第二节 自然灾害对粮食安全的影响

第二节自然灾害对粮食安全的影响

粮食产量不仅与一国的耕地面积、农业劳动人口、农业机械化水平和农业科技水平等因素相关，还与一国的自然灾害有着密切的关系。中国自古以来自然灾害种类多，发生频率高，分布范围广，极易受灾害袭击且受灾严重。因此，要制定恰当的粮食安全政策必须研究自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。本节分析所用数据分为两类：一类是我们所调查的2004～2008年农民种粮行为的微观数据；另一类是基于年鉴数据，涉及国家自然灾害及粮食产量的宏观数据。

Chapter two

The influence of the natural calamities on food security Grain production is not only related to these factors, such as the arable land area of a nation, the population of farming, the level of agricultural mechanization and technology, but also have a close relationship with natural calamities. Since ancient times, the natural calamities in China are varied with high frequency, covering large areas, and easy to be seriously affected by them. Therefore, we need to make appropriate grain security policies by investigating the effects to the grain production caused by natural disasters. In this chapter, the data we will utilize fall into two categories: one is the micro data concerning the grain production behaviors of farmers based on our survey between 2004 and 2008, and the other grounds on the data of yearbook related to the natural calamities and the grain output in China.

1．农户受灾情况分析

我们在对农户种粮行为进行问卷调查时，询问了2004～2008年经历灾情的农户受灾及减产情况，收到有效问卷1619份。表13-1显示，2004～2008年受灾农户占调查农户的百分比相当稳定，除一年为20.07%外，其余均为22%稍高。受灾农户平均减产15%～21%，平均为17.27%，且有相当的稳定性，没有趋势性变化。

1．An analysis on farmers’ disaster situation

During the questionnaire survey concerning the production behaviors of farmers’, we enquired those suffered the disasters between 2004 and 2008 about their production situation, and got 1619 valid questionnaires. Table 13-1 shows that the farmers affected had a quite stable proportion in the survey during that period, except one year 20.07%, the others being 22% or more. The affected farmers’ crops got a production by 15%~21%, and 17.2 7% on average, and this situation was stable, having no changes in tendency.

Table 13-1: The Affected Farmers’ Situation

Year

Affected farmers

Percentage they occupied in our survey

Their average reduction percentage

表13-1 受灾农户情况

2．全国受灾情况分析

《中国统计年鉴2009》报告了历年农业受灾面积、成灾面积。受灾面积是指如冰雹、大风暴、洪涝灾害、持续干旱、台风、暴雪等自然灾害造成农业损失所覆盖的面积。成灾面积是指在遭受上述自然灾害的受灾面积中，农作物实际收获量较常年产量减少3成以上的播种面积。据此计算受灾面积、成灾面积占播种面积的比例以及成灾面积占受灾面积的比例。图13-1报告了受灾比例、成灾比例，图13-2报告了成灾面积与受灾面积之比。

2. An analysis on the disaster situation in our nation

China Statistical Yearbook 2009 gives us a clear description about the affected area and disastrous area of agriculture in the past years. The affected area refers to the area where natural disasters, such as hails,

storms, floods, sustaining droughts, typhoons or blizzards, hit and caused certain damage. The disastrous area refers to the place where any of the natural disasters given above attack and crops have a production by 30% in contrast with the ordinary years. Based on these, we can calculate the proportion of the affected area and the disastrous area in the sown area. Table 13-1 shows us the affected area and the disastrous area, and table 13-2 represents the proportion of them accordingly.

The affected percentage

The disastrous percentage

The percentage they occupy in the sown area

Year

Table 13-1: the ratio between the affected area and the disastrous area Source from China Statistical Yearbook 2009

The ratio of the disastrous area occupied in the affected area

图13-1 受灾比例、成灾比例