布兰查德宏观经济学ppt第14章
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Expectations: The Basic Tools
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard 4
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
e r i t t t
Here are some of the implications of the relation above:
If the nominal interest rate and the expected rate of inflation are not too large, a simpler expression is: e r i t 1 t t The real interest rate is (approximately) equal to the nominal interest rate minus the expected rate of inflation.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
6
14-2
Expected Present Discounted Values
Figure 14 - 2
Computing Present Discounted Values
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
7
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
Computing Expected Present Discounted Values
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard 3
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
P P 1 t t r 1 it ) e , and knowing that e Given 1 t ( Pt P t1 ( 1 et ) 1 Pet1 P then, the expected rate of inflation equals e t t1 P t 1 it 1 r Consequently, ( t ) e 1 t 1
The expected present discounted value of a sequence of future payments is the value today of this expected sequence of payments.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
CHAPTER 14 CHAPTER14
14-1
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
Interest Rates expressed in terms of dollars (or, more generally, in units of the national currency) are called nominal interest rates Interest rates expressed in terms of a basket of goods are called real interest rates.
it = nominal interest rate for year t. rt = real interest rate for year t. (1+ it): Lending one dollar this year yields (1+ it) dollars next year. Alternatively, borrowing one dollar this year implies paying back (1+ it) dollars next year. Pt = price this year. Pet+1= expected price next year.
If If
e 0 i r t t t
e 0 i r t t t
e i r t if t t
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
5
Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the United States Since 1978
Figure 14 - 2
Nominal and Real One-Year T-bill Rates in the United States since 1978
Although the nominal interest rate has declined considerably since the early 1980s, the real interest rate was actually higher in 2001 than in 1981.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
2
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
Figure 14 - 1
Definition and Derivation of the Real Interest Rate
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard 4
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
e r i t t t
Here are some of the implications of the relation above:
If the nominal interest rate and the expected rate of inflation are not too large, a simpler expression is: e r i t 1 t t The real interest rate is (approximately) equal to the nominal interest rate minus the expected rate of inflation.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
6
14-2
Expected Present Discounted Values
Figure 14 - 2
Computing Present Discounted Values
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
7
ຫໍສະໝຸດ Baidu
Computing Expected Present Discounted Values
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard 3
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
P P 1 t t r 1 it ) e , and knowing that e Given 1 t ( Pt P t1 ( 1 et ) 1 Pet1 P then, the expected rate of inflation equals e t t1 P t 1 it 1 r Consequently, ( t ) e 1 t 1
The expected present discounted value of a sequence of future payments is the value today of this expected sequence of payments.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
CHAPTER 14 CHAPTER14
14-1
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
Interest Rates expressed in terms of dollars (or, more generally, in units of the national currency) are called nominal interest rates Interest rates expressed in terms of a basket of goods are called real interest rates.
it = nominal interest rate for year t. rt = real interest rate for year t. (1+ it): Lending one dollar this year yields (1+ it) dollars next year. Alternatively, borrowing one dollar this year implies paying back (1+ it) dollars next year. Pt = price this year. Pet+1= expected price next year.
If If
e 0 i r t t t
e 0 i r t t t
e i r t if t t
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
5
Nominal and Real Interest Rates in the United States Since 1978
Figure 14 - 2
Nominal and Real One-Year T-bill Rates in the United States since 1978
Although the nominal interest rate has declined considerably since the early 1980s, the real interest rate was actually higher in 2001 than in 1981.
© 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing
Macroeconomics, 4/e
Olivier Blanchard
2
Nominal Versus Real Interest Rates
Figure 14 - 1
Definition and Derivation of the Real Interest Rate