曼昆宏观经济学第六版课件9
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CHAPTER
9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
MACROECONOMICS
SIXTH EDITION
N. GREGORY MANKIW
In this chapter, you will learn…
§ facts about the business cycle § how the short run differs from the long run § an introduction to aggregate demand § an introduction to aggregate supply in the short
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 1
Facts about the business cycle
§ GDP growth averages 3–3.5 percent per year over
the long run with large fluctuations in the short run.
§ shows how the price level and aggregate output
are determined
§ shows how the economy’s behavior is different
in the short run and long run
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
∆Y = 3.5 − 2 ∆u Y
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
§ Published monthly by the Conference Board. § Aims to forecast changes in economic activity
6-9 months into the future.
§ Consumption and investment fluctuate with GDP,
but consumption tends to be less volatile and investment more volatile than GDP.
§ Unemployment rises during recessions and falls
slide 13
Aggregate demand
§ The aggregate demand curve shows the
relationship between the price level and the quantity of output demanded.
§ For this chapter’s intro to the AD/AS model,
Many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined level. The economy behaves much differently when prices are sticky.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Average workweek in manufacturing Initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance New orders for consumer goods and materials New orders, nondefense capital goods Vendor performance New building permits issued Index of stock prices M2 Yield spread (10-year minus 3-month) on Treasuries Index of consumer expectations
§ Used in planning by businesses and govt,
despite not being a perfect predictor.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 7
Components of the LEI index § § § § § § § § § §
Growth rates of real GDP, consumption, investment
Percent 40 change from 4 30 quarters earlier 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1970
Investment growth rate
Real GDP growth rate
during expansions.
§ Okun’s Law: the negative relationship between
GDP and unemployment.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 2
Growth rates of real GDP, consumption
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 14
The Quantity Equation as Aggregate Demand
§ From Chapter 4, recall the quantity equation
MV = PY
§ For given values of M and V,
AD2 AD1
Y
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 17
Aggregate supply in the long run
§ Recall from Chapter 3:
In the long run, output is determined by factor supplies and technology
Consumption growth rate
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Unemployment
Percent 12 of labor force 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Okun’s Law
Percentage 10 change in real GDP 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Change in unemployment rate 2001 1991 1982 1987 1975 1951 1984 2003 1966
slide 11
When prices are sticky…
…output and employment also depend on demand, which is affected by § fiscal policy (G and T ) § monetary policy (M ) § other factors, like exogenous changes in C or I.
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 8
CHAPTER 9
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
160 140
1996 = 100
Source: Conference Board
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Time horizons in macroeconomics
§ Long run:
Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply or demand.
§ Short run:
this equation implies an inverse relationship between P and Y :
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 15
The downward-sloping AD curve
An increase in the An increase in the price level causes price level causes a fall in real money a fall in real money balances (M/P ), balances (M/P ), causing a causing a decrease in the decrease in the demand for goods demand for goods & services. & services.
P
AD
Y
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 16
Shifting the AD curve
P
An increase in An increase in the money supply the money supply shifts the AD shifts the AD curve to the right. curve to the right.
(C, I, G ) only affect prices, not quantities.
§ Assumes complete price flexibility. § Applies to the long run.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Percent 10 change from 4 8 quarters earlier 6
Real GDP growth rate Consumption growth rate
Average 4 growth rate 2
0 -2 -4 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 12
The model of aggregate demand and supply
§ the paradigm most mainstream economists
and policymakers use to think about economic fluctuations and policies to stabilize the economy
we use a simple theory of aggregate demand based on the quantity theory of money.
§ Chapters 10-12 develop the tΒιβλιοθήκη Baidueory of aggregate
demand in more detail.
slide 10
Recap of classical macro theory
(Chaps. 3-8)
§ Output is determined by the supply side:
§ supplies of capital, labor § technology.
§ Changes in demand for goods & services
run and long run
§ how the model of aggregate demand and
aggregate supply can be used to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of “shocks.”
CHAPTER 9
Y = F (K , L )
Y is the full-employment or natural level of output, the level of output at which the economy’s resources are fully employed.
9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
MACROECONOMICS
SIXTH EDITION
N. GREGORY MANKIW
In this chapter, you will learn…
§ facts about the business cycle § how the short run differs from the long run § an introduction to aggregate demand § an introduction to aggregate supply in the short
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 1
Facts about the business cycle
§ GDP growth averages 3–3.5 percent per year over
the long run with large fluctuations in the short run.
§ shows how the price level and aggregate output
are determined
§ shows how the economy’s behavior is different
in the short run and long run
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
∆Y = 3.5 − 2 ∆u Y
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
§ Published monthly by the Conference Board. § Aims to forecast changes in economic activity
6-9 months into the future.
§ Consumption and investment fluctuate with GDP,
but consumption tends to be less volatile and investment more volatile than GDP.
§ Unemployment rises during recessions and falls
slide 13
Aggregate demand
§ The aggregate demand curve shows the
relationship between the price level and the quantity of output demanded.
§ For this chapter’s intro to the AD/AS model,
Many prices are “sticky” at some predetermined level. The economy behaves much differently when prices are sticky.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Average workweek in manufacturing Initial weekly claims for unemployment insurance New orders for consumer goods and materials New orders, nondefense capital goods Vendor performance New building permits issued Index of stock prices M2 Yield spread (10-year minus 3-month) on Treasuries Index of consumer expectations
§ Used in planning by businesses and govt,
despite not being a perfect predictor.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 7
Components of the LEI index § § § § § § § § § §
Growth rates of real GDP, consumption, investment
Percent 40 change from 4 30 quarters earlier 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1970
Investment growth rate
Real GDP growth rate
during expansions.
§ Okun’s Law: the negative relationship between
GDP and unemployment.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 2
Growth rates of real GDP, consumption
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 14
The Quantity Equation as Aggregate Demand
§ From Chapter 4, recall the quantity equation
MV = PY
§ For given values of M and V,
AD2 AD1
Y
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 17
Aggregate supply in the long run
§ Recall from Chapter 3:
In the long run, output is determined by factor supplies and technology
Consumption growth rate
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Unemployment
Percent 12 of labor force 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Okun’s Law
Percentage 10 change in real GDP 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Change in unemployment rate 2001 1991 1982 1987 1975 1951 1984 2003 1966
slide 11
When prices are sticky…
…output and employment also depend on demand, which is affected by § fiscal policy (G and T ) § monetary policy (M ) § other factors, like exogenous changes in C or I.
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 8
CHAPTER 9
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
160 140
1996 = 100
Source: Conference Board
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Time horizons in macroeconomics
§ Long run:
Prices are flexible, respond to changes in supply or demand.
§ Short run:
this equation implies an inverse relationship between P and Y :
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 15
The downward-sloping AD curve
An increase in the An increase in the price level causes price level causes a fall in real money a fall in real money balances (M/P ), balances (M/P ), causing a causing a decrease in the decrease in the demand for goods demand for goods & services. & services.
P
AD
Y
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 16
Shifting the AD curve
P
An increase in An increase in the money supply the money supply shifts the AD shifts the AD curve to the right. curve to the right.
(C, I, G ) only affect prices, not quantities.
§ Assumes complete price flexibility. § Applies to the long run.
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
Percent 10 change from 4 8 quarters earlier 6
Real GDP growth rate Consumption growth rate
Average 4 growth rate 2
0 -2 -4 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
CHAPTER 9
Introduction to Economic Fluctuations
slide 12
The model of aggregate demand and supply
§ the paradigm most mainstream economists
and policymakers use to think about economic fluctuations and policies to stabilize the economy
we use a simple theory of aggregate demand based on the quantity theory of money.
§ Chapters 10-12 develop the tΒιβλιοθήκη Baidueory of aggregate
demand in more detail.
slide 10
Recap of classical macro theory
(Chaps. 3-8)
§ Output is determined by the supply side:
§ supplies of capital, labor § technology.
§ Changes in demand for goods & services
run and long run
§ how the model of aggregate demand and
aggregate supply can be used to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of “shocks.”
CHAPTER 9
Y = F (K , L )
Y is the full-employment or natural level of output, the level of output at which the economy’s resources are fully employed.