基于灰色关联度的乌鲁木齐市旅游经济影响因素分析

第31卷第1期2019年3月塔里木大学学报

Journal of Tarim University

Vol.31No.1

Mar.2019

文章编号：1009-0568（2019）01-0038-08

基于灰色关联度的乌鲁木齐市

旅游经济影响因素分析

王钰1喻晓玲1,2*

（1塔里木大学经济与管理学院，新疆阿拉尔843300）

（2塔里木大学南疆经济社会发展研究院,新疆阿拉尔843300）

摘要文章以新疆乌鲁木齐市为研究对象，选取了乌鲁木齐市2006~2016年的旅游交通因子、经济支撑因子、旅游物质基础因子、人力资源因子、信息服务因子、对外开放因子6个方面10个指标。采用相关系数和灰色关联分析方法，对影响乌鲁木齐市旅游经济的相关因素及其重要性进行实证分析。研究结果表明：乌鲁木齐市旅游经济关键影响因素之间的灰色关联度从大到小为：客运周转量>乌鲁木齐市GDP>运输线路长度>三星及其以上酒店>第三产业从业人员>普通高校人数>互联网用户数>居民人均可支配收入>旅游人次>实际利用外资；对应的影响因子为：交通因子、经济支撑因子、物质基础因子、人力资源因子、信息服务因子和对外开放因子。影响乌鲁木齐市旅游经济的一级指标主要是经济支撑因子、交通因子；物质基础因子、人力资源因子是乌鲁木齐市旅游经济发展需要重点加强的两个方面，而信息服务因子和对外开放因子是制约乌鲁木齐市旅游经济效益增长的主要因素。

关键词旅游经济；相关系数；灰色关联分析；影响因素；乌鲁木齐市

中图分类号：F590文献标识码：A DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-0568.2019.01.007 Based on Grey Correlation Degree of Urunqi City Tourism

Economic Impact Factor Analysis

Wang Yu1Yu Xiaoling1,2*

(1College of Economics&Management，Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang843300)

(2Academy of Economic and Social Development of Southern Xinjiang,Tarim University,Alar,Xinjiang843300) Abstract The paper takes Urumqi City,Xinjiang as the research object,and selects10indicators from six aspects of Urumqi from 2006to2016,including tourism transportation factor,economic support factor,tourism material basis factor,human resources factor,in⁃formation service factor,and and opening up factor.By using correlation coefficient and grey correlation analysis.This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relevant factors and their importance that affect tourism economy in Urumqi.The results show that the grey correlation degree between the key factors of tourism economy in Urumqi is from large to small as passenger turnover>GDP of Urumqi>transport route length>three stars and above Hotels>tertiary industry employees>number of universities>Internet us⁃ers>per capita disposable income of urban residents>per capita of rural residents.Disposable income>actual utilization of foreign capital,the corresponding impact factors are:economic support factor,transportation factor,material basis factor,human resources fac⁃tor,information service factor and opening up factor.The primary indicators affecting Urumqi's tourism economy are mainly economic support factors and transportation factors;the material basis factors and human resources factors may be the two aspects of Urumqi's tourism economic development that need to be strengthened,while the information service factors and the opening-up factors restrict the growth of Urumqi's tourism economy.

收稿日期：2018-05-30

作者简介：王钰（1994-），女，2017级在读硕士研究生，研究方向为特色产业经济。E-mail:1454057238@

*为通讯作者E-mail:1563104855@