论通货膨胀与经济增长

摘要

为了对当前全球通货膨胀和经济增长放缓的现象及趋势有全面的认识，本文对通货膨胀和经济增长两者之间的关系进行了研究。以分析中外通货膨胀和经济增长两者之间关系的不同理论为切入点，阐述了我国当前的通货膨胀现状，以及政府采取的调控政策后，出现的经济增长下滑的新问题并采取相应的政策调整的过程。应用几种计量方法和模型对经济增长率和通货膨胀率这两个指标关系进行测度和检验和实证研究，并分析和归纳了所得到的实证结果。最后，结合当前的经济形势，给出了经济政策建议。通货膨胀是一项世界性共同关心的经济问题,也是一个社会问题,不论是市场经济发达国家,还是经济处于落后和转轨阶段的发展中国家都不例外。自80年代中期以来,与经济持续高度发展相关联,我国开始逐步进入高通货膨胀的国家行列。遏制通货膨胀和开展对它内在规律的研究已经刻不容缓地成为我们面前的一项艰巨而紧迫的任务。课题通过对通货膨胀的现状、产生原因、社会后果、经济效应的分析,指出我国通货膨胀除受社会需求拉动、成本推进原因外,还同中国投资建设大、资源缺乏、人口众多、社会经济结构不合理这一特殊社会问题有关。所以我国遏制通货膨胀的关键点在于要把积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策结合起来，把经济手段、行政手段和法律手段结合起来，在控制通货膨胀的同时,又不遏制经济增长和就业的增加,保持高经济增长和低通货膨胀的态势，保证国民经济持续、有效、健康的发展。

关键词：通货膨胀；经济效应；宏观经济控制；市场主体行为

ABSTRACT

The inflation is the economic problem which worldwide basis cared about together, also is a social question, no matter is the market economy developed country, the economy is in backwardness and the switcher stage developing nation is not all exceptional. Since the 80's intermediate stages, has continued with the economy to develop highly is connected, our country starts to enter the high inflation gradually the national ranks. The containment inflation and the development already urgently became in front of us to its inherent laws research an item arduous and the urgent duty. This article through to the inflation present situation, has the reason, the social consequence, the economical effect analysis. pointed out our country inflation except receives social demand drawing outside the cost advancement reason, but also invests with China constructs, the resources in a big way lacks, large population, the socio-economic structures unreasonable this special society question concerns. Therefore our country contains the inflation the key point to lie in must unifies the positive financial policy and the steady monetary policy, the economical method、the administrative method and the legal method unifies, during control inflation, does not contain the economical growth and the employment increase, maintains the high economical growth and the low inflation situation, guarantees the national economy continually, effectively, the health development.

Keyword: The inflation; Economical effect; Macroscopic economy controls ; The market main body behavior

目录

摘要 (Ⅰ)

Abstract (Ⅱ)

前言 (1)

一、通货膨胀的概述 (1)

（一）我国通货膨胀的界定 (1)

（二）我国度量通货膨胀指标的选择 (2)

（三）我国通货膨胀发生的原因 (2)

二、对我国通货膨胀的分析 (3)

（一）我国通货膨胀的发展历程 (3)

（二）我国通货膨胀形成的原因及特点 (4)

三、通货膨胀对我国经济的影响 (6)

（一）通货膨胀对我国社会经济生活的影响 (6)

1．通货膨胀对债权人和债务人的影响 (6)

2．通货膨胀对居民收入的影响 (7)

3．通货膨胀对居民消费的影响 (7)

（二）通货膨胀对我国金融市场的影响 (7)

1．通货膨胀对商业银行业的影响 (7)

2．通货膨胀对债券市场的影响 (7)

3．通货膨胀对外汇市场的影响 (8)

4．通货膨胀对股票市场的影响 (8)

（三）通货膨胀对我国经济增长的影响 (8)

1．通货膨胀对储蓄和投资的影响 (8)

2．通货膨胀对经济结构和产业结构的影响 (9)

（四）通货膨胀的政治效应带来的经济影响 (9)

1．通货膨胀导致社会供求失衡 (9)