中，各国可以使用被低估的汇率给国内企业带来竞争优势。
被低估的汇率降低出口价格，增加了进口价格，从而增加产品的需求和产量。
在这种方式下，被低估的汇率可以帮助企业的平均成本向下移动从而获得执行的比较优势。
因此，各国可以战略性地利用汇率捕捉行业，它们并没有像以前那样的活动。
此外，制造业企业，是知识，技能和资本集群，产业和企业的聚集。
一旦企业和行业被摧毁它们是很昂贵的并且难以重组，即使汇率的估值得到纠正，这也将使他们不可能会重生。
因此，汇率集下的评估可能对全球生产（帕利2003）结构带来永久性的影响。
而且，即使在传统的贸易理论上，让汇率根据估值上升，比较优势和生产分配不当也会带来（布莱克2005年a）偏差。
比较优势是一个平衡的贸易理论。
因此，如果一个国家有一个被低估的汇率和贸易盈余并持续，这意味着它是一些出口产品国，它缺乏同样具有比较优势的产品，该国持续的贸易赤字是运行一些进口产品，它可能是真正有比较优势产品。
失业的存在，它是由纯贸易理论假设的，被低估的汇率可用于战略思想中，来挖走从其他国家的总需求，从而降低其他国家牺牲的失业问题。
很久以前，这种可能性是确定的。
琼罗宾逊（[1937] 1947，156-70）把这种政策称为“乞丐，我的邻国”的失业救济。
（9）其底线是，汇率问题对全球的生产和就业成果显著。
在一个没有IRTS的国度里，被低估的生产会偏离比较优势的汇率。
在与IRTS国度里，交易，估值率可用来永久性的改变平衡和锁定在全球生产中的新格局。
这些影响是汇率改变的贸易政策和贸易协议的核心部分。
然而目前，美国政策制定者已经拒绝交换，理由是市场干预的存在。
这项政策的立场是理性的，其证据不足。
有充分理由相信，外汇市场倾向于从众行为的许多理论依据。
也有较强的经验性证据表明，汇率偏离均衡水平的理论上保证- 无论是作为购买力平价或汇率与经常帐赤字持续一致的定义。
比这更糟糕的是，在某些情况下（尤其是东亚经济体）其他国家在战略上操纵本国货币汇率，这意味着美国经济正在外溢，失去产业和费尽了巨额贸易赤字来增加未来的负担。
另一种形式的战略方针是国内采购。
在这里，国家可以直接向政府购买本国的公司，从而扩大在这些公司中生产。
在这种方式下，他们可以帮助企业向下移动平均成本曲线，从而成为全球拥有低成本的企业，并抢得全球领导地位。
各国还可以从事劳动剥削取得优势。
在这种情况下，他们转变了企业的平均成本的日程表，而不是沿着它移动。
这对与中国来说，是美国工会在劳动剥削，为从事贸易优势而获得被告贸易直接相关的。
劳动剥削是可怕的和不能接受的。
然而，降低企业的成本问题即降低提供医疗和社会保险法的合法方式。
在美国，这种保险是通过提供就业机会，使其成为工作的费用来解决的。
这引起了美国的生产成本上升，美国生产商和竞争力处于不利地位，所以鼓励境外工作。
提供并通过了国家保险制度，是由联邦资助的税收，这有可能减少这种激励医疗保险，但也同样适用于社会保障资金。
事实上，在某种程度上它是由全球企业利润征税资助的，承担的费用部分由海外生产的利润来填补。
总之，GBS的贸易分析提供了一个集合的政策，还有一些与历史上被称为什么工业或相似的微观经济竞争力的政策的理由。
但是，提出的政策不涉及决策者“挑选赢家”。
这一种东西，没有理由相信他们能做到。
相反，政策应该被看作是确立正确的经济气候和气候结构，即法律，规则和制度。
其中商业经营，应采取措施鼓励企业创新和投资，并为工人提高他们的技能。
结构应该也能确保公司的利益与国家利益相一致。
大气是指对执政的经济条件，这应该有利于国内的业务表现。
气氛被认为是促进充分就业和充分需求方面，这包括扩张性的宏观经济政策和汇率维持竞争力的价值政策。
GBS贡献贸易的辩论在进入GBS的主题内容分析之前，我们应该区分贸易中存在的一些批评他们的理论。
首先，他们的论据不是有关贸易收入分配的不利影响。
这些影响是广泛的被理解，而对于萨缪尔森所作的开创性贡献，在他的贸易理论与沃尔夫冈斯托尔珀（1941年）的工作领域中体现。
据斯托尔帕-萨缪尔森定理，一个国家打开贸易时，该因素是相对稀缺的，在交易前失去了平衡。
在美国而言，这意味着美国工人失去他们含蓄地成为一个全球劳动力市场的一部分。
这种收入再分配的效果仍然执行，但它是有别于由金紫荆星章所提出的新的忧虑。
由GBS新问题提出的是比较优势的动态演变与从贸易收益的分配造成的影响。
比较优势理论认为可以从整个世界经济贸易中获取收益。
然而，各国之间的收益分配上的供求情况，是贸易条件而决定的（即进口和出口的相对价格），而这些条件可以改变。
约翰逊早期的工作（1954 至1955）和巴格瓦蒂（1958）关于贸易条件和贸易利益分配的影响很大。
萨缪尔森（2004）改变的重点和探讨的经济影响很受关注。
人们普遍认为所有国家都从其他国家的技术进步中受益，因为这样扩大了全球的生产可能性边界（PPF）。
但是，事实证明，并不一定是所有国家都会有利益。
这是一个重要的理论发现。
戈莫里和鲍莫尔（2000）探讨类似主题的环境中，企业也有这样的平均单位成本下降的规模内部经济随着生产量的增加。
像萨缪尔森（2004）模型中，他们充分就业是一个世界，让他们认同的问题是与贸易，而不是失业问题。
引入失业只有他们确定化合物的关注。
规模经济意味着每种产品由一个国家生产。
戈莫里和鲍莫尔认为所有国家都获得相同的技术。
哪个国家获得生产什么产品，然后取决于所到达的成本曲线向下移动。
多个平衡点的存在意味着它只是偶然，实际equilibriura是全球产出的最大化，而当时整个国家的生产效率不高。
例如，一个国家可能会在大量的行业领先，从而阻止他们进入新的行业。
然而，生产规模过小，在这些行业中又失去了较大的规模效益。
在这种情况下，重新安排全球生产模式可以受惠，扩大产业规模，减少一些在其他方面的一切支出。
通过举例来说明，考虑在这样的情况下，有两个相同的国家和四个行业，每个国家都有充分就业。
假设初始均衡控制的行业有1-3个，行业和国家两个控制4个。
在这种情况下，规模过小，产业1-3个，太大。
一个优越的生产计划，扩大全球收入是让每个国家生产两种商品，从而扩大生产和产业1-3并承包4中。
国家效率低下，如果能得到更糟糕的不同成本曲线。
这种差异可能存在，因为在技术差异上赋予了一个国家，或由于“外部”规模经济所产生的集聚效应的绝对优势。
这种积极的集聚效应出现，个别企业效率的提高作为整个行业的扩展。
产业扩张降低了单个企业的成本。
在这种情况下，不仅可以有一个全球生产分布不均（戈莫里- 鲍莫尔低效率），但而且生产也会错误投入到低劣的技术和成本较高的国家。
如果一个国家获得的成本高，效率低，那么向下移动平均成本曲线很多，从而成为全球的低成本生产和收购“执政”的成本优势。
尽管其他国家可能更加有效，他们锁定的第一个国家开始向下移动了它的平均成本曲线。
另一个例子是，如果一些行业赚取更高的利润价值，在这种情况下，各国将有动力夺取这些行业，以赚取更高的价值。