IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMFL01Macro.ppt

– Internal balance occurs when real output is at or close to its capacity level and the inflation rate is low and non-accelerating
– External balance occurs when the current account position can be sustained by capital flows on terms compatible with the growth prospects of the economy without resort to restrictions on trade and payments
GDP growth
Real GDP growth
Annual percent change
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6 Advanced economies
Source: Werging market and developing economies
MMF
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MMF
9
Output costs of crises
Output evolution after banking crises (Percent of pre-crisis trend)
On average, output falls steadily below its pre-crisis trend until the third year after the crisis and does not rebound thereafter.
MMF
4
Why do we care about macro stability?
• “In practice, the concept of a stable macroeconomic framework is used to mean a macroeconomic policy environment that is conducive to growth.” Fischer (1993)
MMF
17
Policies for macroeconomic stability
• Fiscal policy • Monetary policy • Exchange rate policy • Financial sector policies
MMF
18
Fiscal policy
• If fiscal policy is the cause of macroeconomic instability, strengthening the fiscal balance will promote internal balance and external balance
• Use policies as stabilizing instruments in response to exogenous shocks
– E.g., countercyclical fiscal policy – Depends on how vulnerable the economy is to shocks
88 banking crises from early 1970s to 2002
Year
Output evolution after currency crises (Percent of pre-crisis trend)
222 currency crises from early 1970s to 2002
MMF
19
Public sector solvency condition
• The present value (PV) of primary surpluses (T-G) and seigniorage revenue (dM) should be at least as large as the government’s outstanding stock of net debt (B): PV { T-G + dM } = B
The financial sector and macroeconomic stability
Macro-prudential policies
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Source: Ramey & Ramey (AER, 1995)
92 countries, 1962-85
Growth = 0.030 – 0.154 Vol (-2.3)
R2 = 0.057
MMF
6
Volatility and growth
79 countries, 1960-2000
Source: Hnatkovska and Loayza (2005)
MMF
Growth takeoff begins in time t=0 on the x-axis. (1950 for Brazil, Japan, Mexico, W. Germany; 1963 for Korea; 1979 for China; 1984 for India)
14
Policies for Macroeconomic Stability
MMF
15
What causes macroeconomic instability?
• Exogenous shocks
– E.g., terms of trade shocks, natural disasters, financial contagion, etc.
• Inappropriate policies
Presenter Clinton Shiells
Outline
What is macroeconomic stability and why do we care? Policies for macroeconomic stability
Fiscal policy Monetary policy Exchange rate policy
➢ CAB = S I = (Sg Ig) + (Sp Ip)
• Key measures:
– Expenditure restraint, expenditure reallocation – Revenue-raising initiatives (tax and non-tax)
• Fiscal reform must be permanent in order to be credible
MMF
12
Output growth volatility
(Rolling 10-year standard deviations of detrended growth)
Source: WEO (Ch. V, Oct. 2007)
MMF
13
Volatility patterns
Source: WEO (Ch. V, Oct. 2007)
11
Output growth volatility
Before the global financial crisis, output growth volatility had been steadily declining from its peak during the 1970s.
Source: WEO (Ch. V, Oct. 2007)
• “Conceptually, macroeconomic instability refers to phenomena that decrease the predictability of the domestic macroeconomic environment, and it is of concern because unpredictability hampers resource-allocation decisions, investment and growth.” Montiel and Servén (2005)
MMF
7
Crisis volatility
(Log scale)
Source: WEO (Ch. IV, Oct. 2009)
MMF
8
Output costs of crises
Level of output
Level of output
Source: Cerra and Saxena (2008)
– E.g., excessively loose fiscal policy
MMF
16
What should policymakers do?
• Remove destabilizing policies that are themselves sources of shocks