管理科学12-决策分析解析

Office building
Warehouse
Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis
$100,000(.4) - 40,000(.6) = 16,000
$30,000(.4) + 10,000(.6) = 18,000
8
Decision Making without Probabilities Equal Likelihood Criterion
In the maximax criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will result in the maximum of maximum payoffs; an optimistic criterion.
Table 12.3 Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximax Decision Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis 5
• Decision-Making Criteria: maximax, maximin, minimax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood
Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis 4
Decision Making without Probabilities Maximax Criterion
Table 12.4 Payoff Table Illustrating a Maximin Decision
Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis
6
Decision Making without Probabilities Minimax Regret Criterion
Regret is the difference between the payoff from the best decision and all other decision payoffs. The decision maker attempts to avoid regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the maximum regret.
Table 12.6 Regret Table Illustrating the Minimax Regret Decision Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis 7
Decision Making without Probabilities Hurwicz Criterion
A state of nature is an actual event that may occur in the future. A payoff table is a means of organizing a decision situation, presenting the payoffs from different decisions given the various states of nature.
The equal likelihood ( or Laplace) criterion multiplies the decision payoff for each state of nature by an equal weight, thus assuming that the states of nature are equally likely to occur. Decision Apartment building Values $50,000(.5) + 30,000(.5) = 40,000
The Hurwicz criterion is a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion. A coefficient of optimism, , is a measure of the decision maker’s optimism. The Hurwicz criterion multiplies the best payoff by and the worst payoff by 1- ., for each decision, and the best result is selected. Decision Apartment building Values $50,000(.4) + 30,000(.6) = 38,000
Decision Making with Probabilities
Decision Analysis with Additional Information Utility
Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis
2
百度文库
Decision Analysis Components of Decision Making
Table 12.1 Payoff Table Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis 3
Decision Analysis Decision Making without Probabilities
Decision situation:
Table 12.2 Payoff Table for the Real Estate Investments
Introduction to Management Science 8th Edition by Bernard W. Taylor III Chapter 12 Decision Analysis
Chapter 12 - Decision Analysis
1
Chapter Topics
Components of Decision Making Decision Making without Probabilities
Decision Making without Probabilities Maximin Criterion
In the maximin criterion the decision maker selects the decision that will reflect the maximum of the minimum payoffs; a pessimistic criterion.