价值管理-麦肯锡公司价值评估详细指导(英文版)

A Tutorial on the McKinsey Model for

V aluation of Companies

L.Peter Jennergren∗

Fourth revision,August26,2002

SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration No.1998:1

Abstract

All steps of the McKinsey model are outlined.Essential steps are:calculation of free cashflow,forecasting of future accounting data(profit and loss accounts and

balance sheets),and discounting of free cashflow.There is particular emphasis on

forecasting those balance sheet items which relate to Property,Plant,and Equip-

ment.There is an exemplifying valuation included(of a company called McKay),

as an illustration.

Key words:Valuation,free cashflow,discounting,accounting data

JEL classification:G31,M41,C60

∗Stockholm School of Economics,Box6501,S-11383Stockholm,Sweden.The author is indebted to Joakim Levin,Per Olsson,and Kenth Skogsvik for discussions and comments.

1Introduction

This tutorial explains all the steps of the McKinsey valuation model,also referred to as the discounted cashflow model and described in Tom Copeland,Tim Koller,and Jack Murrin:Valuation:Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies(Wiley,New York; 1st ed.1990,2nd ed.1994,3rd ed.2000).The purpose is to enable the reader to set up a complete valuation model of his/her own,at least for a company with a simple structure (e.g.,a company that does not consist of several business units and is not involved in extensive foreign operations).The discussion proceeds by means of an extended valuation example.The company that is subject to the valuation exercise is the McKay company.

The McKay example in this tutorial is somewhat similar to the Preston example(con-cerning a trucking company)in Copeland et al.1990,Copeland et al.1994.However, certain simplifications have been made,for easier understanding of the model.In par-ticular,the capital structure of McKay is composed only of equity and debt(i.e.,no convertible bonds,etc.).The purpose of the McKay example is merely to present all essential aspects of the McKinsey model as simply as possible.Some of the historical income statement and balance sheet data have been taken from the Preston example. However,the forecasted income statements and balance sheets are totally different from Preston’s.All monetary units are unspecified in this tutorial(in the Preston example in Copeland et al.1990,Copeland et al.1994,they are millions of US dollars).

This tutorial is intended as a guided tour through one particular implementation of the McKinsey model and should therefore be viewed only as exemplifying:This is one way to set up a valuation model.Some modelling choices that have been made will be pointed out later on.However,it should be noted right away that the specification given below of net Property,Plant,and Equipment(PPE)as driven by revenues is actually taken from Copeland et al.2000.The previous editions of this book contain two alternative model specifications relating to investment in PPE(cf.Section15below;cf.also Levin and Olsson1995).

In one respect,this tutorial is an extension of Copeland et al.2000:It contains a more detailed discussion of capital expenditures,i.e.,the mechanism whereby cash is absorbed by investments in PPE.This mechanism centers on two particular forecast assumptions, [this year’s net PPE/revenues]and[depreciation/last year’s net PPE].1It is explained below how those assumptions can be specified at least somewhat consistently.On a related note,the treatment of deferred income taxes is somewhat different,and also more detailed,compared to Copeland et al.2000.In particular,deferred income taxes are related to a forecast ratio[timing differences/this year’s net PPE],and it is suggested how to set that ratio.

1Square brackets are used to indicate specific ratios that appear in tables in the spreadsheetfile.