无形之手

无形之手

经济控制起来很棘手，各国政府总是在想尽办法弄清楚怎么做

1776年经济学家亚当-斯密的话震惊了所有人，他说政府所要做的就是别插手让人们自由进行买卖。他认为让只关注自身利益的交易者相互竞争，市场会被引向正途“就像被一只无形的手所引导”。如果某人卖的比你便宜，顾客会到他那里买，所以你需要降价或者提供更好的产品。人们需要某种产品时，产品会由市场供给，他们就像受宠的孩子，只有这样大家才能都开心。之后自由市场学者比如奥地利经济学家弗里德里希-哈耶克，认为这种“放手”方式比任何中央计划方式都好。但问题在于，经济需要很长时间才能达到“均衡”，甚至有可能在中途停滞。这期间，人们可能会有一些泄气，这就是政府经常也会使用其“有形之手”的原因。

The Invisible Hand

An economy is a tricky thing to control and governments are always trying to figure out how to do it..

Back in 1776 economist Adam Smith shocked everyone by saying that what government should actually do is just leave people alone to buy and sell freely among themselves. He suggested that if they just leave self-interested traders to compete with one another , markets are guided to positive outcomes ‘as if by an invisible hand’. If someone charges less than you ,customers will buy from them instead—so you have to lower the price or offer something better .Whatever enough people demand something ,they will be supplied by the market -- like spoilt children –only in this case ,everyone’s happy .Later free-marketeers like Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek ,argued that this ‘hands off’ approach actually works better than any kind of central plan ..But the problem is , economies can take a long time to reach their ’equilibrium’ and may even stall along the way . And in the meantime people can get a little frustrated , which is why governments usually end up taking things into their own more visible hands instead.

节约悖论

就像小孩拿到零花钱一样，经济学中的最大难题仍旧是存还是花。

自由市场学者如哈耶克和米尔顿-弗里德曼，认为哪怕在最艰难的时期也应该节约，存钱。然后银行将这些存款引入到投资领域，建立新工厂，培训新技能，研发新技术，从而生产更多产品。哪怕新技术会改变就业状况，工资降低，但是招募的工人会更多，这样失业率又会降低。很简单。至少从长期来看是这样。但后来，一个崇尚“过得快活，死了也值”的家伙约翰-梅内德-凯恩斯欢快的指出，“长期来看，我们都会死”，所以为了避免失业的痛苦，政府需要花钱来创造工作。如果政府勒紧裤腰带，生意人也是如此，花的更少，失业率会更糟。这就是节约悖论。所以政府应该先花钱，每个人高兴之后再征税，虽然如何让人们乐于交税连凯恩斯自己都无法解决。

The Paradox of Thrift

Much like a child getting his pocket money ,one of the biggest economic questions is still whether it’s better to save or spend.

Free - marketeers like Hayek and Milton Friedman ,say that ,even in difficult times ,it is best to be thrifty and save .Banks then channel the savings into investment ,in new plants ,skills and techniques that let us produce more .And even if this new technology destroys jobs ,wages will drop ,and businesses hire more people – so unemployment falls again .Simple .At least in the long run. But then a ‘live-fast-die-young’ kinda chap called John Maynard Keynes cheerfully pointed out that ‘in the long run we’re all dead’.So to avoid the misery of unemployment ,the

governments should instead spend money to create jobs .Whereas if the government tightens its belt when people and businesses are doing the same ,less is spent , so unemployment gets even worse .that is the paradox of thrift .So instead they should spend now and tax later when everyone’s happy to pay – Though making people happy to pay tax was something even Keynes didn’t solve.

菲利普斯曲线

比尔-菲利普斯是新西兰的猎鳄人和经济学家，他发现就业率高时，工资增长的快，人们有更多的钱花，价格也会增加，通胀也是如此。同样当失业率升高的时候，人们缺少钱花就意味着通胀下降。这被称为菲利普斯曲线。政府甚至根据此曲线制定政策，在花更多的钱创造就业机会的同时容忍通胀。但是政府忘了工人们也能看到曲线的效果。所以当失业率下降的时候，工人们预测到通胀并且要求更高的工作，从而导致失业率回升，但通胀仍然居高不下。这就是二十世纪七十年代失业率和通胀同时增加的情况。然后九十年代通胀居低位时失业率下降。这些情况都无法用菲利普斯的曲线解释。但至少菲利普斯给出的讨厌的取舍关系部分还存在，在高增长饱和就业的情况下，你可以打赌，通胀会出来制造麻烦。

The Phillips Curve

Bill Phillips was a crocodile hunter and economist from New Zealand ,who spotted that ,when employment levels are high ,wages rise faster – people have more money to spend ,so price go up and so does inflation .And likewise ,when unemployment is high ,the lack of money to spend means that inflation goes down . This became known as the Phillips Curve .Governments even set policy by the curve , tolerating the inflation when they spent extra money creating jobs . But they forgot that the workers could also see the effects of the curve . So , when unemployment went down , they expected inflation and demanded higher wages , causing unemployment to go back up , while inflation remained high . Which is what happened in the 1970s when both inflation an unemployment rose . Then in the 90s unemployment dropped while inflation stayed low , which all rather took the bend out of Phillips’ curve . But at least part of Phillips’ troublesome trade-off lives on : when faster growth and full employment return , you can bet inflation will be along to spoil the party .

比较优势原理

The Principle of Comparative Advantage

Whether you think economies work best if they’re left alone or that governments need to do something to get them working , the one thing that can’t be controlled is that rest of the world .Fear of foreign competition once led countries to try and produce everything they needed , and impose heavy taxes to keep out foreign goods . However , economist David Ricardo showed that international trade could actually make everyone better off , bringing in one of the first great economic models . He pointed out that , even if a country can produce pretty much everything at the lowest possible cost , with what economists call an ‘ absolute advantage ’ , it’s still better to focus on the products it can make most efficiently - - that sacrifice the least amount of other goods - - and let the rest of the world do the same . By specializing , they can then export these surpluses to each other and both end up better off . This is the principle of comparative advantage - - and it has persuaded many countries to sign up to free-trade agreements , but unfortunately , it can take a long time for countries to trade their way to prosperity . And because it’s now much easier to move to where the money is –it’s increasingly not only goods that cross borders , but people ,which has somewhat uprooted Ricardo’s theory .