计量经济学——影响农业产值的因素分析

昆明学院2015届数理统计论文

设计（论文）题目楚雄农业产值的影响因素分析

姓名 xxxxxx

学号 xxxxxxxx

所属系数学系

专业年级数学与应用数学2011级数学<3>班

指导教师 xxxx

截止日期：2013年12月

摘要

本文是根据楚雄州农业的现状，想从计量经济学的角度来验证一下是否存在政府对农业投入不足、以及农村中存在大量的剩余劳动力。根据经济学原理，在模型中引入了三个变量：政府财政对农业的投入、农民自己的投入以及农业的从业人员。从而用经济学中柯布-道格拉斯生产理论初步确定函数+

α

+

=，再用数理统计Eviews软件分析了历年来政府财政LgYβ

LgL

LgK

LgA

对农业的投入、农民自己的投入以及农业的从业人员做相关分析，从所做的散点图象的，它们之间有线性相关性，接着做了线性方程的拟定做了一序列的相关性检验。从所做的回归结果看，楚雄州农村中确实存在正文6.2处问题，根据模型的回归结果得到了一些结论，同时也给出了政策建议。

关键词：农业产出投资居民的投入农业从业人员人数

Abstract

This paper is the present situation of the current conditions are based on agriculture, from the perspective of econometrics to investigate whether there was a government agricultural input is insufficient, and there are a large number of rural surplus labor force. According to the principle of economics, the introduction of the three variables in the model: government financial support to agriculture, farmers and the agricultural own investment professionals. To use economics in the theory of cobb-douglas production function, identified as to use Eviews software analysis of mathematical statistics over the years the government fiscal spending on agriculture, farmers and the agricultural own investment professionals to do correlation analysis, from the scatter image, has a linear correlation between them, and then do a linear equation to formulate a series of correlation test. From the regression results ?

keywords:The number of agricultural workers into agricultural production investment residents

目录

第一章、研究目的和意义.......................................................................................................... - 4 - 第二章、模型设定的经济学原理.............................................................................................. - 5 -

2.1理论依据....................................................................................................................... - 5 -

2.2、给定变量.................................................................................................................... - 5 - 第三章、模型设定...................................................................................................................... - 6 -

3.1、根据经济学理论模型设定........................................................................................ - 6 - 第四章、参数估计...................................................................................................................... - 8 - 将原始模型简化为：.................................................................................................................. - 8 - 第五章、检验及修正.................................................................................................................. - 9 -

5.1．经济意义检验............................................................................................................ - 9 -

5.2．统计推断检验............................................................................................................ - 9 -

5.3．计量经济学检验........................................................................................................ - 9 -

5.3.1多重共线性检验............................................................................................... - 9 -

5.3.5异方差检验..................................................................................................... - 11 -

5.4确定模型..................................................................................................................... - 12 - 第六章、对模型的经济解释及存在的问题............................................................................ - 13 - 6．1．经济解释................................................................................................................ - 13 - 从以上模型经分析可得出：............................................................................................ - 13 - 第七章、对策研究.................................................................................................................... - 15 - 参考文献.................................................................................................................................... - 16 - 谢辞 ........................................................................................................................................... - 17 -