巴菲特的投资过程.doc

巴菲特的投资过程：简单，但不容易

（夕注：这位朋友对巴菲特的投资方法总结得完整而精炼）

The essence of Buffett’s investment process is putting out cash after careful consideration of the facts with the expectation of a reasonable (or better yet, unreasonable) return.He sees this as fundamentally different from speculation where the emphasis is

not on what an investment is intrinsically worth but on what the next person will pay for it.Buffett does not think that there is anything wrong with speculating per se; it’s simply a game he chooses not to play.

At the center of Buffett’s investment process is the ability to value an asset. To do this requires that you answer only three questions: 巴菲特投资过程的核心是评估资产的能力。如此做法只要求你回答

三个问题：

1.How certain are you that your investment will produce cash?

你的投资会产生现金的确定性有多大？

2.w much cash will it produce and when will it be paid?

会产生多少现金，何时会得到偿付？

3.What is the risk free interest rate? Buffett uses the yield on long-term treasury bonds for the risk free interest rate.

无风险利率是多少？巴菲特用长期国债的收益率当作无风险利率。

Buffett teaches that this basic framework is immutable and can be used to value any type of assetfarms,oil royalties,

stocks,bonds,lottery tickets and manufacturing plants. An

investor can use this framework to evaluate all available assets and then invest in the one that is the cheapest, that is, the one that that offers the most value for the dollars invested.

巴菲特教导说，这个基本框架是永恒的，可以用于各类资产——农庄、oil royalties、股票、债券、彩票和工厂。投资者可以框架来评

价所有的资产资产，然后投资于其中最便宜的一个。

For an investment grade bond, making this calculation of value is easy, because the bond generates a fixed coupon that is contractually bound to be paid on a fixde schedule. However, when valuing a business, it is the investor’s job to estimate the amount and timing of cash that the business will produce. This is inherently imprecise process, yet it can be very useful.

作为一种风险债券（grade bond）投资，作这样的计算是容易的，

因为债券产生固定利息，可以定期得到回报。然而，估价一个企业，投资者却要自己去估算企业能够产生的现金的数量和时间。这本身

是一个不很精确的过程，但却非常有用。

Even if an investor can only come up with a range of values for a prospective investment, such a range of values may allow the investor to make a profitable investment if the investment can be purchased at a price below those values. For example,if your best appraisal of a real estate investment was very imprecise, for example, that the property was worth between $1 million and $2 million, that estimate would still be very useful if you could purchase the property for $700.000.

即使一个投资者对一个预期投资算出一个价值范围，也只有在低于

这个价值时买入，投资者才能赚到利润。例如，你非常不精确地估

价一个房地产投资，价值在100万和200万之间，如果在70万以

下购买这个房产，这个估测还是比较有用的。

Valuation is not primarily a question of how precise it is ,but rather how certain it is ,and whether you can purchase the asset cheaper than the lowest reasonable estimate of value. That is why Buffett’s first question is about certainty. Buffett thinks about risk first and will not invest in a business that he does not understand or that is subject to a lot of change because it makes the analysis of value impossible. Buffett once quipped that if he were teaching a class

on investing, the fimalexan would include asking students to value