金融学综合2004

对外经济贸易大学
2004年攻读硕士学位研究生入学考试
金融学综合试题（试题代码：432）
一、判断（正确的划√，错误的划×。

每题1分，共5分）
1．拉弗曲线表明政府的税收额一定会随着税率的提高而增加。

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2．当政府对某一行业的产品实施最低限价政策时，通常会导致该行业的供给减少，市场需求增加。

（）
3．贷款证券目的首先在于解决信用风险的问题，因此，证券化的最适宜对象是不良贷款。

（）
4．由于法定准备金率的调整对货币流通具有巨大作用，为提高中央银行货币政策的效力，各国的普通做法是强化准备金政策的运用，表现为不仅频繁调整法定准备金率的水平，而且还将法定准备金率置于较高的水平。

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5．平衡法能同时消除时间风险与货币风险。

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二、填空（每空1分，共5分）
1．在经济周期理论中，产量水平的变动与投资支出数量的关系被称为。

2．与私人产品相比，公共产品往往具有非排他性或的特性。

3．《巴塞尔协议》（《关于统一国际银行的资本计算和资本标准的协议》）对资本充足率制定统一监管标准，其主要防范的是风险，其次是风险。

4．在金币本位制度下，汇率波动的上下界限是。

三、多项选择（选择错误或选择不完全均不给分，每题2分，共10分）
1．在均衡收入水平上，（）。

A．计划投资等于实际投资
B．存货投资等于零
C．非计划存货投产等于零
D．计划存货投资等于非计划存货投资
2．以下项目属于中央银行负债内容的有（）。

A．外汇储备B．流通中通货
C．工商贷款D．国库及公共机构存款
3．以下项目属于商业银行表外业务的有（）。

A．租赁业务B．承兑业务
C．信用证业务D．证券投资
4．在下列IMF贷款类型中，属于变通贷款的是（）。

A．缓冲库存贷款B．中期贷款
C．信托基金贷款D．补充贷款
5．指出下列属于短期证券市场的金融工具有（）。

A．国库券B．CD S
C．企业本票D．企业股票
E．承兑汇票
四、名词解释（每题4分，共16分）
1．理性预期
2．蛛网模型
3．金融压抑
4．雷布津斯基定理
五、论述与推导（每题10分，共20分）
1．根据IS－LM模型，推导财政政策乘数和货币政策乘数，并简单说明财政政策乘数和货币政策乘数中的参数对乘数的影响。

2．英国BP公司六个月后将收进7850万美元的出口贷款，为防止美元下跌，拟采用远期外汇业务来避险。

现伦敦市场报价：即期六个月远期美元差价
1.2148－1.274 129－122点
问：（1）该公司应该如何操作以达到避险的目的，说明过程即可。

（2）届时，该公司可保证收入多少万英镑？（答案保留两位小数）
六、论述与分析题（第1、2、3题每题各10分，第4题14分，共44分）
1．一项案例研究描述了美国两家航空公司对机票定价之间的博弈。

假设每家公司可以对机票收取高价格，也可以收取低价格。

如果一家公司收取100美元，而另一家公司也收取100美元，它就赚到较低的利润；如果另一家公司收到200美元，它就赚到高利润。

另一方面，如果一家公司收取200美元，而另一家公司收取100美元，它赚到极低的利润；如果另一家公司也收到200美元，它就赚到适当的利润。

（1）画出这个博弈的决策方框。

并解释。

（2）什么是这个博弈中的纳什均衡？并解释。

（3）对两家航空公司来说，有比纳什均衡更好的结局吗？如何达到这种结局？如果达到的话，谁将受损失？
2．2003年中国全国人民代表大会第十六次仁义决定设置中国银行业监督管理委员会，承担原由中国人民银行承担的银行业管理职责，而中央银行则从此专司货币政策与实施之责。

试比较前后两种制度安排的利弊。

3．面对大量人民币在港流通，且游离于银行之外给金融监管带来的现状，有业内人士提出在香港设立“人民币离岸交易中心”。

根据这个提议，由央行行长周小川带队的有关人士，包括中国银监会、中国证监会及中国人民银行的官员经过考察磋商后表示，在香港设立人民币离岸中心将是一个长远目标，但现在还有许多问题需要解决，目前并不具备条件在香港设立人民币离岸中心。

请你运用所学知识，对上述观点进行分析。

4．试析关税同盟的静态效应。

七、专业英语（英译中，每题25分，共50分）
1. The Taylor Rule: Could a Robot Replace Alan Greenspan?
Macroeconomist John Taylor of Stanford University Calls for a New Monetary Rule That Would Institutionalize Appropriate Fed Policy Responses to Changes in Real Output and Inflation.
In our discussion of rules versus discretion, “rules” were associated with a passive monetary policy-one in which the monetary rule required that the Fed expand the money supply at a fixed annual rate regardless of the state of the economy. “Discretion” on the other hand, was associated with an active monetary policy in which the Fed changed the interest rate in response to actual or anticipated changes in the economy.
Economist John Taylor has put a new twist on the rule-versus-discretion debate by suggesting a hybrid policy rule that dictates the precise active monetary actions the Fed should take when changes in the economy occur. This so-called Taylor rule combines traditional monetarism, with its emphasis on a monetary rule, and the more mainstream view that active monetary policy is a useful tool for taming
inflation and limiting recession. Unlike the Friedman monetary rule, the Taylor rule holds, for example, that monetary policy should respond to changes in both real GDP and inflation, not simply inflation. The key adjustment instrument is the interest rate, not the money supply.
The Taylor rule has three parts:
●If real GDP rises 1percent above potential GDP, the Fed should raise the Federal
Funds rate (the interbank interest rate of overnight loans), relative to the current inflation rate, by .5 percent.
●If inflation rises by 1percent above its target of 2 percent, then the Fed should
raise the Federal funds rate by. 5 percent relative to the inflation rate.
●When the real GDP is equal to potential GDP and inflation is equal to its target
rate of 2 percent, the Federal funds rate remain at about 4 percent, which would imply a real interest rate of 2 percent.
Taylor has neither suggested nor implied that a robot, programmed with the Taylor rule, should replace Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve System. The Fed’s discretion to override the rule （or “contingency plan for policy”）would be retained, but the Fed would have to explain why its policies diverged from the rule. So the rule would remove the “mystery” associated with monetary policy and increase the Fed’s accountability. Also, says Taylor, if used consistently, the rule would enable market participants to predict Fed behavior, and this would increase Fed credibility and reduce uncertainty.
Critics of the Taylor rule admit it is more in tune with counter cyclical Fed policy than with Friedman’s simple monetary rule. But they see no reason to limit the Fed’s discretion in adjusting interest rates as it sees fit to achieve stabilization and growth. Monetary policy may be more art than science. The critics also point out that the Fed has done a remarkable job of promoting price stability, full employment, and economic growth over the past decade. In view of this success, they ask, “Why saddle the Fed with a highly mechanical monetary rule?”
2. Petition of the Candle makers, 1845
French Economist Frederic Bastiat（1801-1850）Devastated the Proponents of Protectionism by Satirically Extending Their Reasoning to its Logical and Absurd Conclusions.
Petition of the Manufacturers of Candles, Wax lights, Lamps, Candlesticks, Street Lamps, Snuffers, Extinguishers, and of the Producers of Oil Tallow, Rosin, Alcohol, and, Generally, of Everything Connected with Lighting.
TO MESSIEURS THE MEMBERS OF THE CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES.
Gentlemen—You are on the right road. You reject abstract theories, and have little consideration for cheapness and plenty. Your chief care is the interest of producer. You desire to emancipate him from external competition, and reserve the national market for national industry.
We are about to offer you an admirable opportunity of applying your—what shall we call it? No; nothing is more deceptive than theory; your doctrine? your system? your principle? but you dislike doctrines, you abhor systems, and as principles,
you deny that there are any in social economy: we shall say, then, your practice, your practice without theory and without principle.
We are suffering from the intolerable competition of a foreign rival, placed, it would seem, in a condition so far superior to ours for the production of light, that the absolutely inundates our national market with it at a price fabulously reduced. The moment he shows himself, our trade leaves us—all consumers apply to him; and a branch of native industry, having countless ramifications, is all at once rendered completely stagnant. This rival…is no other than the Sun.
What we pray for is, that is may please you to pass a law ordering the shutting up all of windows, skylights, dormer windows, outside and inside shutters, curtains, blinds, bull’s-eyes; in a word, of all openings, holes, chinks, clefts, and fissures, by or through which the light of the sun has been in use to enter houses, to the prejudice of the meritorious manufacturers with which we flatter ourselves we have accommodated our country,—a country which, in gratitude, ought not to abandon us now to a strife so unequal.
If more tallow is consumed, then there must be more oxen and sheep; and consequently, we shall be hold the multiplication of artificial meadows, meat, wool, hides, and ,above all, manure, which is the basis and foundation of all agricultural wealth.
The same remark applies to navigation. Thousands of vessels will proceed to the whale fishery; and, in a short time, we shall possess a navy capable of maintaining the honor of France, and gratifying the patriotic aspirations of your petitioners, the undersigned candle markers and others.
Only have the goodness to reflect, Gentlemen, and you will be convinced that there is perhaps, no Frenchman, from the wealth coal master to humblest vender of Lucifer matches, whose lot will be ameliorated by success of this our petition.。