白洋淀的水质管理模型

A programming model for water quality management of

the Baiyangdian Lake in China

Li Lianhuan1, Ma Rui2, Ma Hong3

1.Research Assistant, MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, S&C Academy of Energy and Environmental

Research, N orth China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, C hina

2.Research Assistant, MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, S&C Academy of Energy and Environmental

Research, N orth China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, C hina

3.Research Assistant, MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, S&C Academy of Energy and Environmental

Research, N orth China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, C hina

1. lilianhuan6543@,

2.marui0869@,

3.211273mahong@

Abstract: In the study, an interval-parameter chance-constrained linear programming (ICLP) model is developed for planning water quality under uncertainties. The ICLP model is based on an integration of chance-constrained programming (CCP) and interval linear programming (ILP) techniques. Uncertainties expressed as both probability distribution functions and interval values are incorporated within a general interval-optimization framework. The developed method is applied to the long-term water quality management in the Baiyangdian Lake (BLICLP). Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained, which could be used for generating decision alternatives. The results demonstrated that the developed method not only helped decision makers identify desired policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints of water environmental capacity of pollutants, but also generated land-division and industry-division schemes with a maximized system benefit. The model is a useful tool for analyzing tradeoffs between economic benefits and environmental constraint-violation risks associated with water quality management at the watershed level.

Keyword: Chance-constrained programming; Interval; Optimization; Baiyangdian; Water quality; Uncertainty

白洋淀的水质管理模型

李连欢1，马蕊2，马虹3

1.华北电力大学，北京，中国，102206

2.华北电力大学，北京，中国，102206

3.华北电力大学，北京，中国，102206

1. lilianhuan6543@,

2.marui0869@,

3.211273mahong@

【摘要】本文开发了一个区间参数机会约束线性优化模型（ICLP）规划不确定条件下的水质管理系统。ICLP结合了机会约束规划方法和区间线性规划方法。模型是一个综合的区间优化体系，体系内参数的不确定性表现为概率分布函数和区间数值两种类型。这种方法被应用于白洋淀的一个长期的水质管理系统中（模型可表示为BLICLP），BLICLP可以在不同违反环境约束风险的水平下产生一系列解，即区间解；同时为决策者提供各种决策选择。本文的研究结果表明开发的BLICLP模型不仅能够帮助决策者根据各种经济和水环境污染物容量对系统稳定性的约束选择正确的决策方案，而且能够产生一个使系统综合效益最大化的土地分配方案和行业规模分配方案。本文开发的模型是一个用来权衡经济效益，环境约束违背风险以及在流域级别的水质管理三者关系的有用的分析工具。

【关键词】机会约束规划（CCP）；区间；优化；白洋淀；水质；不确定性

1 引言

白洋淀位于河北省保定市的东南部，地处北京、天津、石家庄三大城市的中心地带，是华北平原最大的淡水湖泊。具有缓洪滞沥、调节气候、涵养水源、保护生物多样性等生态功能，对维持华北地区的生态平衡发挥着巨大的作用。但是白洋淀的水环境在不断恶化，一些白洋淀的入淀河道变成了纯排污河道，代替净水流入白洋淀的是生活污水和工业废水。保定市每年仅经府河进入白洋淀的污水量就达(60-80)×106