5-节能量测量与验证的新动向 William C. Miller

背景：美国追求多层次 的能效项目
• 加州州政府的政策方向与任务: 主要是针 对电力公司和其他项目管理方的能效项 目 – 最重要的因素: 每年大约60-80亿美 元 – 多样的形式: 项目组合标准、针对电 力公司的要求、任务等 – 实施项目后确认节能量/效果 美国联邦政府和加州的家电与建筑节能 标准 – 自愿性 (例如“能源之星”) – 强制性 (例如美国家电能效标准) – 采取能效措施前进行分析 美国联邦政府和加州的税收政策 – 联邦政府或加州政府提供免税或税 收抵扣优惠 – 采取能效措施前进行分析
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Energy Efficiency Savings Measurement History (2)
• Evaluation begins simply and adds complexity over time – Earliest methods often verified transactions multiplied by a unit engineering savings estimate – Methods adapted from social science, engineering quickly added • statistical analysis of customer monthly bills (typically regression analysis) • Simple or complex engineering calculations (e.g. “EnergyPlus”) • Many combinations of these basic approaches applied across multiple programs
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Context: US Pursues Energy Efficiency At Multiple Levels (2)
Evaluation and savings measurement has focused on the first area •Because the government has intervened in private transactions evaluation is used to assess prudency, effectiveness (resource implications), program design and improvement •Prudency and effectiveness require savings measurement •Key question is what would have happened without government’s intervention
The Policy Challenge: •Widely believed that energy efficiency can up-scale 5x or 10x •Meeting future energy challenges may require this expansion •Can private resources “be brought to the table”
— 在报告中说明气候，能源用途， 所用技术和方法 — 与“标准”假设不一致 向标准测量方法靠近的挑战 — 没有法律允许美国政府制定测量 标准 — 尝试自愿程序审核目前的评估方 法以及对可接受的方法制定合理 的指南 — 检查评估报告确保输入数据能使 可解释的成果差异显而易见 — 评估结果可用来进行州际比较并为未 来需求打下基础
在关键领域人们怀疑能效项目的成本 效益
政策方面的挑战: •普遍认为能效可提高5倍到10倍 •为克服未来的能源问题可能需要这种 扩张 •私营企业的资源能否提到议事日程
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Towards Solutions: Three Areas Of Focus
• Resolving Multiple unexplainable differences in savings results – Savings expected to vary by climate, equipment use, etc. – Multiple methods produced multiple savings results – Introducing energy efficiency into energy policy more difficult Moving out of programs: Energy efficiency measurement as part of (private) management practice (“Efficiency as a way of life”) – ISO 50001 – Superior Energy Performance (SEP) Do private resource want/need the same savings measurements as governments? •
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Challenges in the current US Approach to Determining Energy Efficiency Savings
Recap: •Multiple methods used to measure savings result in multiple measurements of the same phenomenon •Savings determined 12-18 months after program implemented •Evaluations require extensive, expensive data acquisition
美国现有确认节能量方法的 一些问题
回顾: •采用多种节能量测量方法导致相同问 题的多次测量 •项目实施12到18个月后才能够确认节 能量 •项目评价需要全面、成本高的数据收 集
Skepticism in key area about energy efficiencies effectiveness
June 3, 2011 Beijing, China 2011年6月3日 中国 北京
William C. Miller, Ph.D. SENTECH/SRA International Consultant to the US DOE 美国能源部顾问
Context: US Pursues Energy Efficiency At Multiple Levels
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Tackling Multiple Savings Results
• The US government has no mandate to set energy efficiency measurement standards: persuasion, There are explainable and unexplainable differences in savings results
节能项目节能量测量 发展过程
• 1970年代全世界的能源价格大幅 上涨引起政府干预提高能效 • 导致在全国与各地方广泛的政府 与电力公司实施的能效项目 – 针对“所有” 用户: 单户/多户 家庭住宅用户、商业、工业、 农业、政府机构 – 尝试了“所有” 政府可干预的 措施: 信息: 宣传进行深度审 计、补贴(包括用户及制造 商)、融资等
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建立解决方案: 三个重点领域
解决节能量测量结果存在多种无法 解释的差距问题 – 在不同气候、使用不同设备等 在不同条件下节能量不同 – 采用多种方法导致不同的节能 量测量结果 – 增加能效与能源政策相结合的 难度 从项目中去除: 能效措施融入到 （私营）管理实践 (“能效作为一种 生活方式”) – ISO 50001 – 高级能效性能(SEP) 私营单位是否愿意/需要采取与政 府一样的措施？
• Government intervention to raise efficiency was a response to the dramatic rise in world energy prices in the 1970’s Led to wide array of government and utility programs at the state or local level – “All” customers targeted: residential single and multifamily, commercial, industrial, agricultural, government buildings – “All” interventions tried: information: advertising to to deep audits, rebates (customer to manufacturer), financing, etc.
节能项目节能量测量 发展过程 (2)
• 项目评估从简单开始并逐步增加复 杂性 – 最早的方法通常是验证后的交 易量乘以单位工程节能量估算 – 方法基于社会科学改编，不久 使用工程学方法来补充 • 对用户的每月账单进行统计 分析(通常使用回归分析) • 简单或复杂的工程计算方法 (例如“EnergyPlus”) • 这些基本方法的多样组合应 用于不同项目
• State government direction or mandates: main focus on programs offered by utilities or other energy efficiency program administrators – The most significant approach: about $6-8 billion US/year – Takes various forms: portfolio standards, requirements on utilities, mandates, etc. – Savings/effects determined after program implemented US and state appliance or building standards – Voluntary (e.g. “Energy star”) – Mandatory (e.g. US appliance standards – Analyzed prior to adoption Us and state tax policy – US or a state provides tax exemption or credit – Analyzed prior to adoption
背景：美国追求多层次 的能效项目 (2)
项目评价和节能量测量主要针对 第一个方面 •因为政府干预私营企业交易， 项目评价涉及到谨慎性原则、成 本效益(考虑到资源)、项目设计 与改进问题 •为了评价谨慎性原则是否遵 守，成本效益如何，需要测量节 能量 •关键问题是如果政府不参与的 话会怎么样
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Energy Efficiency Savings Measurement History
Technical Seminar on Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation 节能项目评价研讨会
A Personal View on Emerging Directions in Evaluation, Measurement and Verification 节能量测量与验证的新动向
– – Clarify weather, usage, technical and methodological assumptions in reporting Reconciliation against “standard” assumptions •
跟踪多种节能成果
• • 美国政府无权强制设定能效测量标准：说 服争取 产生节能成果差异原因中有可解释和不能 解释的原因