Desktop中信证券与海通证券价值评估比较案例分析

华中科技大学

硕士学位论文

中信证券与海通证券价值评估比较案例分析

姓名：徐永涛

申请学位级别：硕士

专业：工商管理

指导教师：龚朴

20081030

摘要

我国资本市场经过二十多年的发展，已经成为国民经济的重要组成部分，增强

了经济发展的活力。证券公司是资本市场重要的中介机构，在我国资本市场的培育

和发展过程中发挥了十分重要的作用，具有良好的发展前景。要想在证券行业中捕

捉投资机会，正确认识证券公司的内在价值，并通过比较选择合适的投资对象显得

十分重要。

本文选取中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称“中信证券”）和海通证券股份有

限公司（以下简称“海通证券”）作为研究对象。中信证券与海通证券作为以证券

经纪、承销和证券投资为主营业务的证券行业上市公司,其公司价值的评价有着不同

于一般行业上市公司的特点。

本文采用自上而下的方法对比分析了这两家证券公司的内在价值和竞争力状

况。首先，简要介绍了两公司所处的证券行业的发展背景、状况和趋势，通过对宏

观经济以及中国证券行业现状的判断指出证券公司所面临的机会和风险；其次，主

要采用定量分析的手段，利用财务分析模型、股利折现模型和经济增加值模型，全

面揭示了这两家同行业上市公司的财务状况和内在价值；最后，鉴于中信证券近年

财务健康状况以及股利折现估值、经济增加值估值结果均明显好于海通证券，得出

中信证券比海通证券更具投资价值的结论。

全文通过分析得出结论，除了影响证券公司核心竞争力三要素（具备战略眼光

的管理人才和执行力强的业务骨干、有雄厚和可持续增强的资本金来源、培育和抢

占独特和排他性的资源优势）以外，投入资本收益率( ROI C)与资本成本( K e、WACC) 也是影响证券行业上市公司价值的重要因素。

关键词：公司价值评估股利折现模型经济增加值模型

Abstract

After more than 20 year s o f deve lopment, Ch ina’s cap i t a l marke t has become an impor tan t par t o f the na t iona l econo my,and enhances the v i ta l i t y o f econo mic deve lopment. As a main media of the marke t,the s ecur i t i es companies a re p l ay ing a ve ry impor tan t ro le in the cour se o f cu l t iva t ing and develop ing our cap i ta l marke t, which have prospec ts o f deve lopment.I t’s impor tan t fo r the i nves tor s who want to captu re inves tment oppor tun i t i es in the secur i t i es indus t ry,eva lua t ing the in t r ins ic va lue of secur i t i es f i rms, and compar ing the inves t ing ob jec t s.

In th i s paper,the au thor se lec t s CITIC Secur i t i e s Co., L td.(the re inaf te r re f er red to a s CITIC Secur i t i es)and Hai tong Secur i t i e s Co.,Ltd.(there inaf te r re fe r red to as Hai tong Secur i t i es)fo r the s tudy. CITIC Secur i t i es and Ha i tong Secur i t i e s a re l i s t e d companies in the secur i t i es indus t ry，and the i r core bus iness a r e secur i t i es b rokerage, underwr i t ing and secur i t i es inves tment,th e eva lua t ion of the compan ies has d i f fe ren t charac te r i s t i cs wi th other l i s t ed companies in genera l indus t r i e s.

In th i s paper,a top-down r e sea rch method was used to compare and ana lysi s bo th the in t r ins ic va lue o f secur i t i es companies and the com pet i t iveness o f the s i tuat ion. F i r s t o f a l l, the t ex t ou t l ined the deve lopment background,s t a tus and t rends of the secur i t i e s indus t ry in which the two companies a re opera t ing and poin ted ou t tha t the securi t i es companies should face oppor tun i t i e s and r i sks by judg ing s t a tus o f the secur i t i es indus t ry as wel l as China’s macro-econo mics. Second, quant i t a t ive ana lys i s means as f i nanc ia l ana lys i s m odel, d iv idend d i scount model and econo mic va l ue-added model a re mainly used to fu l ly revea l the two l i s ted com panies wi th the indus t r y's f inanc ia l condi t ion a nd in t r ins ic va lue. Fina l ly,the paper d raw a conc lus ion tha t CITIC Secur i t i es i s more va luable than Hai tong Secur i t i es,and the conclus ion was based on t he r e su l t s tha t CITIC Secur i t i es were s ign i f ican t ly be t te r than Hai tong Secur i t i e s in com par i son on the hea l th of f inanc ia l s t a te as wel l as on the d iv idend d i scoun t va lua t ion and econo mic va lue added valua t ion.

The paper ana lys i s tha t excep t the th ree e l ements wh ich a f fec ted the core compet i t iveness o f the f i rms(the s t r a teg ic v i s i on and implementa t ion of management t a len t and s t rong bus iness core,a s t rong and sus t a inab le sources o f cap i tal to s t reng then,