人民币升值外文译文
人民币升值的影响外文翻译
The impact of RMB appreciationAs the comprehensive strength of the national economy grows, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB) began to appreciate. Effects of the RMB's appreciation since July have been felt both domestically and abroad, and will become even more significant with time. China should embrace the new opportunities that appreciation has opened-up and allow more room for the national economy to grow in the process of globalization.People need to be aware that the appreciation of the RMB may have some less desirable effects on economic growth in the short term. Currently, China's export market still relies heavily on cheap labor to compete in the international market. As its added value is low, the appreciation of the RMB will affect China's export and consequently the overall growth rate of the national economy. However, there are also many positive aspects to the appreciation of the RMB. In the long run, RMB appreciation will generate more development opportunities. People will feel richer, it will improve China's status and influence in the world economy and it will change the commodity structure and the flow of investment. It will also have a significant influence on the structure of domestic production resources.First of all, it will accelerate industrial upgrading. In a market economy, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate involves the international balance of incomes and expenses and is an important price indicator. The appreciation of the RMB means that the price of various domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and domestic industry. RMB appreciation will gradually change the value of the international and domestic markets. Domestic enterprises will rely more on sales to the domestic market so that national economic growth is less dependent on export demand and a more reasonable industrial structure will form.Secondly, it will promote technical innovation. In many countries, technical innovation relies primarily on a market mechanism which makes good use of price as a lever. China's production process is enormously costly in terms of resources and energy, and labor is too cheap. The appreciation of the RMB will cause an increase in the domestic prices of such things as land and labor as well stimulate the demand for innovation. Products for export must rely on technological innovation to be more competitive internationally. In the domestic market, enterprises are also forced tocompete through technological innovation. Simply speaking, the appreciation of the RMB will cause the formation of a market environment that is conducive to speeding up technological innovation.Thirdly, the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the people. On the one hand, it will make imported products relatively cheaper. It will also be cheaper for Chinese to travel abroad. This will increase consumption. On the other hand, it will push up the market price of domestic financial assets, changing the financial market structure. If other conditions don't change, Chinese people will feel richer as the value of their money grows and further stimulates domestic demand. Of greater strategic significance is the fact that the appreciation of the RMB will make the price Chinese labor price higher.RMB appreciation reflects the success of Chinese economic development after reform and opening up. It is also an important turning point in China's social and economic situation. The downsides to RMB appreciation shouldn't be overemphasized. The fluctuation of the RMB is the result of changes to the current economic structure and will have an important impact on the economic structure of the future. Maintaining the status quo is short-sighted and will harm the long-term interests of China. The best choice is to speed up the transformation of the economic growth mode and adapt to the appreciation of RMB to make the most from the process.With the announcement of reforming the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21, 2005, great attention has been paid to the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade. Since China being in the transition from pegging to a managed floating regime, no existing approximate model and method can be utilized to investigate this question directly. In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a study on this issue, coupled with the introduction of the substituted valuables: Japanese yen and Euro exchange rate. Our results show that RMB’s appreciation would not bring severe effects on China’s trade in 2005; however, the possible sustained reduction of export growth in 2006 should be paid more attention. It is also necessary and urgent to press forward with the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, and put up the related supporting policies to avoid such sudden fluctuation as the Japanese situation after “Plaza Accord”.The RMB exchange rate became a hot topic after the announcement of exchangerate regime reform on July 21, 2005. The new regime, a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, allows RMB to rise by 2%, with a daily 0.3% trading band based on the price of the previous day. With its rapid development, China’s economy has become an increasingly important element in the global economic development and integration. Against this backdrop, the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade attract great attention.Before this reform of RMB, there has emerged a vast theoretical literature concentrated on the impacts of RMB’s revaluation. However, relatively little research has been undertaken on the empirical analysis of this issue. Cyn-Young Park (2005), an economist in Asian Development Bank, analyzed macroeconomic impact of a “one-off ” appreciation of the RMB against the dollar using the Oxford Economic Forecasting model. This work may shed light on the dynamics between global imbalances and revaluation. The OEF model framework allows simulation analyses based on the global econometric structure, which will provide some quantitative results for the impacts of a revaluation on the concerned economies, such as the PRC, Japan, US, and other Asian countries. The stability of equilibrium state may be damaged when the regime shifts, which, however, cannot be studied in this model. Zhang, a researcher in Chinese Academy of these results suggested that the impact of a revaluation on China’s economy might change in the proportion of an appreciation’s scale. In fact, in the short term, the reasonableness of this proportionate result should be doubted.The main body of existing literature, however, has so far mostly centered on quantitative discussion describing the relation between trade and exchange rate. There has been surprisingly little empirical work that focus on the exchange rate regime shift, especially from pegging to the US dollar to a managed floating regime, No existing appropriate model or method can be found to support this kind of research directly. Therefore, some indirect methods should be experimented for studying this issue with the substitute variables introduced.In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a sensitivity analysis of China’s trade to the appreciation of RMB. The first type of scenarios is a hypothetic scenario being related with the current appreciation of RMB by 2%; while the second one that belongs to the historical scenario is based on the historical event---the Japanese yen’s variability after subscribing “Plaza Accord”.The remaining part of thispaper is organized as follows. The theory and method of scenario analyses are introduced in Section 2. Models and their evaluation are outlined in Section 3. Forecasting results from scenarios analyses are presented in Section 4.Scenario analysis (Committee on the Global Financial System, 2000) is a kind of stress testing which serves to estimate potential extreme losses of a portfolio value and give helpful suggestions to the decision makers in risk management of a company or a financial institution. Generally, scenario is a means to explore the future economic situation, and identify what might happen and how an organization can act or react upon future developments.The RMB’s appreciation should undoubtedly generate extensive and far-reaching implication for China’s economy, especially for exports. This research should be based on establishing and testing econometric models. We establish the evaluatd models for export and trading forms respectively. In the following empirical work, these models are used in the scenario analysis of China’s trade. The sample data ar e collected over the period from Jan. 2005. Data on export and import are taken from China’s Customs Statistics. The exchange rate data are obtained from the University of British Columbia’s website.In this paper, the scenario analysis is used to analyze the effects of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade in 2005 and 2006. Our evidence shows that China’s exports would continue to keep a strong increasing trend in the hypothetical scenario being a one-off appreciation of 2%. Seen from the current situation about RMB, the similar favorable results may be expected to occur if RMB exchange rate regime would mark a sound operation. Therefore, we conclude that China’s eaports would not be affected much by the current appreciation of RMB, and would keep an increasi ng trend in 2005. On the other hand, despite the rapid development of China’s exports which not only benefit from China’s strong economic development, but also from the strong international competitiveness of export goods, there still exist the risk due to the obvious sustained drop of growth in 2006, which may impede the rapid growth of exports. Domestic demand should also be promoted to counteract the risk from the fluctuation of international market.By People's Daily Online; The author, Chen Feixiang, is the Director of the Economic and Financial Deparment of Tongji University.JEL Classification: C53, F17, F31Key words: RMB’s appreciation, China’s trade, Scenario analysis人民币升值的影响因为中国的国民综合经济实力不断增长，中国的货币——人民币也开始升值。
人民币升值外文译文
《xx货币：经济问题分析》概述诸多经济学家争论着人民币升值是有助于恢复世界经济平衡的一个重要因素。
他们还敦促中国实施政策使消费者要求，而非出口和固定资产投资，这一主要经济增长来源。
有人认为人民币升值是促进中国进口额的一种方式，可以促成全球经济的快速复苏。
中国官员承认再平衡经济的需求，他们强烈反对国际上对升值和通货的压力，称之为“贸易保护主义”。
有人把这一政策归于关心中国政府实施政策改变过快导致社会不稳定。
当奥巴马政权已迫使中国升值其货币时，也鼓励它继续购买美国国债。
截止2010年7月中国共持有8470亿美元国债，是美国最大的国债持有国。
一些分析显示尽管中国的货币升值能够推动美国对中国的出口，它也可以减少中国购买美国国债的需要，能够提高美国的利率。
这将导致中国制造产品提高对美国消费者的价格，同样提高对于中国制造的输入美国公司生产他们产品的价格。
诸多经济学家分析，即使中国显著地升值其货币，美国也仍需增加其储备并减少国内需求（特别是预算赤字），为了减少长期的贸易不平衡，中国将不得不降低其储备并增加消费。
xx货币的历史背景在1994年之前，中国保持着双重汇率制度。
由一个官方的固定汇率制度（由政府使用）和由进出口商在外汇掉期市场使用的一篮子货币制度所构成，尽管为了进口管制极大地限制了外汇所得，导致出现大规模外汇黑市。
这两个汇率有显著区别。
1993年官方兑美元汇率为5.77元与此相对的是外汇掉期市场上的8.7元。
中国的双重汇率制度（以及其他政策）因限制了中国在外国方面的进口而受美国批评。
1994年，中国政府统一了两种汇率制度，最初为兑美元8.7元，最后到1997年为止被允许升值到8.28并相对稳定到2005年7月。
人民币在活期存款（交易）的基础上变得可自由兑换，但非固定资产账户，这意味着元对于投资目的而言不是通常可以获得的。
自1994年至2005年，中国维持了人民币紧盯美元政策意图给中国的外贸和投资改善相对稳定的环境（这个政策防止汇率的大波动）———一个许多发展中国家在它们发展初级阶段所使用的政策。
校园口语第133课：中美汇率大战,人民币升值
校园口语第133课：中美汇率大战,人民币升值美国国会参议院近日宣布推迟相关人民币汇率法案的全院最终投票。
人民币汇率问题再次成为世人瞩目的焦点话题。
这并非美国国会首次发难人民币汇率问题，每当美国经济不振、国内不满情绪上升时，一些人即将人民币汇率作为攻击的靶子，希望以此缓解国内情绪。
来看一则China Daily的报道：Even if the measure passed a floor vote in the Senate, it needs to get approval from the House before it could reach the president for being signed into law.即使该政策通过了美国参议院的全院表决，仍需得到众议院通过，才能经由总统签字生效。
文中的floor vote就是指就某项法案在参议院会场投票表决，也称为“全院表决”，或者“院会投票”，floor在这指的是full assembly（整个参议院，全体议员）。
Floor还能够用来指议会的议员席；会议上的发言权例如：He asked the chairman for the floor. （他要求主席允许他发言。
）类似的说法还有floor debate（会场辩论）、take the floor（在会议上发言；参加讨论）。
奥巴马指责中国currency manipulation（操纵货币），但并不支持制裁。
美国参议院周一通过了对一项法案的procedural vote（程序性投票），该法案旨在向中国施压，迫使其允许appreciation of the RMB（人民币升值）。
根据该法案，如果主要贸易伙伴的汇率被认为低估，美国将对其实施punitive tariffs（惩罚性关税）。
manipulate stock prices操控股价。
trade surplus贸易顺差trade deficit贸易逆差verbal battle口水战revaluation of the RMB对人民币汇率重新评估adjust renminbi exchange rate调整人民币汇率。
英语翻译练习-外刊中英文对照翻译赏析3
翻译练习-外刊中英文对照翻译赏析3Over to you, China看你的了，中国America has dampened a currency row with China. Now Beijing must let the yuan rise美国在同中国的汇率争论中变得低调。
现在北京当局必须要促使人民币升值了IT DID not win him friends in Congress, but Tim Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, was right to postpone a decision, due by April 15th, on whether or not to declare China a currency manipulator. By putting off the release of a semi-annual report on China’s exchange rate he defused, at least temporarily, Sino-American tension over the value of the yuan, which has been pegged tightly to the dollar since July 2008. Even better, he did so in a way that maximises the odds of a resolution of the currency problem.美国财政部长盖特纳推迟了本应该在4月15号公布的是否将中国定义为汇率操纵国的决议，这一决定虽然没有得到国会的支持但其正确性毋庸置疑。
通过搁置关于中国汇率的半年度报告，盖特纳至少暂时缓和了中美双方在人民币币值上的紧张情绪，人民币对美元价在2008年7月后就一直持稳。
此举更妙的地方在于，盖特纳用了一种最有可能解决币值问题的方法来处理这个问题。
外文翻译------人民币升值对股价的影响
中文3300字本科毕业论文外文原文外文题目：The Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on Stock Prices inChina 出处：Emerging Markets Finance & Trade作者：Chien-Chung Nieh and Hwey-Yun YauABSTRACT: Since removal of the peg in July 2005, China has entered a new era of a managed floating exchange rate system. Although many observers have raisedimpact ct of such a policy change on China’s trade surplus, less concerns about the impaattention has been paid to its effects on financial markets. This paper investigates the impact of recent renminbi appreciation on stock prices in China since removal of the peg, using threshold cointegration and momentum threshold error-correction model(M-TECM). The results clearly illustrate that no short-run causal relation exists, andan asymmetric causal relationship running from the renminbi/U.S. dollar exchangerate to Chinese Shanghai A-share stock prices in the long run is based on M-TECM. Policy and the broader implications of the findings are discussed.KEY WORDS: asymmetric causality, exchange rates, momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM), stock prices.China’s currency, the r enminbi (RMB), which for the previous decade was tightly pegged at RMB8.28 to the U.S. dollar, was revalued to RMB8.11 per U.S. dollar on July 21,2005. Following removal of the peg, due in part to political pressurefrom the United States and the United Kingdom, the Chinese authorities also announced that the renminbi would be pegged to a basket of foreign currencies, ratherthan being strictly tied to the U.S. dollar (USD), and it would be allowed to float within a narrow 0.3 percent daily band against this basket.The revaluation of the RMB/USD exchange rate has marked a new era of amanaged floating exchange rate system. The significance of exchange rate system reform is that the shift to a flexible exchange rate regime, especially the adoption of acurrency band that refers to a basket of currencies, provides the monetary authorities with a certain degree of freedom in implementing policies. The new system wouldmost likely act as a crawling peg, rather than being strictly fixed, allowing Chinagreater flexibility either through adjustments in the crawling peg regime that has involved the basket of currencies or through reweighting of the basket. Observers have frequently suggested that the yuan is undervalued, often on the basis of purchasing power parity arguments (Cline 2005; Goldstein 2004; Goldstein and Lardy 2006), contributing to growing large trade surpluses and portfolio capital inflows. As investment (both domestic and foreign) boomed in 2003––4 and inflation accelerated, investment (both domestic and foreign) boomed in 2003some argued that rapid RMB appreciation would be helpful in dealing with theincreasing pressure of domestic inflation on the economy (Frankel 2007; McKinnon2006).However, it was also argued that further RMB appreciation might bring asignificant decline in China’s exports. Hence, Chinese policymakers have been facingthe dilemma of choosing between the two options (i.e., RMB appreciation vs.depreciation). Credible, gradual RMB appreciation is recommended as an alternative strategy (see Kutan and Tsai 2007).Although much attention has been focused on trade flows, Chinese policymakers face a similar dilemma in terms of the impact of expected renminbi appreciation on domestic financial markets, in particular, the stock market. For instance, if the exchange rate appreciates, exporters are likely to lose competitiveness on international markets, causing a drop in profits and hence in stock prices. On the other hand, depreciation of the renminbi is likely to cause importers to lose competitiveness on domestic markets (consumers may not be able to afford ―higher pricedǁ imported products), causing a decline in profits and hence in stock prices.Due to the mutual effects of exchange rates on stock prices, the impact of recent changes in the renminbi on domestic stock prices is an important concern in policy circles and among investors. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues and examine whether an asymmetric causal relationship exists between the RMB/USD exchange rate and stock prices since removal of the peg.Literature ReviewThe issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related has long been studied. Two major theories, the traditional and portfolio approaches, are applied totest the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices. The traditionalapproach argues that a depreciation of domestic currency makes local firms more competitive, which leads to an increase in exports, and consequently raises stock prices. The traditional approach implies that exchange rates lead stock prices. The portfolio approach, on the contrary, argues that an increase in stock prices induces investors to demand more domestic assets and thereby causes appreciation of the domestic currency, which implies that stock prices lead exchange rates. The ―stock-orientedǁ model of e xchange rates by Branson (1983) views the exchange rate as serving to equate supply and demand for assets such as stocks and bonds.Empirical evidence using both approaches has yielded no consensus on thevalidity of either theory. For example, Mok (1993) found weak bidirectional causalitybetween stock prices and exchange rates, while Bahmani-Oskooee and Sohrabian(1992) and Nieh and Lee (2001) argued for bidirectional causality between stock prices and exchange rates in the short run, but not in the long run. In addition, some studies found a weak or no association between stock prices and exchange rates (e.g., Bartov and Bodnar 1994; Fernandez 2006; Franck and Young 1972).More recently, it has been suggested that some of the mixed results may bedriven by extensive use of linear conventional time-series methodologies, which fail to consider information across regions, and thus lead to inefficient estimations and lower testing power. Recent studies therefore allow for a nonlinear causal relationship between the two variables and also use threshold cointegration methods, which further allow for nonlinear adjustment to long-run equilibrium (Balke and Fomby 1997). MethodologyThis paper employs threshold cointegration techniques as elaborated by Enders and Granger (1998) and Enders and Siklos (2001), which extend the residual-based, two-stage estimation method developed by Engle and Granger (1987). The difference between them lies in the formulation of linearity and nonlinearity from their second stage of unit-root tests. The nonlinear model of Enders and Granger (1998) and Enders and Siklos (2001) can be expressed asΔμt =I t ρ1μt-1+(1-+(1-It)ρIt)ρ2μt-1+Σγi Δμt-1+εt Equation (1) is basically a regime-switching model Equation (1) is basically a regime-switching model——a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model of the disequilibrium error, where the test for the threshold of the disequilibriumerror is termed a threshold cointegration test. The result of rejection ofthe null hypothesis of ρ1= ρ2 = 0 implies the existence of a cointegration relationship between the variables.This enables us to proceed with a further test for symmetric adjustment (i.e., H 0: ρ1 = ρ2), using a standard F -test. When the coefficients of regime adjustment are equal (symmetric adjustment), Equation (1) converges the prevalent augmented Dickey-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Rejecting both the null hypotheses of ρFuller (ADF) test. Rejecting both the null hypotheses of ρ1 = ρ2 = 0 and ρ1 = ρ2 implies the existence of threshold cointegration with asymmetric adjustment. Instead of estimating Equation (1) with the Heaviside indicator depending on the level of μt –1, the decay could also be allowed depending on the previous period’s change in μt –1. The Heaviside indicator could then be specified as I t = 1 if Dμt –1 ≥ τ and I t = 0 if Dμt –1 ≤τ. According to Enders and Granger (1998), this model is especially valuable when the adjustment is asymmetric, such that the series exhibits more ―momentumǁ in one direction than the other. This model is then termed a momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model. The TAR model is used to capture a deep-cycle process if, for example, positive deviations are more prolonged than negative deviations. On the other hand, the M-TAR model allows autoregressive decay to depend on Dμt –1. As such, M-TAR representation may capture sharp movements in a sequence. As there is generally no presumption as whether to use the TAR or M-TAR model, the recommendation is to select the adjustment mechanism by a model selection criterion such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or the Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC).Granger Causality TestsGiven the threshold cointegration results, we next apply the Granger causality tests using the advanced momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM). The M-TECM is expressed asΔY it =α+γ1Z t1+γ2Z t-t +ΣδiΔY 1t-i +Σθi ΔY 2t-i +νtBased on Equation (2), Granger causality tests are employed to examine whetherall coefficients of D Y1,t–i or D Y2,t–i are jointly statistically different from zero based on a standard F-test or whether the γj coefficients of the error-correction term are significant. Because Granger causality tests are sensitive to the selection of lag length, applying the AIC criterion to determine the appropriate lag lengths, we find empirically that the lag lengths of k1 and k2 equal two (i.e., k1 = k2 = 2). The results clearly illustrate that no short-run causal relationship exists between EX and CHStock (insignificant to reject both H0: 0: δδ1=δ2= 0 and H0: 0: θθ1=θ2= 0). Besides, there also exists a unidirectional causality running from EX to CHStock in the long run, when the difference in the previous disequilibrium term is above the threshold value of 0.0048. 0: θ1 = θ2 = γ1 = 0 is rejected at the 10 percent significance level.) On the otherat the 10 percent significance level.) On the other (H0: θ1 = θ2 = γ1 = 0 is rejectedhand, the null hypotheses of ofδδ1=δ2=γ1= 0，δ1=δ2=γ2= 0 and θ1=θ2=γ2= 0cannot be rejected. Furthermore, the significant finding rejecting the null hypothesis of γ1= γ2 in CHStock is consistent with the finding of our previous M-TART estimations and reconfirms the existence of an asymmetric causal relationship between the two variables considered. Nonetheless, the empirical results of conventional ECM estimations show that CHStock and EX are bidirectional causal related in the long run; whereas, there exists a unidirectional causality running from EX to CHStock in the short run.Conclusions and Policy ImplicationsThis paper investigates the causal relationship between the renminbi/U.S. dollar exchange rate and stock prices in China since removal of the peg. Our results can be summarized as follows: first, we find a threshold cointegration link between the exchange rate and Chinese stock prices. This finding implies that it is possible to predict one market from another, which is inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Second, there is a discontinuous adjustment to a long-run equilibrium in two separate regimes, indicating an asymmetric causal relationship between the two variables considered. Third, there exists a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rates to stock prices in the long run, suggesting that RMB/USD appreciation has a significant impact on stock prices. In particular, the estimated results show that the speed of the adjustment process toward equilibrium is faster in the Shanghai A-share stock market.The results have important implications. First, policymakers need to consider the impact of exchange rate changes on financial markets in designing appropriate policystrategies. Given that the exchange rate is no longer fixed, the authorities consider theimpact of exchange rate changes not only on trade flows but also on financial markets.Second, our results have broader theoretical implications. We find no evidence tosupport the portfolio approach. On the other hand, although the findings show aunidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rates to stock prices in thelong run, this does not completely follow using the traditional approach in theliterature either. The traditional approach argues that a depreciation of domesticcurrency makes local firms more competitive, leading to an increase in exports, andconsequently raising stock prices. On the contrary, the empirical results shown in thispaper reveal that the appreciation of exchange rates leads stock prices because mostcompanies listed on the Chinese A-share stock market are importers rather thanexporters.译 文：人民币升值对股价的影响人民币升值对股价的影响摘要：自2005年7月取消了人民币对美元的盯住制度，中国已经进入了一个浮动汇率管理制度的新时代。
How Foreign Exchange Rate Affect My Life
How Foreign Exchange Rate Affect My Life- 人民币升值，进口货物更便宜，人们出国旅行、购物、留学可以少花钱- 人民币贬值，有利于出口，增加就业- 人民币汇率保持稳定，有利于社会稳定，经济健康发展- 结合自己的生活和见闻举例说明How Foreign Exchange Rate Affect My LifeIn international finance, an foreign exchange rate between two currencies is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. But Foreign exchange rate is not always stable and constant. It always influenced by many factors likes the inflation, the balance of payment, productiveforces, trends in import and export and so on.If the RMB becomes stronger, then foreign goods and services become cheaper for China, while goods and services from the China will become more expensive for foreigners, causing imports to rise and exports to decline. We called it currency revaluation. But if the RMB becomes weaker, then more expensive imported goods and services decreases imports, while cheaper Chinese goods and services increases exports. So we called it currency devaluation.When RMB becomes strong enough it is cheaper for Chinese businesses to import from foreign countries because the RMB is strong so foreign goods and services will cost less, and the consumer will benefit from this since import prices on goods would go down. It would be cheaper for Chinese citizens to travel abroad since the consumer would be getting more for their RMB, likes the food and hotels cost less. And also the Chinese students study abroad because the school fee would be cost less.On the contrary, when other currencies are strong, relative to the RMB, we would export more goods abroad, we need more people to produce these products, so it can increasing our employment rate.So, as a coin has two side, the foreign exchange rate run up or go down both can bing us the advantages and disadvantages. We should look at it objectively and comprehensively.。
三分钟教你看懂人民币升值的那些事
人民币兑美元在2013年底创下了历史新高。
为什么说人民币升值是一件大事？人民币升值会带来哪些重要的影响？人民币接下来又会有怎样的变化？花3分钟读完这篇文章，你就能找到答案。
3分钟教你看懂人民币升值的那些事What happened: Last year China's currency reached an all-time high against the dollar, gaining 3% to hit 6.05 yuan per dollar. It capped a nice eight-year run since 2005, when the currency finally dropped its strict peg to the dollar. Since then, the liberalized yuan has risen by 35%.Why the rise?The global economy grew, and Chinese exports expanded in 2013. That's it, more or less. But it's never so easy in China because the central bank keeps tight control over the yuan by basically preventing trade imbalances from driving up the yuan's value too much. (China adsorbed net inflows of 387 billion U.S. dollars last year, according to Deutsche Bank.) For technical reasons, China allows the yuan to trade (you can buy yuan futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), but strict limits are imposed so the currency can't move dramatically day to day.Why it mattersChina is in the middle of a rebalancing act, as Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, has eloquently pointed out. The yuan's rise is important to China's future, but it can't rise so fast that it imperils China's present. Pettis says the country must let the yuan's value increase so that the real value of household income relative to GDP expands. That is, the higher the yuan's value, the lower the price of imported consumer goods -- and all goods face some kind of import cost. "Even if you're drinking cup of Chinese tea [in Beijing], that had to be transported from Yunnan using oil, steel, trucks, so you're always importing," Pettis says. The flipside is, the more the yuan rises, the less attractive China's exports become to overseas buyers, because a strong currency increases the price foreigners pay for Chinese goods. The government must decide how much wealth it wants to transfer from manufactures to households by letting the yuan rise. Pettis believes if China revalues slowly, the balancing act will play out smoothly -- Chinese exporters gain new domestic customers as they lose overseas ones. But it's too early to say if that's happening. "Who knows whether this is the right pace or not," says Pettis, adding, "It seems to be reasonably successful."What else really matters?The yuan's rise is important to China and the world. Just ask any politician in the U.S. who has manufacturers in their district. But what if we're missing the bigger picture, which is not how high the yuan will eventually rise, but rather, can China rebalance another major financial concern: theextreme loads of debt in its economy. George Soros gave his take on China's debt problems earlier this month in a Project Syndicate column. He said when China's central bank took measures to curb excesses in 2012, the economy showed distress. So in 2013 it eased credit, and poof, theeconomy picked up. "There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China's current policies," he wrote. "Restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years." After that, China's political and economic reforms have to kick in and improve the situation. The yuan's moves will likely be consequences of the path China chooses.人民币升值历程：去年，人民币兑美元创历史新高，汇率上升3%，达到了6.05元。
人民币升值问题中英文对照外文翻译文献
人民币升值问题中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)译文:运用经济伦理分析人民币升值问题摘要自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，人民币兑美元汇率已引起各方关注。
由于平衡的国际收支顺差，中国积累了大量外汇储备，且在人民币升值方面有压力。
关于人民币升值问题已提出了一系列相互交织的经济和道德理论并且在中国受到广泛关注。
本文是一个跨学科的研究，说明了跨经济学与伦理学之间的关系。
本文分析了主要经济因素对人民币汇率走势及其升值的影响，然后讨论人民币升值的伦理问题，并总结了一些政策建议，以解决经济和伦理问题。
关键词：经济伦理，人民币，汇率，建议一、引言在当今开放的经济中，受对外贸易中的汇率和其他经济制度的影响，已引起经济机构的关注并受到国家的一致好评的中国学者和他国学者都是一样的。
根据宏观经济理论，并给出了一些标准假设，相对于外国产品价格，汇率的变化更会影响国内商品的价格，因此，财政支出结构将受到影响。
一般来说，本币贬值能够刺激出口同时抑制进口。
如果进口和出口的需求对价格有弹性，这将改善贸易平衡。
在中国，20世纪90年代，人民币的贬值导致了国际收支逆差的平衡受到明显的影响。
对于廉价的出口带给中国的竞争优势和短时间内国际收支赤字变成了盈余，使得官方外汇储备的不断增加。
在最近的几年，人民币加速升值并没有导致出口量的下降，而美国并没有通过付款汇率变动的平衡取得预期的改善。
同时，该人民币升值引发了一系列经济和伦理上的问题。
事实上，在人民币升值带来的经济的影响的基础上伦理问题和经济问题可以合并在一起作为一个伦理问题。
本文作为一个跨学科的研究，将会说明经济学与伦理学之间的相互关系。
自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，人民币兑美元汇率已经引起了多方关注，西方国家在中国人民币升值方面施加给中国巨大的压力。
一些压力涉及到最有争议的问题——中国–美关系，例如：美国人认为人民币价值被低估，至使中国的国际收支顺差是建立在美国人经历一个巨大的国际收支赤字的基础上的。
外贸币值升值和贬值表达
Looking forward, the pressure on the appreciation of the Renminb i will be reduced, and depreciation is quite unlikely.因此，人民币升值的压力将会减轻，但决不会贬值。
The export market have become very difficult since the rise in the dollar.自美元升值以。
Over the past four years, the exchange rate of the Renminbi has appreciated 44 percent, while the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by US$ 120 billion.4年来人民币汇率实际升值了44％，增加了外汇储备1200亿美元左右。
The value of sterling has risen.英镑已经升值。
A run on sterling following its rise in value against the dollar英镑对美元升值后引起的抢购英镑的热潮The dollar have appreciate in term of the yen.美元以日元折合升值了。
These share have appreciate by 5%.这些股票升值5％。
Sale is down a bit due to the revaluation.由于货币升值销售额有下降。
The exchange rate of Renminbi remained stable, which stood at 1 US dollar = 8.2789 RMB yuan at the end of December, an appreciation of 9 basic potions as compared with that at the end of 1997.人民币汇率保持稳定。
人民币升值对纺织服装出口的影响外文翻译文献
人民币升值对纺织服装出口的影响外文翻译文献(文档含中英文对照即英文原文和中文翻译)Trade liberalization and patterns of strategic adjustment in the US textiles and clothing industryBelay SeyoumU.S.A.The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense competition in export and domestic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization .Chinese leaders have expressed strong opposition to outside pressure on their currency policy, calling it a form of protectionism and interference in China’s domestic economic policy, and some have even questioned whether the currency is undervalued at all. However, on June 19, 2010, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) stated that, based on current economic conditions, it had decided to “proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.” It ruled out any large one-time revaluations, stating “it is important to avoid any sharp and massive fluctuations of the RMB exchan ge rate,” in part so that Chinese corporations could more easily adjust (such as through upgrading) to an appreciation of the currency. Many observers contend the timing of the RMB announcement was intended in part to prevent China’s currency policyfrom being a central focus of the G-20 summit in Toronto from June 26-27, 2010.On June 22, 2010, the RMB appreciated by 0.43% against the dollar (to 6.80 yuan) over the previous day, which, at the time, was the largest daily rise since reforms were implemented in July 2005. However, on the following day (June 23) it depreciated to 6.81 yuan. As indicated in Figure 3, the yuan’s exchange rate with the dollar has gone up and down over the past few months, but overall, it has appreciated by 1.9% through October 1, 2010, with most of that appreciation occurring in September. 3 Some analysts contend that the appreciation of the currency in September 2010 has had more to do with Chinese concerns over possible congressional action on the currency than economic considerations.In spite of the substantial job losses, the US TC industry remains technologically advanced partly due to increased productivity resulting from advances in technology and design capabilities. Textile production is capital intensive and modern technology is essential to meet the increasing for high-quality products. Over the last few years, US textiles and apparel firms have substantially increased their investment to maintain modern manufacturing facilities as well as improve production and marketing capabilities in order to maximize their inherent advantages to market proximity. In apparel, low skill production jobs have moved to low-cost locations offshore while the more skilled ones have been retained. To successfully adapt to the new environment, US TC industries need to capitalize on their sources of competitive advantage. They need to develop a more flexible operational arrangement, meet high standards in product innovation and generally develop a more change-seeking business culture (Kilduff, 2005).An important survival tool for US TC firms is to expand their potential market by offering new product designs and product categories. Manufacturers must try to bring a steady stream of products to market that are in line with the taste, preferences of the consumer. They can also expand their market potential by offering new product categories. Two of the fastest growing apparel segments in the US, for example, have been the women’s plus and men’s big and tall segments (Driscoll, 2004). Plus-size apparel marketing was estimated at $47 billion in 2005 accounting for 20% of total apparel market. It is important to identify the firm’s target customers and assess whether the firm is successfully addressing their needs.US TC firms should target a narrow segment of the market that provides the best opportunity for success. In textiles, the focus should be on a few specialized segments such as carpets, nonwovens and technical textiles. Similarly, apparel producers should increase their focus on core products, reduce vertical integration to shed overhead costs, and establish alliances with other firms to consolidate resources and increase market share.Finally, in view of rising incomes and high growth rates in many developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, there are potential export market opportunities for US textile and apparel products. US export interests may be served by seeking improved access to the retail distribution systems of developing countries. US textile firms should also be able to use Mexico to export to the European Union and other countries, taking advantage of the Mexico-EU trade agreement. Since the conclusion of NAFTA, a number of Asian and European firms have produced certain products in Mexico in order to export to the US market.This paper suggests a demand pull model as a basis for developing anetwork structure in the clothing industry. In a demand pull model, consumer demand is the driver of sales unlike the supply push model whereby the manufacturer pushes goods to the retailer regardless of consumer demand.Retail companies have become powerful due to their sufficient capital and marketing expertise to build loyalty among consumers. They are the lead firm in view of their central role in the organizational network. The lead clothing retailer integrates industrial capabilities such as sourcing of textiles, design, product branding and its relations with consumers enables it to keep abreast of fashion consumption trends.The lead firm conveys its requirements to these changing trends (changes in style, material requirements) to its suppliers or subcontractors (Table 7). It also provides assistance with the purchasing of capital equipment and technology necessary to produce apparel in accordance with market demand. The fragmented webs of suppliers and subcontractors are bound together through information technology, online data sharing, joint product development, and collaborative forecasting, planning and replenishment activities. Retailers will hold less inventory as shipments become smaller and more frequent since point of sale data is directly transmitted to the manufacturer/supplier who will produce and ship garments as it is needed. This model shows the role of the retailer as an intermediary integrating the functions of design, textile sourcing, branding and as facilitator of apparel production through a web of suppliers/subcontractors. Such restructuring through technological improvements and information technology is one means of succeeding in an increasingly competitive environment. The horizontally structured, mass production methods no longer ensure future competitiveness.The lion’s share of the benefits from quota elimination is expected toaccrue to China. Its low labor cost, high productivity, range and flexibility of services as well as efficient supplier networks will make China the supplier of choice. About 87% of apparel executives that participated in a cotton sourcing summit in Miami in February 2004, agreed that China will soon account for 50–90% of all apparel sold in the US market (National Labor Committee, 2004). This means rationalization of production and a massive consolidation of vendors. Other winners are likely to include India and Pakistan in narrow segments of the TC industry. The elimination of quotas is also likely to lead to lower prices for consumers in view of the absence of quota costs which is often a significant part of the cost of TC sold in the US market. Well-known brands may still hold market value since they are not subject to retail price deflation. It is important for TC firms to evaluate their internal capabilities such as sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, transportation etc. in order to develop an action plan for the post-quota world.Exporters from Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean are likely to lose market share to China since they largely compete on price (not quality) and lack the capability to produce high value added products. Even with the introduction of safeguards on a range of products that are of export interest to these countries, their US market share has declined since the phase out of quotas. With the complete removal of quotas in 2008, it is difficult for these countries to compete on price. Since the US government lifted quotas in 2002 on 29 categories, for e xample, China’s market share (in these categories) jumped from just 9% (2002) to 65% (2003) while prices paid by US retailers (for apparel from China) dropped by 48% (National Labor Committee, 2004). In cotton dressing gowns (quotas removed) China’s share in 2003 jumped from 25% to 39% while that of Caribbean countries fell from 13% to a mere 3%. Inthe first 12 months after the phase out of quotas, China’s market share in apparel rose by 59% in value while that of many Central and South American countries showed a sharp decline.What are the implications for TC firms in countries that are vulnerable to competition from China? First, they should capitalize on their proximity to the US market. Their ability to offer lower transport cost, lower lead times as well as duty free entry to the US market may attract the fashion-oriented segment of the US industry. This will depend on access to good local transport infrastructure to get goods to market as well as advanced telecommunications systems to link suppliers and customers. Local firms and governments need to collaborate in creating a climate which is conducive to business and to develop infrastructure to attract and retain TC industries that are so vital in generating exports and employment.Secondly, low wages do not necessarily provide a comparative advantage with respect to China. Firms should develop new capabilities in areas in which China does not have a comparative advantage (yarn, and silk non-apparel). This requires, inter alia, investment in modern production methods and development of competitive sources of local raw materials. Even in product areas in which China is expanding its exports, developing country suppliers that enhance their skills, technology, supply chains and marketing capabilities (through joint ventures, licensing arrangements) faster than China can still maintain their shares to the US market.Thirdly, an important strategic consideration that limits the competitive impact of China is the need on the part of multinationals to diversify their risk portfolios. US manufacturers and retailers are likely to adopt a diversified risk adjusted sourcing strategy that balances cost, speed to market as well aspolitical and economic stability. They may not be prepared to rely on China for critical inputs beyond a certain threshold of risk. Furthermore, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean could be attractive options for US companies in some fashion sensitive segments of the industry where quick response or fast turnaround is important.Finally, existing US rules of origin requirements to qualify for free access to the US market have had unintended consequences. One of the requirements is that they have to use US yarn and fabric. This has had the effect of making their exports less competitive. The US may have to modify its rules of origin to allow developing countries to import from Asia or other competitive sources without losing their preferential status.美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式作者：贝蕾·塞尤姆美国纺织品和服装行业面临的是一个市场条件快速变化、科技不断创新的环境。
关于RMB升值英文解析
WASHINGTON - The two-way fluctuation expectation of RMB exchange rate indicated that the Chinese currency had become more market-oriented, a senior Chinese central bank official said on Thursday."There are two-way fluctuation expectations of RMB exchange rate in the recent spot and forward exchange rate markets," Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China,told a press briefing at the fifth round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED).This new trend indicated that the Chinese currency became more market-oriented as there had been a unilateral appreciation expectation of its exchange rate for a long time, he added.Yi told reporters that the value of RMB against US dollar had nominally appreciated by 2 percent since the beginning of this year, and the RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) had increased by about 6 percent at the same period, highlighting a substantial progress toward the market-oriented currency exchange rate reform.The central bank official stressed that China would continue to promote the RMB exchange rate reform and make progress in the capital account convertibility.As a very important feature of such reform, the supply-and-demand relation in the market will play a more important role in deciding the exchange rate of RMB, he added.Yi also said that China was fully prepared to tackle the challenge, such as capital outflows, amid prospects of US Federal Reserve's withdrawal of quantitative easing later this year.He noted that China had abundant liquidity buffer with a high reserve requirement ratio, and would maintain prudent monetary policy to provide appropriate liquidity for Chinese money markets.US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion monthly bond purchasing program later this year, if the economy continued to progress as the Fed expected.The tapering plan has caused investors to withdraw money from emerging markets and restructure their portfolios, stoking volatility in currency, bond and equity markets around the globe.。
人民币升值能走多远（Chinaletstheyuanrise—buthowfar？）
China has revalued its currency, the yuan, and linked it to a basket of currencies—though it is not yet clear how far it will be allowed to rise. The move may ease trade tension with America, though China's slowing economy, which is boosting its trade surplus, may reignite the spat中国调整了它的货币（元）的价格，并将其与⼀篮⼦货币进⾏挂钩，但⼈民币升值能⾛多远⽬前尚不明晰。
这样的⾏为能缓解中美之间紧张的贸易关系，尽管中国减缓的经济与⽇益增长的贸易顺差，也许会重新点燃双⽅的冲突。
SOONER or later, it was going to happen, and on Thursday July 21st it did. China abandoned the 11-year-old peg of its currency, the yuan, at 8.28 to the dollar. From now on, the yuan will be linked to a basket of currencies, the central parities of which will be set at the end of each day. And the currency has been revalued, although by nothing like as much as America and others have been demanding: the yuan's initial central rate against the dollar was shifted by just 2.1%, to 8.11.迟早会发⽣的事情，在7⽉21⽇星期四这天来临了。
英语学习资料：基金公司“备战”人民币升值（双语）
英语学习资料：基金公司“备战”人民币升值（双语）由于人民币兑美元汇率可能持续上升，加之人民币在世界舞台上的重要地位，更多的基金公司正推出以人民币计价的各类基金和股票类别，或正在考虑这种做法，以便从中获利。
Indeed, while investment choices are still scarce, the sweep of renminbi-denominated investments on offer already ranges from bonds and funds to certificates of deposit, currency swaps and insurance products.实际上，虽然投资选项仍然匮乏，但现有以人民币计价的投资产品已涵盖了债券、基金、存单、货币互换乃至保险产品等各个领域。
Some fund managers argue that renminbi-denominated share classes of traditional funds are a superior play on the appreciation of the renminbi as they offer the chance to register a currency gain as well as a return on underlying investments higher than the inflation rate. Just this month, Pharo Management UK revealed plans to bee the first hedge fund manager to create shares in an investment vehicle denominated in renminbi. Investors in Pharo’s flagship fund do not have to hold renminbi as the fund’s administrator can handle spot exchanges into the currency. This underscores the extent to which the future of the US dollar and the rising power of the renminbi –dubbed the redback –are being concerns for investors.一些基金经理认为，以人民币计价的传统基金股票类别在利用人民币升值方面具有超强的优势，它们既可以赚取汇兑收益，并且投资标的的回报率也高于通胀水平。
人民币升值的英文文献及翻译
US clears China of currency manipulation Veronica SmithAFPThe US Treasury cleared China of official accusations of currency manipulation on Friday, but said progress toward allowing the yuan to appreciate was "insufficient".In a report to Congress, the Treasury said that China, eight other countries and the eurozone were all innocent of charges that they manipulated exchange rates "for purposes of ... gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade"."Based on the resumption of exchange rate flexibility last June and the acceleration of the pace of real bilateral appreciation over the past few months," China's behaviour did not qualify under the official definition of manipulation, it said in the long-delayed report.Advertisement: Story continues below"Treasury's view, however, is that progress thus far is insufficient and that more rapid progress is needed."It pledged to "continue to closely monitor the pace of appreciation" of the yuan.In addition to China, the Treasury looked at the policies of the eurozone and eight other economies: Brazil, Britain, Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. The 10 together account for about 75 per cent of US trade."Treasury has concluded that no major trading partner of the United States met the standards" of manipulation as identified by the law "during the period covered in this report".The Chinese currency policy has been a major irritant in bilateral relations with the world's second-largest economy, and was a key topic of discussion when President Barack Obama hosted Chinese President Hu Jintao on a state visit last month.The United States accuses Beijing of keeping its currency undervalued, flooding the country with cheap exports and costing US jobs.US legislators have pushed the Obama administration to get tough with China over the yuan.A bill threatening sanctions to punish Beijing's currency policy is lurking in Congress, which has awaited the Treasury report since it was first supposed to appear on October 15.Chinahas pledged to allow the yuan to gain value, but at a measured pace so as not to destabilise its rapidly expanding economy.The Treasury said the yuan, also called the renminbi (RMB), had appreciated 3.7 per cent against the dollar between mid-June and January 27.In fact, it added, weighing the higher rate of inflation in China, "the RMB has been appreciating more rapidly against the dollar on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, at a rate which if sustained would amount to more than 10 per cent per year".A top politician in congress, Max Baucus, head of the Senate Finance Committee, slammed the Treasury's findings."China's currency practices harm ranchers, farmers, and exporters across America and around the world," the senator, a Democrat representing the western state of Montana, said in a statement."China has been given a free pass on its currency practices for far too long. We need tohold China and our other trading partners accountable for their actions, and we must acknowledge - and take steps to remedy - those actions that harm the competitiveness of American businesses and workers."The report came a week ahead of the government's December trade balance numbers. The Commerce Department is expected to report next Friday that the US trade deficit widened to $US50.0 billion ($A49.3 billion) from $US42.6 billion ($A42.01 billion) in November.China has appeared on track to beat its 2008 record trade surplus with the US. Over the first 11 months of 2010, the China trade gap was $US252.4 billion ($A248.88 billion), compared with $US268.0 billion ($A264.26 billion) for all of 2008.资料来源：Veronica Smith，AFP，February 5, 20（.au/breaking-news-business/us-clears-china-of-currency-mani pulation-20110205-1ah94.html）美国清除中国操纵货币维罗尼卡史密斯2011年2月5日法新社美国财政部清除官员的指责中国操纵汇率上周五，但表示对允许人民币升值的进展“不足”。
外文翻译------人民币在中国：其价值、其可调节汇率和其未来发展
中文4430字外文原文The Chinese RMB: Its Value, Its Peg, and Its Future --TRADE IMBALANCES HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE U.S. THAN WITH CHINAT he valuation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) has drawn lots of attention lately and a great deal of pressure on the part of developed nations for revaluation. In addressing the issue of valuation, this paper develops a new purchasing power parity (PPP) index of China’s exchange rate and finds that the while undervalued, the undervaluation is neither unusual nor bad policy. Moreover, China’s overall external trade balance does not seem to be that far out of equilibrium. China’s desire to join the G-7 club is likely to result in abandoning its peg, however, despite the increased risk to its economic development.The valuation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) has drawn lots of attention lately. The IMF, theU.S. government, and the G-7 finance ministers are urging China to revalue its currency,which is currently pegged at 8.28 to the dollar.The arguments for China to appreciate its currency roughly follow these lines:• China’s currency is grossly undervalued;• the undervalued RMB is attracting a flood of hot money into China, complicating the authorities’ efforts to engineer a soft-landing for an overheated economy; and • the RMB’s undervaluation and its peg to the dollar are preventing other Asian countries from allowing currencies to rise against the dollar, since appreciation would damage competiveness relative to China.This last point is of particular concern because, it is argued , U.S. external imbalances cannot be addressed in the face of China’s and other Asian nations’historically unprecedented accumulations of U.S. dollar reserves in recentyears .There have been many studies on the RMB’s valuation with inconclusive, contradictory results (see, e.g.,Wang, 2004). To address that difficult valuationquestion, this paper develops a new absolute PPP index that measures China’s PPP against the United States and other countries. The new index shows the RMB to be substantially undervalued in the context of “conventional wisdom.”However, the undervaluation is not unusual, given China’s level of economic development; and conventional wisdom does not apply to China, because by any measure it is an undeveloped nation for which a currency peg is useful to maintain domestic economic and political stability (Prasad et al., 2003). In terms of multilateral external balances, we find it hard to argue that China’s currency is contributing much to its trade and balance of payment surpluses, especially if one takes the 1997 perspective when the RMB was under tremendous depreciation pressure. Indeed, there is clear evidence that if China’s trade balance was evenly distributed among its trading partners, there would be hardly any pressure for China to appreciate its currency. Thus, the pressure is political and structural in nature, originating from the large and growing multilateral trade imbalance of the United States. Unfortunately, it is much easier to blame China than to attack the underlying structural causes of the U.S. trade deficit. We conclude that the political pressure on China to abandon the RMB’s peg to the dollar is likely to persist, and—as the most important growth market in the world today—China is more likely to move sooner rather than later to demonstrate that, in spite of the risks to its fragile financial system, it will share its global responsibilities as it eventually joins the G-7. The paper wraps up by placing the exchange issue in the broader context and discussing the longer-term prospects of the RMB.Is the RMB Undervalued?The RMB is undervalued in the conventional sense that there is too much demand for it relative to the supply .Fundamentally, demand for foreign currency comes from three sources:• to buy goods or ser vices,• to invest in physical or financial assets, and• to speculate on moves of the exchange rate itself.With a closed capital account, China’s currency is largely, but not entirely, immune from currency speculators and short-term portfolio investors. Recent studies at the China National Economic Research Institute (2003) indicate that much of theso-called “hot money” inflows are not a result of foreign hedge fund activities. Rather, they are a change in borrowing and deposit behaviors of domestic firms and individuals, taking advantage of the loopholes in the current foreign exchange regulations. Thus, we can focus our attention on the trade and long term investment flows in China and look at the standard measures, such as purchasing power parity (PPP), trade balance, current account balance, balance of payments, and foreign reserves.PPP is an ancient economic concept, dating back at least to David Hume (1752), which has been experiencing something of a revival lately .The Economist (current) defines P PP as “the exchange rate that equates the price of a basket of identical traded goods and services in two countries.” The theory is that PPP exchange rates represent the equilibrium levels among the nations and that any departure from these levels causes potentially significant and distorting trade imbalances. There are different measures of PPP: a strong version or “absolute” version that emphasizes the absolute equality of prices (sometimes called “the Law of One Price”) and a “relative” version that emphasizes the ongoing movement over time towards that equality.Should China Bow to the Pressure?Aside from political considerations, which we will discuss later, the question of whether China should move now is a complex one, relating to several considerations. First, market expectations of the RMB’s move have already caused a significant reversal of capital flight and increased upward speculative pressure. Second, cyclical global macroeconomic developments are likely to reduce upward pressure on the RMB. Third, China is in the midst of critical structural reforms, especially in the financial sector, that require focused attention. Fourth, it is increasingly clear that the current economic overheating is sectoral in nature, which is in sharp contrast with the 1993-4 episode. These considerations suggest that it is not in China’s interest to revalue the currency at this time . Let’s take a closer look at each of these issues.Re-pegging the RMBRe-pegging the RMB at a value, say, 15-20 percent higher against the U.S. dollar would instantly vindicate the currency speculators, although they are mostly domesticplayers. Over the last couple of years, the net errors and omissions category in China’s balance of payment has shown a large swing from persistent deficits to a surplus of $7.5 billion in 2003. The net errors and emissions category is believed to capture illegal capital movements. During much of mid- to late-90s, China’s capital flight, as a percentage of GDP, was the second worst in the world (only Russia was worse). In fact, it was worse than Mexico in 1994 and South Korea in 1997 during the height of their currency crises. Recently, however, some of this capital is finding its way back, as expectations of RMB appreciation have raised. There is also strong indication that businesses and individuals are involved in currency speculation, which has contributed to the overheating of real estate investment. Revaluing now will encourage future speculation, which could exacerbate the balance of payments pressure.More Chinese Interest Rate FlexibilityAs the Fed continues to boost U.S. interest rates, Chinese authorities have more flexibility to raise domestic interest rates without worrying about widening the interest rate gap and encouraging further hot money inflows. With global economic growth only moderating a bit lately, demand for energy and commodities remains strong, which is likely to keep oil and commodity prices high and to increase the import bill for China and other Asian countries—yet another source of reduced pressure on the RMB. Indeed, as long as oil demand remains firm and geopolitical risks persist, the negative impact on Asia’s oil importing countries and concomitant, market-driven downward pressure on its currencies will not dissipate.China’s Shaky FundamentalsPerhaps most important, the sharp cyclical upswing since the end of the SARS crisis is masking China’s shaky fundamentals to the outside world. Despite modern factories, spanking new airports, highways, and shopping malls, Chin a’s social and financial institutions are perhaps comparable to those of the U.S. in the late 19th century period of the “Robber Barons.” A 2003 poll conducted by Peking University of about 100 China experts shows that one third of them believe there will be a major crisis in China before 2010. What is the most likely source of crisis? The most frequently mentioned are social (21 percent), financial (19 percent), economic (12percent), and employment (10 percent). Rapid growth over the last two decades has increased income and social inequality, environmental degradation, and regional disparity. The incomplete transition from a centrally-planned economy to a market economy under authoritarian rule has enriched the elite and economic opportunists at the cost of generating a large underclass and eroding public wealth. As some Chinese economists point out, many Chinese local governments are effectively broke and eventually will need a central government bail-out.Reminiscent of the age of the U.S. “Robber Barons,” the widespread, systematic corruption and abuse of power is estimated to cost as much as 14 percent of China’s GDP per year. The financial system—which includes the banking, securities, and insurance sectors needs an urgent overhaul to improve efficiency and be ready for foreign competition under China’s WTO commitment. Job creation remains a daunting challenge given continued efforts at transforming thestate-owned-enterprises and improving productivity growth. Then there are long-term issues, such as the aging population; under-funded pension and social security systems; and education, health care, and infrastructure issues. As one prominent economist in Beijing observed recently, “other than the central bank, few other high level officials want to talk about the exchange rate issue—there are far more urgent things to address.” To attack the problems on multiple-fronts, the top leaders clearly need to ensure stability and focus on the most urgent tasks of strengthening the Party’s effectiveness and effic iency on one hand, and reforming the domestic financial sector on the other.Weak Link between Revaluation and Internal Adjustment Finally, based on international evidence (Rogoff, 2004) and China’s own experience, it is not at all clear that a revalued RMB will facilitate internal reform efforts. Revaluation of the RMB may not help that much in terms of cyclical macroeconomic adjustment. Despite significant increases in the headline inflation, core inflation remains low. This is a sharp departure from Ch ina’s historical overheating periods and suggests that there is no systematic price push from aggregate demand, as was the case in 1993-4 (Chu, 2003a). What is unsustainable is fixed investment growth in certain areas even while consumption and investment in otherareas still need to be encouraged. China’s gross investment as a share of GDP is running at above 40 percent, which is far beyond the 20-30 percent for most developing markets and higher than Japan’s and South Korea’s levels at a comparable stage of development. Granted, the central government is using very blunt instruments such as credit rationing and administrative orders to address the sectoral imbalances; but this does not suggest that changing the exchange rate right now would be a better alternative. On the contrary, an abrupt change in the foreign exchange regime would increase uncertainty and jeopardize the ability to fine-tune macro policies. Indeed, as Rogoff suggests, abandoning the peg to the dollar could be seen as abandoning China’s c ommitment to stable and sustainable macroeconomic growth.The Issue Is Mostly PoliticalThe growing U.S. external deficits are clearly unsustainable and must be addressed. It has been argued that the longer the United States waits, the higher the potential shock or damage there will be (Mann, 2004; BCA, 2004; Obstfeld and Rogoff, 2004). But is revaluing the RMB part of the solution to this problem? A close look at the situation suggests that at best it may reduce the problem only marginally in the near term, while the longer-term impacts are unclear since foreign exchange policy changes can bring a host of unintended consequences. However, political reality gets in the way: politicians need to show voters and powerful lobbying groups that they are doing something. Exchange rates are a low-hanging fruit for them, even though they are a small fruit and—from the Chinese perspective—an unripe one. The really effective measures, such as addressing domestic demand imbalances and promoting U.S. goods and services exports, are unfortunately political non-starters in the United States. The perception that undervaluation of the RMB is the cause of U.S. trade deficits has also meant that China’s efforts in adjusting export competitiveness through non-foreign exchange measures have received little attention in the political debate.Looking to the FutureThe central point of this paper is that while the RMB is clearly undervalued (especially by PPP measures), there really has been no fundamental change in the valuation that warrants intensive market pressure for it to have depreciated in 1997-8and to appreciate now. Looking at the broad picture, the relationship between the RMB’s peg to the dollar and China’s external account surpluses and rising foreign reserves is not as clear as often argued. The contribution of the RMB’s undervaluation to external imbalances in both the United States and China is insignificant in comparison with other structural factors, such as domestic demand imbalances for G3 and improving the investment environment (for Foreign Direct Investment—FDI) and export competitiveness in China relative to other countries. There are far better ways to address the imbalances with little distraction for China’s challenging domestic reform agenda. In particular, labor costs in China are rising.China’s political capital is best invested in other areas of structural reform. Unfortunately, given its much larger influence on the global economy, China probably cannot say “no” this time to external political pressure and may move sooner than it would like. If history proves that China de-pegged before it is capable of handling the shock, the lesson would be that the G-7 failed to recognize that a stable, orderly progressing China is in the best interest of all. For the longer term, few doubt that China must adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime in this post-Breton Woods environment. A flexible RMB will allow China to conduct independent monetary policy (with an open capital account) and minimize the impact of fluctuations of major currencies, especially the U.S. dollar’s gyrations against the euro and the yen. China’s outward investment needs are growing rapidly and would benefit from a flexible RMB. But first, China needs to clean up the banking system, adjust capital accounts, and develop healthy and robust domestic financial markets. We can expect that a flexible exchange rate will improve China’s overall financial system. China has so far learned valuable lessons of the perils of opening the market too soon and allowing a currency to appreciate too fast from the experience of Japan and Southeast Asia. Going forward, it needs to study the positive lessons of liberalizing the exchange rates. The successful cases studies of Poland (from the dollar peg in 1990 to free float in 2000) and Chile (from fixed rate in 1981 to complete float in 1999) clearly show that liberalization can be accomplished without a major crisis; but it requires many gradual, cautious steps to reach the final destination.外文翻译人民币在中国：其价值、其可调节汇率和其未来发展————贸易不平衡对美国的影响大于对中国的影响中国人民币的估值最近已引起很多关注，同时在人民币升值方面承受着大量来自发达国家的压力。
2017考研英语翻译每日一句：人民币升值_毙考题
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一起来学习吧!本期主题【人民币升值】Influenced jointly by internal dynamics of Chineseeconomy and externalpressures, RMB hasappreciated constantly in recent years. Theinternal influencesmainly include China s pricelevel, the situations of inflation andeconomicgrowth, as well as interest rate level, while the external influencesmainly come from thepressures exerted by developed countries, Japan and Americain particular. The appreciationof RMB will not only increase its purchasingpower and expand domestic consumers demandsfor imported goods, but alsoalleviate the cost burden of imported energies and raw materials.However, it mayaffect the stability of the domestic financial market and raise the costofexported products, which would reduce the competitive power of Chineseproducts in theglobal market.参考翻译:受到中国经济内部动力(dynamics)和外来压力的共同影响，人民币近几年来不断升值(appreciate)。
我国出口加工企业应对人民币升值的对策研究外文翻译
中文4750字RMB appreciationAbstract: At present, the RMB's appreciation has attracted wide attention because exchange rate movements on the impact of a country's economy and international interests of all economies is closely related toCaused by the yuan appreciation are also external factors, both internal and therefore a variety of measures to be taken and requested the co-ordination of the main stakeholders in order to cope with the impact of the appreciation.This paper analyzes the causes and impact of RMB appreciation that the appreciation should seize the opportunities and to actively respond to challenges, to avoid sharp fluctuations in the Chinese economy.一.An appreciation of the renminbi because（1）.An appreciation of the yuan external causesFirst, the RMB revaluation pressure from the United States.The US government believes that the long-term Sino-US trade surplus with the US dollar and China's pegged exchange rate policies, the depreciation of the dollar can be put into the role of trade, but to make Chinese products more competitive, there is an urgent demand appreciation of the RMB.However, the US trade deficit is determined by its sharp increase in foreign direct investment is too large, personal consumption expenditures is much higher than savings, and so a variety of factors, appreciation of the renminbi alone could not rescue its economy recession.Secondly, the pressure from Japan.90 years since the Japanese economy has entered a long period of depression, inexpensive Chinese products in the Japanese market share rising, the Japanese government that the low prices of Chinese goods to foreign sales, not only Japan's current account deficit in the state, but also to the Japanese domestic market has brought the threat of deflation.Therefore, Japan strongly want to change the yuan revaluation of the domestic economy continues to slump and the decline in international competitiveness of the state.Once again, the pressure from the European Union.The continuing depreciation of dollar against the euro makes the link with the devaluation of the yuan against the euro, is also relatively recent years, China-EU trade continued to grow, the depreciation of the renminbi against the euro, European companies in China led to the rising costs of goods, business loss, then Canada, the European Union and other countries and regions have to revalue its currency in order to take some of the effects of dollar depreciation.（2）the internal causes of the appreciation of yuanFirst of all, China's capital projects and current 'double surplus' led to the huge foreign exchange reserves are the most important internal reason for the yuan appreciation.Second, China's continued rapid economic growth laid the economic foundation of the RMB exchange rate. Moreover, the United States spreads upside down has further boosted the yuanappreciation.China's current excess liquidity there and asset prices, inflation rates remained high, the central bank needs to tighten monetary policy to deal with these issues, including improving the RMB deposit and lending rates.However, the US interest rate cut in a row after the rate cut is still possible, the situation of Sino-US spreads upside down from the United States makes a large number of short-term capital outflows are more likely to flow into China, causing upward pressure to the yuan.二the RMB appreciation on China's Economy(1)The appreciation of the renminbi reduces the profitability of China's export productsYuan revaluation, if China's commodity prices in foreign currencies marked change, places yuan marked prices, in this case, although China's exports will not be affected, but the corporate profit margins will decline.If the price of the RMB marked change, places mark up the price of foreign currency, China's export products in the international market, declining competitiveness, reduced exports, corporate profits will fall.Yuan revaluation caused a decline in level of corporate profit margins out of date due to the different types of products and different.For the primary products of its labor-intensive products and low value-added products, the most influential of these products is to use cheap labor to reduce internal costs, export prices down in order to obtain the international competitiveness of the industry itself, due to intense competition, small profit margins appreciation of the yuan to its greater impact. Its for the deep processing, with higher value-added, as well as enterprises with independent little effect on national brands, or even no effect.Export products of these enterprises have the advantage of non-price products, companies can negotiate with the client consultation, lock exchange rate risk, etc. to resolve to reduce the pressure on profits.(2)appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to reduce import costs and improve trade structure For the import-dependent companies, the RMB appreciation to lower import prices of products, the same funds can import more resources, enterprise importing raw materials and the more the better it will reduce production costs, improving product competitiveness.RMB appreciation is also really beneficial to China's enterprises to import advanced equipment, the introduction of the scarcity of technological achievements, and the promotion of enterprise products upgrading and improve productivity.An increase in imports in the short term may lead trade deficit, but in the long run, the survival of the fittest caused by appreciation of the renminbi and the reallocation of resources will play an adjustment of trade, export structure, promote industrial upgrading effect.For Chinese enterprises to go global, improve trade structure and opportunities.(3)The appreciation of the renminbi to promote enterprise product upgradesAppreciation of the RMB to bring pressure for export enterprises and enhance their own competitiveness of its order to reduce the adverse impact of the appreciationAlthough China has an export trading power.However, the structure of export products is still dominated by labor-intensive, capital-intensive products, most of which are from the processing trade, a very small proportion of high-tech products, export products are mostly dependent on low-cost-based price advantage.Chinese enterprises need to change the thinking, the price becomes a quality win to win appreciation of the yuan could to a certain extent, to promote export enterprises to adjustproduct structure, from production of primary products with low added value to gradually shift production of high technology products, while promoting business technical innovation and management innovation:（4）the RMB appreciation on China's international balance of payments impactIn theory, a country's currency exchange rate makes the country's foreign currency prices of goods, external goods prices in this currency, which reduced exports, increased imports, the country's trade surplus to reduce or turn to deficits.However, since the appreciation of the RMB has been.China's trade surplus is not reduced, but still continued to increase.（5）RMB appreciation on China's capital flowsCapital, including the long-term investment capital and short-term speculative capital appreciation of the renminbi is significantly influenced by these two kinds of capital.Makes the appreciation of foreign currency converted into an equivalent value of the yuan down, and will enhance our production costs relative to other countries, especially labor costs, investment income less profitable, leading to foreign direct investment in China will be reduced.The short-term capital inflows in general there are two reasons, first, the short-term interest rates are at a high point, or still higher, the second was about the short-term exchange rate appreciation, the current domestic existence of an upward trend in interest rates and exchange rates would give rise to short-term capital inflows.This is because the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to remain the case, if the appreciation of foreign currency into RMB before, so that investors receive the appreciation and the appreciation of the magnitude corresponding benefitsAfter the short-term capital inflows will be a substantial flock to stocks and real estate sectors, these capital addition to proceeds from the appreciation of yuan would be value-added benefits.To speculative inflows of capital for the purpose of export and trade surplus will lead to overvalued, greater external imbalances.（6）RMB appreciation on China's employmentIn theory, in a perfectly competitive market, exchange rate movements affect the import and export trade through further impact employment in related industriesThe increase in exports will lead to the increase in employment related industries, while imports increased employment will be two effects: first, making a direct reduction in domestic employment in the same industry; the second is that if the imports are intermediate products, it will stimulate an increase in output and thus increase employmentIn general, the currency depreciation would promote job growth, unemployment is down; currency appreciation makes reduction in employment and rising unemployment.Relevant departments of a country or the higher degree of openness, exchange rate fluctuations, the greater the impact on employment.三.China's foreign trade enterprises ways to deal with the appreciation of yuanContinuing the current US dollar weakness is still the main reason is to accelerate the appreciation of the RMB. Market for the US economy into recession is expected to become increasingly strong, the Fed may still cut interest rates to stimulate future market risk preference.In addition, the sub-prime crisis, the consequences have not yet fully apparent, which triggered the devaluation of financial assets is still a large number of investors to sell dollar-denominated assets, but also the dollar continue to fall.Therefore, the yuan's appreciation trend will not change, even if the break is still possible to accelerate the appreciation of the post, appreciation and magnitude of increase accelerated to bring about economic and social impact of increasingly prominent, the most directimpact is to curb China's exports.How to adjust in order to reduce the negative impact of the appreciation of China's economic significance.（1）the use of financial means to deal with the risk of RMB appreciation1994-2005, China adopted a managed floating exchange rate regime, the RMB exchange rate floating range is quite small, is always fluctuating within a range of 8.2766-8.2799, so exporters have to worry about currency fluctuation However, in the current stage of the RMB appreciation, export companies in order to maintain business stability, and must take certain financial measures.s, it seldom used for hedging risks. Because China's financial institutions in response to exchange rate risk derivative products fewer choices are available for businesses and foreign currency swaps, forward exchange settlement and sales trading.Forward exchange settlement and sales can be pre-lock exchange rates to lock in the cost of yuan appreciation to circumvent the risks of its main business of production and long-term enterprises, can greatly reduce the uncertainty caused by exchange rate movements RMB and foreign currency swap transactions in spot foreign exchange trading and reverse combination of long-term foreign exchange trans Business of both import export business, foreign trade enterprise can choose such financial instrumentsctions.In addition, the export enterprises can enter into the contracts used in consultation with the importer against payment at sight letter of credit or receive the payment settlement as early as possible in order to reduce losses caused by appreciation of the RMB.First, select your billing currency to be flexibleChina's foreign trade companies have long been accustomed to US dollars as a settlement currency, the dollar continued to weaken the trend appreciation of the renminbi is still exist, if the enterprise does not change the original settlement practices, the exchange will take on more risk.Foreign trade enterprises should be based on specific trading partners, as well as the status of the different buyers and sellers select the appropriate settlement currencies, export enterprises should use the hard currency exchange earnings, increase in foreign currency other than US dollars settlement in the border trade actively promote the use of RMBThe second is to appropriately raise the export prices, a move to bring the appreciation of some of the export increase in the cost passed on to the price of export products, and importers share the profits resulting from loss of RMB appreciationHowever, this method has serious limitations, only in our country have greater bargaining advantage of export products to use.Third, it could appropriately raise the proportion of import and export businessRMB appreciation will help to import is not conducive to exports and imports for both large enterprises have export trade, it can be continued appreciation of the yuan, trade surplus and high level of trade friction, will gradually shift their focus from export import , to avoid appreciation of the risks.(2)the use of operational methods to deal with the risk of RMB appreciationAlthough the financial instruments and financial instruments is relatively simple, but only as a temporary expedient to avoid foreign exchange risks, can not fundamentally eliminate the risk of hidden dangers. Enterprises to achieve long-term development, we must adopt operating adjustment means.1.adjustment and upgrading of product mix, walking brand, the difference of the road: RMB appreciation will be by raising the export prices of products to reduce our internationalcompetitiveness of export enterprises, which export enterprises of China's cheap exports of the original model presented a challenge .2.active overseas investment, the implementation of 'going out' strategy, I am a single channel of the domestic capital investment, capital is not fully utilized, although has a high savings rate, but can not be effectively translated into investment. Yuan appreciation reduced the cost of domestic enterprises to invest overseas, to China's enterprises 'going global' strategy has provided an opportunity.3.actively explore diversified markets.China's export markets mainly in the United States, Japan, the European Union hold the world's major currencies of countries and regions, exports to these markets depends heavily on, the yuan appreciation pressures from these countries and regions.To change this situation, to reduce excessive dependence on the market needs to set out the various countries and regions, the export share of the adjustment, and explore potential international markets, through increased and transfer of these countries exports to compensate for the yuan against major currencies appreciation of the export losses caused by ease yuan pressure for further appreciation.四．China's response to the pressure of RMB appreciation Suggestions（1）following the principle of gradual appreciation of the renminbi, to avoid overshooting the exchange rateSince 2008, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar dramatically accelerate the pace and keep a record low, and this was accompanied by a continuous increase in trade deficit down there.The trade impact of renminbi appreciation has become increasingly prominent. While the appreciation of the RMB would help China adjust the imbalance of international payments, but if the appreciation of the rapid and sustained appreciation expectations will be short-term capital inflows, causing further upward pressure, the international trade balance would be reversed.Japan is a typical example, huge current account deficits lead to capital flight and, ultimately, led to Japan's financial crisis.Slight gradual appreciation of the RMB to China's export enterprises have enough time to adjust product mix, product upgrades, changes in China's trade growth.China should learn from international lessons.To prevent the yuan from appreciating too much, we should pay attention to the huge surplus in international balance of payments adjustments to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation; in policy should be adjusted as soon as the prevailing export sectors and enterprises excessive incentives and increase the oil, minerals and other important strategic resources and key technology and equipment and other important elements of imports. （2）speed up industrial restructuring, change the mode of economic growthThe face of pressure of RMB appreciation, China should readjust the industrial structure as soon as possible, through administrative means and the market operation rules out high energy consumption, high pollution and low-tech and low added value production enterprises, so that labor-intensiveTo determine the advantages of China's industries, make full use of limited human resources and economic resources, improve product technology level; to develop new technical standards and rules and gradually with the international standards. capital-intensive sector capital flows based sectors. Implementation of our products from low labor cost advantage to the changes in technology, and brand advantages, reduce trade friction, improve our overall competitiveness of export products.(3)expanding domestic demand and reduce excessive dependence on international marketsSince reform and opening, China established an export-oriented strategy for economic development has played a huge role in promoting, China has become the world's third largest trading nation, the economy's external dependence on increased every year. However, excessive dependence on external means that China's economy vulnerable to external shocks, real exchange rate fluctuations also pose a challenge to our economy, the foreign dependency rate should be controlled within a certain range, and actively expand domestic demand.Insufficient domestic demand makes some of the products have sold to overseas markets at a low price, which has accumulated a large number of foreign exchange reserves, resulting in huge trade surplus. Less need to stimulate economic growth is the long-term stable development of China's economy the only way, so to expand domestic demand, especially consumer demand, to achieve people's consumption upgrade, the growth of domestic demand, stimulating economic development.（4）eliminating the expected appreciation of the RMBSumming up the international financial events have emerged, to a certain extent, can be said that the market expectations on the financial events more terrible than the event itself, while the exchange rate appreciation is expected to impact on the market is much more important and special.As the US dollar's slide accelerated in the near future, although the yuan against the US dollar record low against the euro and the yen, but it is still the devaluation, coupled with a serious domestic inflation, the yuan appreciation is expected to linger, to eliminate the market for the renminbi appreciation is expected to become particularly important.中文翻译:人民币升值.摘要：目前，人民币升值引起了广泛关注，因为对一个国家的经济和各国经济利益的影响，国际汇率变动是密切相关的。
毕业论文外文翻译-浅谈人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响
外文资料译文论文题目人民币汇率升值对我国外贸的影响分析专业国际经济与贸易班级姓名学号指导教师职称2012 年 1 月 3 日The impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation to our economy and the foreign tradeThis paper analyzes the causes of RMB exchange rate appreciation, expounds the beneficial effects, adverse effects on our coun-try's economic and foreign trade, and puts for-ward the countermeasures to the effects.Present situation of Chinese foreign trade surplus continues to expand, which is caused by a variety of reasons. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate on China's economy, foreign trade import and export volume and structure have a series of effects, only to take positive and effective measures to make the economy of our country and export enterprises to obtain the sustainable and stable development.1. reasons for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate1.1 Chinese and foreign interest rate differenceInterest rate policy is an important tool of monetary policy. The rate of relative height will affect the capital flow direction is one of the important ways, high interest rates will stimulate the international capital inflow, and reduce its outflow of funds. Thus affecting the scale of international trade, make the difference of interest rate on exchange rate influence the trend of continuous improvement.1.2 Money supply situationRMB exchange rate and China's money supply substantiallypositive correlation, due to the deepening of reform and opening up, foreign investors can not only make use of cheap Chinese labour, more optimistic about China's huge domestic market. Therefore, foreign investment increased substantially. Due to tightening of monetary policy, the RMB fund is quite nervous, the entry of foreign capital and foreign exchange, so appeared apparent oversupply, resulting in the trend of Renminbi rmb.1.3 International balance of payments and foreign exchange reserveThe formation of foreign exchange market and the international trade and investment is not divided, international balance of payment is a country's foreign economic activities of the various payment sum. Under floating exchange rates, the market supply and demand to determine the exchange rate changes, therefore international payments deficit will lead to the devaluation of the currency, the foreign currency appreciation, namely the exchange rate rise. Conversely, international payments surplus caused a decline in foreign exchange rates.1.4 Economic growthA country's economic take-off stage, due to the low level of productivity, economic development performance for the extensive mode of operation, and thus their own currency exchange rate decreased, i.e.. A country's economy is relatively mature stage, consumer demand as income and growth, but the growth that consumes demand to catch the output supply growth, so in the period of rapid economic growth, supply relative consumption demand, so asto have a downward pressure on prices.2. The exchange rate of RMB appreciation on China's economy and foreign trade favourable effects2.1 Be helpful for Chinese enterprises to "go out"The appreciation of the renminbi means that Chinese enterprises to invest abroad cost relatively drops than before, which makes them to lower the cost of the establishment of multinational companies. So it is beneficial to the Chinese enterprises to "go out", to create a truly international competitiveness of Chinese transnational corporation. 2.2 Will help improve trade conditionsThe appreciation of the renminbi, export prices higher, you can use less export products in return for their own needs a variety of products. Export profit increases ceaselessly, can improve our terms of trade.2.3 Conducive to reduce external debt debt service pressureThe rise in the renminbi exchange rate, outstanding debt servicing required the amount of local currency is correspondingly reduced, to a certain extent so as to reduce the burden of external debt.2.4 Conducive to promoting the transformation of foreign trade growth modeThe appreciation of the renminbi has contributed to China's foreign trade growth mode from extensive original shift quality and cost-effective intensive, this will bring the improvement of export structure, encourage technological innovation, sustainable development.2.5 Conducive to lower import costsAfter revaluation, the price of imported goods will have the same magnitude of decline, reducing our cost of imports and import fees paid. The appreciation of the renminbi will make large transaction costs of imports, so as to improve the profit situation of related industries, to economy construction is very favorable.2.6 Be helpful for improving the environment of attracting foreign investmentThe appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, can make have foreign-funded enterprises in China increased profits, so as to enhance the confidence of investors, to further increase investment or investment; the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will attract a lot of foreign capital into China 's capital market, indirect investment proportion will be increased further.3. The exchange rate of RMB appreciation on China's economy and foreign trade adverse effects3.1 The influence of Chinese enterprise and many integrated competition ability of the industryThe appreciation of the renminbi will lead to certain technical content and added value is low, poor management, high cost and low efficiency of export enterprises lose in the price in the international market competitive advantage, eventually had to be eliminated.3.2 Increasing employment pressureRMB appreciation will restrain or hit exports, will ultimatelyaffect the employment. In the current China's employment situation is extremely grim situation, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will be worse employment situation.3.3 The agriculture of our country will face greater challengesThe appreciation of the renminbi will block trade of China's agricultural products export growth, import will increase apparently, production of our country agriculture will cause impact, influence farmer to add close. Import and export trade of agricultural products could be reversed, with surplus to deficit.3.4 The impact of the financial market stabilityChina financial market development lags behind relatively, the appreciation of the renminbi will be a large number of short-term capital flows into the capital market through various channels, the profit-seeking behavior, easily lead to monetary and financial crisis, the Chinese economy will be sustained and healthy development causes adverse effect.3.5 Weaken China's export growthThe appreciation of the renminbi, China's manufacturing industry in the global competition will gradually disappear, easy manufacturing overseas. The value of the renminbi, export enterprises to maintain a certain profit, the export unit of foreign currency prices will increase, not conducive to exports continued to expand and in the international market share increase.3.6 Export growth is restricted to the export enterprises, bring a lossThe appreciation of the renminbi, if China's export commoditiesdenominated in foreign currency prices unchanged, requires the export commodities denominated in Renminbi price decline, in this way, China's exports will not be affected, but our country enterprise 's profit fell by.3.7 Not conducive to attracting foreign investment in ChinaThe appreciation of the renminbi to processing trade of foreign enterprises export cost increase, so that the processing trade of the foreign investment decline. This will affect foreign investment enterprises,Profit to investment scale and industry localization process, is not conducive to China 's processing trade industry sustainable development, upgrade.4. In view of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate on China's economy and foreign trade 's influence, proposed countermeasures 4.1 Develop an international market energetically?In order to future export trade, long-term development? In addition to continue to consolidate and further develop the traditional American, Japanese, European market?, enterprises should also actively looking for and open up new target markets, such as Africa, ASEAN and other potential huge market, promote the diversification of the market, enterprises to expand exports, to the export enterprises to bring new profit source.4.2 To alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciationWe can adjust the foreign trade structure to reduce the reliance onthe American market. In view of capital inflow pressures, continue to encourage the inflow of foreign capital in the. According to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves has brought the pressure, we can take measures to appropriate control of its growth rate, as the gradual adjustment of the RMB exchange rate level and lay the foundation for.4.3 Improve product quality, create their own brandIn order to improve the export products in the international market competition, China's export enterprises to deal with the RMB appreciation is another key measures to realize the upgrading of products, to build their own brands, from to the price advantage competition to quality and brand and price advantage to participate in international competition.4.4 Change the mode of growth of export tradeThe new technology, new energy, new materials and other high-tech penetration into traditional industries to them, so that our export products by labor concentrated model, resource intensive to high technology content, the degree of processing depth, high value-added new products. And to the development of high-tech industry.4.5 Timely adjustment of exchange rate and exchange rate systemWe should realize the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate policy, successfully, for the future of the stability of macro economy, trade and Industry Department trade departments the balance between development and sustainable economic growth in China have a profound and positive significance. And this, to be on the governmentto take decisive measures, eliminate the appreciation expectation.4.6 Reduce production and transaction costThe export enterprises may through strengthen management, straighten out the internal process, reduce the management cost; using the appreciation of the renminbi, increase the import raw materials from abroad, to reduce the material cost; direct contact with foreign or make full use of the Internet to the development of electronic commerce, export less intermediate links, improving the trading efficiency, reduce transaction costs.Authors: Aaron Johnson, 《The impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation to our economy and the foreign trade》2009.08浅谈人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响本文分析了人民币汇率升值的原因，阐述了人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的有利影响、不利影响，并针对人民币汇率升值对我国经济及外贸的影响，提出了对策。
人民币升值问题中英文对照外文翻译文献
人民币升值研究外文翻译文献(含：英文原文及中文译文)文献出处：Y ang W, Lam K C J. An ethical analysis of economic issues related to the appreciation of Renminbi[J]. Asian Journal of Business Ethics, 2012, 1(1):79-87.英文原文An ethical analysis of economic issues related to the appreciation ofRenminbiY ang W, Lam K C JAbstractSince the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the exchange rate between China and USA has drawn a lot of attention. Because of the balance of payments surplus, China has accumulated a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and there is much pressure on the Renminbi (RMB) to appreciate. The appreciation of RMB has raised a series of intertwining economic and ethical concerns in China. This paper is an inter-disciplinary study to illustrate the inter-relationship between economics and ethics. We analyze the major economic factors affecting the trend of exchange rate of RMB and the effects of its appreciation. We then discuss the ethical implications of the appreciation and conclude with some policy suggestions to address the economic and the ethical concerns.Keywords: Economic ethics, Renminbi, Exchange rate, Appreciation IntroductionIntroductionIn an open economy, the effect of exchange rate on external trade and other economic institutions has drawn much attention among scholars in China and other countries alike. According to macroeconomic theory, given some standard assumptions, changes in exchange rate will affect the price of domestic goods relative to the price of foreign goods, and thus, the pattern of expenditures will be affected. In general, a depreciation of the domestic currency can stimulate exports while discouraging imports. If the demand for imports and exports are price elastic, there will be an improvement in the balance of trade. In China, the depreciation of Renminbi (RMB) in the 1990s resulted in an observable effect on the balance of payments deficit. The relatively cheap exports gave China a competitive advantage, and the balance of payments deficit turned into a surplus within a short time, accompanied by an accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves. In recent years, the accelerated appreciation of RMB has not resulted in a decline in the volume of exports, while USA has not achieved the expected improvement in its balance of payments through the changes in exchange rates. At the same time, the appreciation of RMB has raised a series of economic and ethical concerns. In fact, the ethical issues and theeconomic issues are intertwined as the ethical implications depend on the economic impacts of the appreciation. This paper serves as an inter-disciplinary study to illustrate the inter-relationship between economics and ethics.Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the exchange rate between China and USA has drawn a lot of attention. Western countries have exerted great pressure on China to appreciate the RMB. The most controversial issues involve China – USA relationship. For instance, Americans may think that RMB is under-valued so that the balance of payments surplus in China is gained at the expense of the Americans who experience a massive balance of payments deficit. Similarly, it is sometimes claimed that the Chinese workers in the export sectors gain at the expense of the American workers in the import sectors in USA. On the other hand, some well-known economists in USA, including Ben Bernanke and Joseph Stiglitz, have pointed out that appreciation of RMB will not effectively lower the balance of payments deficit in USA since the reduction in imports from China will be replaced by imports from other low-cost countries like Vietnam and Pakistan. The key is to increase the saving rate in USA which is much lower than that in many Asian countries. On the other hand, the current account surplus of China reflects its high national saving rate (Fan 2011). Other than the distributional issue between China and USA, another ethical issue isrelated to the sovereignty or right of a country to manage its own exchange rate based on the benefit of its citizens. These international issues are very complicated, and there is no universally accepted principle for the distribution of benefits and costs across different nations; even if there were, the distributional effects across nations would be very difficult to measure. Therefore, our study will focus on the economic and ethical issues related to the appreciation of RMB within the boundary of the Chinese economy, including the medium and long run effects.Major factors affecting the trend of exchange rate of RMBWe expect an upward trend of RMB exchange rate in general, but the magnitude is difficult to predict. There are several factors that may affect the situation. First, the sustained growth of the economy provides a strong support for the appreciation of RMB. Though the target growth rate of GDP in the 12th 5-year plan has been reduced, it is still at a high level of 7%. With an expectation of high growth, foreign investment in the economy will continue to be strong, providing a solid support for RMB.Second, if the balance of payment surplus continues to grow, there will be greater pressure for RMB to appreciate. In year 2010, China’s current account surplus is 206.2 billion US dollar (USD), representing a growth of 25%, and the growth in foreign reserve assets is about 18%. This heightens the expectation of appreciation.Third, some international factors may affect the trend. It is expected that the growth of the US economy will reach 3%. Its contribution to the growth of the world economy will be bigger than that in year 2010. Comparatively speaking, the growth of the European economy is not optimistic. In the first half of 2010, to repay their debts, Europe’s banking industry borrowed an amount of 400 billion Euros. At the same time, European governments also needed 500 billion Euros to pay for their fiscal deficits, plus several hundreds more as collaterals when their bonds will reach maturity. It is possible that the European financial market will have the second round of debt crisis. To maintain financial sustainability, European governments have to reduce their public expenditures. Since unemployment rate is very high, the internal engine for growth is weak. Therefore, the US dollar will perform better than the Euro as an international currency. It is unlikely that devaluation of the US exchange rate will continue for long, there is even a possibility of a reverse trend. Another international factor is that the conflicts over currency exchange rates will affect the RMB exchange rate. Driven by the growth of Asian economies other than Japan, the share of Asian economies (other than Japan) has risen from 16.8% in year 2000 to 25% in year 2010 and is expected to rise to 30% in year 2015. On the other hand, the share of USA has dropped from 23.6% to 20.2% within the same period and will drop further to 18.4% in year 2015. A large amount of US dollargenerated from the quantitative easing policy of USA has flowed into the emerging economies in search of a higher rate of return. Faced with considerable pressure of appreciation caused by the huge inflow of hot money, Asian governments may have to intervene in the market to maintain the stability of economic growth of their countries. This has resulted in the international conflicts over exchange. Capital control and trade restrictions will be considered necessary to protect the national economy.The fourth factor is the inflation in major world economies, and the differential interest rates among different countries. Even though the US economy may start to recover in year 2011, there are still many obstacles. The Federal Reserve of USA will maintain an easy monetary policy to stimulate its economy. At the same time, the single monetary policy target in European countries is price stability which has constrained inflation rate to 2%, and they are not likely to carry out easy monetary policies. However, when they have to tighten fiscal policies in order to solve their debt crisis, the European Central Bank will have to use monetary policies to maintain a low interest rate. On the other hand, the current nominal interest rate in China is 3.1%, which is attractive to international hot money. Given inflationary expectation, the current interest rate is not high enough to curb inflation, which will continue to rise in the medium term. As China tightens its monetary policy, the interest rate will rise. It isexpected that the interest rate differentials between China and the European and USA economies will widen, thus attracting an inflow of capital which puts pressure on the RMB exchange rate.Fifth, internationalization of RMB may affect the exchange rate. One lesson of the global financial crisis is that an international currency system which is based heavily on US dollar is volatile and risky. China is holding a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, amounting to about USD 2.65 trillion. A large proportion of it is in US dollar assets. According to the estimation of the US Treasury, up to October 2010, the value of US Treasury Bonds held by China amounts to USD 906.8 billion, which represents 35% of the total foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, China is most affected by the depreciation of US dollar and has the incentive to move towards internationalization of RMB. Since July 2009, the use of RMB for the settlement of trade has increased. Recently the volume of daily transaction in the foreign exchange market amounts to about USD 400 million. Even though the scale is relatively small compared with the use of US dollar, Euro, or Japanese Y en, it indicates the emerging role played by RMB in the global foreign exchange market and the determination of the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of RMB.Sixth, the price of oil is an important factor that could slow down the appreciation of RMB. The international price of oil has jumped fromUSD 100 per barrel in early 2008 to USD 140. The increase in oil price has an adverse effect on the balance of payments of China which imports around 50% of its oil. This factor will partially offset the other factors which are favorable to the appreciation of RMB. Based on the above analyses and the current economic environment, we expect that an appreciation of RMB would be the major trend in the near future, though the magnitude is uncertain. With this background, we will discuss the effect of appreciation of RMB on China.Effects of appreciation of RMB on ChinaAn appreciation of RMB would have an impact on the economy and the society as a whole. It will directly affect the export sector, with a negative effect on the volume of export, employment, and also profit. The effects will spread, affecting various sectors and social groups in different directions to a different extent, resulting in redistribution effects. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB is not just an economic problem, but also involves ethical issues. We will analyze the effects of appreciation of RMB in China on six main areas: foreign reserve, import/export sector, employment, inflation, standard of living, and income distribution Effect on official foreign exchange reservesTheoretically, when RMB appreciates, the value of foreign exchange reserves in terms of the domestic currency will depreciate accordingly. AsUS dollar assets represent a major share of the official reserves, the loss due to a big depreciation of US dollar can be considerable. The government should plan ahead to minimize the loss due to the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar. Since China has a huge amount of foreign exchange reserves, even if the loss in value is just 1%, it amounts to around USD 5 billion, which is equivalent to about 40 billion RMB. It represents a massive opportunity cost for China as these funds can be used to support education1 and improve health care of the poor. The loss in value of foreign exchange reserve due to the appreciation of RMB is of direct concern to the central monetary authority of China. The Peoples’ Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange would find it unacceptable to let this go on without control. The actions they may take draw much attention from both inside and outside of China, and the level of foreign exchange reserves and their structural changes have become signals for possible changes in the exchange rate of RMB.Effect on import and export sectorsThe appreciation of RMB will increase the international price of China’s export, thus reducing its competitiveness. If the price of export is to be kept low, profit will have to be reduced. This will affect many export industries which are mainly labor intensive. The lower profit and even bankruptcy will cause companies to reduce production andemployment, resulting in an increase in unemployment of low skilled workers. On the other hand, the volume of import is expected to increase since imported consumer products and raw materials will be cheaper in China. The overall effect on the balance of payments depends on the elasticity’s of demand for import and export. It will deteriorate only if the sum of the elasticity’s is greater than one (Marshall– Learner condition). Otherwise, the balance of payments will actually increase upon the appreciation of RMB (Wang 2010). Currently, the majority of the export-oriented industries is labor intensive, and US dollars are used for payments. With an appreciation of RMB, the profit of these industries will decrease. Unlike capital and skill intensive industries which can absorb the loss in cost advantage by other advantages, the value added for labor-intensive industries is relatively low. So their competitiveness is much affected by the loss in cost advantage.However, some economists think that the effect of the appreciation of RMB on export industries may not be very serious. It is estimated that for a 10% appreciation, the burden on the exporters in China and consumers in foreign countries, respectively, is about 5%. A similar empirical study also finds that the price elasticity of export is around −0.6. Based on these estimates, if the effective exchange rate of RMB (which is linked to a basket of currencies) appreciates by 5–6%, the profit of export sector will at most go down by 1.5–1.8%, even assuming that theindustries do not respond by raising productivity. Besides, the structure of export in China is such that more than 55% are export processing. When the prices of exports are raised because of RMB appreciation, the costs of imported materials are lowered at the same time. Therefore, the sensitivity of this sector to an appreciation of the exchange rate is lower than other export industries. At any rate, a restructuring of the export sector to lower cost of production and to increase efficiency can be effective means to reduce the negative effect of the appreciation of exchange rate.Effect on employmentThe Chinese economy is export-oriented. According to the official statistics in year 2009, the proportion of exports and imports to GDP amounts to almost 70%. Export has become one of the most important driving forces for the growth of employment and the economy. In the same year, the value of export alone was USD 593.4 billion; the trading industries employed around 70 million workers. From these numbers, one may conclude that the effect of the appreciation of RMB on reducing export and thus employment could be considerable. In fact, the impact of appreciation on different industries will be different, depending on the extent of import dependence. Moreover, the structure and the nature of products, and profit margins are different across industries and enterprises, and thus, their sensitivities to changes in exchange rate will also vary. Forinstance, we have explained earlier that the sensitivity of the export-processing industries is lower than other export industries.We can classify industries into four types according to the extent and nature of the effect: industries with large adverse effects, industries with little adverse effects, industries with neutral effects, and industries with favorable effects. The first type consists mainly of labor-intensive industries, like textile and clothing, shoe making, toys, motor cars, furniture, lighting, and bicycles, and also agricultural industries and industries with relatively large export dependence. It has been estimated that the affected employment may be more than ten million workers. The effect on agricultural sector is especially notable. In recent years, the major agricultural products for export and import are beans, cotton, corn, and wheat. In year 2009, the total area used for the growing of these four types of agricultural products amounts to 60.85 million acres. This takes up about 40% of total agricultural land, involving an agricultural work force of 100 million. If RMB exchange rate appreciates by 10%, there will be a large decrease in the domestic price of these agricultural products, leading directly to a decrease in demand for these domestically produced products in both the domestic and international market, adversely affecting the employment and income of the agricultural sector. In summary, an appreciation of RMB will exert much pressure on the labor market. The effect is especially great in labor-intensive industries,and the burden will be largely borne by labor in terms of reduced employment opportunities. On the other hand, this may provide an opportunity for an improvement in the structure of employment by a shift towards higher skilled employment.中文译文与人民币升值有关的经济伦理问题Y ang W, Lam K C J摘要自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,人民币兑美元汇率已引起各方关注。
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《中国货币：经济问题分析》概述诸多经济学家争论着人民币升值是有助于恢复世界经济平衡的一个重要因素。
他们还敦促中国实施政策使消费者要求，而非出口和固定资产投资，这一主要经济增长来源。
有人认为人民币升值是促进中国进口额的一种方式，可以促成全球经济的快速复苏。
中国官员承认再平衡经济的需求，他们强烈反对国际上对升值和通货的压力，称之为“贸易保护主义”。
有人把这一政策归于关心中国政府实施政策改变过快导致社会不稳定。
当奥巴马政权已迫使中国升值其货币时，也鼓励它继续购买美国国债。
截止2010年7月中国共持有8470亿美元国债，是美国最大的国债持有国。
一些分析显示尽管中国的货币升值能够推动美国对中国的出口，它也可以减少中国购买美国国债的需要，能够提高美国的利率。
这将导致中国制造产品提高对美国消费者的价格，同样提高对于中国制造的输入美国公司生产他们产品的价格。
诸多经济学家分析，即使中国显著地升值其货币，美国也仍需增加其储备并减少国内需求（特别是预算赤字），为了减少长期的贸易不平衡，中国将不得不降低其储备并增加消费。
中国货币的历史背景在1994年之前，中国保持着双重汇率制度。
由一个官方的固定汇率制度（由政府使用）和由进出口商在外汇掉期市场使用的一篮子货币制度所构成，尽管为了进口管制极大地限制了外汇所得，导致出现大规模外汇黑市。
这两个汇率有显著区别。
1993年官方兑美元汇率为5.77元与此相对的是外汇掉期市场上的8.7元。
中国的双重汇率制度（以及其他政策）因限制了中国在外国方面的进口而受美国批评。
1994年，中国政府统一了两种汇率制度，最初为兑美元8.7元，最后到1997年为止被允许升值到8.28并相对稳定到2005年7月。
人民币在活期存款（交易）的基础上变得可自由兑换，但非固定资产账户，这意味着元对于投资目的而言不是通常可以获得的。
自1994年至2005年，中国维持了人民币紧盯美元政策意图给中国的外贸和投资改善相对稳定的环境（这个政策防止汇率的大波动）———一个许多发展中国家在它们发展初级阶段所使用的政策。
中国中央人民银行通过为新印刷的元买入（或卖出）同等以美元计价的资产作为交换，消除过度需求元（或供给元）来维持这一固定汇率。
因此，美元对人民币的汇率基本保持不变，尽管可能会转变经济要素，否则会引起人民币相对美元的升值（或贬值）。
在浮动汇率机制下，对两国商品和资产的相关需求将决定人民币对美元的汇率。
汇率传递的角色另一个需要考虑的因素是尝试评估人民币升值对贸易往来的影响，研究价格如何转嫁或分配。
如果人民币兑美元升值，并非所有价格增加因其升值可能被转嫁到美国消费者。
其中一些会被中国劳动力，生产商或出口商和一些美国进口商，批发商和零售商等等所吸收。
按照美国劳动部门从2005年7月至2008年7月统计，美国从中国2005年7月至2008年7月的进口指数增长5.2%（同比美国非石油产品的进口指数增长13.2%），这将表明人民币升值转嫁给美国消费者的价格增加是很少的。
如果价格没有完全地通过消费者转嫁，那么中国进口的消费者需求将低于实际需求，其他一切相同。
近期人民币发展中国领导人们已表示强烈反对在他们货币政策上的外在压力，称之为是对中国的国内经济政策的一种保护和干涉形式，有人质疑中国货币是否一直被低估了。
然而，在2010年6月19号，中国央行即中国中央人民银行（PBC）说，基于现阶段经济条件，已决定“进一步改革人民币汇率制度增强人民币汇率机制的灵活性。
”排除任何一次性大评估，“为避免大量且密集的人民币汇率波动这十分重要，”在某种程度上一边与中国公司能够更容易的适应（例如通过改良升级）货币升值。
很多观察者认为这次人民币的调整宣布时机是为了防止中国货币政策成为在2010年6月26至27日于多伦多举行的G-20峰会的焦点。
2010年6月22日，在之前一天人民币兑美元升值0.43%为6.80元，同时这是自2005年7月改革实施以来当日升值最大的一次。
然而，在接下来的一天6月23日人民币贬值到6.81元。
如图3所示是人民币汇率对美元在过去几个月的涨跌，但总体上，至道2010年10月1日升值了1.9%，大部分升值发生在9月。
一些分析认为2010年9月的货币升值相比经济条件更重要的是中国人关心国会对货币可能的行动。
来源: 中国银行备注: 截止（周五）时中间汇率. 2010年.基于人民币升值对贸易往来和赤字影响的争论，许多政策决策者可能期望如果中国显著地升值其货币，美国出口至中国将增加，来自中国的进口将下跌，美国贸易赤字在相对短时期内将下降。
例如，C·弗雷德·伯格斯坦认为以人民币为市场基础将会降低美国每年1000亿至1500亿的活期账户赤字。
但是，人民币升值对美国经济影响的可能问题表现为短期和长期的人民币升值影响，汇率仅是诸多影响贸易往来的因素之一。
下面讨论其他影响到双边贸易平衡的的因素。
人民币升值期间双边贸易赤字持续增长为说明汇率仅是决定贸易往来的因素中其中一个，我们可以观察中美2005年7月至2008年7月人民币升值21%的影响。
另一方面，美国在此期间，由中国的进口增值39%，同比2001年至2004年增加了92%（当汇率保持不变时）。
此外，美国2005年-2008年出口至中国的速度不及2001-2004年（71%比81%）。
不管2005到2008年的人民币升值，尽管美国全体活期账户赤字下降近6%，美国同中国的贸易赤字仍然提高了30.1%。
人民币升值似乎对中国2005到2008年的总体贸易平衡产生细微影响。
在这段时间内，中国商品贸易顺差从1020亿美元增至2970亿美元，增加191%，中国活期存款账户结余和外汇储备积累在此期间均增加了165%本段翻译节选自：《China’s Currency: An Analysis of the Economic Issues》Wayne M. MorrisonSpecialist in Asian Trade and FinanceMarc LabonteSpecialist in Macroeconomic PolicyOctober 1, 2010原文文献：SummaryMany economists have argued that RMB appreciation is an important factor in helping to rebalance the world economy. They have also urged China to implement policies to make consumer demand, rather than exports and fixed investment, the main sources of economic growth. Some see RMB appreciation as a way of boosting China’s imports, which could contribute to a faster global economic recovery. While Chinese officials acknowledge the need to rebalance the economy, they have strongly resisted international pressure to appreciate and reform the currency, calling it “protectionism.” Some attribute this policy to concerns by the Chinese government that implementing policy changes too rapidly could lead to social instability.While the Obama Administration has pushed China to appreciate its currency, it has also encouraged it to continue purchasing U.S. Treasury securities. China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities, which totaled $847 billion as of July 2010. Some analysts contend that, although an appreciation of China’s currency could help boost U.S. exports to China, it could also lessen China’s need to buy U.S. Treasury securities, which could push up U.S. interes t rates. It could result in higher prices of Chinese-made goods for U.S. consumers, as well as for Chinese-made inputs that U.S. firms use in their production. Many economists contend that, even if China significantly appreciated its currency, the United States would still need to increase its savings and reduce domestic demand (particularly the budget deficit), and China would have to lower its savings and increase consumption, in order to reduce trade imbalances in the long run.Historical Background on China’s CurrencyPrior to 1994, China maintained a dual exchange rate system. This consisted of an official fixed exchange rate system (which was used by the government), and a relatively market-based exchange rate system that was used by importers and ex porters in “swap markets,” although access to foreign exchange washighly restricted in order to limit imports, resulting in a large black market for foreign exchange. The two exchange rates differed significantly. The official exchange rate with the dollar in 1993 was 5.77 yuan versus 8.70 yuan in the swap markets. China’s dual exchange rate system was criticized by the United States because of the restrictions it (and other policies) placed on foreign imports.In 1994, the Chinese government unified the two exchange rate systems at an initial rate of 8.70 yuan to the dollar, which eventually was allowed to rise to 8.28 by 1997 and was then kept relatively constant until July 2005. The RMB became largely convertible on a current account (trade) basis, but not on a capital account basis, meaning that yuan are not regularly obtainable for investment purposes. From 1994 until July 2005, China maintained a policy of pegging the RMB to the U.S. dollar at an exchange rate of roughly 8.28 yuan to the dollar. The peg appears to have been largely intended to promote a relatively stable environment for foreign trade and investment in China (since such a policy prevents large swings in exchange rates)—a policy utilized by many developing countries in their early development stages. The Chinese central bank maintained this peg by buying (or selling) as many dollar-denominated assets in exchange for newly printed yuan as needed to eliminate excess demand (supply) for the yuan. As a result, the exchange rate between the RMB and the dollar basically stayed the same, despite changing economic factors which could have otherwise caused the yuan to appreciate (or depreciate) relative to the dollar. Under a floating exchange rate system, the relative demand for the two countries’ goods and assets would determine the exchange rate of the RMB to the dollar.Another factor to consider in attempting to evaluate the effects of an RMB appreciation on trade flows is to examine how price changes would be passed on or distributed. If the RMB appreciates against the dollar, not all of the price increase resulting from the appreciation may be passed on to the U.S. consumer. Some of it may be absorbed by Chinese laborers, producers, or exporters, and some by U.S. importers, wholesalers, retailers, etc. According to the U.S. Department of Labor, from July 2005 to July 2008, the price index for U.S.imports from China from July 2005 to July 2008, rose by 5.2% (compared to a 13.2% rise in import prices for total U.S. imports of non- petroleum products).46 This would suggest that very little of the price increase that might have resulted from the RMB’s appreciation was passed on to U.S. consumers.47 If prices are not completely passed through to consumers, then consumer demand for Chinese imports will fall less than if they were, all else equal.Recent RMB DevelopmentsChinese leaders have expressed strong opposition to outside pressure on their currency policy, calling it a form of protectionism and interference in China’s domestic economic policy, and some have even questioned whether the currency is undervalued at all. However, on June 19, 2010, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) stated that, based on current economic conditions, it had decided to “proceed further with r eform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.” It ruled out any large one-time revaluations, stating “it is important to avoid any sharp and massive fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate,” in part so that Chinese corporations could more easily adjust (such as through upgrading) to an appreciation of the currency. Many observers contend the timing of the RMB announcement was intended in part to prevent China’s currency policy from being a central focus of the G-20 summit in Toronto from June 26-27, 2010.On June 22, 2010, the RMB appreciated by 0.43% against the dollar (to 6.80 yuan) over the previous day, which, at the time, was the largest daily rise since reforms were implemented in July 2005. However, on the following day (June 23) it depreciated to 6.81 yuan. As indicated in Figure 3, the yuan’s exchange rate with the dollar has gone up and down over the past few months, but overall, it has appreciated by 1.9% through October 1, 2010, with most of that appreciation occurring in September. 3 Some analysts contend that the appreciation of the currency in September 2010 has had more to do with Chinese concerns over possible congressional action on the currency than economic considerations.The Debate over the Effects of Exchange Rate Appreciation on Trade Flows and the DeficitMany policymakers might expect that if China significantly appreciated its currency, U.S. exports to China would rise, imports from China would fall, and the U.S. trade deficit would decline within a relatively short period of time. For example, C. Fred Bergsten contends that a market- based RMB would lower the annual U.S. current account deficit by $100 billion to $150 billion. But the issue of the possible effects of an RMB appreciation on the U.S. economy is complicated by the fact that there are short-term and long-term implications of RMB appreciation, and that exchange rates are but one of many factors that affect trade flows. Other factors affecting the bilateral trade balance are discussed below.The Bilateral Trade Deficit Continued to Grow during the Previous Period of RMB AppreciationTo illustrate that exchange rates are only one factor that determine trade flows, one can look at the effect of the 21% RMB appreciation of the RMB to the dollar from July 2005 to July 2008 on U.S.-China trade flows. On the one hand, during this period U.S. imports from China increased by 39%, compared to a 92% increase from 2001 to 2004 (when the exchange rate remained constant).42 On the other hand, U.S. exports to China during the 2005-2008 period did not grow as fast as during the 2001-2004 period (71% versus 81%).43 Despite the RMB’s appreciation from 2005 to 2008, the U.S. trade deficit with China still rose by 30.1%, although the overall U.S. current account deficit declined by nearly 6%.44 The appr eciation of the RMB appears to have little effect on China’s overall trade balance from 2005 to 2008. During this time, China’s merchandise trade surplus increased from $102 billion to $297 billion, an increase of 191%, and China’s current account surplus and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves both increased by 165% over this period.。