CGE模型

Size C
Joint Production Matrix I MAKE
7
Model Simulations
Historical + Forecast simulations = How does the Chinese economy evolves over time
About this training course
First four days
1. Lectures about the economic meanings of the model system 2. Computing sessions to learn:
1. GEMPACK and RunDynam 2. Get to know the model database 3. Get to know the model variables and equations 4. Get to know the model closures 5. Get to know the baseline and policy
A1 (V) * v1 A2 (V) * v 2 0
v1 A1 ( V ) * A 2 ( V ) * v 2
1
The Equation System
F(V(t)) = 0
,
We always have an initial solution from the Input-Output data:
F( V ) 0
DYNAMICS VIA A SEQUENCE OF SOLUTIONS
y ear 0 _ V (0) y ear 1 _ V (1) y ear 2 _ V (2) . . . . .
பைடு நூலகம்
Initial solution
=
Johansen/Euler com putation
m ove exogenous variables = from y ear-0 to y ear-1 values
C = Number of Commodities I = Number of Industries S = 2: Domestic,Imported O = Number of Occupation Types M = Number of Commodities used as Margins
Import Duty Size C 1 V0TAR
What skills to pick up?
1. Using GEMPACK and RunDynam 2. Structure of the database (economic meanings) 3. Structure of the model equations (economic meanings) 4. Model closures (economic meanings) 5. BOTE analysis (think in terms of a mathematical system) 6. Thinking about economic issues with a comprehensive framework in mind
About this training course
Second four days
1. How to construct a baseline 2. How to analyse simulation results 3. Practice BOTE analysis
Hands on practice with historical simulation and basic test simulations: 1. Set up the simulations: closure and shock 2. Analyse the simulation results 3. Presentation of the simulation results
Econo mic Variabl es
Policy scenario
Effects of a policy change
20 02
Baseline scenario: historical simulation 2009
Baseline scenario: forecast simulation 2020
m ove exogenous variables from y ear-1 to y ear-2 values
=
Required solution
V(1)
V(2)
Model Database
Size Basic Flows Margins Taxes Labour Capital Land Production Tax Other Costs CS CSM CS O 1 1 1 1 1 Producers I V1BAS V1MAR V1TAX V1LAB V1CAP V1LND V1PTX V1OCT 2 3 Investors Household I 1 V2BAS V2MAR V2TAX V3BAS V3MAR V3TAX 4 5 6 Export Government Inventories 1 1 1 V4BAS V4MAR V4TAX V5BAS V5MAR V5TAX V6BAS n/a n/a
MONASH-style Dynamic CGE Modeling for Practical Policy Analysis
Centre of Policy Studies
Introduction
Model Equations
F(V(t)) = 0
Model Closure
A(V) * v 0
How to build up the skills?
Practice…practice…and practice, feel free to make mistakes 1. Basic training course 2. Practice with real policy questions in mind (small changes to model and database) 3. Model and database development work for the purpose of policy analysis 4. Thinking in terms of a comprehensive system