2016年上外MTI最全真题汇总首发(三科全有!!)

2016 上外翻硕英语基础真题

I. Cloze Here's

why the 'American century' will survive rise of China

In 1941, Time editor Henry Luce proclaimed “the American century”. Some now see this coming to an end 1.as a result of the nation’s economic and political decline. Many point to the example of US failure to convince its allies to stay out of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Beijing’s rival to the World Bank; but this was 2.more of an example of a faulty decision than evidence of decline, which raises the question of what is the natural life cycle of a nation.

A century is generally the limit for a human organism, but countries are social constructs. Rome did not collapse until more than three centuries after it reached its apogee of power in 117AD. After American independence in 1776, Horace Walpole, the British politician, lamented that his nation had been reduced to the level of Sardinia, just as Britain was about to enter the industrial revolution that 3.powered its second century as a global power.

Any effort at assessing American power in the coming decades should 4.take into account how many earlier efforts had been wide of the mark. It is chastening to remember how wildly 5.exaggerated US estimates of Soviet power in the 1970s and of Japanese power in the 1980s were. Today, some see the Chinese as 10 feet tall and proclaim this “the Chinese century”.

China’s size and relatively rapid economic growth will bring it closer to the US in terms of its power resources in the next few decades. But this does not necessarily mean it will surpass the US in military, economic and soft power.

6.Even if China suffers no big domestic political setback, many projections are simple linear extrapolations of growth rates that are likely to slow in the future.

7.Moreover, economic projections are one dimensional. They ignore US military and soft power advantages, such as the desire of students around the world to attend US universities. They also overlook China’s geopolitical

8.disadvantages in the Asian balance of power, compared with America’s relations with Europe, Japan and India, which are likely to remain more favourable.

It is not impossible that a challenger such as China, Europe, Russia, India or Brazil will surpass the US in the first half of this century, but it is not likely.

On the question of absolute rather than 9.relative American decline, the US faces serious problems in areas such as debt, secondary education, income in equality and political gridlock, but these are only part of the picture. On the positive side of the ledger are favourable trends in demography, technology and energy as well as abiding factors such as geography and entrepreneurial culture.

The scenarios that could 10.precipitate decline include ones in which the US overreacts to terrorist attacks by turning inwards and thus cuts itself off from the strength it obtains from openness. Alternatively, it could react by overcommitting itself and wasting blood and treasure as it did in Vietnam and Iraq.

As an overall assessment, describing the 21st century as one of American decline is inaccurate and misleading. Though the US has problems it is not in absolute decline, unlike ancient Rome, and it is likely to remain more powerful than any single state in coming decades.