索罗斯的五个演讲

索罗斯的五个演讲

1.第一讲：人的不确定性原则

I shall explain the concepts of fallibility and reflexivity in general terms

大致介绍易误论和相反射论的基本内容

2. 第二讲：将此理念运用于分析金融市场

Tomorrow I shall apply them to the financial markets

3.第三讲：运用于分析政治问题，也涉及开放社会的理念

And after that to politics, that also bring in the concept of open society

4.第四讲：将探讨市场价值与道德价值的区别

In the fourth lecture I shall explore the difference between market values and moral valus

5.第五讲：对眼下面临的历史时刻提出一些预测和处方

In the fifth I give some predictions and prescriptions for the present moment in history。

可以用两个相对简单的命题说明我的核心思想。

I can state the core idea in two relatively simple propositions.

一个是有思维能力的参与者的情况下，参与者对世界的看法永远是和曲解的。这是谬误难免论，即易误论。

One is that in situations that have thinking participants, the

participants’view of the world is always partial and distorted. That is the principle of fallibility.

另一个是这些曲解了的观点可以影响参与者所处的情况因为错误的看法会导致错误的行为

The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate because false views lead to inappropriate actions.

这是想到影响的“相关反射原则”

That is the principle of reflexivity

GeneralTheoryofReflexivity

Inthecourseofmylife,Ihavedevelopedaconceptualframeworkwhichhashel pedmebothtomakemoneyasahedgefundmanagerandtospendmoneyasapolicyo rientedphilanthropist.Buttheframeworkitselfisnotaboutmoney,itisabouttherel ationshipbetweenthinkingandreality,asubjectthathasbeenextensivelystudiedb yphilosophersfromearlyon.IstarteddevelopingmyphilosophyasastudentattheL ondonSchoolofEconomicsinthelate1950s.Itookmyfinalexamsoneyearearlyan dIhadayeartofillbeforeIwasqualifiedtoreceivemydegree.Icouldchoosemytutor andIchoseKarlPopper,theViennese-bornphilosopherwhosebookTheOpenSoc ietyandItsEnemieshadmadeaprofoundimpressiononme.

InhisbooksPopperarguedthattheempiricaltruthcannotbeknownwithabsol utecertainty.Evenscientificlawscan'tbeverifiedbeyondashadowofadoubt:they canonlybefalsifiedbytesting.Onefailedtestisenoughtofalsify,butnoamountofc onforminginstancesissufficienttoverify.Scientificlawsarehypotheticalinchara cterandtheirtruthremainssubjecttotesting.Ideologieswhichclaimtobeinpossess ionoftheultimatetrutharemakingafalseclaim;therefore,theycanbeimposedonso cietyonlybyforce.ThisappliestoCommunism,FascismandNationalSocialismal ike.Alltheseideologiesleadtorepression.Popperproposedamoreattractiveform ofsocialorganization:anopensocietyinwhichpeoplearefreetoholddivergentopi

nionsandtheruleoflawallowspeoplewithdifferentviewsandintereststolivetoget herinpeace.HavinglivedthroughbothNaziandCommunistoccupationhereinHu ngary,Ifoundtheideaofanopensocietyimmenselyattractive.

WhileIwasreadingPopperIwasalsostudyingeconomictheoryandIwasstruc kbythecontradictionbetweenPopper'semphasisonimperfectunderstandingandt hetheoryofperfectcompetitionineconomicswhichpostulatedperfectknowledge .Thisledmetostartquestioningtheassumptionsofeconomictheory.Thesewereth etwomajortheoreticalinspirationsofmyphilosophy.Itisalsodeeplyrootedinmyp ersonalhistory.

TheformativeexperienceofmylifewastheGermanoccupationofHungaryin 1944.Iwasnotyetfourteenyearsoldatthetime,comingfromareasonablywell-to-d omiddleclassbackground,suddenlyconfrontedwiththeprospectofbeingdeporte dandkilledjustbecauseIwasJewish.

索罗斯中欧大学系列演讲（五讲）

几十年前，为了保卫开放社会，卡尔波普尔将批判的炮火对准了马克思主义。然而几十年之后，声称是波普尔学生