显示屏市场分析

10
TPV Business Plan in Y09
SHARP 10% AUO 5%
LGD 30%
CMO 55%
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
30,000 25,000 ( K s q u a re m e t e r) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Q1-06 Q2 Supply Demand Full capacity Q3 Q4 Q1-07 Q2 Q3 Q1Q4 Q1-08 Q2 Q3(F) Q4(F) Q2(F) Q3(F) Q4(F) 09(F) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% G lu t ra t io ( % )
TPV TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
Prepared by: Panel Team 2008/09/10
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
15
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
16
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
17
Monitor Panel Price Forecast
2008 MTR Panels Dec Jan $104 15" $92 15.6"W $124 17" $110 17"W $140 19" 18.5"W (16:9) 19W $126 $135 20W $155 21.6 $166 22W 2008 23.6" (16:9) MTR Panels Dec Jan 0 15" -4 15.6"W -5 17" -1 17"W -5 19" 18.5"W (16:9) 19W -6 -3 20W 21.6W -6 22W 2008 Feb $106 $90 $122 $105 $135 $123 $132 $149 $160 2008 Feb 2 -2 -2 -5 -5
5
Source: Witsview Y08Q3
TV Part
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
6
TV Panel demand
CAGR: 15% 164M 145M 3% 116M 2% 7% 18% 9% 31% 31% 8% 19% 18% 8% 8% 29% 32W 8% 37W 5% 8% 20% 40/42W 177M 7% 8% 52+W 46/47W
Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
W/W TV Panel Maker Market Share in Y08 Q1 & Q2
Y08.Q1
Sharp, 13% LGD, 19% CPT, 3%
CPT, 3%
Y08.Q2
Sharp, 15% LGD, 18%
9
TPV Purchasing Share in Y08 H1
LGD, 0.9% SHARP, 19.8% AUO, 25.9%
CPT, 1.7%
CMO, 51.7%
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
CMO, 20%
Samsung , 21%
CMO, 20%
Samsung , 22%
AUO, 24%
AUO, 21%
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
1 11
Topics
• Panel Market Brief • TV Panel Strategy and Planning • MTR Panel Strategy and Planning
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
S.I.
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
13
Relation of Industrial Roles
SS LGD AUO CMO CPT HSD BOE IVO SVA Sharp Dell SS HP LGE ACER LNV AOC VSC BENQ PHILIPS ASUS APPLE NDS
2 4 2 2
2008 May $103 $92 $123 $115 $145 $127 $142 $153 $158 2008 May -3 1 0 3 3
1 3 2 1
2008 Jun $92 $82 $111 $103 $132 $118 $131 $140 $145 2008 Jun -11 -10 -12 -12 -13
Mar 760 760 575 445 330 235
Apr 740 750 560 435 325 235
May 730 740 545 425 320 230
Jun 710 720 530 410 310 220
Jul 685 695 505 390 290 205
Aug 655 665 475 370 270 190
31%
33%
31%
29%
28%
26W-
2008/9/7
’08
’09
’10
’11
Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
7
7
(Source : LGD Marketing, June ‘08)
TPV confidential and for internal use only
Sep 640 650 460 360 260 180
Oct 630 640 450 355 255 175
Nov 620 630 440 350 250 170
Dec 610 620 430 340 245 165
Jan-09 600 610 420 330 240 160
Feb 580 590 410 320 235 155
Jan-07
37'' WXGA
Jul
Jan-08
32'' WXGA
Jul
26" WXGA(TN)
Jan-09
S/D glut
LCD TV panel Jan-08 Feb 47" FHD 790 780 46" FHD 790 780 42" FHD 590 580 37'' WXGA 450 450 32'' WXGA 330 330 26" WXGA(TN) 235 235 2008/9/7
2
Long Term SD Analysis
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
3
Short Term SD and Sufficiency
TV Panel Price Trend
LCD TV Panel Price Forecast 1500 1250 1000 USD/PC 750 500 250 0 Jan-05 July
47" FHD
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Jan-06
46" FHD
Jul
42" FHD
Demand
FuБайду номын сангаасl capacity
After adjustment
4
Source: Witsview Y08Q3
New Fab Ramp Up Plan
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
11
Monitor Part
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
12
Relation of Industrial Roles
Brand
Panel
-9 -11 -13 -13
2008 Jul $79 $75 $86 $85 $109 $85 $90 $105 $120 $125 2008 $0 Jul -13 -7 -25 -18 -23
-28 -26 -20 -20
2008 Aug $71 $69 $79 $74 $95 $76 $81 $99 $103 $109 2008 $146 Aug -8 -6 -7 -11 -14 -9 -9 -6 -17 -16
Mar 570 580 400 310 230 150
Apr 560 570 400 310 230 150
May 550 560 400 310 230 150
Jun 550 560 400 310 230 150 8
8
TPV confidential and for internal use only
-3 -3 -6 -6
2008 Mar $107 $89 $121 $107 $137 $124 $135 $149 $155 2008 Mar 1 -1 -1 2 2
1 3 0 -5
2008 Apr $106 $91 $123 $112 $142 $126 $139 $151 $157 2008 Apr -1 2 2 5 5
$
Panel
Brand
S.I. Only 4 major SI survive
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
14
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data
8,614 9,145 10,690 11,835 11,607 13,611 15,879 17,156 18,635 19,395 18,917 20,272 21,803 23,702 26,126 27,410 7,242 8,037 9,828 10,672 10,244 13,167 15,458 17,307 16,477 17,143 18,101 19,664 19,248 20,614 22,960 23,091 18.9% 13.8% 8.8% 10.9% 13.3% 3.4% 2.7% -0.9% 13.0% 14.6% 16.0% 12.3% 19.8% 17.1% 13.4% 18.5%
After adjustment 18.9% 13.8% 8.8% 10.9% 13.3% 3.4% 2.7% -0.9% 13.1% 13.1% 4.5% 3.1% 13.3% 15.0% 13.8% 18.7% Supply
2008/9/7
TPV confidential and for internal use only Source: Witsview, Displaysearch, TPV own data