Forecasting and Demand Management, Managing Uncertainty预测和需求管理,管理不确定性共54页
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• Production: scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning • Marketing: sales force allocation, promotions, new production
introduction • Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning • Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
6
Forecasting Components Patterns
Figure 15.1 Forms of Forecast Movement: (a) Trend, (b) Cycle, (c) Seasonal Pattern, (d) Trend with
Seasonal Pattern
7
Components of an Observation
4
Challenge in forecasting inventory
Bullwhip effect
5
Forecasting Methods
• Qualitative: primarily subjective; rely on judgment and opinion • Time Series: use historical demand only
FORECASTING
Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain
• The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain
• Used for both push and pull processes • Examples:
3
Basic Approach to Demand Forecasting
• Understand the objectives of forecasting • Integrate demand planning and forecasting • Identify major factors that influence the demand forecast • Understand and identify customer segments • Determine the appropriate forecasting technique • Establish performance and error measures for the forecast
• Systematic component: Expected value of demand • Random component: The part of the forecast that deviates
from the systematic component • Forecast error: difference between forecast and actual demand
• Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts (forecast horizon is important)
• Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts (National GDP vs. annual performance of a company, annual performance of a department, annual performance of a worker)
• All of these decisions are interrelated
2
Characteristics of Forecasts
• Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error. (100 -1900 units vs. 900 – 1100 units)
8
Forecasting : Taylor
9
Errors in forecasting
Local company A •Item 1: RM 20 •Lead time: 1 week
China company B •Item 1: RM 10 •Lead time: 2 months
Which one would you be your supplier? Cost or responsiveness or both? How?
10
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Measures of Forecast Error
• ERRORS: OVERESTIMATE OR UNDERESTIMATE FORECAST
• Forecast error = Et = Ft - Dt
• Static • Adaptive
• Causal: use the relationship between demand and some other factor to develop forecast
• Simulation
• Imitate consumer choices that give rise to demand • Can combine time series and causal methods
Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Random component (R)
Level (current deseasonalized demand)
Trend (growth or decline in demand)
Seasonality (predictable seasonal fluctuation)
introduction • Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning • Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
6
Forecasting Components Patterns
Figure 15.1 Forms of Forecast Movement: (a) Trend, (b) Cycle, (c) Seasonal Pattern, (d) Trend with
Seasonal Pattern
7
Components of an Observation
4
Challenge in forecasting inventory
Bullwhip effect
5
Forecasting Methods
• Qualitative: primarily subjective; rely on judgment and opinion • Time Series: use historical demand only
FORECASTING
Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain
• The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain
• Used for both push and pull processes • Examples:
3
Basic Approach to Demand Forecasting
• Understand the objectives of forecasting • Integrate demand planning and forecasting • Identify major factors that influence the demand forecast • Understand and identify customer segments • Determine the appropriate forecasting technique • Establish performance and error measures for the forecast
• Systematic component: Expected value of demand • Random component: The part of the forecast that deviates
from the systematic component • Forecast error: difference between forecast and actual demand
• Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts (forecast horizon is important)
• Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts (National GDP vs. annual performance of a company, annual performance of a department, annual performance of a worker)
• All of these decisions are interrelated
2
Characteristics of Forecasts
• Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error. (100 -1900 units vs. 900 – 1100 units)
8
Forecasting : Taylor
9
Errors in forecasting
Local company A •Item 1: RM 20 •Lead time: 1 week
China company B •Item 1: RM 10 •Lead time: 2 months
Which one would you be your supplier? Cost or responsiveness or both? How?
10
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Measures of Forecast Error
• ERRORS: OVERESTIMATE OR UNDERESTIMATE FORECAST
• Forecast error = Et = Ft - Dt
• Static • Adaptive
• Causal: use the relationship between demand and some other factor to develop forecast
• Simulation
• Imitate consumer choices that give rise to demand • Can combine time series and causal methods
Observed demand (O) = Systematic component (S) + Random component (R)
Level (current deseasonalized demand)
Trend (growth or decline in demand)
Seasonality (predictable seasonal fluctuation)