庞皓计量经济学课后答案第六章
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残差的变动有系统模式,连续为正和连续为负,表明残差序列存在一阶正自相关。
统计学2班
第五次作业 1、⑴ Y t
i
2
X 2
t
Dependent Vari able: ¥ Metriod: Least Squares
Date: 51/05/14 Time : 22:09 Sample: i960 -1995
Included otiservations: 36
Variable Go efficient Std Error t-Statistic
Prob.
C -9 J128745 25C4347 -3.764951 0.00C6
X
0.9358S5 0 007467
125 3411
o.ooco
R^squared
0 997B41 Mean dependent var 289 9444 Adjusted R'&quared 0 997777 S D dependent 炖 95 82125 S E af re gression 4 S178S2 Akaike info criterion 5 907903 S UIT squared resid 693 97S7 Schwarz crite rio n 5.995&81 Log likelihood -104 3423 l-iannan-CHJinn criter. 5.938&13 F-statistic
1&710 39
DurDin-Watson stat
0.523428
ProbCF-slalistic)
0.000000
Y? 9.428745 0.935866X 2
T
(-3.764951 ) (125.3411 )
2
R 0.997841
F=15710.39 DW=0.523428
⑵该回归方程可决系数高,回归系数均显著。对样本量为
36,一个解释变量的模型,
5%
的显著性水平下,查 DW 统计表可知,d L 1.411 d u 1.525,模型中DW< d L ,显然模 型中存在自相关。从残差图中也可看出。 残差图如下
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⑶采用广义差分法: 对e 进行滞后一期的自回归 DependentVarlatle. E Metnad. Least Squares
Datsi 4 1 JO6^1 i Tim&:
Samp 1 e 宫ted ;: *96* 1995
included observations: 35 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient
Std Error
t-Statlstic
Prob.
ec-i>
0.723550
O 1 ISC7&
0. 1 38995
0.0000
R-s 口口 目
0.525100
Mean dependent var -0.157079
Adjusted w-&quareo C.&251U0
s u. aependeni \zsr 4 41 5&U/
S.E. of regression 3 042053
Akai Ke info ente rion 5 091027 Sum squared r&sid 314.80B5 Schwarz crilerl on 5.135065 Leg 1 i ke 1 i h a o d -88.10347 Hannan-Quinn criter.
5.105967
Durbin-,A ,'alscin stat 2 024396
得回归方程? o.72855e 1,由此可知?
0.72855,对原模型进行广义差分,得广义差
分模型:Y t 0.72855^ 1 1(1
0.72855)
2(X t 0.72855X t 1) t
对广义差分方程进行回归
D 总口entient Variable: ¥-0.723&5"Y(-1) Method: Least Squares
Date : 11/0&/14 Time : 22:27
Sample Cadjusted): 1961 1995
Included otjservatiors: 35 after adjustments
Variable G o efU ci e nt Std 匚「no 「 t-Statistic Prob. C
-3.783059 1 B70964
-2.02^984
0,0513 X-0.72855*X{-1> 0 948406 0 018S05 50,16820
0,0030 R-squared
0 987D5S Mean dep endent var 05.40203 Adjusted R-s 口 O 986666 S,D dependent var
25.56943 S.E. of regression 3068065 info criterion
5.13&417 Sum squared resid 310 6298 Schwarz criterion 5 224294 Log liksliticod -S7 86979 Hannan-Qiiinn criter 5166097 F- stati stic
2516 B48 Durbin-Wats on sta1
2 097157
Prob(F-stati stic)
O 000000
YT
3.783059 0.948406X ;
(-2.021984
)( 50.16820
)
由于使用广义差分数据,样本容量减少了一个,为
35个。在显著性水平 5%下。查得
d L 1.402 d u 1.519,模型中 DW=2.097157> d u 1.519,说明在 5% 显著性水平
下广义差分模型中已无自相关。得最终模型:
Y? 13.9365 0.948406X 2
2
R 0.987058 F=2516.848
DW=2.097157
其中 Y * Y t 0.72855Y 1 X ; X t 0.72855X t 1
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残差的变动有系统模式,连续为正和连续为负,表明残差序列存在一阶正自相关。
2、⑴X 1 :人均收入/元 丫1:人均生活消费支出/元 X 3 :商品零售物价指数/%
X 2 :人均实际收入/元 丫2 :人均实际支出/元
建立居民收入-消费模型为:丫 1 2
X t t
采用根据物价指数调整后的数据。即 X 2 :人均实际收入/元 丫2 :人均实际支出/元
作最小二乘回归如下: Dependent Variable: Y2
M&inoa Least Squares Date: 1ircaH4 Time: 21 42 Sample: 1
Included observations : 19
Variable CoefTicient St J. Error t-Statislic 尸「OtK
C
79.93004 12.3G919 6.445390 0 0000
X2
0.690498 0 012877
53 62068
o aooo
R-s^uar&ci
0.994122 Mean dependent 700 2747 Adjusted R-s qua red 0.999776 S.D. dependent war 246 44S1
S.E. of regressiori ^19.44245 Akaike info crit&rian S.S72095
Swrn squared resiti 6426.149 Schwarz criterion
3.971510 Log liKelihaod ■82 2S4S0 Hannan-Quinn crite 匚 S 868920 F-statistic
2875.178 Durbin-Watson stat
□ 574563
Pro t?(F-statistic)
o.oaoooo
丫? 79.93004 0.690488X t
(6.446390 )( 53.62068 )
2
R 0.994122
DW=0.574663
N=19.在显著性水平5%下查表得 d L 1.180 d u 1.401模型中DW< d L ,显然模型中存
在自相关。从残差图中也可看出。
Residual ------- A dual ------- Fitled
⑵采用广义差分法:对e 进行滞后一期的自回归 Dependent Varia&l&r 匚 Mettiod: Least Sou ares Date Time : 21:52 Sample (adjust&d) 2 13
IndtJded cbssr^atians' 18 3fler adjuslments
Variable Coefficierit St (J Error t-Statistic Prob. EM)
□557352 O.1T7620
3.700759
o oo^ie Ft-s au a re d
□ 440747 M eani dependent var 1 717433 Adjusted R-s cqu 曰「Ed 0 440747 S. D. de pendeirt \/ar 1 7.85134 S.E. of 「电口「ession 1 3.3^930 Akaike info criterion 9 07^833 Sum squarod r 3029 692 Schwa nzi criterion 312+29S Log likelihood
-71.57349 Hannan-Quinn enter.
S 031653
Durbin-Watson stat
1 S3457S
得回归方程e t 0.6573520 1,由此可知? 0.657352,对原模型进行广义差分,得广义
差分模型:Y t 0.657352Y t 1
1(1 0.657352)
2(X t 0.657352X t 1) t
Dependent VariaDle : Y2-0.657352"Y2(-1) Method. Least Squares
Date: 11/06/14 Time : 21:57 Sample (adjusted): 2 19
included observations. IS after adjustments
vansDie coerri cient st a. trrer t-s (atis.tic Hrob. C
35.977B1 S.103543 4.439737 0 0004 X2-0.657352*X2C-1> 0 S5S695 0 020642
32.39512
0 0000 R-squared
0 934933 Mean dependent *白「 27S.1002 Adjusted R square d 0.33-404 斗 S.C des 口endentvar 1 05.1791 S.E. ot regression 13.2S570 AKaike irfc criterion 8 115693 Sum squared 2S24158 Schwarz : criterion 8 214623 Log likelihood *71.04124 Hannan-Quinn enter 8129334 F-slalistic
1049 444 Durbln-^stson stat
1 330746
Prot^F-statistlc)
0.000000
Y *
35.97761 0.668695X ;
(4.439737 )( 32.39512
)
由于使用广义差分数据,样本容量减少了一个,为
18个。在显著性水平 5%下。查得
d L 1.158 d u 1.391,模型中 DW=1.830746> d U 1.391,说明在 5% 显著性水平
下广义差分模型中已无自相关。得最终模型:
Y? 108.594 0.668695X 2
⑶北京市人均实际收入增加
1元时,平均说来人均实际生活消费支出将增加
2
R 0.984983 F=1049.444
DW=1.830746
其中 Y * Y t 0.657352Y t 1
X ; X t 0.657352 X t 1
0.669 兀。
4、⑴建立日本工薪家庭收入-消费模型为:Y i 2X2 t
Deperdent Variable: y
Meltiod: Least Squares
Date: T1/06/14 Time: 22.23
Sample: 1970 1994
Included observations: 25
Variable Coefficienl Std Error i-Statistic Pro b.
C 50 974S4 9 291058 5.1260730 COOC
X0,637437 □ 02124230.008460.000c
R 占口LI 日「900.975095 Mean dependent var298.2000 Adjusts口R>営口u耳0.974012 S.D. dependentvar 27.97320 S.F. of regression 4.509491 AKaike Info criterion 5 926354 Sum squared resid467.7167Schwam criterion 6 024374 Log likelihood -72.0S58CJ Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.953909
F-statistic DurbinAVatson stat0.352762 P ro b(F-stall sti c} o.oooaoo
Y? 50.87454 0.637437X2
T ( 6.136073 )( 30.00846 )
2
R 0.975095 F=900.5078 DW=0.352762
⑵该回归方程可决系数高,回归系数均显著。对样本量为25,一个解释变量的模型,5%的显著性水平下,查DW统计表可知,d L 1.288 d u 1.454,模型中DW< d L,显然模
型中存在自相关。从残差图中也可看出。残差图如下
残差的变动有系统模式,连续为正和连续为负,表明残差序列存在一阶正自相关。
⑶采用广义差分法:对e 进行滞后一期的自回归 Dependent Vari able: E Method. I_E 曰旦ITE A
Date: 1 1/06/14 Time 22:27
Sam 口I 总 l 已口」LI 右ted]: 19 71 1994-
Iriduded observations : 24- after adjustments
V?3 ristple
Coefficient Otd. C-rTOr t-Statistic PrOb.
0.ti
u.uuuo R-squared
Q.S5S76D Mean dependent var 0129399 Adjusted! Rl-sqiuiarecl 0.SSQ7S0 S.D. d^p^nd^nt var ^I46O7Q7 S.E. of regression
5.601939 Aka ike info crrterion
4 791^03
Sum SL|LJdiecJ 「已 Bit! 1 55.7 1 7 9 S (z-l iwa i£L izr 1 te r i o rii 斗.a-402Si5
Log likelihood
-56.49443 Hannan-Ou inn criter.
4 S04225
Durbln-',Vstson sial
1.899475
得回归方程? 0.850961? !,由此可知? 0.850961,对原模型进行广义差分,得广义
差分模型:Y t 0.850961Y t1
,
(1 0.850961) 2(X t 0.850961X t ,) t
对广义差分方程进行回归
Dependent Variable: Y-0 S509G1*YM> I.Square
Oslo: 11/00-14 Timo: 22:20 Sample (odjU3ted}i 1071 1904 Inclu Oect is. 24 九n 吐r ddjustmeril^
Variaoie Coefficient Sta. Error t-StaTistic Prob. C
13.97334 4.7S9436 2,917533
0 0080 X-O 350961*XMJ
□ 53&125 □ .□74793
0 0000 R-squared
O 69941T Mean dependent var
48 0 37 62
Adjusted R-squared O 6BS754
S O, d ep eindent: var
4L.&5Oe3O
S-E- of regression
.^kaiKe info criterion
4.79061 6
Sumi squainsd resid
1 43. 1 S33 3匚hiwarzi criterion
^.638787 Log liK^iincod /ay Hannan-ctuinn criter.
斗 LJ &6E51 F-starn Stic 51.1 9 11U Uurtnn-,.'V 白 tson stat
2 S77660
Prob(F-statlstic)
o oooooa
Y *
13.97334 0.535125X ;
(2.917533 )( 7.154796 )
由于使用广义差分数据,样本容量减少了一个,为 24个。在显著性水平 5%下。查得
d L 1.273 d u 1.446,模型中 DW=2.377660>
d U 1.446,说明在 5% 显著性水平
下广义差分模型中已无自相关。得最终模型:
Y?* 93.756 0.535125X ;
⑶模型说明日本工薪居民收入每增加
1元,平均说来消费增加 0.54元。
2
R 0.699417 F=51.19110
DW=2.377660
其中 Y * Y t 0.850961Y t 1
X t * X t 0.850961 X t 1
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残差的变动有系统模式,连续为正和连续为负,表明残差序列存在一阶正自相关。
5、Y :地区生产总值
X :固定资产投资额
⑴对模型:InY t
1
2
lnX t
t 进行回归如下:
Dependent VariaBle. LNY Method : Least Squares Date: 11/10/14 Time: 10:53
Sample: 1 990 2000 inGiud&d Qt^ser^ationa: 21
Variable Coe rnui 晋 nt
Std. Error t-Statistic Prot>. c 2.171041 0.241025 9,007529 0.0000
LMX
0 661090 0.038897 24 46123
o.oooa
R-squared
0 Q69199 Mean dependent 'jar
9 039207 Adjusted R-squared
0 S67578 S.D. dependent var
0.565+36 8 E. of reg res si on 0101822 Aka ike infc criterion -1.640785 Sum squared resid 01969S7 Schwann criterion
^.541307 Log liKeliriood 19.22325 Hannan-Quinn criter.
-1 619196
F-statistic
597.S626 DurbinAVatson stal
1 159780
Prob (F-nstati stic)
0 COOOOO
InY? 2.171041 0.951090l nX t
T
(9.007529 )(24.45123 )
R 2
0.969199
DW=1.159788
对样本量为21,一个解释变量的模型,
5%的显著性水平下,查 DW 统计表可知,
d L 1.221 d u 1.420,模型中DW< d L ,显然模型中存在自相关。
由残差图也可看出: