我国汽车行业发展趋势分析及预测

近几年来我国汽车工业增长速度之快，发展势头之猛，令世人惊叹。随着科学技术的不断应用于汽车工业中，汽车的结构在不断地改进，生产技术也在不断提高和更新。汽车的设备制造的水平越来越高、汽车的性能不断完善、汽车技术逐渐向电子信息化、智能化、网络化等方向发展。

在汽车产销量快速增长的背后，各大企业、各种车型的市场份额博弈将更加激烈，日系车愈发强势、新能源汽车不断涌现都将在新的一年深入发展。

伴随着汽车销售利润的大幅缩水，汽车销售服务领域也在发生深刻变化。本文将通过各种评判指标分析我国汽车市场发展中存在的问题，以及如何采取措施。

本文首先通过多汽车市场所处的国内环境和现状进行分析，来发现影响汽车市场发展的因素。然后通过数据的收集、计算，从销售率、进口增长率、进口额占销售总量的比重、销售额增长率与GDP增长率之比这四个方面指标对我国汽车市场进行分析研究。得出结论，我国汽车产业正处于高速发展阶段，同时对国民经济的发展做出了贡献。正是在这个关键时刻，我们更应该制定相应的政策应对汽车市场的发展，建立健全的汽车行业政策制度，为汽车行业的发展提供保障。

关键词：汽车、产销量、发展对策

Amazing growth in the world automobile industry in China in recent years has the speed of the fierce momentum. Structure of the car with the constant application of science and technology and continuous improvement, production technology is improving and updating. The level of the car more and more equipment, and constantly improve the performance of motor vehicles, automotive technology is increasingly to electronic information, intelligence, networking and other direction.

Major companies, various models of the market share game will be because of the rapid growth of automobile production and sales even more intense. Japanese cars become more powerful, emerging new energy vehicles will be further development in the new year.

Automotive sales and service sector is also undergoing profound changes, along with car sales profit has shrunk dramatically. This evaluation will be through the development of China's auto market indicators of the problems and how to take measures.

We found that the factors that influence the development of the automotive market by the domestic automobile market environment and to analyze the situation. Then the analysis of China's automobile market studied the data collection, calculation, from the sales rate, import growth, imports accounted for the proportion of total sales, sales growth and GDP growth in the ratio of these four indicators. China's auto industry is in a stage of rapid development, while contributing to the development of national economy. We should formulate appropriate policy responses to the development of the automotive market, establish and improve policies and systems to the automotive industry, the development of the automotive industry to protect South Korea, at this critical moment.

Key words: automotive, production and sales, development strategy

目录

前言 (4)

一、我国汽车市场面临的现状 (5)

（一）我国汽车行业发展的国内环境 (5)

（二）汽车市场的主要特征 (5)

（三）汽车市场的现状 (6)

(四) 消费现状 (8)

二、我国汽车市场评判指标的实证分析 (11)

（一）销售率指标分析 (12)

（二）进口增长率与进口额占销售总量的比重分析 (13)

（三）销售额增长率与GDP增长率指标分析 (14)

（四）基尼系数指标分析 (15)

三、影响汽车销售的因素分析 (16)

（一）各项指标的相关分析 (16)

（二）构建数学模型 (18)

（三）各项指标的回归分析 (19)

（四）单个指标的相关分析及回归分析 (21)

（五）对汽车产业发展的预测 (28)

四、相关政策建议 (28)

（一）企业层面：市场导向，竞争为先 (29)

（二）消费者层面：理性消费，培养资源节约型消费模式 (30)

（三）政府层面：转变政府职能，完善宏观调控 (31)

结论 (33)

致谢 (34)

参考文献 (35)