基于财务报表分析的企业风险识别方法研究

对外经济贸易大学硕士学位论文基于财务报表分析的企业风险识别方法研究姓名：徐佩云申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：张新民 20080501 摘要财务风险是与企业价值活动密切相关的微观经济风险，作为现代企业全面市场竞争的产物，财务风险已经无法避免。因此，企业财务风险管理已经成为现代企业管理的一项重要内容。作为财务风险管理的第一步也是相当重要的环节，企业财务风险的识别变得犹为重要。本文在企业财务分析和财务风险管理基础理论之上，建立并阐述了通过财务报表识别企业财务风险这一系统的分析方法，并以济南钢铁为例，对这一方法进行了实证检验。通过财务报表识别企业财务风险，主要是以资产负债表、利润表和现金流量表为基础，分析其内部与财务风险相关的因素以及他们之间的相互关系，以此识别企业所面临的财务风险水平，从而为企业财务风险的防范、规避以及化解等一系列后续的财务风险管理活动打下良好的基础。对于资产负债表，提出了与财务风险密切相关的短期偿债能力和长期偿债能力（即资本结构）这两个重要的因素。同时也剖析了对于企业长期偿债能力中，企业的资产结构及其与资本结构的构成关系对于财务风险的影响。对于利润表，阐述了利润的形成过程、总体结构以及持续盈利能力对于财务风险识别的影响。对于现金流量表，通过分析现金流量的结构性、流动性以及获取现金能力等几个方面，系统

阐述了基于现金流量表的财务风险识别方法。基于上述理论基础，本文通过对济南钢铁公司财务报表的分析，指出了其所面临的财务风险。资产负债表中反映出来的短期和长期的偿债压力都已经十分严重，特别是资本结构和资产结构的不合理性，增加了企业的财务风险水平。利润表中除了营业结构存在不合理的地方，其他因素对于财务风险的影响并不是分严重。而现金流量表中突显的财务风险已经反映在结构性、流动性和获取现金能力等几个主要方面。经营活动现金流量的不充分，投资活动和筹资活动的不合理，现金流量对债务、利息和股利等的保障程度以及投入资源产生现金能力的削弱都是我们需要密切关注的风险区域。关键词：财务风险；财务报表分析；识别；济南钢铁公司 I AbstractFinancial risk is a micro-economic risk which is closely related to the value ofenterprise it has been unavoidable as the result of total market competition. So thefinancial risk management has become an important component of modern enterprisemanagement. As the first step and also very important aspect of corporate financial riskfinancial risk identification is becoming more and more important. Based on the basictheory of financial analysis and financial risk management this article establishes andexpounds the

system method of financial risk identification based on the financialstatement analysis and tests on the case of Jinan Iron and Steel Company.Financial risk identification based on the financial statement analysis is mainly toanalyze the internal factors and the interrelationships of the balance sheet incomestatement and cash flow statement which are related to the financial risk and thenidentify the level of company’s financial risk setting a good foundation for the series offollow-up financial risk management activities such as avoiding and resolving. For thebalance sheet this article proposes two important factors: the short-term solvency

andlong-term solvency that is capital structure and also analyze the impact of assetstructure and its relationship with capital structure in the long-term solvency For theincome statement analyzes the impact of financial risk identification on the aspect ofthe formation of the profits the overall structure and the continued profitability. Forthe cash flow statement expounds the financial risk identification method throughanalyzing the structure liquidity and capacity

of access to cash.Based on the above theory this article points out that the financial risks they are facingthrough the analysis of Jinan Iron and Steel Company financial statements. Thebalance sheet reflects that the short-term and long-term debt pressures have been veryserious especially the irrational of the capital structure and asset structure increasesthe level of financial risk. The impact on financial risk of the income statement is notvery serious except the irrational of the sales revenue. The cash flow statementhighlights the financial risks which are reflected in the structural mobility andcapacity of access to cash etc. The insufficient cash flow of business activities theunreasonable of investing and financing activities the cash flow protection for the debtinterest dividends and the capacity of resource generating cash all of those are theregions we need to focus on for the financial risk.Keywords: Financial Risk Financial statement Analysis Identification Jinan Iron and Steel Company II 学位论文原创性声明本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文，是本人在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的成