最新英语阅读-经济学人文章三篇

IF THE Federal Reserve eases monetary policy again at its meeting on 1September 13th, as I expect, it will be its most meticulously debated, 2planned and scrutinised move in recent memory. The case for action has 3been apparent at least since the spring when it became clear the economy 4would underperform the Fed's repeatedly lowered economic forecasts. Yet 5Ben Bernanke spent much of the press conference following the Fed's 6meeting in June, when it extended Operation Twist (the purchase of 7long-term bonds financed by selling short-term bonds) on the defensive 8over why the Fed hadn't done more. In August, it again chose not to pull 9the trigger. But it did release a statement that hinted the point was 10drawing near. The minutes to that meeting released three weeks later 11suggested it would take an immediate and powerful improvement in the 12economy to stay the Fed's hand.1314When Mr Bernanke made his annual appearance at the Kansas City Fed's 15economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, today, the world was 16wondering whether he would send a definitive sign that action was coming.17He did not, merely repeating the key sentence from the August statement, 18that the Fed "will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to 19promote a stronger economic recovery." This should not have been 20surprising; Fed chairmen don't like to front-run the Federal Open Market 21Committee.2223Mr Bernanke had a different goal than signaling to Wall Street. Pressure 24on the Fed has become intense in the last year, from hawks and 25conservatives (not necessarily, but increasingly, the same) who think the 26Fed has done all it can do and going further risks inflation, monetisation 27of the debt, and a loss of credibility for the central bank; and from doves 28and liberals who accuse Mr Bernanke of having shirked his responsibility 29and his own prior advice to the Bank of Japan by not more aggressively 30using the tools and alternative frameworks available to boost employment.31That this debate has unfolded against the backdrop of a tight and divisive 32presidential election has only raised the stakes, because it meant no 33matter what the Fed does, one party will accuse it of having helped the 34other win.3536Since Mr Bernanke could not escape criticism regardless of what the Fed 37did, tactically he was best served by waiting until the case for action 38was unambiguous, unsurprising and, most important, well articulated. The 39data have made the case unambiguous: employment and growth are weak and 40inflation by the Fed's preferred measure has edged down. By September 13th, 41it will certainly be unsurprising. Mr Bernanke's task today was to 42articulate the case.4344Mr Bernanke has always said the test was whether the benefits of more 45"quantitative easing" (QE)—the purchase of assets by printing money 46—exceeded the costs. This is what he did today. On the benefits, he said 47studies that show the Fed's two previous rounds of QE (large scale asset 48purchases, or LSAPs in Fed jargon) plus Operation Twist had lowered 49Treasury yields by 80 to 120 basis points. They have also led to 50"significant declines in the yields on both corporate bonds...[and] 51substantial reductions in MBS yields and retail mortgage rates. LSAPs also 52appear to have boosted stock prices, presumably both by lowering discount 53rates and by improving the economic outlook." On the economic impact, he 54reported:5556“57If we are willing to take as a working assumption that the effects of 58easier financial conditions on the economy are similar to those observed 59historically, then econometric models can be used to estimate the effects 60of LSAPs on the economy. Model simulations conducted at the Federal 61Reserve generally find that the securities purchase programs have 62provided significant help for the economy. For example, a study using the 63Board's FRB/US model of the economy found that, as of 2012, the first two 64rounds of LSAPs may have raised the level of output by almost 3 percent 65and increased private payroll employment by more than 2 million jobs, 66relative to what otherwise would have occurred. The Bank of England has 67used LSAPs in a manner similar to that of the Federal Reserve, so it is 68of interest that researchers have found the financial and macroeconomic 69effects of the British programs to be qualitatively similar to those in 70the United States.”7172Mr Bernanke also argued that the Fed's forward rate guidance, that is 73its commitment not to raise rates through the end of 2014, have had a 74powerful impact on expectations of Fed tightening. In conclusion, he said 75that "nontraditional policy tools have been and can continue to be 76effective in providing financial accommodation" (emphasis mine).7778He then catalogued the potential costs of further easing: impaired 79market functioning as the Fed's share of total bonds in circulation rose;80the potential for asset bubbles if interest rates are kept low for a long 81time; the threat of inflation if the Fed has trouble exiting from its 82purchases; and potential losses if the bonds lose value when interest 83rates rise. Mr Bernanke said "the hurdle for using non-traditional 84policies should be higher than for traditional policies. At the same time, 85the costs of non-traditional policies, when considered carefully, appear 86manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such 87policies if economic conditions warrant."8889Do conditions warrant? Yes. As Mr Bernanke put it, "the economic 90situation is obviously far from satisfactory."9192If Mr Bernanke has made it clear that the Fed plans to act on September 9313th, he has not yet clarified how. The Fed could extend its low-rate 94guidance past 2014, but Mr Bernanke's speech seemed to assign such a move 95less efficacy than further bond purchases. If the Fed buys bonds, would 96it buy Treasurys or MBS or something else? By citing housing as first among 97the headwinds holding back the economy, and specifying the impact on 98mortgage rates of prior QE, he made a prima facie case for buying MBS and 99Treasurys. It is still not clear, though, whether the Fed would announce 100a fixed amount of purchases over a fixed term, or an open-ended programme 101(eg, $100 billion per month, keyed to economic conditions).102103What is fairly certain is that he will not be thanked when it happens. 104Conservatives will dial up their accusations of reckless Fed activism, 105and probably add toadying to Barack Obama to the rap sheet. Liberals will 106decry the Fed for not having gone further, or acted sooner. And in truth, 107no one can be sure that either is wrong. At today's Jackson Hole conference, 108there was an animated debate on this question. Adam Posen, whose last day 109on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is today, decried the 110"defeatism about policy" which leads people to conclude that if monetary 111policy isn't working, it must simply be the structure of the economy. In 112fact the problem is more likely to be impairments to particular financial 113markets, which can be addressed with asset purchases in that specific 114sector (eg, small-business loans). Central banks have shied away from such 115purchases because of "self-imposed taboos", Mr Posen fretted, such as 116fears that such purchases would misallocate credit or look like 117politicised fiscal policy. This, he said, "is a prehistoric way of 118thinking."119120Larry Lindsey, a former Fed governor and adviser to George Bush, shot 121back: "In a free society, individuals and institutions don’t do unusual 122things because if you do, and break custom and happen to be wrong, you’123re betting the farm. It's normal, prudential sort of political behaviour. 124For our profession, after the last two decades, to realise modesty in what 125we express and can do, is probably becoming."126127Mr Bernanke can sympathise with both. When he first joined the Fed in 1282002, he was, like most academics, something of a hedgehog, quite sure 129of the answers and impatient with the fools and cowards who refused to 130implement them. One of his first speeches as governor made the academic 131point that when short-term interest rates are at zero, the Fed still has 132plenty of ammo by printing money, what Milton Friedman euphemistically 133called dropping money from a helicopter. This was the origin of the epithet 134"Helicopter Ben". A year after that, he made the same case but with more 135nuance in Japan. In the intervening years, he has become, as most 136policymakers do, a fox: the real world contains political constraints and 137unintended consequences that must be factored in before the academically 138ideal remedy is applied.139140The fox in Mr Bernanke appears to have made peace with the hedgehog. 141His most important audience today was his own colleagues. He needs not 142just their votes but their full-throated verbal endorsement of the Fed's 143next move in their speeches they make afterwards. What most outsiders 144can't appreciate about the job of Fed chairman is that among his unwritten 145responsibilities is maintaining the integrity and credibility of his 146institution for his successors. There are two ways this can be lost: by 147doing too little in the face of either too high unemployment or inflation; 148the other is by doing too much, with activism that prompts a backlash 149against the institution, constraining its ability to act again. If Mr 150Bernanke has calculated correctly, he has found a path between the two. 151152153154155156157158159Barren rocks, barren nationalism160THE wave of anti-Japanese protests that has erupted across China, after 161tit-for-tat landings by ultranationalists on uninhabited islands which 162the Japanese call the Senkakus and the Chinese the Diaoyus, is alarming. 163It is a reminder of how a barren group of disputed rocks could upend 164pain-staking progress in the difficult relations between Asia’s two 165biggest powers (see article). And the spat even raises the spectre of a 166conflict that could conceivably draw in America.167168History always weighs heavily in East Asia, so it is essential to 169understand the roots of the squabble. China has never formally controlled 170the Senkakus, and for most Japanese, blithely forgetful of their country’171s rapacious, imperial past, possession is nine-tenths of the law. Yet the 172islands’ history is ambiguous. The Senkakus first crept into the record 173lying in the Chinese realm, just beyond the Ryukyu kingdom, which in the 1741870s was absorbed by Japan and renamed Okinawa. The Chinese emperor 175objected to Japanese attempts to incorporate the Senkakus into Okinawa, 176but in 1895 Japan did it unilaterally. After Japan’s defeat in 1945 the 177Americans took over Okinawa’s administration, along with the Senkakus. 178In the 1951 peace treaty between Japan and the United States, as well as 179in the agreement to return Okinawa in 1972, the Senkakus’ sovereignty 180was left vague (Taiwan claims them too). The Americans say the dispute 181is for the parties to resolve amicably.182Three decades ago that looked possible. Deng Xiaoping, the architect 183of China’s modernisation, recognised the risks. When he signed a Treaty 184of Peace and Friendship with Japan in 1978, the two countries agreed to 185kick the Senkakus into the long grass. “Our generation”, Deng said, “is 186not wise enough to find common language on this question. The next 187generation will be wiser.” His hopes have been dashed.188189Chinese maritime power is growing, in ways that not only challenge 190Japan’s control of the Senkakus (but also worry other countries that have 191maritime disputes with China). Maritime law has evolved with exclusive 192economic zones around territories (see article). So all the islets have 193become more valuable. The current squabble began when the right-wing 194governor of Tokyo declared that the metropolitan government would buy the 195Senkakus from their indebted private owner, the better to assert Japanese 196sovereignty. Not to be seen as weak, Yoshihiko Noda, the prime minister, 197retorted that the Japanese government would buy them instead.198199The natural solution200201What can be done? Neither side wants to jeopardise good relations, let 202alone go to war, over the Senkakus. But the fact that there is a (remote) 203danger of conflict should prompt both governments to do two things. The 204long-term task is to defang the more poisonous nationalist serpents in 205both countries’ politics. In Japan that means producing honest textbooks 206so that schoolchildren can discover what their predecessors did. In China 207(no promulgator of honest textbooks itself) the government must abandon 208its habit of using Japanophobia as an outlet for populist anger, when 209modern Japan has been such a force for peace and prosperity in Asia. But 210the priority now is to look for ways to minimise the chances of 211unwished-for conflict, especially in seas swarming with rival vessels. 212213At a minimum that means not only having hotlines between the two 214governments, but also cast-iron commitments from the Chinese always to 215pick up the phone. A mechanism to deal with maritime issues between the 216two countries was set up last year, but crumbled when put to the test. 217Ideally, both sides should make it clear that military force is not an 218option. China should undertake not to send official vessels into Japanese 219waters, as it still occasionally does, and deal more forcefully with 220militaristic sabre-rattlers like the general who suggested using the 221Senkakus for bombing practice. Back in 2008 the two countries agreed on 222a framework for the joint development of disputed gasfields in the East 223China Sea, though China unpicked this good work when a Chinese trawler 224rammed a Japanese coastguard vessel near the Senkakus in 2010.225226As for the Senkakus themselves, Mr Noda’s proposal to buy them would 227have value if accompanied by a commitment to leave them unvisited. And 228it would be easier to face down the nationalists if America acknowledged 229its own past role in sweeping competing claims over the Senkakus under 230the carpet. Our own suggestion is for governments to agree to turn the 231Senkakus and the seas round them—along with other rocks contested by 232Japan and South Korea—into pioneering marine protected areas. As well 233as preventing war between humans, it would help other species. Thanks to 234decades of overfishing, too few fish swim in those waters anyway.235236237238CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A day after fumbling a predictable and 239straightforward question posed by Mitt Romney last week —are Americans 240better off than they were four years ago — the Obama campaign provided 241a response on Monday that it said would be hammered home during the 242Democratic convention here this week: “Absolutely.”243The focus on the campaign’s handling of the question, after halting 244and contradictory responses from Democrats on Sunday, complicated the 245White House’s effort to begin striking a set of themes the president 246intends to highlight here and carry through the general election.247That effort starts with an argument that Mr. Romney, the Republican 248nominee, would raise taxes on the middle class while cutting them for the 249wealthy. It seeks to pitch forward to the next four years the case that 250Mr. Obama and his allies have made over the spring and summer —that Mr. 251Romney’s business caree r showed him intent on profit even at the expense 252of workers and that his wealth has given him tax advantages not enjoyed 253by regular people.254“The problem is everybody’s already seen his economic playbook,” Mr. 255Obama said at a campaign stop in Ohio before a Labor Day audience largely 256consisting of United Auto Workers union members. “On first down he hikes 257taxes by nearly $2,000 on the average family with kids in order to pay 258for a massive tax cut for multimillionaires.”259The Obama campaign began running a new commercial making the same point, 260and asserting, “The middle class is carrying a heavy load in America, 261but Romney doesn’t see it.”262As delegates streamed in for the opening of the convention on Tuesday, 263Mr. Obama and his team were putting the finishing touches on a program 264that requires a different kind of political daring from the one they showed 265four years ago, when Mr. Obama gave his speech in a stadium on a stage 266compared by some to a Greek temple.267This week Mr. Obama is planning to undertake a tricky two-step of 268convincing wavering supporters being aggressively courted by Mr. Romney 269that they made the right decision in choosing him four years ago and that 270he has the country on its way to a sustainable recovery even if they do 271not always feel it. He will make the argument in an outdoor stadium again, 272on Thursday night under the threat of rain, but aides say there will be 273no Greek columns.274Obama campaign aides indicated they were moving into a new phase, 275applying their case that Mr. Romney has no history of looking out for the 276middle class to the question of what the next four years would look like 277under a Romney presidency.278But Republicans showed that they were not going to give Mr. Obama a free 279ride this week, with Mr. Romney’s running mate, Representati ve Paul D. 280Ryan, coming to North Carolina to keep the focus on the last four years. 281“The president can say a lot of things, and he will, but he can’t tell 282you that you’re better off,” Mr. Ryan said on Monday at a rally in 283Greenville, N.C. “Simply put, the Jimmy Carter years look like the good 284old days compared to where we are right now.”285Mr. Obama’s aides initially appeared to stumble when television 286interviewers asked them to respond to Mr. Romney’s charge in his 287nomination acceptance speech Thursday night that Americans were not 288better off under Mr. Obama.289On Fox News Channel, Mr. Obama’s top strategist, David Axelrod, said, 290“We’re in a better position than we were four years ago in our economy.” 291But Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, a Democrat, answered “no” on 292CBS’s “Face the Nation,” though he blamed Republicans. Other aides 293equivocated.294Mr. O’Malley provided another answer on Monday on CNN: “We are clearly 295better off as a country because we’re creating jobs rather than losing 296them. We have not recovered all that we lost in the Bush recession. That’s 297why we need to continue to move forward.”298In fact, on Monday the campaign settled on a definitive answer of, as 299the deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter put it, “Absolutely.”300301302。