卢布贬值的影响及对中国的启示

海南大学

课程论文（设计）

题目：卢布贬值的影响及对中国的启示学号：**************

*名：**

年级：2012级

学院：经济与管理学院

专业：金融学

指导教师：**

完成日期：2015 年 5 月10 日

卢布贬值的影响及对中国的启示

摘要

2014年,俄罗斯受到来自国际与国内多重复杂因素的综合影响，面对乌克兰危机、国际原油价格暴跌以及欧美国家的一系列制裁，其当局应对措施的采取不当，卢布汇率出现了持续下跌，国内通胀压力明显增强。此次事件虽然给俄罗斯带来严重损失，却也给世界诸多新兴经济体带来了一些值得重视的警示。从此次事件中吸取教训，获得重要启示，对于我国维持自身经济的平稳较快发展具有重要意义。

论文第一部分通过美元兑卢布汇率的折线图阐述了卢布汇率暴跌的过程与现状。第二部分研究了卢布汇率暴跌的原因。第三部分分析了卢布汇率暴跌的影响。第四部分得出此次事件对我国的启示。通过分析此次卢布贬值事件得出我国要加快经济转型，从根本上消除发生类似卢布贬值事件的隐患；为了保持人民币汇率稳定，我国应将外汇储备控制在合理区间；同时为了更好地应对类似突发事件，充分发挥利率对市场的调节作用，我国应适时适度的运用货币政策。

关键词：卢布原油暴跌启示

Abstract

In 2014,Russia suffer from the combined effects of multiple and complex international and domestic factors.Faced with the crisis in Ukraine, international crude oil prices plummeted and a series of sanctions from European countries,government authorities to take measures inappropriate,so Ruble exchange rate continued to fall, domestic inflation pressures significantly enhanced.Although the incident caused serious losses to Russia,but also to the world and many emerging economies brought some noteworthy warning.Learn the lessons from this incident, obtained important implications for our economy to maintain steady and rapid development itself has great significance.

In this article,the first part through a line chart of dollar-ruble exchange rate to describes the process and current situation of the ruble plummeted.The second part study the plummeted of the ruble exchange rate reasons.The third part analyzes the impact of the ruble plummeted.The fourth part of this article draw inspiration to China.By analyzing the event of the devaluation of the ruble,we should speed up economic restructuring, to eliminate the occurrence of similar incidents risks ruble devaluation radically;in order to maintain the RMB exchange rate stability, our foreign exchange reserves should be controlled in a reasonable range;meanwhile, in order to better respond to similar emergencies, give full play to the role of interest rates in the market, we should timely and appropriate monetary policy.

Keywords:Ruble Crude oil Plummeted Revelation

目录

一、卢布暴跌过程与现状 (1)

二、卢布汇率暴跌原因 (2)

（一）国际因素 (2)

1.国际原油价格暴跌 (2)

2.乌克兰危机 (2)

3.美元指数上升，新兴市场货币相对贬值 (3)

（二）国内因素 (3)

1.产业结构单一 (3)

2.经济增长内生动力不足，存在滞胀压力 (3)

3.俄政府大举收购外汇，引市场质疑 (4)

4.俄罗斯不合时宜宣布取消汇率走廊限制措施 (4)

三、卢布贬值给俄罗斯及世界经济带来的影响 (4)

（一）国际影响 (4)

1.对股票市场的影响 (4)

2.对外汇市场的影响 (4)

3.对新兴市场货币的影响 (5)

（二）对俄罗斯国内的影响 (5)

1.进一步加剧通胀压力 (5)

2.较高的利率阻碍经济发展 (5)

四、卢布事件对我国的启示 (6)

参考文献 (8)