TheStudyofFinancialRiskinM&A(并购的财务风险研究)-外文翻译

JohnA . Douka,International Journal of business and management[J]January2009并购的财务风险研究摘要并购是一个高风险的活动。

并购业务，无论是在准备阶段，还是在合并的运营阶段，或之后的整合阶段，将伴随着大量的不确定性。

这些跨国并购所带来的不确定性有可能导致巨大的财务风险。

尤其在当前,更多的国内企业已经选择了并购这条路。

本文对并购的各个重点阶段容易受到的财务风险分析，并对这些风险提出了防范措施。

关键词：并购，财务风险，防范措施在西方国家，并购有大约超过100年的历史，交易规模不断扩大。

2000年，在我国，第五次全球并购浪潮达到一个高峰，并购在我国越来越受欢迎。

例如，许多公司加快海外扩张和并购的步伐，许多企业选择并购来渡过难关。

正如我们所知道的，并购一定会有风险，比如：目标公司的评估，交易方法，或财务风险的选择。

如何才能避免这些风险？我们要选择哪种方法？这就是这篇文章的目的。

1.并购导致财务风险的原因1.1高估或低估了公司价值带来的风险1.1.1信息不对称是影响估计的主要因素由于信息不对称，目标公司一直隐瞒不良信息和夸大良好的信息。

投标人还夸大自己的实力，他们所披露的情况不足或失真。

因此，贸然行动的失败结果随处可见。

有很多有关风险的资料，两个重要的例子就是：第一，股票风险，公平对任何一家公司都是很重要的，但所提供的信息和真实情况之间存在着差异，这些虚假的信息威胁到并购的成功；第二，债务信息的风险，如果没有发现这种风险，庞大的债务将毫无缘由的转嫁到投标人身上。

1.1.2缺乏合理的评估方法有三种评估方法：成本法、市场法、收益法，这其中，市场法要求有关信息的对称性要高，只有当信息评价具有高对称性时才可以对企业作出准确判断。

然而，在我国，信息对称水平低，小企业采用这种方法。

他们大多采用替代法和收益法。

这两个方法也有缺点，重置成本反映历史成本，不能反映未来盈利能力；就算把现值看做增值的收入，它也明显的缺陷，那就是，未来的收入预期是不同的。

1.1.3评估体系不健全这是在整个行业中的一种评估制度，而不是一个简单的方法。

目前，我国缺少独立、专业的团体，海外并购多数由企业自行完成，在这点上是有一定程度的不合理。

由于缺乏专业技能，且没有长期随访观察的习惯，并不能得到长期、稳定的信息等等，这一切导致了评估结果不能按照预期发展。

1.2交易方式的选择导致的风险1.2.1现金方法如果你不期望在现金支付中有风险，就必须使增加的预期现金流的净现值大于所支付的，而投标人的股东将承担损失。

当现金付款的成本扩大，面临着巨大的债务负担，并且最后期限的资金来源结构不合理，或缺乏短期融资，很容易带来收购的流动性压力。

此时如果有一个新公司流动性资产水平低，就会产生流动性风险，而流动性风险最突出的是通过现金付款体现的。

1.2.2支付普通股整体而言，股票支付的主要风险来自增值的期望，股东交易所扩大股东的基础，导致了每股收益下降，因为稀释了每股收益，投资者会怀疑目标公司取回每股收益的能力下降，投标人的股票价格将下降。

这表明从该可转换股权稀释的比例是造成支付风险的最重要手段。

1.2.3杠杆付款杠杆将不可避免地带来债务风险。

杠杆是投标人作出贷款，向银行抵押企业资产，合并后的生产和经营活动产生的现金将成功偿还贷款。

其杠杆付款方式目的是通过贷款解决使用贷款的资金问题，并希望收购能得到有效的杠杆效益。

这种方法必将实现高的投资回报，这需要稳定的现金流来完成。

否则，因为无法还清了更高的债务，收购公司可能会破产。

1.3合并后的整合不利导致财务风险在整合期间，当风险因素作用到一定程度时，这将导致财务风险的发生。

根据表现，财务风险可以分为机制风险，财务风险和经营风险。

机制风险意味在整合时期，由于设立了金融机构，财政职能，财政管理体制，金融机构的更新，金融的协同作用和其他因素，财政收入和投标人的预期财政收益发生偏离并因此遭受到的损失。

财务风险是指如果当金融运行有错误，财政收入和财政税收将脱离预期。

在资产管理过程中，投标人控制他们的资产、成本、金融业务、负债、利润和其他财务职能，按照实现协同收入最大化的原理是为了实现跨国并购成功的的最终目的。

然而，不确定性的宏观和微观环境的，影响着财务运作，从而导致财务风险。

经营风险是指金融活动的监管不足，导致财务风险的结果。

这说明并购进程的结束并不等于最后的成功，金融一体化是财务管理的结束，也是最重要的方面，如果失败就意味着整个并购是失败的。

2.财务风险防范措施2.1防范信息风险这主要作用是通过合理，有效的方法排除虚假信息然后获得真正的，全面的信息。

对于股票的风险，有两个要点：适当谨慎和披露。

适当的谨慎是指调查，审查和评价过程。

投标人必须调查目标公司外部和内部的情况，以便找到一些限制产权交易的政府活动。

信息披露是指目标公司应该告诉诸如投标人的有关材料，信息，债权债务等。

信息披露必须真实，完整，没有误导成分。

至于债务风险，我们必须首先选择最好的方法;第二，你必须与有关的债务范围达成一致。

2.2建立完善的评价体系，并选择适当的评估方法适当的评价方法通常包括两个系统的评价：一个是基本系统，包括财务分析，业内人士分析，运行情况分析。

金融体系的分析有助于理解双方财政状况，业内人士分析系统，可以使投标人了解了外部环境，以及行业发展趋势的状态。

通过对经营状况分析，可以了解存在的问题，操作并提供了整合的基础。

在此基础上，企业才能避免这种风险。

二是评价体系。

有很多评价体系的方法，正如账面价值，市场价值，清算价值，贴现现金流量等。

不同的评估方法会导致不同的价格，因此企业应根据自己的动机，选择更好的方法。

2.3选择灵活的付款方式在付款方式上合理安排和减少财务费用，是与该付款方式有关，其中现金支付面临最大压力。

并购企业可以结合自己的现有资源，稀释每股收益和股票价格波动，在股权结构的变化，以便使他们发放现金，债券和股票的组合，使其能满足双方的需要。

例如，并购需要两层付款方式，在第二个步骤，采取现金方式的混合方法。

此付款，在一方面，由于交易规模，买方支付现金对价的能力有限，应保持一个比较合理的资本结构，以减少对贷款的巨大压力，另一方面，投标人可以诱导目标公司股东尽快作出出售决定，接着就可以达到取得对目标企业控制的目的。

2.4加强并购后的整合2.4.1加强财务控制，人力资源，金融机构和金融一体化的功能例如，兼并和收购业务，任命首席财务总监，在日常的日常财务活动，财务主任明确责任和权力，他们发挥对并购业务的组织和监督作用，并享有对整个企业所涉及的重大事件的决策权；并购实施调整，资源的分配，重大投资，技术结构发展和其他重大决策权的企业并购，预算的重大决策的监测和控制各种类型的预算执行情况，并审核其财务报告；负责人事管理业务的的财务会计，定期报告并购的资产经营和财务状况。

与此同时，当收购完成后，金融机构应改善其组织的具体情况，包括财务会计制度，内部控制制度，投资和融资制度，使其更符合双方的需要，并建立一个统一的金融信息平台，以便使能更快，更准确和更全面的管理，使得所有类型的财务信息得以满足决策的需求。

2.4.2财务管理一体化财务管理的目标是财务工作的出发点和归宿点，其结果影响到金融体系的理论，将决定一个财务决策的各种选择。

一旦并购完成后，企业应该在目标公司财务方面做一个财务管理基础上的明确目标。

2.4.3整合资产和负债在并购业务，投标人的债务可能增加，因为在接管时所采取的债务等方法只是为贷款和发行债券。

如果资本结构不合理，金融形势也变得恶化。

因此旨在改善财务状况的综合平衡和加强企业的偿付能力。

2.4.4为了加强企业管理的风险意识，建立和完善金融风险的预测和监控若要提高风险管理业务的认识，将从源头防范并购的财务风险。

此外，建立企业内部自己的财务风险防范和控制系统，加强企业对并购风险的预测是建立早期预警机制的关键领域之一。

综上所述，并购作为一种扩展业务规模，转变市场策略，调整社会经济结构和资源优化配置的更好更独特的方式，因而成为一个很受关注的话题，财务风险由并购产生的，因此也在各领域引起了深人广泛的讨论。

随着市场的成熟，我认为并购活动的研究将更加深入，对并购和其财务风险问题将得到进一步深化，实现真正意义上的理论指导实践。

注：图表、致谢及参考文献已略去（见原文）。

International Journal of business and management[J]January2009The Study of Financial Risk in M&AJohnA . DoukaAbstractM &A is a risky activity. M & A business, whether in the preparation stage, or in the operational phase of the merger, or post-integration phase, will be accompanied by a large number of uncertainties. These uncertainties brought about by mergers and acquisitions could lead to a huge financial risk. In particular, more domestic enterprises have chosen the path of M & A. This article focuses on the various stages of the merger vulnerable to financial risks, and risks of these raised a number of preventive measures.Keywords: M&A, Financial risk, Preventive measuresIn the west countries, M&A have a history about more than 100 years, and transactions have been expanding. The 5th wave of global mergers and acquisitions peaked in 2000.In our country, M&A become more and more popular. For example, many companies step up the pace of overseas expansion and M&A. However, , many companies choose M&A to tide over the difficulties. As we known, M&A must have risks, for instance: estimate of target firms, choice of transaction method, or financial risks. How can avoid these risks? Which method should we choose? This is the purpose of this article.1.The cause of financial risk in M&A1.1 Overestimate or underestimate the value of firms lead to the risk1.1.1 Information asymmetry is the major factor which impacts the estimationBecause of Information asymmetry, target firm always conceal adverse information and exaggerate good information. Bidders also exaggerate their strength, disclosure between them are inadequate or distorted. Therefore, failures which result from rash actions can be found everywhere. There are many information risks, for tow important examples: first, equity risk, equity is very important in any firms, however there are difference between the offer information and the real, these illusive information threaten the succeed of M&A; second, debt information risk, if this risk would not be found, a large debt will fall to the bidders with no reasons.1.1.2 Lack of rational evaluation methodsThere are three evaluation methods: replacement cost method; market valuemethod; the present value of earnings, between them, market value method has high request about Information symmetry, for firms can make an exact evaluation only when the information is high symmetry. However, in our country, the level of information symmetry is lower, little firms adopt this method. Most of them adopt replacement method and the present value of earnings method. These two methods also hav e disadvantages, replacement cost reflects the historical cost which can’t reflect the future profitability; although the present value considers the value-added revenue, it has also obvious flaws, that is, future revenue expected is very different. 1.1.3 The system of assessment is not perfectHere is the assessment system in the whole industry, rather than a simple method. At present, our country is lack of independent, professional bodies, the majority of overseas M&A is completed by the enterprises themselves, on this point there is a certain degree of irrationality. Because lack of professional skills, and there is no habits of long-term follow-up observation, and can’t receive long-term and stable information and so on, all this lead to the result can’t follow the expectation.1.2 Risk result from the choice of transaction methods1.2.1 Cash methodIf you expect there is no risk in cash payment, you must make the present value of incremental of expected cash flow net present value is greater than the paid, whereas shareholders of bidders will bear the loss. When the cost of cash payment is expansion, and face huge debt burden, and the source of funding deadline is unreasonable structure, or lack of short-term financing, it is easy to bring to the acquisition of liquidity pressure. At this time if the new company has a low level of liquid assets, it will have a liquidity risk, and liquidity risk is the most outstanding performance of cash payment.1.2.2 Common stock paymentOn the whole, the major risk of stock payment comes from the value-added expectation, the stock exchange expand the shareholder’s base, leading to the decline of earnings per share, when investors doubt the target firm’s ability of getting back earnings per share, the stock price of bidder will decline because of dilution of earnings per share. It shows that the proportion of equity dilution resulting from the convertible is the most important means of payment risks.1.2.3 Leverage paymentLeverage will inevitably bring the debt risk. Leverage is the bidders make targetenterprise assets as collateral for loan to banks, post-merger success with the production and operation activities generated cash to repay the loan. The aim of leverage payment is to solve the fund problem by using the loans, and hope that the acquisition can receive effective leverage benefit. This method is bound to achieve a high return on investment and it need stable cash flows to complete. Otherwise, the acquiring company may go bankrupt because of can’t pay off the h igher debt.1.3 Financial risk resulting from adverse integration in the post-mergerIn the integration period, when the role of risk factors come to a certain extent, that will lead to the occurrence of financial risks. According to the manifestations, financial risk can be divided into the mechanisms risk, financial risk and operational risk. Mechanisms risk means in the integration period, because of setting up financial institutions, financial functions, financial management system, update of financial organizations, financial synergies, and other factors, the financial income and financial gains of bidders occurred in a departure from expectations, and thus suffer losses. Financial risk means financial income and financial revenue will depart from the expected if there is something wrong with the financial running. In the process of asset management, bidders control their assets, costs, financial operations, liabilities, profits, and other financial functions in accordance with the principle of maximizing the synergy earnings in order to achieve the final purpose of mergers and acquisitions. However, the uncertainty of macro-and micro-environment affect the decision-making process in the financial operation, which lead to financial risk. Operational risk means financial risk result from inadequate monitoring of financial activities.That shows process ending is not equals to final succeed, financial integration is the end of financial management in the M&A, and is also the most important aspect, if it failed it means the whole M&A is failed.2．Prevention measures of financial risk2.1 Prevention for information riskThe important role for this prevention is to rule out the false information through legitimate and effective method and then to get real, comprehensive information. For the equity risk, there are two main points: an appropriate cautiousness and disclosure. Appropriate cautiousness means a process of investigation, review and evaluation. Bidders must investigate the external and internal situation of target firms, in order to find some government activities which restrict property right transaction. Disclosure means that the target company should tell the bidders just as relevant materials,information, debt claims and so on. Disclosure must be true, complete and not misleading. As for the debt risk, we must first choose the best method; second, you must make an agreement about debt scope.2.2 Establish a perfect evaluation system, and select appropriate assessment methodsAppropriate evaluation methods usually include tow systems: One is the basic system which includes financial analysis, industry analysis, operating conditions analysis. Analysis of the financial system contribute to the understanding of the financial situation between the two sides, Industry analysis system, can make the bidder understand the external environment, as well as the status of industry trends. Through the analysis of operating conditions can understand the existing problems the operation, and provide the basis for integration. On this basis, enterprises can avoid this risk. Second is the evaluation system. There are many methods of the evaluation system, just as book value, market value, liquidation value, discounted cash flow and so on. Different valuation methods will lead to different price, so firms should select a better method in accordance with their own motive.2.3 Flexible choice of payment methodsReasonable arrangements for the payment method and financial cost reducing are related to the payment method in which cash payment face the most pressure. M & A business can combine their own available resources, diluted earnings per share and stock price volatility, changes in the shareholding structure in order to make their payment as combinations of cash, debt and stock, so that it can meet the need between two sides. For example, M&A takes two-tier payment method, for the first, adopt cash method while mixed method is used when the second step. This payment, on the one hand, because of the size of the transaction, the buyer paid cash consideration of a limited capacity, should maintain a more reasonable capital structure to reduce the enormous pressure on the loan, on the other hand, bidder can induce shareholders of target firm to make sell decision as soon as possible, and then they can reach the goal of obtaining control of the business.2.4 To strengthen the post-merger integration2.4.1 Strengthening financial control, financial integration of human resources, financial institutions and functions of the organizationFor example, mergers and acquisitions business was to appoint Chief Financial Officer, Chief Financial Officer has clear responsibility and authority, they play the organization and monitoring role on the M & A business from day-to-day financialactivities, and enjoy the decision-making power on a major event involved in the whole enterprise; implementing the structure of the M & A Adjust, the allocation of resources, a significant investment, technology development and other major decision-making to the budget of the corporate mergers and acquisitions, monitoring and controlling various types of the budget implementation, and audit its financial reporting; being responsible for personnel management business of their own financ ial accounting; reporting the M & A’s assets operation and financial position on a regular basis. At the same time, when the acquisition is completed, financial institutions and the functions should be improved according to the specific circumstances of their organizations, including financial accounting systems, internal control systems, investment and financing system to make it more responsive to the needs of both mergers and acquisitions, and to establish a unified Financial information platform, so that management can be faster, more accurate and more comprehensive access to all types of financial information in order to meet the needs of decision-making.2.4.2 Integration of financial managementFinancial management objective is the starting point and end point of financial working, its determination directly impact on the theory of the financial system, and will determine the choice of a variety of financial decision-making. Upon completion of mergers and acquisitions, firms should make a clear objective of financial management based on the financial side of target firms.2.4.3 Integration of asset and liabilitiesIn M & A business, debt of bidders may increase because of taking over the acquisition's debt, or adopt financial method just as loans and bonds issue. If capital structure is irrational, and financial situation also become deterioration. So the balance of integration aiming at improving the financial situation and enhance the solvency of enterprises.2.4.4To enhance the risk awareness of management of enterprise, establish and improve financial risk prediction and monitoring system.To raise the risk awareness of management of the business will guard against financial risks of mergers and acquisitions from the source. In addition, establish its own enterprise financial risk prevention and control system within the enterprise, to strengthen business-to-risk M & A forecast is one of the key areas of the establishment of early warning mechanism for risk prevention system.ConclusionTo sum up，M & A business as a better way with the unique advantages of the expansion of the scale, rapid market strategy, the socio-economic restructuring and resources optimization to become a topic of concern, the financial risk arising from the merger is also a deep wide range of people discussion of the field. As the market matures, I think M & A activity will be more thoroughly researched on mergers and acquisitions of financial risk issues will be further deepened, to achieve a real and practical application of theory to guide practice.References[1] Barnea , A., Haugen, R. A., and Senbet , L. (1981). An Equilibrium Analysis of Debt Financing Under Costly Tax Arbitrage and Agency Problems. 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