光伏平价上网路线图

DEVELOPMENT

Executive Summary

CHINA ROADMAP OF PHOTOVOLTAICS DEVELOPMENT-

A PATHWAY TO GRID PARITY Executive Summary

02

CHINA ROADMAP OF PHOTOVOLTAICS DEVELOPMENT-A PATHWAY TO GRID PARITY

Executive Summary

Introduction

Countries are vigorously promoting renewable energy with the purpose of ensuring energy security and economic development, and tackling climate change. As a form of renewable energy, solar power is safe, clean, and widely available. The development and utilization of solar energy has the potential to satisfy global energy demands and to reduce dependence on traditional fossil fuels, and many countries have placed solar energy development and utilization as a prominent issue.

High costs, among other factors, have been the main obstacle to widespread commercial application of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology. Globally, the contribution of solar PV to total energy consumption is still quite small. In recent years, however, technology advancements and cost

reductions have led to fast growth in the solar PV industry and have caused many governments to realize that the solar PV industry has the potential to occupy a large space in energy development. Solar PV plays a significant role in the energy supply structure in Germany, Italy and Spain. In addition, capacity added in solar PV

surpassed capacity added in wind power generation in the EU-27 for the first time in 2010. These industry developments

highlight the potential for solar PV power to became an important alternative energy source and indicate that wide scale

application of solar PV has already begun worldwide.

China has abundant solar energy resources, which provides a clear advantage for solar energy development. In 2010, China had

about 45 billion square-meters of

construction area, including at least 5 billion square meters of roofing and south-facing walls, of which 20 percent could be used to install about 100 GW of BIPV systems. Additionally, China has about 1.2 million square kilometers of desert area, including the Gobi Desert. Utilizing only 5 percent of the of Gobi Desert has the resource capacity to accommodate over 5,000 GW of large solar power plants, which could produce 6,000 TWh of solar electricity annually, the equivalent of 1.5x the total power generation in United States in 2010 or China’s

forecasted power generation capacity in 2015.

With the decreasing prices for PV wafers, cells and modules; improvements to cell conversion efficiency; and the expansion of the global PV market, the cost of

photovoltaic products has been rapidly trending downward. Additionally,

photovoltaic technology is becoming more mature; the conversion efficiency of

crystalline silicon (c-Si) cells is increasing 0.4 - 0.5 percent annually; and the average cost of polysilicon materials is under $30/kg, with industry leaders producing polysilicon under $20/kg. In 2010, the cost of PV

components from industry leaders reduced to $1 - 1.2 per Wp, and average prices dropped under $2 per Wp. The cost of

thin-film cells had already reduced to $0.75 per Wp, and selling prices reduced to $1 per Wp. PV technology advancements are

consistently being made and the PV industry is constantly expanding, which provides a basis for the PV industry to achieve gird parity.